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August Stock Discussion

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Legend
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Posted: #76
should be DJII down 170
 
Legend
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Posted: #77
well they tried to lift them going into the last hour but failed SO probably lower tomarrow.
 
going to look for entry points for LVS and MGM for the next leg up. MGM could be close to some support here around $8 BUT could also break down. then it could get wacked to the $6 area or even retest the july lows.
 
LVS looks like $11 or $10 BUT I wouldn't short it. just too damn dangerous with their bullshit manipulation. I would probably go long IF I see $10 again.
 
both of these still have OODLES of shorts so ANY + news can run them like lLVS last thursday.
 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #78
I dunno..

There wasnt real selling pressure, the VIX is barely moving, no real fear out there. The talk is "we were due for a drop" so until they crack some skulls and start some strong selling, I consider this little more than a light trading down day.
 
Legend
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Posted: #79
freeking classic. they couldn't get out of the gamers fast enough monday BUT right back UP tuesday. even that bitch MGM has bounced off that $8 and WYNN is up even though Steve and Elaine Wynn sold 2 million shares because of their upcoming divorce.
 
it's the damn Freddy Kruger market
 
Banned
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Posted: #80
Wall-

Not sure if you have interest, but got a tip the other day on a penny stock (CCTR).  The source has put out a few homeruns in the past (as well as a few turds).  In each case, the opportunity to cash out was there.  You guys have a good group, figured I'd pass it along.

Bol regardless of what you do!

ps I have nothing to do with the financial industry

  
 
Legend
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Posted: #81
got a tip the other day on a penny stock (CCTR).
 
1 for 400 reverse split back in 2001 and another 1 for 25 reverse this may? leaves only 5 million shares out SO I guess IF they wanted to bullshit the stock it COULD run BUT with all their name changes I would suspect it's a fraud.
 
but of course IF your one the RIGHT SIDE of the fraud, you can make a LOT of
 
good luck.
 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #82
When companies pay PR firms to pump them up you know it is a sleezy situation-

link

5M shares is it and the stock is 7 cents?-

The Company has recently been listed on the Regulation SHO threshold security list indicating a possible short squeeze. In an on-demand Webcast scheduled for Friday, August 21 to review China Crescent's second quarter results, management will include a discussion of the possible short squeeze and how the covering of short positions identified by Regulation SHO could support a price per share movement toward the Company's previously announced suggested fair value target pps of $0.30.

No offense but...


 
Captain
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Posted: #83
Yep.. and sleazy when companies do reverse stock splits, too.
Does nothing at all to change the fundamentals of a company.
 
Captain
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Posted: #84
Market seems to ignore any negative data on the consumer.
13% of all mortgages in the U.S. are either delinquent or in foreclosure.  


 
Rookie
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Posted: #85
Quote Originally Posted by Rush51:

Market seems to ignore any negative data on the consumer.
13% of all mortgages in the U.S. are either delinquent or in foreclosure.  



Yup... the market is essentially ignoring reality right now and looking forward.  I think after labor day when the adults come back will pull the market back.
 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #86
Added more FAZ at 23.75
 
Legend
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Posted: #87
interesting day for the gamers on this "Bernanke Bounce" friday. the "Macau Monsters" of WYNN and LVS are up good percentages BUT the rest are flat to down with MGM actually doing a "snaproll" from it's early high just over 9 to down on the day (low of 8.50).
 
don't know WHO is fixin' to get fucked here but I sure don't trust this move.
 
and btw, I think Bernanke is full of shit with his "recession ending" baloney. maybe in mother fucking China where all the manufacturing jobs are but sure NOT in the U S of A.
 
Legend
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Posted: #88

was a great comment about this news item on BB's speech.....

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/we-saved-the-world-from-disaster-bernanke-says-2009-08-21-10100

 

"I wish these modern day robber barons would stop patting themselves on the back for averting the crisis. These f****** people CAUSED IT TO BEGIN WITH." 

 
All-Star
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Posted: #89
There's a number of countries around the world now that have come out of the recession.
 
It's expected the US will be added to this list in 3rd quarter of 2009, looking at the GDP chart at barrons.com shows it turned negative the 3rd quarter 2008 and got worse in the 4th and peaked to the downside in the 1st quarter 2009, over 6%, at the same time the stock market was free-falling in jan. and feb.
 
The 2cd quarter 2009 is expected down 1% which I believe comes out next week thursday.
 
I think it's expected 3% growth for 3rd quarter 2009. 
 
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Posted: #90
Taking a look at the P&E Ratio of the S&P 500 at barrons.com, based on earnings estamites looking forward 12 months, it's at 16.81.
 
In 2007 with the market at it's peak the P&E ratio of the S&P 500 was around 30.
 
To put that in perspective I think the average over history is about 17.
 
Stocks are not that expensive relative to history.
 
When you consider that tech consistently produces higher P&E ratio's, and since the tech boom of the 1990's the P&E ratio of the S&P 500 has been higher than over history, what we have now is a below average P&E ratio of the S&P 500, in other words stocks are still cheap even at these levels.
 
This is not a bear rally, as long as news continues to get better or at least remain mixed and not take a turn for the worst  we are highly likely to go up from here.
 
Veteran
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Posted: #91
A couple of weeks old,macroeconomic, interesting nonetheless...

https://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2009e.htm


 
Veteran
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Posted: #92
Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

Added more FAZ at 23.75


I don't get this given how things are progressing right now. The bears had their chance this week to capitalize on that down Monday, and still, they got their heads ripped off.

