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    All Forums | Investments

    March Stock Talk Part II

    «First Previous 1234 Next Last»
    Vermeer
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    «First Previous 1234 Next Last»
     
    Vermeer
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    Posted: Mar. 28, 2008 - 4:01 PM ET #26

    I am still steamed over the ethanol bullshit so pass this along...and having lived in New Orleans, and already knowing how polluted the river was while there, this burns me up.I won't add an obvious punchline about New Jersey LOL...

    Add to all that the fact that the world’s breadbasket, the United States, is starting to use more and more of its agriculture production for fuel. Subsidized ethanol and biodiesel plants are buying up corn and soybeans at record levels, with a blatant disregard for cost.

    All this caused corn production in the United States to surge 25% last year. But corn can’t grow in the United States without lots of fertilizer.

    After half a century of overfarming and record-high corn and agriculture prices, farmers are now fertilizing their fields in record amounts. Last year, farmers in the United States increased their fertilizer use by 9.9%, almost twice as much as anywhere else in the world.

    All that fertilizer doesn’t go into the ground, though. A lot of it simply runs off into the local rivers and streams. From there it flows into the Ohio and Missouri Rivers, and eventually flows into the Mississippi River.

    The Mississippi eventually deposits the fertilizer run-off into the Gulf of Mexico. All of that toxic run-off is creating the Gulf of Mexico dead zone.

    Within the zone, there are no shrimp, crab, crabs, fish or any other meaningful signs of life. Last year, the dead zone continued its expansion. It’s now larger than the state of New Jersey.



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    I am still steamed over the ethanol bullshit so pass this along...and having lived in New Orleans, and already knowing how polluted the river was while there, this burns me up.I won't add an obvious punchline about New Jersey LOL...

    Add to all that the fact that the world’s breadbasket, the United States, is starting to use more and more of its agriculture production for fuel. Subsidized ethanol and biodiesel plants are buying up corn and soybeans at record levels, with a blatant disregard for cost.

    All this caused corn production in the United States to surge 25% last year. But corn can’t grow in the United States without lots of fertilizer.

    After half a century of overfarming and record-high corn and agriculture prices, farmers are now fertilizing their fields in record amounts. Last year, farmers in the United States increased their fertilizer use by 9.9%, almost twice as much as anywhere else in the world.

    All that fertilizer doesn’t go into the ground, though. A lot of it simply runs off into the local rivers and streams. From there it flows into the Ohio and Missouri Rivers, and eventually flows into the Mississippi River.

    The Mississippi eventually deposits the fertilizer run-off into the Gulf of Mexico. All of that toxic run-off is creating the Gulf of Mexico dead zone.

    Within the zone, there are no shrimp, crab, crabs, fish or any other meaningful signs of life. Last year, the dead zone continued its expansion. It’s now larger than the state of New Jersey.



     
    AZGrinder
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    Posted: Mar. 28, 2008 - 7:32 PM ET #27

    Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

    Added to my IMB and DRYS position today...

    Hope all is well, I added to imb too, kind of mad i got greedy and didn't take better advantage of earlier in week pop when it got over 7.00.  I got 2,000 shares now....no more though. sitting on some bad drys calls april 70's that I paid 6.50 for.  My cost basis on imb aint too bad considering I have written calls against them several times.
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    Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

    Added to my IMB and DRYS position today...

    Hope all is well, I added to imb too, kind of mad i got greedy and didn't take better advantage of earlier in week pop when it got over 7.00.  I got 2,000 shares now....no more though. sitting on some bad drys calls april 70's that I paid 6.50 for.  My cost basis on imb aint too bad considering I have written calls against them several times.
     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Mar. 28, 2008 - 8:17 PM ET #28

    Grinder,

    I forgot you had some DRYS calls. I have April 75s as well which are dead but also some Jan 60s which are fine. I am also looking at some Jan 2010 70s or 80s. I doubt they will keep valuing the stock at 3 times earnings for the next 2 yrs.

