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    All Forums | Investments

    February Stock Talk !!

    «First Previous 12345 Next Last»
    wallstreetcappers
    Vermeer
    Gunners
    jaxwhitey
    depeche2
    ...
    Participants:
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    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Feb. 14, 2008 - 4:28 PM ET #26

    Gunners,

    Nope..but the real valuation on a growing stock with 2 bucks in earnings is NOT 90 bucks.

    I think fair value is a 30 PE which makes current valuation at 60.

    Someone I talk with owns it and I cannot go against people who I talk/discuss stocks with.

    It doesnt shock me one bit though.

    Waiting on DRYS earnings..supposed to be out already.
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    Gunners,

    Nope..but the real valuation on a growing stock with 2 bucks in earnings is NOT 90 bucks.

    I think fair value is a 30 PE which makes current valuation at 60.

    Someone I talk with owns it and I cannot go against people who I talk/discuss stocks with.

    It doesnt shock me one bit though.

    Waiting on DRYS earnings..supposed to be out already.
     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Feb. 14, 2008 - 5:46 PM ET #27

    DRYS hits 4.50 on numbers, over 5 and change including a gain on sale for a vessel.

    I wish you guys had followed, the stock is going over 100 soon.

    Up 7 in after hours.




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    DRYS hits 4.50 on numbers, over 5 and change including a gain on sale for a vessel.

    I wish you guys had followed, the stock is going over 100 soon.

    Up 7 in after hours.




     
    Vermeer
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    Posted: Feb. 14, 2008 - 5:58 PM ET #28

    The gap between real consumer spending in recent years and real earnings has been filled by home equity loans and cash-out refinancing. In addition, homeowners have viewed their housing as continually self-filling piggy banks that will cover all future savings needs.

    [Yet] home equity as a source of funding is falling fast and will disappear for most with our expected 25% fall in house prices. Home equity, after all mortgage debt is removed, has fallen from 70% of the average house's market value in the early 1980s to 50% [now].

    Furthermore, house price declines are having widespread effects since, in contrast to stocks, home ownership is widely dispersed. About 50% of Americans own stocks or mutual funds, but 68% own their own abodes. And in recent years, home ownership has leaped among young, low-income and minority households-those with little or no additional net worth to cushion house price declines.

    The US recession will probably be major by post-World War II standards. We foresee a decline in real gross domestic product of 3.4% from the peak in the fourth quarter of 2007 to the fourth quarter of 2008. This would rank with the 3.7% decline in the 1957-1958 recession and the 3.1% fall in the 1973-1975 slump, the two most severe in the postwar era.

    expect consumer spending to fall by 1.6% from peak to trough. That may not sound like a lot, but it is compared to past recessions. In the 1957-1958 recession, consumer spending fell by only 0.6%. Similarly, in the deep 1973-1975 business decline, consumer outlays dropped 0.6%.

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    The gap between real consumer spending in recent years and real earnings has been filled by home equity loans and cash-out refinancing. In addition, homeowners have viewed their housing as continually self-filling piggy banks that will cover all future savings needs.

    [Yet] home equity as a source of funding is falling fast and will disappear for most with our expected 25% fall in house prices. Home equity, after all mortgage debt is removed, has fallen from 70% of the average house's market value in the early 1980s to 50% [now].

    Furthermore, house price declines are having widespread effects since, in contrast to stocks, home ownership is widely dispersed. About 50% of Americans own stocks or mutual funds, but 68% own their own abodes. And in recent years, home ownership has leaped among young, low-income and minority households-those with little or no additional net worth to cushion house price declines.

    The US recession will probably be major by post-World War II standards. We foresee a decline in real gross domestic product of 3.4% from the peak in the fourth quarter of 2007 to the fourth quarter of 2008. This would rank with the 3.7% decline in the 1957-1958 recession and the 3.1% fall in the 1973-1975 slump, the two most severe in the postwar era.

    expect consumer spending to fall by 1.6% from peak to trough. That may not sound like a lot, but it is compared to past recessions. In the 1957-1958 recession, consumer spending fell by only 0.6%. Similarly, in the deep 1973-1975 business decline, consumer outlays dropped 0.6%.

     
    Gunners
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    Posted: Feb. 14, 2008 - 6:18 PM ET #29

    DRYS!
     
    nice one!
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    DRYS!
     
    nice one!
     
    Vermeer
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    Posted: Feb. 14, 2008 - 10:00 PM ET #30


     Anything serious about this?