This market is poised to keep surging higher. Everyone can kick and scream that the fundamentals don't support the ramp up, but if there's one rule every trader should know it's: You do NOT fight the momentum of the market. It has become a largely manipulative (and thus irrational) being, so what's the point of hopping into the FAZmobile?

This market's ticking higher, fundamentals be damned. It's already proven as such. And, I don't have to tell you Wall Street that FAZ is intended to be a swing-trade, to be held no longer than a week. I think you're asking for trouble averaging into it the way you are.

Just my two cents.
 
Legend
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Posted: #93
hate to say it BUT I agree with PistolPete. I ate a two dime loss awhle back in some QID after suffering with that bitch for over a month. had a down day like monday and used it to unload and sure glad I did or that two dimes would be even worse now.
 
as Marty Zweig, who was a frequent guest on the late Louis Rukeyser's "Wall Street Week" show, on PBS used to say "Don't Fight the Tape and Don't Fight the Fed"
 
Veteran
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Posted: #94
Wall must be right as I agree with both of you above.

That being said, this uptrend is nothing special in terms of past bear market rallies.

 I have more problems with the vehicle than the idea...after reading all I cared to regarding them, I see serious disadvantages to these funds.



 
Veteran
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Posted: #95
Quote Originally Posted by Vermeer:

Wall must be right as I agree with both of you above.

That being said, this uptrend is nothing special in terms of past bear market rallies.

 I have more problems with the vehicle than the idea...after reading all I cared to regarding them, I see serious disadvantages to these funds.





That's just it, Vermeer. FAZ and FAS and all these 3X ETFs are a fool's game. They are meant to be swing-trades, NOT investments. You DO NOT hold them as long or they will burn you. The closest analogy I think I can give is that they're the equivalent of hitting 51% in sports betting. An outside observer might say, "Great you're in the money." But as we all know the juice kills you. And that's what's in play with these 3X etf's. Because they reset everyday, you're left with severely diminished returns. FAZ and FAS depend on serious volatility. If you don't get that, and you hover around the same baseline for 6 months, they'll gang rape you.
 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #96
Well lets just say Ive seen this setup so many times that I feel good enough that I am willing to take the risk.

Summer trading is nothing to bank on, small dollar figures spent on SPX futures can move the markets like crazy.

I am not looking for a 50 bagger here, rather my feeling is that they will sell the market come Labor Day and given that feeling and the move in the financials to this point, I think the odds are at my favor.

The trade isnt a large percentage of my overall portfolio, but I can sniff a rat out and this rally smells like a rat to me.

I like the higher beta trades, those who have seen me trade in the past know this..so it isnt for people who are risk adverse at all.

I could be completely wrong and I could get killed on the trade, but given the run in the financials and the underlying risks STILL out there, plus the way they have run this market non-stop for all summer, lets just say those who have invested over a decade know how these things normally end up reversing after Labor Day.
 
Veteran
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Posted: #97
To be clear, I don't disagree with you at all there are serious, fundamental issues underlying the banking sector.  There's still a lot of trash on their balance sheets that is being propped up by all the excess liquidity.

But I can't tell you how many times I've heard the exact same reasoning that you espouse. This is a volume-less rally. It will all end by Labor Day. This is what everyone, everywhere thinks. The uber-bears have clung to this line of reasoning as markets have surged higher.

I can't give you any reasoning based on fundamentals that will convince you this run ends soon. What I do know is that there are way too many in the "this ends by Labor day" camp.

Wall,  even if you are right, and this run starts to reverse by, say, mid-September, you will have a lot of ground to make up on your FAZ investment. And more importantly, when we get this retrace, for your FAZ bet to pay off, you need a steep run downward. You can't afford for the pullback to come in the form of a 6-month gradual decline. You need a two-week plunge for FAZ to pay off. Otherwise, you're headed for disaster.
 
Veteran
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Posted: #98
And with the Federal government clearly determined to prop up big banks, why bother betting against them? At this point, big banks failing seems less likely than the dollar being replaced by the Amero.
 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #99
Check the balance sheets and stock performance on most financials.

Nearly all financials are at levels they were a year ago, which erases all the drop we had from the near-fatal implosion and are back to where we were pre-LEH.

Now..check the balance sheets and see what has changed.

GS increased common float by almost 20%, so has BAC increased by almost 50% and WFC is up by 50%. Liabilities across the board have increased and outpaced stockholders equity. Most all firms have either dramatically increased preferred share count, or started a new preferred share count..some which are 10 times higher than the common count. (GS increased preferred by 5 times, JPM has 10 times more preferred shares than common, BAC upped preferred count by EIGHT times previous)

The point is that these moves in the stocks are on the back of large increases in common shares and implied preferred shares (some are convertible, others just pay out a fat divi) and THAT makes the valuations that much crazier.

In reality these banks could realistically retrace all the move and they would probably be properly valued and I think the smart money will take advantage and bring them down, and probably very quickly.

Check out the change in share counts and how the balance sheets are structured..goodwill and LTI counts etc.

Its not pretty..
 
 
Veteran
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Posted: #100
Wall,

I reiterate that I don't disagree with you on the fundamentals.

Your claim that "nearly all financials are at levels they were at a year ago" is blatantly false. All the major banks still have quite a bit of room to run to their yr ago levels.

To make money on FAZ, you need financials to retrace back to their nadirs.  This would result in a full-on Depression. And while I don't think the risk of Depression has been entirely averted as CNBC would have you believe, I think it has significantly been reduced. The work of BB, Geithner and the Administration, while not perfect, has been successful generally speaking.

You can sit here and lecture me all day on the porous state of the financial sector. I DO NOT disagree with you. But this is what EVERYONE knows already. You're assuming that everyone thinks the stress tests were the real deal.

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