February Stock Talk !!

As per above comments on this market, one trader's opinion, not my own although I agree with it:

Gap down morning, let's how the gap can be filled and that yesterday was not a top for the market. Keep an eye on the VIX. Take profits relentlessly in the market, we've had lots of nice gains , don't let them turn into losses. Again in this market try to lock in partial gains and take profits when you can to limit risk. For you long term traders please realize that at this time there are no long term trades, that will come in time.

 By the way Gunners, if you still own SKF, Bernanke also rather casually said there was a good chance of several banks going under...as you probably already read.He said it so casually it astounded me, as if a few small banks going down the toilet would be nothing...

On the second day of his biannual testimony to Congress, Bernanke said that some small US banks were likely to go under from the effects of the credit crunch and soaring mortgage delinquencies.

"I expect there will be some failures," he said. "I don't anticipate any serious problems of that sort among the large internationally active banks that make up a very substantial part of our banking system."

Any comments Wall or anyone, on theexcerpt below?

The Fed announced again on March 9th, with no palatable explanation, that they will no longer publish M-3 as of March 23rd. While they claim that M-3 is useless, in the blurb on their website, the fact is banks are still reporting all the data on their Call Reports used to calculate M-3. The Fed has not eliminated the unique M-3 components from the Bank Call Reports.

Why don't they want to be transparent with the most important statistic, the very measure of why they were established by a minority of Congress during a late night session back in 1913? Because they cannot wait to pump money to high heaven like some sort of fiat tower of Babel.

M-3 was increased by $28.3 billion last week, a 14.2 percent annualized rate of growth. Over the past 2 weeks, M-3 was boosted an amazing $81.9 billion, for an annualized rate of growth of 20.7 percent! Over the past 8 weeks, M-3 is up 129.6 billion, an 8.2 percent rate of growth, and is up a whopping $249.7 billion over the past 12 weeks, a 10.7 percent annualized rate of growth, a $1.0 trillion annual expansion.

What is happening here? How does this reconcile with the Bernanke announcement that bank commercial real estate lending will be curtailed?

vermeer - it doesnt...we are headed for, already in and whirlwind of economic shit which will only be compounded if obama is elected and rolls back the tax cuts

I do still own SKF.  I also am short via SRS (largest position), SMN, FXP, and LEH puts. 

However, I just closed out of 75% of my LEH puts for a realized 26% gain.  I'm keeping the rest for the chance of a big hit next week. 

 I agree KOAJ...it is a major one two combination of bad news and rolling back tax cuts assures declines in revenues, right as municipalities and the federal government need to increase revenues (especially since you ad I and everyone else know fiscal responsibilty is out of the question when it comes to Congress.)

We are in for a bad time in the markets and it wont matter if we roll back tax cuts or not. The real reason for the pain is already in the pie..the choices made over the last 8 yrs or so will be paid for in the next 4 yrs regardless of who is there or if we have a little cap gains tax or not.

Nice job on LEH, very glad it is going your way.

 USD being sacrificed to belatdely head off the inevitable, and in the end, this will come back to bite us all in the ass in a major way with  inflation really ramping up.

KOAJ, do you agree with this analysis? I tend to, the rise in commodiites just cannot sustain the parabolic increases. Yet I am in general more of a long term person, and I see the Fed deliberately cutting the value of the dollar, and as long as they follow that policy, I can't see bailing out of DBA or RJA...

Today's observation is an excellent one... and one we can't take credit for. It comes from our friend and supertrader Jeff Clark.

 Jeff cautioned traders on the danger of buying agricultural assets right now... specifically, the PowerShares DB Agriculture ETF (DBA).

We've mentioned the DBA several times as a direct, one-click way to participate in the soaring corn, soybean, and wheat markets. We trumpeted its introduction over a year ago, and it's been a huge winner for its entire existence.

But now, as Jeff points out, this ETF is near the end of an unsustainable "parabolic" rally... rising 35% in just the past three months. These kinds of moves are almost always corrected by sharp pullbacks. Long term, the bullish case for agriculture is a great one. Short term, expect the big pullback Jeff sees around the corner. As we've learned over the years, he has the obnoxious habit of constantly being right.

vermeer - im up 17% on my RJA in 6 weeks

yes its insane

rja and dba are a bit different...i think powershares are baskets of stocks whereas rja is actuallt a basket of commodities

 Koaj:

I think according to what I have on file it DBA is composed of commodities:

TOP 10 HOLDINGS ( 106.03% OF TOTAL ASSETS)

Company	Symbol	% Assets
Cbt Wheat (Fut)	N/A	5.71
Corn (Fut)	N/A	25.81
Soybean (Fut)	N/A	27.33
Sugar (Fut)	N/A	25.75
Wheat (Fut)	N/A	18.73
Wheat Future(Kcb) Jul08	N/A	2.7

And then you read this re from Rogers, and yes he may be a permabull, but man he has been right for 9 freaking years...

Jim Rogers, who predicted the start of the commodities rally in 1999, comments on the outlook for sugar, cotton and other commodities.

He spoke today at the CLSA Japan Forum in Tokyo.

On the outlook for agricultural:

``If I told you how bullish I am about agriculture, you'd ask me to leave the room. Prices of agricultural commodities are going to explode. Inventories of food are the lowest they've been in over 40 years. The number of hectares devoted to wheat farming has been declining for over 30 years.''

``All of you should get all the sugar you can. The price of sugar is going to explode.''

``I'm bullish on cotton and have been for a while. A lot of people in the textile business are starting to convert from synthetics to natural fibers again because it's so much cheaper'' given the rise in prices for oil used to make synthetic fibers.

On prospects for the Japanese yen:

``I own the yen and it's another thing I'm buying these days. I'm convinced the carry-trade is going to reverse and when it does the yen is going to go through the roof.''