    I was mad about IMB as well..some firm dumped on them today..it might take a while but I dont see them going down for the count which means the upside could be nice when we clear out of this mess.
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    Grinder,

    I forgot you had some DRYS calls. I have April 75s as well which are dead but also some Jan 60s which are fine. I am also looking at some Jan 2010 70s or 80s. I doubt they will keep valuing the stock at 3 times earnings for the next 2 yrs.

    I was mad about IMB as well..some firm dumped on them today..it might take a while but I dont see them going down for the count which means the upside could be nice when we clear out of this mess.
     
    AZGrinder
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    Posted: Mar. 28, 2008 - 8:35 PM ET #29

    thats interesting with those leaps, could even buy the 70's 2010 for 19 and sell the 140's for 6.  13 debit to make almost 60 points! Hmmm interesting....
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    thats interesting with those leaps, could even buy the 70's 2010 for 19 and sell the 140's for 6.  13 debit to make almost 60 points! Hmmm interesting....
     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Mar. 28, 2008 - 9:26 PM ET #30

    If you are selling for 6, you COULD try to bump up to the 150s. If it were me I would leg into the lower position and I feel this is a trough for the stock, meaning the chance it goes higher outweighs the chance it goes lower..you get a 10 buck move in the stock and those options will start popping a little and you could move up in strike and still have a great upside debit spread.

    I havent allowed myself to get Level III options access..cannot make that step.
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    If you are selling for 6, you COULD try to bump up to the 150s. If it were me I would leg into the lower position and I feel this is a trough for the stock, meaning the chance it goes higher outweighs the chance it goes lower..you get a 10 buck move in the stock and those options will start popping a little and you could move up in strike and still have a great upside debit spread.

    I havent allowed myself to get Level III options access..cannot make that step.
     
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    Posted: Mar. 29, 2008 - 11:20 PM ET #31

    Week ends:


    DJIA12216.40-86.06
     FTSE 1005692.90-24.60
     S&P 5001315.22-10.44
     HSI23285.95+621.73
     NASDAQ2261.18-19.65
     NIKKEI12820.47+215.89
     S&P 100610.31-4.42
     ^SPC1315.22-10.44

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    Week ends:


    DJIA12216.40-86.06
     FTSE 1005692.90-24.60
     S&P 5001315.22-10.44
     HSI23285.95+621.73
     NASDAQ2261.18-19.65
     NIKKEI12820.47+215.89
     S&P 100610.31-4.42
     ^SPC1315.22-10.44

     
    Vermeer
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    Posted: Apr. 1, 2008 - 1:39 PM ET #32


    I am wondering if we are seeing a fools rally on April Fools day.The usual suspects have declared a bottom (CNBC), however I am more inclined to agree with this assessment received on gold over the weekend:

    Gold finally hit a major top:now expecting a pullback to 850 and even the 65 MA hopefully.One thing I think is that the talking heads on CNBC are so desperate for a bottom they see it in every one day rally.

     Personally, I hope we have seen the worst of it, but I just can't make myself believe it.

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    I am wondering if we are seeing a fools rally on April Fools day.The usual suspects have declared a bottom (CNBC), however I am more inclined to agree with this assessment received on gold over the weekend:

    Gold finally hit a major top:now expecting a pullback to 850 and even the 65 MA hopefully.One thing I think is that the talking heads on CNBC are so desperate for a bottom they see it in every one day rally.

     Personally, I hope we have seen the worst of it, but I just can't make myself believe it.

     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Apr. 1, 2008 - 2:07 PM ET #33

    More than a bottom seeing LEH raise cash like they did could signal that liquidity issues are in the past, and based on the trading action of the financials it looks good so far.
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    More than a bottom seeing LEH raise cash like they did could signal that liquidity issues are in the past, and based on the trading action of the financials it looks good so far.
     
    Vermeer
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    Posted: Apr. 2, 2008 - 9:42 AM ET #34

    Penetration of the long-term rising trendline warns of a secondary correction. The metal is likely to find support at $850 in the short-term, but could go as low as $775 in the next downward leg.