    New SEC rule means more than $35 billion in small-company shares could
    be unloaded Friday. "A shock to the system,' one expert predicts.

    Smaller companies that issued unregistered securities last year may be
    in for a bumpy ride this week. That's because on Friday, changes that
    the Securities and Exchange Commission made to Rule 144, which governs
    unregistered securities, go into effect, which could lead investors to
    dump billions of dollars worth of shares and send some companies'
    daily trading volumes to never-before-seen levels.

    https://www.financialweek.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080211/REG/...



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     Anything serious about this?

    New SEC rule means more than $35 billion in small-company shares could
    be unloaded Friday. "A shock to the system,' one expert predicts.

    Smaller companies that issued unregistered securities last year may be
    in for a bumpy ride this week. That's because on Friday, changes that
    the Securities and Exchange Commission made to Rule 144, which governs
    unregistered securities, go into effect, which could lead investors to
    dump billions of dollars worth of shares and send some companies'
    daily trading volumes to never-before-seen levels.

    https://www.financialweek.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080211/REG/...



     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Feb. 14, 2008 - 11:13 PM ET #31

    Of course Greenspam is late as usual, we are IN a recession and have been on the brink for 2 yrs.

    Greenspam is such an idiot..lucky he bailed right before the ship went down.


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    Of course Greenspam is late as usual, we are IN a recession and have been on the brink for 2 yrs.

    Greenspam is such an idiot..lucky he bailed right before the ship went down.


     
    Vermeer
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    Posted: Feb. 14, 2008 - 11:35 PM ET #32

    NEW YORK (Reuters) - Fear that a hobbled banking sector may set off another Great Depression could force the U.S. government and Federal Reserve to take the unprecedented step of buying a broad range of assets, including stocks, according to one of the most bearish market analysts.

    That extreme scenario, which would aim to stave off deflation and stabilize the economy, is evolving as the base case for Bernard Connolly, global strategist at Banque AIG in London.

    In the late 1980s and early 1990's Connolly worked for the European Commission analyzing the European monetary system in the run up to the introduction of the euro currency.

    "Avoiding a depression is, unfortunately, going to have to involve either a large, quasi-permanent increase in the budget deficit -- preferably tax cuts -- or restoring overvaluation of equity prices," Connolly said on Monday.

    "If conventional monetary policy is not enough to produce that result, the government may have to buy equities, financed by the Fed," Connolly said.

    Legal changes would be needed to give the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government the authority to buy stocks. Currently the Federal Reserve can buy only debt issued by the Treasury, as well as U.S. agency debentures and mortgage-backed securities.

    While Connolly already sees some parallels with the 1930s, he expects that a more pro-active central bank and government will probably help avert a repeat of that scenario today.

    The build up of a credit bubble in recent years was similar to the late 1920s run-up to the Great Depression, he said.

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    NEW YORK (Reuters) - Fear that a hobbled banking sector may set off another Great Depression could force the U.S. government and Federal Reserve to take the unprecedented step of buying a broad range of assets, including stocks, according to one of the most bearish market analysts.

    That extreme scenario, which would aim to stave off deflation and stabilize the economy, is evolving as the base case for Bernard Connolly, global strategist at Banque AIG in London.

    In the late 1980s and early 1990's Connolly worked for the European Commission analyzing the European monetary system in the run up to the introduction of the euro currency.

    "Avoiding a depression is, unfortunately, going to have to involve either a large, quasi-permanent increase in the budget deficit -- preferably tax cuts -- or restoring overvaluation of equity prices," Connolly said on Monday.

    "If conventional monetary policy is not enough to produce that result, the government may have to buy equities, financed by the Fed," Connolly said.

    Legal changes would be needed to give the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government the authority to buy stocks. Currently the Federal Reserve can buy only debt issued by the Treasury, as well as U.S. agency debentures and mortgage-backed securities.

    While Connolly already sees some parallels with the 1930s, he expects that a more pro-active central bank and government will probably help avert a repeat of that scenario today.

    The build up of a credit bubble in recent years was similar to the late 1920s run-up to the Great Depression, he said.

     
    Vermeer
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    Posted: Feb. 14, 2008 - 11:39 PM ET #33

    Greenie is a lagging indicator, and always has been ...

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    Greenie is a lagging indicator, and always has been ...

     
    jaxwhitey
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    Posted: Feb. 15, 2008 - 9:57 AM ET #34

    Has anyone figured out whats fueling this IDMI run?  It's still running up this morning.
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    Has anyone figured out whats fueling this IDMI run?  It's still running up this morning.
     
