Looks like my thoughts on the CDO insurers should happen.
Too much at stake and repricussions to all this to happen. We might not agree with it, but I cannot see that the FED or the government allows these guys to go under.
I was watching the financials closely on Friday afternoon, and I think they were setting up to get flushed shortly after 3:00pm (UYG and XLF charts). It was my hope that they would, as I thought this may provide a good entry point. But the bailout news saved them. I would be paying very close attention Monday and Tuesday to the financials, because if the Ambac rumor turns out to be bogus, there will be hell to pay.
0
Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:
Looks like my thoughts on the CDO insurers should happen.
Too much at stake and repricussions to all this to happen. We might not agree with it, but I cannot see that the FED or the government allows these guys to go under.
I was watching the financials closely on Friday afternoon, and I think they were setting up to get flushed shortly after 3:00pm (UYG and XLF charts). It was my hope that they would, as I thought this may provide a good entry point. But the bailout news saved them. I would be paying very close attention Monday and Tuesday to the financials, because if the Ambac rumor turns out to be bogus, there will be hell to pay.
According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the rest of the world
currently owns way more of America (stocks, bonds, real estate, etc.)
than America owns of the rest of the world, by a margin of $2.6
trillion (as of year-end 2006; a 2007 figure is due in July and will be
larger). Net foreign ownership is increasing very rapidly; it has
multiplied by a factor of five in just the past decade. As it grows, we
must send more dividends and interest to foreign owners, giving them
more money with which to buy more U.S. assets, earning more dividends,
and so on.
This compounding effect is small when net foreign
ownership is low, but at today's levels the effect is becoming
significant and ever harder to reverse. Where it leads is grim: As a
nation we eventually cease to be capitalists and become simply wage
earners. As Warren Buffett put it in a prophetic Fortune article more
than four years ago, a country that goes too far down this road can be
"colonized by purchase rather than conquest."
0
From Fortune...
According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the rest of the world
currently owns way more of America (stocks, bonds, real estate, etc.)
than America owns of the rest of the world, by a margin of $2.6
trillion (as of year-end 2006; a 2007 figure is due in July and will be
larger). Net foreign ownership is increasing very rapidly; it has
multiplied by a factor of five in just the past decade. As it grows, we
must send more dividends and interest to foreign owners, giving them
more money with which to buy more U.S. assets, earning more dividends,
and so on.
This compounding effect is small when net foreign
ownership is low, but at today's levels the effect is becoming
significant and ever harder to reverse. Where it leads is grim: As a
nation we eventually cease to be capitalists and become simply wage
earners. As Warren Buffett put it in a prophetic Fortune article more
than four years ago, a country that goes too far down this road can be
"colonized by purchase rather than conquest."
We know why this is the case, the FED is artificially creating the demand for our goods/services/stocks/companies in order to stop the recession, or slow it.
What to me this means is any recovery will be drawn out, or the severity of a recession/depression will be WORSE because say the FED runs out of ammo and the market and economy keep dropping..what are we going to do, devalue our currency? At SOME point they have to STOP printing or the country could lose its credit rating which would snowball into a serious situation.
No way around it, this mess will either kill us or take a decade to unwind..either way it isnt good.
0
Vermeer,
We know why this is the case, the FED is artificially creating the demand for our goods/services/stocks/companies in order to stop the recession, or slow it.
What to me this means is any recovery will be drawn out, or the severity of a recession/depression will be WORSE because say the FED runs out of ammo and the market and economy keep dropping..what are we going to do, devalue our currency? At SOME point they have to STOP printing or the country could lose its credit rating which would snowball into a serious situation.
No way around it, this mess will either kill us or take a decade to unwind..either way it isnt good.
I suppose the one thing that makes me wonder Wall is that you have various central banks involved (the CDO stuff has a lot of Europeans holding the bag). You also have a LOT of people who would rather be in anything other than the dollar. (Gold is up against most currencies I think). I think we are going to watch an ersatz recovery financed with ever more Fed dollars. I frankly see no likely scenario in which the Fed stops printing ever more worthless dollars:can you? Especially with a likely Democratic victory in the fall?