    The weekly chart shows that gold experienced a similar correction in mid-2006. And we may see a similar consolidation to establish a new base this time. The primary up-trend remains intact and would only be threatened if there is a fall below support at $775.

      I think we will see a sharp rally in equities, then, when the reality of further problems and writedowns is absorbed, a decline.But it will be interesting, and certainly for a decent portion of my stuff I hope that I am wrong and that the rally is more than a mirage.




      I am keeping an eye on the stated numbers and will load up should they be met.

     
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    Penetration of the long-term rising trendline warns of a secondary correction. The metal is likely to find support at $850 in the short-term, but could go as low as $775 in the next downward leg.

    The weekly chart shows that gold experienced a similar correction in mid-2006. And we may see a similar consolidation to establish a new base this time. The primary up-trend remains intact and would only be threatened if there is a fall below support at $775.

      I think we will see a sharp rally in equities, then, when the reality of further problems and writedowns is absorbed, a decline.But it will be interesting, and certainly for a decent portion of my stuff I hope that I am wrong and that the rally is more than a mirage.




      I am keeping an eye on the stated numbers and will load up should they be met.

     
     
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    Posted: Apr. 3, 2008 - 10:16 AM ET #35

    Hopped on the SKF escalator again when it it 100...going up, or so I suspect, yet again, for another successful round trip ride...
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    Hopped on the SKF escalator again when it it 100...going up, or so I suspect, yet again, for another successful round trip ride...
     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Apr. 3, 2008 - 12:38 PM ET #36

    Vermeer,

    That is a freaky ride..I saw it getting crushed over the last few days.


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    Vermeer,

    That is a freaky ride..I saw it getting crushed over the last few days.


     
    Vermeer
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    Posted: Apr. 3, 2008 - 1:33 PM ET #37

    Yup, has been great for me though.I get on after it gets crushed by "the worst if over proclamations" and ride it up when sure enough, the worst aint over. Been very profitable. Take profits, watch it go down, then get back on.It will have to lose quite a bit (and of course I always have stops in so...no chance) to make up for all the gains this meltdown and its premature "solutions" have created for at least this cynnic.
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    Yup, has been great for me though.I get on after it gets crushed by "the worst if over proclamations" and ride it up when sure enough, the worst aint over. Been very profitable. Take profits, watch it go down, then get back on.It will have to lose quite a bit (and of course I always have stops in so...no chance) to make up for all the gains this meltdown and its premature "solutions" have created for at least this cynnic.
     
    Vermeer
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    Posted: Apr. 3, 2008 - 1:34 PM ET #38


    PS

     It ain't over by a long shot.

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    PS

     It ain't over by a long shot.

     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Apr. 3, 2008 - 1:42 PM ET #39

    GOOG getting mushed..I havent found any news but down 15 on some strong volume.


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    GOOG getting mushed..I havent found any news but down 15 on some strong volume.


     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Apr. 3, 2008 - 2:34 PM ET #40

    BSC link

    I actually AGREE with Ben on this one, the "aide" which probably hasnt been used, was definately needed. If Bear had gone under then the secondary market for the paper and derivitives they hold would have been frozen and decimated with the selling.

    This shows that congress and the general public only understand concepts they read in the papers or what are in front of their face.

    People think that the FED bailed out Bear and did it off the backs of taxpayers, when in reality that is not the issue. The taxpayers and institutions would have been hurt much more if Bear had gone under and the financial markets would have needed to digest the selling brought from the unwinding.

    The morale of the story here is that the FED and the governing/regulatory authorities let the margin rules go out of control and nobody was regulating the leverage Bear and others had/have and THAT is what caused this situation.
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    BSC link

    I actually AGREE with Ben on this one, the "aide" which probably hasnt been used, was definately needed. If Bear had gone under then the secondary market for the paper and derivitives they hold would have been frozen and decimated with the selling.

    This shows that congress and the general public only understand concepts they read in the papers or what are in front of their face.

