General commentary but one worth keeping in mind (to me at least).
The root of today's problems in the financial markets and in the
economy as a whole is the household sector. The point needs no
elaboration, but its significance cannot be minimized. The shrinkage in the personal
savings rate is not the result of consumer profligacy, as other
commentators persist in describing it. Rather, the savings rate has
been suppressed by a slowdown in the growth of household incomes. The
shortfall between income and outlay has been met by borrowing, and in
particular by borrowing against the family real estate. Now the
opportunity to borrow has shrunk dramatically, an outcome that will
profoundly change the household's spending power and spending
patterns. But the impact is not just on the household. A slowdown in
the growth of consumer spending has ominous implications for the
entire global economy - and, along the way, the U. S. federal deficit,
soon to be overburdened by spiraling benefit obligations. This
predicament is not a short-run matter, unless home prices abruptly
reverse themselves and head back into the stratosphere - which is
hardly likely.
0
General commentary but one worth keeping in mind (to me at least).
The root of today's problems in the financial markets and in the
economy as a whole is the household sector. The point needs no
elaboration, but its significance cannot be minimized. The shrinkage in the personal
savings rate is not the result of consumer profligacy, as other
commentators persist in describing it. Rather, the savings rate has
been suppressed by a slowdown in the growth of household incomes. The
shortfall between income and outlay has been met by borrowing, and in
particular by borrowing against the family real estate. Now the
opportunity to borrow has shrunk dramatically, an outcome that will
profoundly change the household's spending power and spending
patterns. But the impact is not just on the household. A slowdown in
the growth of consumer spending has ominous implications for the
entire global economy - and, along the way, the U. S. federal deficit,
soon to be overburdened by spiraling benefit obligations. This
predicament is not a short-run matter, unless home prices abruptly
reverse themselves and head back into the stratosphere - which is
hardly likely.
AKS (ak steel) was able to raise prices this week...others will follow. steel is strong enough in a recession where they can push prices. thats very bullish IMO
0
hat - no pennies for me
all large cap, dividends, some commodities
T, V, RJA, PX
looking at CHK, RAI, steel companies
AKS (ak steel) was able to raise prices this week...others will follow. steel is strong enough in a recession where they can push prices. thats very bullish IMO
CRDC is approaching a couple crucial technical areas. Looks like it can break a downtrend line at around $7.85 or so. Then the 50 day MA is sitting around $8.36.
If it could reach the 50 Day, maybe we will see some more buying
0
CRDC is approaching a couple crucial technical areas. Looks like it can break a downtrend line at around $7.85 or so. Then the 50 day MA is sitting around $8.36.
If it could reach the 50 Day, maybe we will see some more buying
A nice quiet move on low volume. I have been pleased lately. Of course it sold off because if there is any selling pressure at all it gets nailed due to the low float.
I bot more as you know and now that purchase is performing quite nicely.
0
Gunners,
A nice quiet move on low volume. I have been pleased lately. Of course it sold off because if there is any selling pressure at all it gets nailed due to the low float.
I bot more as you know and now that purchase is performing quite nicely.
Goldman Sachs forecasts global credit
losses stemming from the current market turmoil will reach $1.2
trillion, with Wall Street accounting for nearly 40 percent of
the losses
0
Goldman Sachs forecasts global credit
losses stemming from the current market turmoil will reach $1.2
trillion, with Wall Street accounting for nearly 40 percent of
the losses
I meant to include this from the article from reuters:
Goldman estimated $120 billion in write-offs have been
reported by these leveraged institutions since the credit
crunch began last summer.
"U.S. leveraged institutions have written off less than
half of the losses associated with the bursting of the credit
bubble," they said. "There is light at the end of the tunnel,
but it is still rather dim."
Of the cumulative losses expected by these leveraged
players, bad residential home loans will represent about half,
while poor-performing commercial mortgages will represent 15
percent to 20 percent.
The rest of the losses will come from credit card loans,
car loans, commercial and industrial lending and non-financial
corporate bonds, Goldman economists said.
Facing more credit losses, leveraged institutions have
raised about $100 billion in new cap
0
I meant to include this from the article from reuters:
Goldman estimated $120 billion in write-offs have been
reported by these leveraged institutions since the credit
crunch began last summer.
"U.S. leveraged institutions have written off less than
half of the losses associated with the bursting of the credit
bubble," they said. "There is light at the end of the tunnel,
but it is still rather dim."