In the coming two years I see, most likely, an incoming president who will enlarge already enormous entitlements, AND preside over major military defeats..Sounds like 1973/1974 to me, not a good moment in American finance or politics.
The only way of avoiding the consequences of such seriously stupid economic policy decisions by both parties is to look elsewhere for investment.The military defeats will ultimately have even greater significance, as the Middle East further destabilizes and most likely rids itself of a despised Saudi regime.Should that occur, a lof of Americans will get the pleasure of wlaking to work.
I know this may seem alarmist, but empires tend to deteriorate rapidly once past a certain point,and while many Americans may refuse to beleive their empire is at that point, it is.
0
I suppose the one thing that makes me wonder Wall is that you have various central banks involved (the CDO stuff has a lot of Europeans holding the bag). You also have a LOT of people who would rather be in anything other than the dollar. (Gold is up against most currencies I think). I think we are going to watch an ersatz recovery financed with ever more Fed dollars. I frankly see no likely scenario in which the Fed stops printing ever more worthless dollars:can you? Especially with a likely Democratic victory in the fall?
In the coming two years I see, most likely, an incoming president who will enlarge already enormous entitlements, AND preside over major military defeats..Sounds like 1973/1974 to me, not a good moment in American finance or politics.
The only way of avoiding the consequences of such seriously stupid economic policy decisions by both parties is to look elsewhere for investment.The military defeats will ultimately have even greater significance, as the Middle East further destabilizes and most likely rids itself of a despised Saudi regime.Should that occur, a lof of Americans will get the pleasure of wlaking to work.
I know this may seem alarmist, but empires tend to deteriorate rapidly once past a certain point,and while many Americans may refuse to beleive their empire is at that point, it is.
I know this may seem alarmist, but empires tend to deteriorate rapidly once past a certain point,and while many Americans may refuse to beleive their empire is at that point, it is.
I guess the Framers were right when they didn't want to let the Fed Gov't have too much power. This election will be the final nail in the coffin, I'm afraid. There will either be a President who wants to try to control citizens lives from craddle to grave(Obama/Clinton) or a President who will gut the Bill of Rights (McCain)
In all honesty, this experiment of a country has lasted a hell of a long time. Most leading countries/civilizations in history didn't rule for this long.
0
Quote Originally Posted by Vermeer:
I know this may seem alarmist, but empires tend to deteriorate rapidly once past a certain point,and while many Americans may refuse to beleive their empire is at that point, it is.
I guess the Framers were right when they didn't want to let the Fed Gov't have too much power. This election will be the final nail in the coffin, I'm afraid. There will either be a President who wants to try to control citizens lives from craddle to grave(Obama/Clinton) or a President who will gut the Bill of Rights (McCain)
In all honesty, this experiment of a country has lasted a hell of a long time. Most leading countries/civilizations in history didn't rule for this long.
In truth it has lasted far longer than most, attaining its apogee in 1945. SInce then it has been eroded by continual military involvement (the number of "conflicts" and the price we have paid for all of them has been enormous.) andincreasingly irresponsible federal spending and monetary measures.
It is ironic that deterioration has picked up pace after the victory over the Soviet Empire.
Not all has been benighted, as the US has essentially rebuilt and protected democratic Europe and created a democratic Asia, but at enormous cost.We no longer have the need nor the ability to do either, but persist in doing so. We still retain bases in Japan Germany and Great Britain, all supposedly allies, all economically and militarily capable of their own defense, and all of them in good shape financially Japan in particular would love to see us leave.
Imperial overreach and the sops of impossible-to-finance social programs are typical of late stage, tottering empires. Add in the infiltration of foreign elements (Rome was not overrrun by "barbarians" initially, it was dependent upon semi-citizens of the empire's borders, used for essential services initially:sound familiar?) who had only a loose allegiance to or understanding of the history of the cultural norms.
