Santa Anita Park - 10/31 and 11/1

Friday:

race 1

OC40K N1X F&M 3YO and Up *6.5F (Downhill Turf)

4 WP

12/1 ml.  recency, late speed, pattern, distance.  swinging for the fences right out of the gate here in this full field of twelve down that hill.  this field in my view is filled with some gals that can be sketchy in the lane, long layoffs absent intriguing returns to the races to me, and some gals that look headed the wrong way.  what i like about this 4YO is absent two spins (synthetic in inglewood two turns high dollar stake and wet dirt in Arcadia two turns stake) she brings some nice late energy and keeps trying hard.  last out not all that bad ran a 78 two turns on the green moving nicely late.  all three times on the hill she has been eating up ground in the lane.  has fired fresh before as well and i like that she's been off since 8/24 (sporadic drills could be an issue or could be feels she is fit enough doesn't need many recorded drills you decide skipper 18% off this type of break).  ran an 82 off the pine on the hill which is very competitive here.  fairly lightly raced could inch forward a smidge off the pine and back to the hill.  i'm taking a shot with her to sit back and try to mow them down late.  0.75 units. 

11 scares me here i expect her to end up the fav very consistent on the hill.  has a bit of mileage under her this year and frequent racing can she bring her best Friday?  full field and variance i'll try and beat her.  i think they'll chase this 8 as well she has an 85 on the board but that was in April on a sloppy strip where nobody made up any ground.  why did she go away off a big win and first time down the hill i'll fade her as well.  few others with "back class/form" but recency looks iffy.  we shall see big field should be very competitive on the wire. 

race 2 - passing.  don't like those dirt marathons and don't feel like capping it.  tons of races Friday/Saturday.

friday:

Looking to play races 1, 3, 4, 5 (iffy/maybe), 6, 7 (iffy/maybe), 8, and 9 (iffy/maybe).

Not thrilled with the Dirt Mile and Distaff in terms of opportunity as of right now.

saturday:

Looking to play races 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12.

Might have a few higher unit plays to include one Friday.  Also might take a big swing at late P4 Saturday but we'll see how it goes. 

race 3

Non-Graded Stakes 200K Fillies (Cal Bred) 2YO 7F

9 WP

8/1 ml.  recency, late speed, distance, stamina, pattern.  taking a stab here unless the strip has an absurd bias i'm projecting the distance really opens up this race.  like the kinda sorta gradual improvement for this little bum girl two back some improvement back to dirt and from off the pace little cutesie 5.5F spin (the fig sucked but like the effort and "bumped break, bold late move").  last out ran a 70 going 6.5F which i view as very important here settling and wearing down her foe late.  i'm projecting she can handle this 7/8ths better than the others and the outside slot helps her as well.  on pace she should be able to be within striking range at the quarter pole IF she fires.  six weeks since that last with two easy stamina maintenance drills which i like as well she looks fit and ready.  i'll try her not expecting anything spectacular just get involved and wear them down late at 7/8ths.  0.75 units. 

this race here i see the peeps pounding this 4 maybe to 3/5 and i hope they do.  daddy says she'll go further but i'm willing to make her prove it to me.  has 79 and 73 last two so they'll drool over those but both on the polyfluff.  two back looked to me she was all hands on deck and that was 5.5F.  last out nipped late going 6F.  7 makes some sense stretching out but last out she was kinda all out to get up in a race where the 5 and 1 struggled late going 3/4's.  i'm taking a stab 9 stalk/pounce and grind it out certainly not in track record setting time. 

race 4

G2 3YO 9F (Turf)

2 WP

8/1 ml.  recency, late speed, pattern, stamina.  taking another shot here in this race another twelve horse field though this one has a heavy chalkie in the 11.  projecting 1 and 12 to bang heads out front a few behind them at a legit clip creating potential opportunity for horses well off the pace at this distance on this surface.  like the pattern on this 2.  pretty fresh off the plane into a solid G2 down south he jogged around in the back and kicked it in late in a race where the cheap pace up front kept going untouched.  off for two months with three nice maintenance drills in october and pointed to this.  strip out the last three figs on the chalkie (i'm not sold on those) and this motherfukker is very wide open.  i'm looking for this guy to be a little more involved earlier and see what he's got late in the lane.  looks fit and ready and should be doing his best work late.  1.00 units. 

mentioned how i see it as wide open and if you look at this particular distance (or even 8.5F) aside from the chalkie nobody is running dominating figs and they don't all finish strongly either.  so this chalkie ran 95, 100, and 96 last three so he's a lock i guess why swing against him?  maybe he is maybe he isn't.  two of those the turf was wet and the last was so slow i find it difficult to believe it was truly as fast as a 96 on turf implies.  perhaps more importantly he's been very busy this year and now ships out west how much is left inside of him?  i'll fade and find out.  aside from him could be a major scramble here i want a guy that's full of energy late so hopefully this 2 gets his behind in gear sooner this time. 

