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***DRYS Thread***

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Veteran
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Posted: #101
Are DRYS earnings Tuesday?  I thought I heard that.  Would make for an interesting day. 
 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #102
VH2,

I dunno..will check but damn if the stock isnt in the total dumper while all the others are hanging in there nicely.

GNK at 20 and DRYS at 6, what a joke.

Cape and pana rates are getting better, a bit more up and 1Q earnings will be pretty good.
 
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Posted: #103
Well there is a lot of uncertainty right now with the stock.  The following things need to be cleared up . . . and until they do I think this one is going to languish:
  • Total Debt
  • Shares Outstanding / Shelf Offering
  • Cash on Hand
  • Loan Covenants
  • Future UDW Rig Delivery
There is no point in me getting out now so I will continue to hold.  It hurts to see all of their competitors thrive.  I am hoping these items or at least a few of them are cleared up during the 4Q08 conference call.  George needs to come out and clear everything up.  Who knows if he will.  I think if a few of them are you will see the stock jump.  Right now no one really knows what to think or expect and the stock is getting punished for it. 

Hopefully if dilution is occurring he explains exactly what the cash is being used for (debt or rigs?) 

Going to be interesting.  Hopefully for the better. 



 
Covers Rehab
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Posted: #104
I agree holdem
 
Prospect
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Posted: #105
I nimbled at drys today 3700 shares. It seems so unfair that gnk is at $21 when drys is sector leader and is at under $7

I dont see too much downside risk here really. the upside is huge. after earnings It will be clear as to how DRYS is valued. but 1/3 the price of GNK doesnt seem right to me.



 
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Posted: #106
BDI closing in on 2000 . . . I guess we are due for some pullback but this run is very encouraging for the sector. 
 
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Posted: #107
VH2,

Nothing but good news for the stock and group, yet they sell it off..beats me and makes no sense.

SPOT rates are profitable now, making money... 1Q numbers should be a huge improvement..it is being choked by shorts and they need to get scared to cover and move the stock...
 
Prospect
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Posted: #108
Walls

you are very correct about the short they will need to cover soon. when we dont know but they will thats a given.

i added another 4k yesterday around $5.32 and another 500 today 4.87

i would like to add more here but i want to wait if it breaks the 4.80 range and heads lower i rather get a lot of real cheap shares than get my average stuck in the high 5's and it move against me .

today should give us alot of clarity as too whats going on with drys, dilution wise and spin-off wise. i still beleive GE is a good business man (he is shady too but) and will keep drys the leader in dry bulk shipping.

only thing about the bdi is the panamaxs are still low compared to everything else and drys has about 14 i think on spot. BDI is very bullish and i'd rather park my money here than anything us wise chinas commodity needs are not going to slump as bad as the us economy is going too.

 
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Posted: #109
Yep..

The low PANA rates relative to Capes makes me think Capes come in...the other interesting thing is Supra are at the same level as PANA and have been performing better lately.

The drop lately is the charters defaulting..it should be less with these rates going up and the BDI is only at 2k, historic rates should be more like 3-4k..

Another issue is if this move up in the BDI retraces, if it holds and doesnt drop back, it could move up even MORE in the spring and summer.
 
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Posted: #110
Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

Yep..

The low PANA rates relative to Capes makes me think Capes come in...the other interesting thing is Supra are at the same level as PANA and have been performing better lately.

The drop lately is the charters defaulting..it should be less with these rates going up and the BDI is only at 2k, historic rates should be more like 3-4k..

Another issue is if this move up in the BDI retraces, if it holds and doesnt drop back, it could move up even MORE in the spring and summer.


I looked at the chart . . . so historically spring and summer rates are stronger (more demand)?
 
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Posted: #111
VH2,

yeah usually the summer and spring are better, but who the crap knows this time around..lol
 
Prospect
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Posted: #112
when the hell are they announcing earnings ??? i had feb 11 and then seen feb 12 and now hear feb 25 WTF is going on here. i dont like this shit 1 bit. investors shouldnt have to wonder when information is being disclosed especially important information like dilution and a huge spin-off dividend.

without some news from DRYS it will be stuck trading here or it could even go lower.
 
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Posted: #113
WLD,

I thought it wasnt for a while, thats why Ive said I had no idea..usually they drag late into the cycle.