What we have now: a militarized, bankrupt empire, overextended abroad, and hollowed out internally, and one increasingly unable to meet its financial and military obligations... .
0
In truth it has lasted far longer than most, attaining its apogee in 1945. SInce then it has been eroded by continual military involvement (the number of "conflicts" and the price we have paid for all of them has been enormous.) andincreasingly irresponsible federal spending and monetary measures.
It is ironic that deterioration has picked up pace after the victory over the Soviet Empire.
Not all has been benighted, as the US has essentially rebuilt and protected democratic Europe and created a democratic Asia, but at enormous cost.We no longer have the need nor the ability to do either, but persist in doing so. We still retain bases in Japan Germany and Great Britain, all supposedly allies, all economically and militarily capable of their own defense, and all of them in good shape financially Japan in particular would love to see us leave.
Imperial overreach and the sops of impossible-to-finance social programs are typical of late stage, tottering empires. Add in the infiltration of foreign elements (Rome was not overrrun by "barbarians" initially, it was dependent upon semi-citizens of the empire's borders, used for essential services initially:sound familiar?) who had only a loose allegiance to or understanding of the history of the cultural norms.
What we have now: a militarized, bankrupt empire, overextended abroad, and hollowed out internally, and one increasingly unable to meet its financial and military obligations... .
Markets are predicting that the Fed will lower rates by at least another 75 basis points over the next 12 months, taking the benchmark rate to 2.25 pct. The Fed has already acted aggressively to lower rates by 125 points this year.
"The
Fed has enjoyed more room to ease aggressively within G10 economies due
to the absence of inflationary pressures. Any complications to this
view would threaten policy stability and new volatility would hit
markets as a result of the necessary re-pricing," UBS analysts added.
Market
sentiment has been bolstered by a report late Friday of the rescue for
Ambac, which had risked losing its AAA credit rating due to losses on
securities linked to unpaid housing mortgages.
"News
that Ambac looks likely to receive a bail-out has done something to
build confidence and the greenback has posted some gains as a result,"
said Gary Thomson, head of sales trading at CMC Markets.
0
Markets are predicting that the Fed will lower rates by at least another 75 basis points over the next 12 months, taking the benchmark rate to 2.25 pct. The Fed has already acted aggressively to lower rates by 125 points this year.
"The
Fed has enjoyed more room to ease aggressively within G10 economies due
to the absence of inflationary pressures. Any complications to this
view would threaten policy stability and new volatility would hit
markets as a result of the necessary re-pricing," UBS analysts added.
Market
sentiment has been bolstered by a report late Friday of the rescue for
Ambac, which had risked losing its AAA credit rating due to losses on
securities linked to unpaid housing mortgages.
"News
that Ambac looks likely to receive a bail-out has done something to
build confidence and the greenback has posted some gains as a result,"
said Gary Thomson, head of sales trading at CMC Markets.
Nah..stock got a downgrade the other day and it seems to lose power as the day goes on. Maybe if she dips to 2 bucks again..then it might be worth a try.
0
Gunners,
Nah..stock got a downgrade the other day and it seems to lose power as the day goes on. Maybe if she dips to 2 bucks again..then it might be worth a try.
What does everyone think about SCA? Can it continue to ride the wave up with ABK and MBI or does it sputter out and retreat back down to 52 week lows again?
0
What does everyone think about SCA? Can it continue to ride the wave up with ABK and MBI or does it sputter out and retreat back down to 52 week lows again?
That was a shot in the dark non-answer to the question posed about SCA ...I know nothing specific regarding the stock itself.
By the way, I think someone needs to tell Ben Bernanke that the most important part of his job is to talk a lot but to say nothing.Greenie at least could baffle them with bullshit.Watching Ben, he actually explains himself to well. He needs to be told to obfuscate better.
The USD being tossed on a funeral pyre, a deliberate sacrifice to try and prop up the reeling market.The USD has to reach a bottom sometime, and it should be soon, but not until the likelihood of more rate cuts is minimal.
I see consolidation, a trend upwards in the overall stock market, and then get ready to seriously short the markets as they ratchet downward again.
