Market Runners

I looked up those symbols...sheesh MYO is a huge RS machine, really bad. Looks like the low float will be used to raise cash. To go from 400 to 2 in 3 years, well that is a feat.

CERC market cap is big, range is small...not sure the angle there, seems like a range trader.

REXN is another massive RS machine....so do these big time RS machines have prospects that you see in their businesses? That REXN has been stealing from shareholders for ten years, a blip or two but a serious grind down and no relief.

I like PCLN reverses...do it once to save your butt and then claw your way out to never return...the ones who steal over and over and over are just that, companies likely overpaying their execs and conning the investor who sees the chart and thinks it could return. People do not understand that the chart is the devil...those corps have stolen that market cap in exchange for cash...that valuation history is a mirage.

Yes, moving up or down too quickly in a 5 minute period triggers it.  KODK had 5 or 6 big halts on its huge run, i think WWR recently had one. I mentioned they have gotten the algos tuned up for this, which drops the price right before the halt would take place. That keeps people flooding in to buy, and keeps the upward momentum going. 

These halts usually blow out retail short sellers.  

Options are a whole other world. I feel like an idiot for not just buying TSLA calls for 3 straight months. I'd have been a multi millionaire, but shame on me for thinking a little 

That isnt a swipe at buck, he had no idea that OMER acts that way but they for sure do...throw out some news and toss an offering out to get the cash. Its sickening for such a large company.

What he is saying you can learn...he is saying they have prop software that has found stocks that fall into a category and you can take advantage of their mode of operation...they will put out news so they can sell stock and raise money for operations. I kind of feel the SEC should strangle companies like this but they allow it for some reason...so if you can identify companies in this cycle and take a position ahead of their scam then you can make out as these guys do.

So are you able to define the different terms in a bit more detail, you mention colors and different percentages. If you could break down the terms that would be of interest to me and how many potential candidates are there in your universe and with that how do you narrow down the candidates? I know you mentioned reading the corporate filings but you also mentioned people have lower win ratios vs others and that has to be about selection and doing more on higher quality candidates. I get the impression the bigger people involved are more selective vs some people using your software and maybe those people will find more candidates and trade more often.

I would also wager that some inexperienced players looking for a return are not going to leg into a position or be patient while they see other candidates moving while theirs is not.

This is probably my 5th post of the day, so I will likely disappear until tomorrow. 

The model has a variety of different ways to search and sort all 5900 symbols. 

By sector

Days until a FST

Financial status

EM Band Status - EM0/EM1/EM2 or above

There's an option to search for stocks that only have Options available via CBOE. 

Very hard to describe without being able to show examples of different types of plays.  (if next sentence not allowed, please delete) I post tons of charts to our twitter account where you can see a lot of different runners over the last few weeks, and what those looked like

In our universe - just for some examples - I could narrow down/expand this in 100 different searches 

There are 634 tickers that are currently in a FST window, or will be within 90 days -  They include Fortune 500 companies, and of course the $1 junkers

There are 108 "bread and butter" plays - Biotech/ Green financial health/tracing inside the EM risk bands - 39 of which are at EM1 or EM0 status

There are 80 symbols tracing at EM0 or lower - Green financial health- showcasing an 80 cycle price convergence -  meaning that these are in incredible control by market makers for one reason or another

People with lower win % play lots of different plays. People see the bright red FST line, and think a stock will always run up in the window. Most of the time that is true, but not always.  The red line signifies volatility, but price movement is not guaranteed. 

If you want a good gambling analogy, degenerates always need to have action.  Its very similar here.  You could make 1 hell of a living playing only "bread and butter" plays like above.  bio/green financial/green risk   but you might only have 2 plays in a month, but you can size larger on these because the risk/reward is in your favor. 

Degenerates need action,  so they spread plays around to some FSTs here,  some safe bios there   some medium risk sectors plays (think a Chineese EV or Solar play).  Those skew the win % results, but this is not like gambling where its win/lose only.   A "loss" here might just mean a 20% trailing stop is hit,  or even a play that sits for a month, and you sell for a 5% loss just because it is not reacting like it should. 

I missed this sentence, but you are 100% correct.  Even I am guilty of this. I've exited positions and took 5-6% profits just because a position was green, and I wanted to move to cash because of overall market conditions... and of course 3 days later those positions would run 30-40% as expected, and i'm left in the dust. Just part of the territory of not being patient. 

The development of our buy signal at the end of August has helped incredibly, as we are not experiencing the extreme drawdowns we once did. it was very normal/expected some times to experience a 40% drawdown on some positions if the entry timing wasn't correct.  That has definitely improved significantly now. 

So what is the time history this system has been in place with results? I am not a fan of back testing because that is done and not fluid in a real situation...kind of like paper trading which is nothing like when cash is on the table.

SNSS holy crap....that is one of the worst RS charts Ive seen and you have shown me many...are these guys just burning money for a business? Its a non-stop march down...even this year where it looks like they have not done an RS lately. The bumps look like 100% returns but if you are not cashing out on the bump then the thing has been doing nothing but straight tanking for 5 years. So let me guess, I have not even looked but they are a one trick pony where something was cooking a few times and it crapped out so the drop just keeps happening....kind of like VVUS (Ive been watching VVUS since mid 90s)

The model has been coded and in testing for 2 years.  Prior to that, the spreadsheets that this was derived from had existed for quite a while. We'll just say real money is being managed based on the model and the results beat the S&P by... a bit.  The fund exposure has been scaled back to less than 10%, until the election is over and things settle down.  I believe they went to mostly cash at the beginning of August, with only select plays and COVID related symbols. 

Personally, 1 partner is up 435% YTD and I am up about 115%. I'd be up way more, but I have a slight daytrading sickness, and leak too much profit out the back door that should be tied up in all model plays. I think that goes back to my gambling history. 