use covers to jot down my notes on the Classic since lots of thoughts float through my head over the two days and I'm still disgusted with myself from last year.  i liked WTC, the euro, and Flat Out in that order and played Flat Out who didn't fire late and the other two ran huge.  i thought Mucho would weaken late under the heat and I was wrong.  so, maybe this year I can at least stick with my instincts win or lose.  also, in the event of increased inquisitiveness given the high profile weekend this explains how i prefer to embrace variance as opposed to trying to defeat variance by playing the fav in every race . . . . . . . if one has the willingness to read between the lines:

1 - having difficulty embracing a scenario where he wins.  nice horse that cashes some checks he's not a strong closer and he can't wire them he kinda plugs his way around there.  highest fig at FG long time ago prolly a garbage fig anyways without accelerating late i'm not sure how he would win even if the race completely fell apart.  i'm tossing presuming he simply can't kick it in late enough to win this particular race.

2 - everyone is looking for a new lifetime top from this fella and i can see that happening but will that be enough???  has run 104 once and 101 three times.  he's a 5YO yet lightly raced.  3rd back from long layoff even if he improves with better fitness and distance can he run a 110 on this surface at this distance?  i'm not sure.  but he's pretty interesting since he could improve and he can sit close he doesn't need a miracle from way out in left field.  i'm projecting a good effort from him.  if bayern and moreno beat each other to a pulp he should have a nice opportunity at the top of the lane.  win?  tough call. 

3 - career tops are 107 on polyfluff (kinda clunked up race was over) and a 107 at charlestown which i don't put a lot of faith in.  he's inconsistent.  he doesn't pick it up late.  this may not be his best distance.  he could be quite a ways out of it at the quarter pole.  this is his tenth spin this year so i ask myself will he muster up his all time best after an arduous campaign - not likely.  i have to toss him. 

4 - he has not shown the ability to relax and pass horses.  his best chance to win is to try and wire this field and given this is the BC Classic i don't see why we won't see an all hands on deck effort trying to do that.  problem is Bayern can show a little more early and middle pace.  this is also his 8th spin this year and almost all of them were facing legit horses and he tends to do all the hard work up front.  how much energy doe she have left at this point?  3/22 shows you he can't fire every time.  if bayern crumbles early he could maybe win if nobody else fires big.  i'm leaning to projecting him to go all in but fold late. 

5 - this horse is intriguing because a) i think he might have more to show us, b) toss his last roughed up and jock packed it in he tends to keep trying and plugging away, and c) he has the distance/stamina capability for this.  the problem is good lord how far back will he be?  at the half mile pole this guy could potentially be quite a ways back.  can he make a monstrous move home from there?  if this race crumbles up late he could be charging home.  bold placement maybe he's feeling good.  not sure what to do with him yet.

6 - chalkie here might be 4/5 on the board facing thirteen other horses going 10F on natural dirt.  aside from the lunacy of accepting that price facing these circumstances is he really superman as many seem to think?  he loves to win he's undefeated no doubt about it.  he can sit fairly close and pounce.  he already won at 10F pretty easily facing older.  this is his fifth this year and 3rd of the form cycle so maybe he's got more to show us.  but, what i'm curious about is what number can he run on natural dirt at this distance.  he ran twice on dirt at 9F and ran 104 and 101.  he ran a 115 on polyfluff and clearly seems to love synth in general.  if he runs 104ish here i can't sit here and say he'll win.  i'm not sold he moves forward with this distance/surface.  i know they say he had the worst trip in the world last out and it wasn't easy but he also kinda looked like he needed a top effort to get up.  i'm leaning to taking my chances this race does not produce his best ever.

7 - folded on the lead trying 10F at the Spa.  crumbled at 9.5F in balty maybe just not his day.  has run 110, 111, and 108 on three different surfaces and i definitely respect that.  haskell prolly aided by strip and modest field.  nice slot in the middle and can edge Moreno out front if he wants to after a clean break.  pace edge in this particular race.  distance an enormous question if he takes some heat.  if left untouched he might run all day for all we know.  very dangerous if he breaks and fires and is all alone.  on my P4 for these reasons. 

8 - nice horse here trainer has done outstanding work here i'm curious if we have already seen his ceiling.  if he was faster wouldn't he have shown it in the Woodward or JCGC?  paired up 103s last two.  he won't be a million lengths back but he might be ten back at the half mile pole.  is he explosive enough to come all the way up?  i think he will fire and try hard i just don't know if he's good enough . . . . . but if it totally crumbles he may in fact be stumbling home to grab something.  not sure yet on him. 