While wheat in particular looks absurdly parabolic, and unsustainable, commodities will continue to prosper as long as they keep cuttng the rates in DC.
0
That was a shot in the dark non-answer to the question posed about SCA ...I know nothing specific regarding the stock itself.
By the way, I think someone needs to tell Ben Bernanke that the most important part of his job is to talk a lot but to say nothing.Greenie at least could baffle them with bullshit.Watching Ben, he actually explains himself to well. He needs to be told to obfuscate better.
The USD being tossed on a funeral pyre, a deliberate sacrifice to try and prop up the reeling market.The USD has to reach a bottom sometime, and it should be soon, but not until the likelihood of more rate cuts is minimal.
I see consolidation, a trend upwards in the overall stock market, and then get ready to seriously short the markets as they ratchet downward again.
While wheat in particular looks absurdly parabolic, and unsustainable, commodities will continue to prosper as long as they keep cuttng the rates in DC.
NEW YORK (AP) -- Thornburg Mortgage Inc., a mortgage lender, said
Thursday it has been the subject of margin calls on a portfolio of
securities backed by alt-A mortgages.
Alt-A mortgages are loans given
to customers with minor credit problems or who cannot document their
income or assets to get a traditional, prime mortgage. Margin calls
force borrowers to repay loans or put up more collateral to secure them.
0
the biggest story of the day
NEW YORK (AP) -- Thornburg Mortgage Inc., a mortgage lender, said
Thursday it has been the subject of margin calls on a portfolio of
securities backed by alt-A mortgages.
Alt-A mortgages are loans given
to customers with minor credit problems or who cannot document their
income or assets to get a traditional, prime mortgage. Margin calls
force borrowers to repay loans or put up more collateral to secure them.
MarketGrader currently has a BUY rating on MICREL
INC (MCRL), based on a final overall grade of 64.2 scored by the
company's fundamental analysis. MICREL INC scores at the 84th
percentile among all 5374 U.S. listed equities currently followed by
MarketGrader. Our present rating dates to February 1, 2008, when it was
upgraded from a HOLD. Relative to the Semiconductors sub-industry,
which is comprised of 125 companies, MICREL INC's grade of 64.2 ranks
18th. The industry grade leader is HIMAX TECHNOLOGIES INC (HIMX) with
an overall grade of 86.1. The stock has performed poorly in the last
six months in relative terms, down 39.13% compared with the
Semiconductors sub-industry, down 24.85% and the S&P 500 Index,
down 7.17%.
MarketGrader currently has a BUY rating on MICREL
INC (MCRL), based on a final overall grade of 64.2 scored by the
company's fundamental analysis. MICREL INC scores at the 84th
percentile among all 5374 U.S. listed equities currently followed by
MarketGrader. Our present rating dates to February 1, 2008, when it was
upgraded from a HOLD. Relative to the Semiconductors sub-industry,
which is comprised of 125 companies, MICREL INC's grade of 64.2 ranks
18th. The industry grade leader is HIMAX TECHNOLOGIES INC (HIMX) with
an overall grade of 86.1. The stock has performed poorly in the last
six months in relative terms, down 39.13% compared with the
Semiconductors sub-industry, down 24.85% and the S&P 500 Index,
down 7.17%.
The Thornburg thing may be the news of the day, but I was taken aback somewhat at the casual answer bernanke gave to Dodd's questioning of what the impact would be if oil was no longer priced in dollars.While admitting it would "perhaps" be a symbolic loss, he dismissed the idea that it would carry any economic consequences of note to the US.Not sure I agree.Wall, I think, does agree with that idea however...
0
Koaj,
The Thornburg thing may be the news of the day, but I was taken aback somewhat at the casual answer bernanke gave to Dodd's questioning of what the impact would be if oil was no longer priced in dollars.While admitting it would "perhaps" be a symbolic loss, he dismissed the idea that it would carry any economic consequences of note to the US.Not sure I agree.Wall, I think, does agree with that idea however...