I dont see the spin happening soon if at all, the stock price is too low and the sector isnt performing well. Now SBLK slices the dividend and SB the other day said some negative things.

Now is a good time to get long if you arent..they are selling everything off into the face of improving BDI numbers, negociations of covenants etc..its well worth the risk.

Of course banks dont want to be ship owners and the issue about loan covenants isnt as dramatic as it seems. What we need is the BDI to get high enough that some of these second tier charters stop defaulting and some normalicy returns to the group.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #114
I'm getting long. 10k so far @ about 5.75 . holding off on adding just incase the 4.75 support breaks, which i dont think it should but i want to be able to average down if necessary.

DRYS is the industry leader and i have faith that GE will keep it that way.
 
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Posted: #115
added another 1k today. i think drys has 1 more day of selloff to test the lows and then it reverses.

i read on a message board that drys was announcing on the 19th after hours but i dont thin its true. i hope they announce before feb 25 though.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #116
Whats on Feb 25th? I got back in 2 days ago for 3.95.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #117
earnings on the 25th


I hope drys sells off early tomorrow. i gonna load up i think option expiration has alot to do with its price. i added some today at 3.57

this stock will atleast double from here within a month.
 
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Posted: #118
DRYS up 5% 
DOW - 100pts

options players cashed their puts and closed up some shorts. the BULL run in drys is coming i can feel it.

I'm gonna add a few 1000 shares monday morning premarket. I have faith now that options are outta the way that drys will be going back up. i think we formed the bottom already and bounced off it.
 
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Posted: #119
Buying options myself to play this cheaper
 
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Posted: #120
I read the attached Motley Fool article on DRYS . . . what are people's thoughts on this:

https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2009/02/23/this-just-in-upgrades-and-downgrades.aspx

I see this article as being horrible news . . . for one reason and one reason only.  That being the share dilution. Two questions:

1) How would Oppenheimer know where DRYS is in the current shelf offering process if it is taking place now?
2) If they are only half way through isn't that terrible news?  Does that not mean that we are looking at 100 to 125 million new shares?  Bringing the total outstanding to 175 million to 200 million shares?  That is awful.
3) finally where would they know that the CEO sold shares today?  I looked all over and saw no filings . . . . another red flag.  Why sell at $4?

Sigh . . . no reason for me to sell at this price, however I am concerned about adding after reading this article.  This being said . . . why would the above news be "good" news and mean an upgrade?


 
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Posted: #121
VH2

the upgrade tells you more than the oppenheimer article. they mentioned dilution is almost over. i watched drys trading daily and to me it has been getting diluted daily for about 3 weeks now. i dont believe their sold @ an average of $4. i think it will come in around $6 (80-90million shares added)

the bottom half of the fool article is more on the money. DRYS cash flow and now generating cash to relax covenants with banks will throw out all the bankruptcy bs talk. drys will survive and take over as the leader in dry-bulk shipping again.

I bought 3k today (4.08) intra-day. the premarket open with it up to high for my liking.  i thought it would hold $4 all day so i didnt add on the bottom of the day  but im happy with  3000 more at $4. this stock will atleast double from here within a month.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #122
read this thread on drys value and you'll be happy you got drys at these prices.

https://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_D/threadview?m=tm&bn=24683&tid=282690&mid=282690&tof=2&frt=1
 
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Posted: #123
Sorry but I HIGHLY doubt he has been selling like these guys say.

WHY would he sell down here, what bank put the vice on George to make him do this?

I dont get why any one bank would DEMAND 500M in cash in order to keep loan covenents in place when George has said that they are working WITH the other banks to negociate a waiver in the short term.

Who knows..really, until I hear it from George I wont buy this, mainly because every share issuance negociation has been at higher prices and he has said SEVERAL times that he and Cardiff arent selling and all negociated terms were for 30 plus and higher, so why sell down here?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #124
walls

I dont see how they arent selling down here. the price movment looks like its being diluted.  I am getting pissed i thought their earnings with on the 25th afterhours. Now i have no idea, this is the 3rd date i have gotten from etrade and other sources, 11, 12, 25th and now it looks like its getting pushed back. I really dont like the sound of this.
 
 
Rookie
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Posted: #125
Im in at 3.81. Im hoping for a decent ride up today and sell or for a good earnings report
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