Of the cumulative losses expected by these leveraged
players, bad residential home loans will represent about half,
while poor-performing commercial mortgages will represent 15
percent to 20 percent.
The rest of the losses will come from credit card loans,
car loans, commercial and industrial lending and non-financial
corporate bonds, Goldman economists said.
Facing more credit losses, leveraged institutions have
raised about $100 billion in new cap
I have been thinking in macro terms more than usual the past few days.I believe the actions by the Fed, and other central banks, will only lessen the blows that remain.I think there are plenty more to come.Americans are famously impatient;this is going to be an agonizing year for people who think everything should be solved overnight.
That being the case, I remain bullish gold, (used the pull back to accumulate more, and will again should it turn down again) and bearish the USD. It also occurred to me that I have typed these sentences for quite some time now here.Nothing,sadly, has changed my mind about the direction of this country.
Unfortunately, as hard as I try to be optimistic about the US in general and the American market in particular, I have a raft of reasons to short both.
For all the incessant cant about "change" (the tedium of that cliche is so overused that it became a punchlline for mindless posturing), anyone thinking that Washington DC will fundamentally change how it operates has not noticed how the races are being run.
The same hacks are running the same campaigns, and the result is in Iowa you get "ethanol" as a "energy policy" strongly endorsed by...everyone, Republican or Democrat. We remain hostages to the same set of stooges that have gotten us where we are today in energy. And there we will remain.
Thirty years ago I was naive enough to think the government and the people would devise a way out of energy idiocy. While I was waiting, I watched fools pile into SUVs, and ever huger, higher powered pickup trucks, on their way to building huge, energy inefficient McMansions by the thousands, guaranteeing another generation of waste(and war.)
I can't see cashing in my chips to live in Singapore ala Jimmy Rogers. But one tires of expecting the federales to dilute the dollar, of pols promising yet more hopelessly absurd entitlements (frankly, and this is to all my fellow Americans, the sooner you stop feeling entitled to everything the more bearable you will become to the rest of the planet,)
Thus endeth a rant. I feel relieved. But I am buying more gold, selling into any upswing, and remain firmly convinced no matter who wins any election, the country's obligations exceeds its means.
0
I have been thinking in macro terms more than usual the past few days.I believe the actions by the Fed, and other central banks, will only lessen the blows that remain.I think there are plenty more to come.Americans are famously impatient;this is going to be an agonizing year for people who think everything should be solved overnight.
That being the case, I remain bullish gold, (used the pull back to accumulate more, and will again should it turn down again) and bearish the USD. It also occurred to me that I have typed these sentences for quite some time now here.Nothing,sadly, has changed my mind about the direction of this country.
Unfortunately, as hard as I try to be optimistic about the US in general and the American market in particular, I have a raft of reasons to short both.
For all the incessant cant about "change" (the tedium of that cliche is so overused that it became a punchlline for mindless posturing), anyone thinking that Washington DC will fundamentally change how it operates has not noticed how the races are being run.
The same hacks are running the same campaigns, and the result is in Iowa you get "ethanol" as a "energy policy" strongly endorsed by...everyone, Republican or Democrat. We remain hostages to the same set of stooges that have gotten us where we are today in energy. And there we will remain.
Thirty years ago I was naive enough to think the government and the people would devise a way out of energy idiocy. While I was waiting, I watched fools pile into SUVs, and ever huger, higher powered pickup trucks, on their way to building huge, energy inefficient McMansions by the thousands, guaranteeing another generation of waste(and war.)
I can't see cashing in my chips to live in Singapore ala Jimmy Rogers. But one tires of expecting the federales to dilute the dollar, of pols promising yet more hopelessly absurd entitlements (frankly, and this is to all my fellow Americans, the sooner you stop feeling entitled to everything the more bearable you will become to the rest of the planet,)
Thus endeth a rant. I feel relieved. But I am buying more gold, selling into any upswing, and remain firmly convinced no matter who wins any election, the country's obligations exceeds its means.
The rallies and recent gains are only due the recent emergency rate cuts by the Fed and the bail out of Bear Stearns. The market is only being prop up with smoke and mirrors. You need to quit watching the main street media because it's nothing but lies. The DJIA will be below 10000 by years end.
0
The rallies and recent gains are only due the recent emergency rate cuts by the Fed and the bail out of Bear Stearns. The market is only being prop up with smoke and mirrors. You need to quit watching the main street media because it's nothing but lies. The DJIA will be below 10000 by years end.