    Gunners
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    Posted: Feb. 15, 2008 - 10:13 AM ET #35

    yes, i know.

    Wall and I sold our IDMI yesterday, therefore it will go to 10, within 2 days. 

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    yes, i know.

    Wall and I sold our IDMI yesterday, therefore it will go to 10, within 2 days. 

     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Feb. 15, 2008 - 11:43 AM ET #36

    lol

    I have no idea, but based on possibilities for their main candidate, the stock is still undervalued here..and I have no position. Left 2k on the table..


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    lol

    I have no idea, but based on possibilities for their main candidate, the stock is still undervalued here..and I have no position. Left 2k on the table..


     
    Gunners
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    Posted: Feb. 15, 2008 - 12:11 PM ET #37

    based on the $3.48 tick of a second ago, i left $517 on the table.  ah well. 
     
    But yesterday, after i sold IDMI, i put it all straight into HANS, and HANS is up 5% today. 
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    based on the $3.48 tick of a second ago, i left $517 on the table.  ah well. 
     
    But yesterday, after i sold IDMI, i put it all straight into HANS, and HANS is up 5% today. 
     
    Vermeer
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    Posted: Feb. 15, 2008 - 12:14 PM ET #38

    In written testimony for a subcommittee of the House Committee on Financial Services, MBIA said that short sellers like Mr. Ackman, founder of the hedge fund Pershing Square Capital Management, have worked hard to undermine market confidence in the bond insurers.

    MBIA said lawmakers should help restore confidence in the bond insurers, because their failure could have far-reaching effects on the U.S. and global economies.

    In testimony that specifically targets Mr. Ackman, MBIA wrote that the House Subcommittee on Capital Markets should work with the Securities and Exchange Commission to curtail “the unscrupulous and dangerous market manipulation activities of short sellers,” trying to undermine market confidence in MBIA to drive the company’s share price to nearly zero.

    It said the practice and dissemination of “half-truths and misleading information” should be “investigated and curtailed,” and called on Congress to work on the matter with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

    MBIA also included as an appendix a timeline of actions by Mr. Ackman, and to a lesser extent by other short sellers.

    Mr. Ackman, who is also expected to testify before the committee Thursday, has persisted in challenging MBIA’s AAA credit rating for more than five years, saying MBIA hasn’t been forthcoming about backing risky financial instruments such as those based on loans to the least creditworthy homebuyers.

    And his efforts have not gone unrewarded. Mr. Ackman’s Pershing Square delivered a return of 22 percent to its investors in 2007, thanks in part to its bets that the stocks and bonds of MBIA and Ambac would fall, Bloomberg News reported.

    The war of the words comes as the three major U.S. credit rating agencies are deciding whether MBIA has enough funds to keep its AAA rating.

    Investors fear that a chain reaction of losses might rock the financial industry if even one big bond insurer were to lose its top credit rating. The concern is that MBIA and Ambac, which have guaranteed more than $1 trillion in municipal, corporate and mortgage debt, will not have the capital they will need to pay out claims as defaults rise.

    Many big banks and investors that hold mortgage securities guaranteed by the companies would have to write down the value of those investments if the insurers lose their top ratings. Those losses could total tens of billions of dollars for some banks.

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    In written testimony for a subcommittee of the House Committee on Financial Services, MBIA said that short sellers like Mr. Ackman, founder of the hedge fund Pershing Square Capital Management, have worked hard to undermine market confidence in the bond insurers.

    MBIA said lawmakers should help restore confidence in the bond insurers, because their failure could have far-reaching effects on the U.S. and global economies.

    In testimony that specifically targets Mr. Ackman, MBIA wrote that the House Subcommittee on Capital Markets should work with the Securities and Exchange Commission to curtail “the unscrupulous and dangerous market manipulation activities of short sellers,” trying to undermine market confidence in MBIA to drive the company’s share price to nearly zero.

    It said the practice and dissemination of “half-truths and misleading information” should be “investigated and curtailed,” and called on Congress to work on the matter with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

    MBIA also included as an appendix a timeline of actions by Mr. Ackman, and to a lesser extent by other short sellers.

    Mr. Ackman, who is also expected to testify before the committee Thursday, has persisted in challenging MBIA’s AAA credit rating for more than five years, saying MBIA hasn’t been forthcoming about backing risky financial instruments such as those based on loans to the least creditworthy homebuyers.