The market reacts to what he says, that is why I listen to him. He is straight, maybe too straight...I just happen to think he underestimates the power of symbols..
0
Koaj,
The market reacts to what he says, that is why I listen to him. He is straight, maybe too straight...I just happen to think he underestimates the power of symbols..
I actually (gulp) watched a few minutes of the hearing yesterday with Big Ben and I was shocked at the intelligence of one of the committee members. I dont know the name, but the face was the avatar of a banned member here (JimmyJack) and I think he was the chair.
He asked Ben DIRECTLY when the Fed was going to stop printing money, devaluing the currency to artificially stimulate the econoy and Ben really had no answer for him. It was amazing to see Ben called to the mat by a politician and he had little to say. I wish the guy had just asked the question and made him answer it, but he let Ben off the hook by drifting to another topic and it turned into an inflation discussion versus the real subject that the Fed is printing money and nobody is stopping them.
Financials are retreating again, I thought the market was ready to turn over yesterday so todays action doesnt shock me. I imagine they can take it down another 300 pts and then stay in the trading range for a while.
0
I actually (gulp) watched a few minutes of the hearing yesterday with Big Ben and I was shocked at the intelligence of one of the committee members. I dont know the name, but the face was the avatar of a banned member here (JimmyJack) and I think he was the chair.
He asked Ben DIRECTLY when the Fed was going to stop printing money, devaluing the currency to artificially stimulate the econoy and Ben really had no answer for him. It was amazing to see Ben called to the mat by a politician and he had little to say. I wish the guy had just asked the question and made him answer it, but he let Ben off the hook by drifting to another topic and it turned into an inflation discussion versus the real subject that the Fed is printing money and nobody is stopping them.
Financials are retreating again, I thought the market was ready to turn over yesterday so todays action doesnt shock me. I imagine they can take it down another 300 pts and then stay in the trading range for a while.
I sold half my HANS today for a 12% profit and bought some protective puts on my other half. Well, HANS reported, and HANS beat, and their stock immediately went up to $49 in afterhours, only to immediately trade back down to below $41. The only way I could have gotten more lucky, was if I was able to time a sell of my long shares at that $49. I ended up selling the rest at $41.50 in afterhours, for a 7.5% gain on those shares, and I should make money on the puts. I’ll decide later whether or not to get long again.
As for LEH. You guys were right on those short term puts. But i averaged down by buying a lot of April $55 puts over the last few days, and i'm even right now, after today's drop in LEH. i haven't closed any of the positions yet. because i still see them going down, and reporting writedowns soon. And now i have more time. Thanks for the tips guys.
0
I sold half my HANS today for a 12% profit and bought some protective puts on my other half. Well, HANS reported, and HANS beat, and their stock immediately went up to $49 in afterhours, only to immediately trade back down to below $41. The only way I could have gotten more lucky, was if I was able to time a sell of my long shares at that $49. I ended up selling the rest at $41.50 in afterhours, for a 7.5% gain on those shares, and I should make money on the puts. I’ll decide later whether or not to get long again.
As for LEH. You guys were right on those short term puts. But i averaged down by buying a lot of April $55 puts over the last few days, and i'm even right now, after today's drop in LEH. i haven't closed any of the positions yet. because i still see them going down, and reporting writedowns soon. And now i have more time. Thanks for the tips guys.
I saw the numbers...HANS went down because of margin drop from what I could see. Glad you had some puts and sold for a gain.
This market gives and takes fast..I had some gains that are no longer gains, and I thought about taking them..yet I start thinking long term and get nailed.
Hope LEH keeps going down for you..lessons in options are usually not learned from others, rather from losing money and experience.
0
Gunners,
I saw the numbers...HANS went down because of margin drop from what I could see. Glad you had some puts and sold for a gain.
This market gives and takes fast..I had some gains that are no longer gains, and I thought about taking them..yet I start thinking long term and get nailed.
Hope LEH keeps going down for you..lessons in options are usually not learned from others, rather from losing money and experience.
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