    People think that the FED bailed out Bear and did it off the backs of taxpayers, when in reality that is not the issue. The taxpayers and institutions would have been hurt much more if Bear had gone under and the financial markets would have needed to digest the selling brought from the unwinding.

    The morale of the story here is that the FED and the governing/regulatory authorities let the margin rules go out of control and nobody was regulating the leverage Bear and others had/have and THAT is what caused this situation.
     
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    Posted: Apr. 3, 2008 - 9:39 PM ET #41

     I agree with all you say Wall.There is no doubt to me that they had to deal with the Bear situation, as they did deal with it. A pity it came to that, and as one critic responded to the question, "do you give credit to Bernanke for handling this correctly", he asked, "Why credit a person who helped create the mess  in the first place??"
     
    An article on Soros' thinking

    https://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ajkPSW_domB4&refer=home
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     I agree with all you say Wall.There is no doubt to me that they had to deal with the Bear situation, as they did deal with it. A pity it came to that, and as one critic responded to the question, "do you give credit to Bernanke for handling this correctly", he asked, "Why credit a person who helped create the mess  in the first place??"
     
    An article on Soros' thinking

    https://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ajkPSW_domB4&refer=home
     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Apr. 3, 2008 - 9:43 PM ET #42

    Vermeer,

    I dont blame Bernanke more than I would blame any other fed member. The blame goes on Greenspam and only him.

    Greenie was the attention hog and the market hawk and he allowed these things to develop on his watch and not take action.


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    Vermeer,

    I dont blame Bernanke more than I would blame any other fed member. The blame goes on Greenspam and only him.

    Greenie was the attention hog and the market hawk and he allowed these things to develop on his watch and not take action.


     
    Vermeer
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    Posted: Apr. 3, 2008 - 9:44 PM ET #43

      The things I took from above cited article that matched my thinking...

    `This will probably not prove to be the final bottom,'' he said, adding the rebound may last six weeks to three months as the U.S. moves closer to a recession.

    Soros has bet on declines in the dollar, 10-year Treasuries and U.S. and European stocks this year. He expected foreign currencies to rise, as well as Chinese and Indian equities. The latter bet helped Quantum return 32 percent in 2007. Quantum's returns this year have ranged from up 3 percent to down 3 percent.

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      The things I took from above cited article that matched my thinking...

    `This will probably not prove to be the final bottom,'' he said, adding the rebound may last six weeks to three months as the U.S. moves closer to a recession.

    Soros has bet on declines in the dollar, 10-year Treasuries and U.S. and European stocks this year. He expected foreign currencies to rise, as well as Chinese and Indian equities. The latter bet helped Quantum return 32 percent in 2007. Quantum's returns this year have ranged from up 3 percent to down 3 percent.

     
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    Posted: Apr. 3, 2008 - 9:56 PM ET #44


     I am not privy to the individual stands Bernanke took while serving, but...he bears some of the responsibility, as do all the members who did not dissent from Greenie's actions.

     
     I know I have asked this before, but I remain plagued by how to set proper stop loss limits. Any site or book you can recommend that would give me a firmer notion...as it is I am wasting way too much time monitoring things individually.Any basic rule of thumb you use? Excuse if I have forgotten what you said, and I know it varies by volatility of an issue.

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     I am not privy to the individual stands Bernanke took while serving, but...he bears some of the responsibility, as do all the members who did not dissent from Greenie's actions.

     
     I know I have asked this before, but I remain plagued by how to set proper stop loss limits. Any site or book you can recommend that would give me a firmer notion...as it is I am wasting way too much time monitoring things individually.Any basic rule of thumb you use? Excuse if I have forgotten what you said, and I know it varies by volatility of an issue.

     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Apr. 3, 2008 - 11:36 PM ET #45

    Vermeer,

    There are all sorts of ways to think about stop losses. If  you read 5 books you might get 3 different views.