9 - everyone on the planet can see he loves synth and never been on dirt so why on earth is he here?  of course the trainer will say he loves dirt.  maybe he does maybe he doesn't.  i'm pretty intrigued.  two spins on the green with juice on it he didn't like it.  every other time he fired and tried hard.  looks very competitive on distance/stamina.  had to check last out significantly in the lane.  spruced up and pointed to this 3YO with seven spins maybe he's got more to offer.  also in the pacific classic he was up close so if he takes to the surface might be in a nice spot top of the lane.  very interesting.  on my P4. 

10 - definitely likes arcadia and has a win at this distance/surface (OC N1X six horse field).  last out had every opportunity to win just could not get going enough.  fairly lightly raced 4YO second off here off a new top and stretching out I can come up with angles to say he'll fire his best yet but even then is that enough.  i'm not convinced he is good enough.  total meltdown up front and he keeps grinding away maybe but there's fourteen here certainly possible someone else can beat him home.  i'm tossing if he kills me oh well. 

11 - loves belmont that's for sure.  has run so so away from there.  three races at belmont tell me he'll be fine with this distance but the two at the Spa tell me he's very even late.  this is his ninth of the year does he have his best yet in him or did he leave that last out in the JCGC.  he can win if he fires because he's competitive on figs and he gives you an honest effort i just don't see him with a big move forward here because we would have already seen that in either the JCGC or Travers.  will be tough to keep him off my P4. 

Much appreciated, atlas.  Hoping you like the 12 on your P4. 

Good Luck this weekend Atlas

12 - this horse is intriguing here but it all comes down to will he improve or regress with the added distance.  tried 10F in louisville but a) he was very legitimately assaulted in that race, and b) his recency heading in was iffy.  he's much sharper now.  kinda sorta improving.  has upside here but has not yet run good enough to win this no doubt about it needs his best to come here.  all three since the derby he kept trying hard the whole time which i like.  if the field melts in front of him he may keep plugging away. tough call.  i might use him.  should be a big bomb on the board but with much more potential to improve than other huge bombs. 

13 - the recency here concerns me along with the pattern.  earlier in the year he was getting better with added distance and smoking those fields.  i'm not sure he's as fast/good as that 108, 107, and 105 imply but i certainly could be wrong.  i understand last was off the bench but he sucked bad in that race.  to play him i have to hope for an "all of a sudden" huge reversal in form.  i'm likely tossing him and taking my chances.  the way i look at it even if he returns to his best he still has to beat thirteen others and by the way a few of them are not cupcakes. 

good to see you pal.  good luck this weekend

this late P4 is very, very, very difficult.  some may claim the Turf (race 9) is "not that hard" or even the Classic because of SB but not me.  all four look very open to me. 

same to you  i'll certainly try.  can't complain about lack of opportunity. 

14 - this horse ran a 111 earlier in the year same surface/distance and i applaud him for that.  he took advantage of the scenario and was sharp and smoked a G1.  totally different here.  i'm concerned with his recency and pattern.  didn't fire in his last two.  post position i don't care about since they have tons of room breaking way back there going 10F.  6/25 lifetime and that 111 just jumps out as way, way out of his pattern i'm tossing him i don't see him sitting on his best.  lots of small layoffs he's never strung together three starts let alone good ones. 

15 - if he draws in crazy as it sounds i might use him at 75/1.  he received a very strange ride last out but he must have been sent out there to that race for a reason.  could get cocky and confident near the front if in.  look, he's an enormous longshot but if he sneaks in his pace gives him more of a shot than some others. 

 gl shrugger

thanks bro.  same to you

race 9

G1 F&M 3YO and Up 9F

4 WP

6/1 ml.  recency, pace, distance, stamina.  might on paper look like she runs better around one turn and "needs the lead" but i don't think that's the case.  taking a stab here i'm not convinced the heavy chalkies here fire their best.  like that delaware race in that she picked up the zip late at 10F and like the last just an easy spin with three drills after and ships out for her toughest challenge yet.  on figs she's very competitive here, can sit quite close, and has shown she has plenty of gas late at this distance.  i'm giving her a chance to try and run away with this as they straighten up and head home.  0.75 units. 

wasn't sure about this one but the more i looked felt it might kinda fall into the 4's lap IF she fires and if hatches struggles which i think is entirely possible though obviously not certain.  if she's relaxed and chilly she might be able to turn on the gas late here so we shall see.  if she gets whacked on the tote my mood might change

Update here:  probably not a higher bet Friday but maybe one above 1.00 depending on tote in a certain race.  the 9 scratched from race 6 and i really, really liked him quite a bit and expected 12/1ish.  was going to play 3-4 units.  why?  comments from that last didn't do him justice i expected an explosion getting more ground and firm.   oh well.  pattern was setting up for a real nice one given the circumstances

still in race 6.  see ya tomorrow fellas.  gonna be some toughies

Atlas, BOL this weekend Bud.