    And his efforts have not gone unrewarded. Mr. Ackman’s Pershing Square delivered a return of 22 percent to its investors in 2007, thanks in part to its bets that the stocks and bonds of MBIA and Ambac would fall, Bloomberg News reported.

    The war of the words comes as the three major U.S. credit rating agencies are deciding whether MBIA has enough funds to keep its AAA rating.

    Investors fear that a chain reaction of losses might rock the financial industry if even one big bond insurer were to lose its top credit rating. The concern is that MBIA and Ambac, which have guaranteed more than $1 trillion in municipal, corporate and mortgage debt, will not have the capital they will need to pay out claims as defaults rise.

    Many big banks and investors that hold mortgage securities guaranteed by the companies would have to write down the value of those investments if the insurers lose their top ratings. Those losses could total tens of billions of dollars for some banks.

     
    Vermeer
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    Posted: Feb. 15, 2008 - 12:31 PM ET #39

    But Mr. Ackman’s public warnings have been particularly galling to MBIA and other bond insurers as they come at a time when the financial firms themselves at the center of the subprime storm.

    Mr. Ackman, however, had at least one backer in his corner. MarketWatch columnist Herb Greenberg roundly chastised MBIA for calling on Congress to rein in Mr. Ackman’s practices.

    “[R]ather than accept the reality that it caused its own problems with bad business and actuarial decisions, MBIA is complaining to Congress about the guy who blew the whistle, Mr. Greenberg wrote. “Seems that rather than crucify him, they should give him the Congressional Medal of Honor.”

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    But Mr. Ackman’s public warnings have been particularly galling to MBIA and other bond insurers as they come at a time when the financial firms themselves at the center of the subprime storm.

    Mr. Ackman, however, had at least one backer in his corner. MarketWatch columnist Herb Greenberg roundly chastised MBIA for calling on Congress to rein in Mr. Ackman’s practices.

    “[R]ather than accept the reality that it caused its own problems with bad business and actuarial decisions, MBIA is complaining to Congress about the guy who blew the whistle, Mr. Greenberg wrote. “Seems that rather than crucify him, they should give him the Congressional Medal of Honor.”

     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Feb. 15, 2008 - 12:35 PM ET #40

    Pretty pathetic that a short seller would go to these lengths to make a buck.

    I wonder what levels of cash the companies have relative to REAL threats to default?

    Since my view is that defaults arent that serious, they probably have enough cash given my scenario. I am not sure if the economy goes into the abyss, but if that happens maybe they do not.

    Nice job on HANS, I like the stock quite a bit..but I am heavy in DRYS right now to get any..haha

    DRYS selling off after great earnings, sell on the news, but it did have a great run over the last month.  


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    Pretty pathetic that a short seller would go to these lengths to make a buck.

    I wonder what levels of cash the companies have relative to REAL threats to default?

    Since my view is that defaults arent that serious, they probably have enough cash given my scenario. I am not sure if the economy goes into the abyss, but if that happens maybe they do not.

    Nice job on HANS, I like the stock quite a bit..but I am heavy in DRYS right now to get any..haha

    DRYS selling off after great earnings, sell on the news, but it did have a great run over the last month.  


     
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    Posted: Feb. 15, 2008 - 1:48 PM ET #41


     Actually I agree with Greenberg. Trying to blame a short seller for self inflicted wounds is peculiar at best....and Ackman has apparently been doing a job the regulators abandoned throughout this entire period.

    It is an interesting era, where a fool like Greenspan is lionized and richly rewarded (while creating an enormous enormous  are condemned.
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     Actually I agree with Greenberg. Trying to blame a short seller for self inflicted wounds is peculiar at best....and Ackman has apparently been doing a job the regulators abandoned throughout this entire period.

    It is an interesting era, where a fool like Greenspan is lionized and richly rewarded (while creating an enormous enormous  are condemned.
     
    depeche2
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    Posted: Feb. 15, 2008 - 2:54 PM ET #42

    Anyone see Cell Genesys (CEGE) up over 30% now today on positive clinical results for GVAX?  I think this drug is for real and is going to be a real step forward to people suffering from prostate cancer in the future.  It's still a ways off from commercial but every step of the way this looks really promising and stands to be very profitable.  Even with today's rise, stock is way off from where it was even 6 months ago, for no good reason IMO.
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    Anyone see Cell Genesys (CEGE) up over 30% now today on positive clinical results for GVAX?  I think this drug is for real and is going to be a real step forward to people suffering from prostate cancer in the future.  It's still a ways off from commercial but every step of the way this looks really promising and stands to be very profitable.  Even with today's rise, stock is way off from where it was even 6 months ago, for no good reason IMO.
     
    depeche2
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    Posted: Feb. 15, 2008 - 2:55 PM ET #43

    G-damn as I speak CEGE is rocketing higher now up 40%...
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    G-damn as I speak CEGE is rocketing higher now up 40%...
     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Feb. 15, 2008 - 4:49 PM ET #44

    Depeche,

    Do you own some?