As for SNSS, I don't see anything attractive there to be honest.  This actually looks like it might be a reverse merger candidate, as I see a few things that stick out to me.  That would actually make for a large run if true.  

Sunesis is conducting an Investigational New Drug (“IND”)-enabling program for SNS-510 and plan to file an IND by the end of 2020

This will be the pump, if there is one. 

We'll see how the buy signal works.  The one we have coded can predict a 15% move within 3 day at 74% accuracy.    The buy indicator I use personally provides similar results, I am just a week earlier to the party usually, and catch more of the explosive runs.  The coded buy signal is still way under development.

So you think the program is sort of beating the SPX? Well I would hope so for the time and effort put in for that purpose. Id kind of expect a large outperformance given that the signals should result in a decent percentage move. I also thought it odd that you went to cash since August...I would think the cycle for what this targets is not at all related to the general market sentiment?

I saw that SNSS has in effect burned through its entire market cap for the last 5 years...the cash burn has been between 25-35M a year with very little to show for it. Id also bet that the salaries of the execs are quite high...usually that is how it seems to work.

You must have missed the 400% return figure?  That's easy to do on a 6 figure account of personal money. I'd estimate he will finish up 600% to end the year... maybe not as easy/logical from an institutional standpoint, with.... more, under management.  The fund advisor is 100% risk averse, limited home run plays only.  Hence, pulling out mid august. 

Yes, the plays are not effected as much, but drawdown is real.  IWM went from 160 Mid August to 142 end of September... IBB 145 end of July to 125 Mid Sept.  No need for the exposure, if a play is not there.

Personal type plays are much different than the fund official plays is what I'm saying.  If the fund can make take 15 positions in a year, and average 40-60% return with a few 100%+,  its going to be a pretty good year. 

Look at IBB the last 6 days... Down 10  its definitely pulling down smaller symbols as well

I took what you said above as implying you might or sort of beat the SPX...which was surprising to hear given the nature of the software, so that was how my comment was based.

The larger biotech basket for sure is not this bunch...lol maybe 1 in 300 will make it there one day, if those baskets had the micro names the swings would be nutzo...lol

If you want to send me any specifics on your organization send me a PM...I appreciate that you are NOT listing any info because we do not allow it. 

Not enough volume to get out near the high...that spike was probably on a few hundred shares with a wide spread. Not even 100k traded today.

there were 775k shares exchanged between 709am and 716am.   Plenty of volume to sell into.   Several members were on that one and had predetermined GTC orders ranging from $575-$7

Daily volume is already at 18 million shares. I think you need a better data feed? 

The bots had predetermined sells at 5.86

A little speculation they might blow this one through the roof.  Price is  520 here at 1018am....  Lets see if it crawls in its hole and dies, or they squeeze the hell out of it around lunch time

I do not have pre-market info but my feed said when I posted that there was 58k traded at that time and the peak high was on minimal value, now still up 20% but quite off the highs.

Almost all of these plays run at 7am.  I'd say roughly 90% at 7am.  5% at 405pm  and 5% around the lunch hour. 

Some foreign issuers will run at 4am, since they are dual listed on the TASE or another exchange.   Very, very few nd far between on those though. 

Yeah I think my feed was messed up...I should have logged in to my brokerage acct vs online sites.

Lunchtime squeeze up to $6. But stick a fork in her, this one is cooked now

So very interesting to watch ETTX. I got stopped out yesterday, but flipped my position 2x before so made a small profit overall. This was not the short squeeze for warrant conversions we expected. 

Not sure if this is a short and cover, into an offering, then a blow out... but will be a great one to keep following

I saw that today, hitting the 52 week and everything else low. So you set a 20% stop loss and dont vary from it versus doing a leg into a position for lower cost basis? I tend to like to leg in and out vs buy all in one gulp then set a stop loss.

I was checking out your page and some youtube information, it would be smart if you explained and gave fresh examples for people checking you out. The data you list is from a month ago (the summary vs SPX etc).

Nice bump on your SNSS, not to your sell target but nicer move all day.

So after a little snooping I found more info and read a bit of your real time or at least more real time content...no need to say more on that topic. My question is how much of a roll are your members using and where are you placing limit orders for pre-market? You cant get limit orders in for pre and post market at firms I know of anyway...so unless you are babysitting how are you guys catching the limit orders to sell pre-market?

How many active users are there and are all of them keeping those P&L summaries? Id be interested in shadow trial your stuff, I dont think 14 days is enough to investigate, research and learn and even try a trade or two..sometimes your trades take weeks or longer to unfold so how could someone in 14 days know if they are going to use the service well? Is the chat/forum feature used heavily and do you guys send out triggers or updates for opportunities in real time for members?

That is a bunch of questions I know...

The questions are what I’m actually here for. I knew there would be 100% more intelligent conversation here than most of the other financial discussion outlets, and I haven’t been disappointed. It allows me to explain our approach to someone with 0 exposure to the model, and helps me improve a variety of things internally. 

Size - we have a hand full of folks around 10k allocated to the model. We have many who are in the 50-100k.  And there’s definitely some we know of that have more. 

Timing - all brokers allow pre market or AH market executions. You just have to turn it on. If taking a passive approach, and wanting to set and forget a sell price, then it has to be a broker that offers GTC_EXT trades.  TDA is one that does in terms of free trade brokers. I have a small fidelity fun account, and I know they do not offer that. But of course I have no problem logging in at 7am to execute a live trade. 

There’s a good iPhone app that we recommend that  provides push and SMS alerts from 4am-8pm. In fact, I got one last night at 7pm to let me know RHE hit my 1.80 target price.  50% increase on that one in the month of October FYI   I’m out of it, but still one to watch to see if it is ran for some reason