    Try and figure out what works for YOU and stick to it. If that means a 2% stop, a stop right below a moving average you deem important, if it is a 10% stop, it all depends on what YOU want. People might think you should do a 1 down 3 up approach, meaning allow 1/3 of what you want on the upside to the downside..and that way the losers cannot conqueor the winners.

    The difficulty isnt finding a strategy, it is STICKING to the strategy, that is the tough part.
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    Vermeer,

    There are all sorts of ways to think about stop losses. If  you read 5 books you might get 3 different views.

    Try and figure out what works for YOU and stick to it. If that means a 2% stop, a stop right below a moving average you deem important, if it is a 10% stop, it all depends on what YOU want. People might think you should do a 1 down 3 up approach, meaning allow 1/3 of what you want on the upside to the downside..and that way the losers cannot conqueor the winners.

    The difficulty isnt finding a strategy, it is STICKING to the strategy, that is the tough part.
     
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    Posted: Apr. 3, 2008 - 11:59 PM ET #46


     Thanks Wall...I am usually very deliberate (overly so) in coming to conclusions, and I have enmeshed myself in poring over each issue, debating whether one stock's volatility demands a loose stop as opposed to a tight one, etc etc.

     I have no problems allocating amounts, usually limiting myself to 2% per trade, and do OK in maintaining a diversified portfolio (although I do have a weakness for energy related issues).

    But I have yet to settle on a simple this is the way it will be for all in stop loss strategy. Been mulling it over for months, and like you say, I have read various methods, advice etc etc etc.

      Thanks. I have no problems taking losses or profits on a given trade.I do not mind getting stopped out even though it may turn out to be a whipsaw goatscrew.

    I am more concerned about knowing how to adjust in a favorable trade so I lock in profits without all the daily review I have been doing.

     But I daily review almost all positions anyway so it may just have to get used to it.Don't want it to become obsessive however.

     

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     Thanks Wall...I am usually very deliberate (overly so) in coming to conclusions, and I have enmeshed myself in poring over each issue, debating whether one stock's volatility demands a loose stop as opposed to a tight one, etc etc.

     I have no problems allocating amounts, usually limiting myself to 2% per trade, and do OK in maintaining a diversified portfolio (although I do have a weakness for energy related issues).

    But I have yet to settle on a simple this is the way it will be for all in stop loss strategy. Been mulling it over for months, and like you say, I have read various methods, advice etc etc etc.

      Thanks. I have no problems taking losses or profits on a given trade.I do not mind getting stopped out even though it may turn out to be a whipsaw goatscrew.

    I am more concerned about knowing how to adjust in a favorable trade so I lock in profits without all the daily review I have been doing.

     But I daily review almost all positions anyway so it may just have to get used to it.Don't want it to become obsessive however.

     

     
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    Posted: Apr. 4, 2008 - 12:05 AM ET #47


     PS:

     Is there an easy way to determine precisely what percentage of a company's revenues originate from international holdings? I keep reading conflicting reports on company X's earning coming from overseas...where do you go to get such estimates, if you use them?

      I have become irritated lately at the number of people throwing different numbers around for such things as percentage of the American economy is consumer spending (anywhere from 50 to 75% depending on the source.) Lots of talking heads using numbers that sound impressive but which seem to vary from person to person.
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     PS:

     Is there an easy way to determine precisely what percentage of a company's revenues originate from international holdings? I keep reading conflicting reports on company X's earning coming from overseas...where do you go to get such estimates, if you use them?

      I have become irritated lately at the number of people throwing different numbers around for such things as percentage of the American economy is consumer spending (anywhere from 50 to 75% depending on the source.) Lots of talking heads using numbers that sound impressive but which seem to vary from person to person.
     
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    Posted: Apr. 4, 2008 - 8:57 AM ET #48

    Another opinion on SKF.I just ride it up, get off, then ride it back up as hope springs eternal.