SRS is down 17% on the year, based on last night's close. The index that it is the inverse of, URE is up 5%. Do you really think that Commercial Real Estate in this country should be up 5% for the year right now???
0
top pick: SRS
SRS is down 17% on the year, based on last night's close. The index that it is the inverse of, URE is up 5%. Do you really think that Commercial Real Estate in this country should be up 5% for the year right now???
Good question. I think the commercial real estate problems are just beginning.
And by the way, I suppose I should just say precious metals instead of gold, as I do buy silver and lesser amounts of platinum and palladium.
The list of policies I consider utterly imbecilic and completely unlikely to change over the next decades, whether Republican or Democratic stooge in WH:Note how long these policies have been entrenched, most going on 40 to 50 years, no end in sight.
Energy. Same policies in existence since the first oil embargo, still dependent on imported oil as never before, from the same creeps misruling Saudi Arabia.And no this policy cannot and will not change when the doltish Bush family finally exits stage right.
Cuba (it will change but not due to our domestic politics, due to the deaths of the Castros) Idiotic policy has lasted since the earlty
War on Drugs (trillions lost due to enforcement costs, penal system costs, and lost potential tax revenue)
Occupation of Korea, Japan, et al Militarization of the entire US economy, and bases placed throughout the world, 75% of which are unnecessary provocations. (Now including new ones in Eastern European tyrannies). Eisenhower knew a little bit about the military industrial complex, didn't he?
Impossible Social Security funding.Absurd healthcare costs.
Pathetic public school performance. Gross disparities in school systems both intra and interstate.
Completely porous borders. Did we learn anything from the first world trade center bombing? Nope. Have we from the second, more emphatic defeat? No. We will be hit and hit hard again, period, but on a much much greater scale than September 11.
Military and political ineptitude on display by yet another defeat in the field (coming soon to Iraq and Afghanistan, and proving bin Laden correct in estimate of US as a "paper tiger."
So much for the political side of the sheet. The economic consequences from this side are easily deduced.
0
Good question. I think the commercial real estate problems are just beginning.
And by the way, I suppose I should just say precious metals instead of gold, as I do buy silver and lesser amounts of platinum and palladium.
The list of policies I consider utterly imbecilic and completely unlikely to change over the next decades, whether Republican or Democratic stooge in WH:Note how long these policies have been entrenched, most going on 40 to 50 years, no end in sight.
Energy. Same policies in existence since the first oil embargo, still dependent on imported oil as never before, from the same creeps misruling Saudi Arabia.And no this policy cannot and will not change when the doltish Bush family finally exits stage right.
Cuba (it will change but not due to our domestic politics, due to the deaths of the Castros) Idiotic policy has lasted since the earlty
War on Drugs (trillions lost due to enforcement costs, penal system costs, and lost potential tax revenue)
Occupation of Korea, Japan, et al Militarization of the entire US economy, and bases placed throughout the world, 75% of which are unnecessary provocations. (Now including new ones in Eastern European tyrannies). Eisenhower knew a little bit about the military industrial complex, didn't he?
Impossible Social Security funding.Absurd healthcare costs.
Pathetic public school performance. Gross disparities in school systems both intra and interstate.
Completely porous borders. Did we learn anything from the first world trade center bombing? Nope. Have we from the second, more emphatic defeat? No. We will be hit and hit hard again, period, but on a much much greater scale than September 11.
Military and political ineptitude on display by yet another defeat in the field (coming soon to Iraq and Afghanistan, and proving bin Laden correct in estimate of US as a "paper tiger."
So much for the political side of the sheet. The economic consequences from this side are easily deduced.
AP Cayne sold 5.66 million shares for exactly $10.84 a share for $61.3
million. However, it was not known if those shares were dumped into the
open market or if Cayne sold them to another party.Wonder if Joseph Lewis is going to follow his path? whats going to happen to BSC today
0
AP Cayne sold 5.66 million shares for exactly $10.84 a share for $61.3
million. However, it was not known if those shares were dumped into the
open market or if Cayne sold them to another party.Wonder if Joseph Lewis is going to follow his path? whats going to happen to BSC today
I know Wall, i was just joking. They just got stupidly upgraded by Citi. who is Citi to upgrade people? Citi is about to fall apart too, according to rumors
0
I know Wall, i was just joking. They just got stupidly upgraded by Citi. who is Citi to upgrade people? Citi is about to fall apart too, according to rumors
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