    Saw it earlier and noticed it came off the highs pretty strongly..
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    Depeche,

    Do you own some?

    Saw it earlier and noticed it came off the highs pretty strongly..
     
    depeche2
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    Posted: Feb. 15, 2008 - 5:44 PM ET #45

    Yeah, I do.  I have it from the mid-3's though so I'm still well down.  But I'm hopeful long-term.
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    Yeah, I do.  I have it from the mid-3's though so I'm still well down.  But I'm hopeful long-term.
     
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    Posted: Feb. 15, 2008 - 10:10 PM ET #46

    Mr. Estrada's recent paper "Black Swans and Market Timing: How Not to Generate Alpha" is one of the most persuasive cases I've read for a disciplined buy-to-hold investment philosophy.

    Estrada studied 15 major global stock markets for periods ranging from 31 to 79 years, with the full data encompassing more than 160,000 trading days. What he found is "less than 0.1% of the days considered" actually matter to long-term returns, which means that "the odds against successful market timing are staggering."

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    Mr. Estrada's recent paper "Black Swans and Market Timing: How Not to Generate Alpha" is one of the most persuasive cases I've read for a disciplined buy-to-hold investment philosophy.

    Estrada studied 15 major global stock markets for periods ranging from 31 to 79 years, with the full data encompassing more than 160,000 trading days. What he found is "less than 0.1% of the days considered" actually matter to long-term returns, which means that "the odds against successful market timing are staggering."

     
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    Posted: Feb. 15, 2008 - 10:20 PM ET #47

    The long weekend starts with

    Dow  12,348
    S&P 1349


    Have a nice weekend....

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    The long weekend starts with

    Dow  12,348
    S&P 1349


    Have a nice weekend....

     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Feb. 15, 2008 - 10:23 PM ET #48

    Longer term that is for sure correct, but over the last few yrs and I would say since 2000, the hold theory wouldnt gain much at all, especially indexed for inflation.

    Being a past broker and current trader I have seen people lose their shirts thinking buy and hold was the only way to invest.

    I can see how people would say such things but I would enjoy seeing the study group centered around more pertinent time frames, meaning say over the past 20 yrs vs 30 to 70 because we had decades of literally no move in the markets. I would also be interested in seeing how the hold and hope theory works during recessionary periods for the economy.
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    Longer term that is for sure correct, but over the last few yrs and I would say since 2000, the hold theory wouldnt gain much at all, especially indexed for inflation.

    Being a past broker and current trader I have seen people lose their shirts thinking buy and hold was the only way to invest.

    I can see how people would say such things but I would enjoy seeing the study group centered around more pertinent time frames, meaning say over the past 20 yrs vs 30 to 70 because we had decades of literally no move in the markets. I would also be interested in seeing how the hold and hope theory works during recessionary periods for the economy.
     
    KOAJ
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    Posted: Feb. 16, 2008 - 7:45 AM ET #49

    wall - it works well especially if you buy cash rich, dividend monsters who ytield more than the 10 year

    T =
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    wall - it works well especially if you buy cash rich, dividend monsters who ytield more than the 10 year

    T =
     
     
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    Posted: Feb. 16, 2008 - 10:41 AM ET #50


    Like everything, as KOAJ states, it matters which stocks you hold. Holding Enron? Got a bad problem. Holding MO, T XOM you have some serious dividends piling up.
     The are many many studies corroborating that dividends are responsible for @90% of real gains in portfolios.

    For fun:

    https://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/02/07/you-lived-the-bubble-now-see-the-video/

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    Like everything, as KOAJ states, it matters which stocks you hold. Holding Enron? Got a bad problem. Holding MO, T XOM you have some serious dividends piling up.
     The are many many studies corroborating that dividends are responsible for @90% of real gains in portfolios.

    For fun:

    https://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/02/07/you-lived-the-bubble-now-see-the-video/

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