    The recent run-up in the financial sector, triggered by Lehman Brothers' (LEH) capital raising and announcements that UBS (UBS) will be writing off $19 billion, has led to a dramatic decrease in the ProShares UltraShort Financial Sector ETF (SKF). The SKF peaked around $150 in early March as financial companies' stocks were battered by rumors about Bear Stearns (BSC) being insolvent, and then the "come to fruition" moment when investors learned the true extent of their situation. Since then, the SKF has dropped about 33% and now trades around $100.

    These circumstances have led me to compile a few questions that I am asking myself in order to understand why the markets think that the Financial sector is ready for an about-face. A few of these issues were recently mentioned on Reggie Middleton's "BoomBust Blog", which I find to be a very good source of independent thinking and analysis.

    Reggie writes the following in his articled entitled "Now More Than Ever Requires Patient Investing" related to the extreme volatility we are witnessing in the equity markets, and how extreme volatility can be a signal of a coming drop:

    Add in today’s fundamentals (residential/commercial real estate, leveraged loans, monolines, credit crunch, strapped consumer, probably recession, cyclical downturn in banking and real assets, multiple bubbles popping) and where you see the moving average going combined with the aggressive bull run you see we just came off of, and it looks like we should be prepared for a drop…

    So, with the following issues (a cyclical downturn in banking, a housing market that still has yet to stabilize, leveraged loan, home equity loan, and credit card debt exposure, credit markets that are still tight, all-time high corporate profit margins, and consumers who are tapped out, not to mention rising energy prices), I am left wondering what those who have driven up market values of companies in the financial sector know that I don't? Or are they not buying on fundamentals at all, and rather HOPING that the worst is behind us?

    I for one would prefer to invest my hard earned money on fundamentals rather than on hope. Hope may work well in campaigning for President, but in the financial markets, it is generally not a profitable investment strategy.


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    Another opinion on SKF.I just ride it up, get off, then ride it back up as hope springs eternal.

    The recent run-up in the financial sector, triggered by Lehman Brothers' (LEH) capital raising and announcements that UBS (UBS) will be writing off $19 billion, has led to a dramatic decrease in the ProShares UltraShort Financial Sector ETF (SKF). The SKF peaked around $150 in early March as financial companies' stocks were battered by rumors about Bear Stearns (BSC) being insolvent, and then the "come to fruition" moment when investors learned the true extent of their situation. Since then, the SKF has dropped about 33% and now trades around $100.

    These circumstances have led me to compile a few questions that I am asking myself in order to understand why the markets think that the Financial sector is ready for an about-face. A few of these issues were recently mentioned on Reggie Middleton's "BoomBust Blog", which I find to be a very good source of independent thinking and analysis.

    Reggie writes the following in his articled entitled "Now More Than Ever Requires Patient Investing" related to the extreme volatility we are witnessing in the equity markets, and how extreme volatility can be a signal of a coming drop:

    Add in today’s fundamentals (residential/commercial real estate, leveraged loans, monolines, credit crunch, strapped consumer, probably recession, cyclical downturn in banking and real assets, multiple bubbles popping) and where you see the moving average going combined with the aggressive bull run you see we just came off of, and it looks like we should be prepared for a drop…

    So, with the following issues (a cyclical downturn in banking, a housing market that still has yet to stabilize, leveraged loan, home equity loan, and credit card debt exposure, credit markets that are still tight, all-time high corporate profit margins, and consumers who are tapped out, not to mention rising energy prices), I am left wondering what those who have driven up market values of companies in the financial sector know that I don't? Or are they not buying on fundamentals at all, and rather HOPING that the worst is behind us?

    I for one would prefer to invest my hard earned money on fundamentals rather than on hope. Hope may work well in campaigning for President, but in the financial markets, it is generally not a profitable investment strategy.


     
    whereismyhat
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    Posted: Apr. 4, 2008 - 1:48 PM ET #49

    ACUS has doubled since last week
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    ACUS has doubled since last week
     
     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Apr. 4, 2008 - 2:44 PM ET #50

    Same goes for FRPT, I am sure Rat is quite pissed seeing the move.
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    Same goes for FRPT, I am sure Rat is quite pissed seeing the move.
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