October Stock Talk 4

i would expect some buying at the bell end of day probably down 450 pts

this is the re-test so i would put a bottom of the dow @ 8300 - 8400

They are trying to rally it a bit, off 150 from the lows already but I would be shocked if they get it into the 200 area.

Probably see more panic selling in the last 20 min and I think close down 600+.

Depeche,

If she sells off like that and opens down tomorrow large I am going in for the gamble trade.

Down 650 and moving..

Might be 7 to end the day here.

this 7% up and down shit everyday is maddening

baldy and the beard need to force banks to open their books. there's no confidence b/c we dont know they own

The way that they sold it down 150 in less than 10 minutes goes to show that there are no market participants, very little volume and a little selling makes for HUGE moves.

If there is a morning selloff tomorrow, what should I look to pick up, aside from DRYS? 

depeche,

I am thinking of looking at the SPY or an ETF for a short term move, some fellas here have been doing well on the  UYG.

Looks like Ebay is getting hit in after hours and the QQQQQQQQQs are down as well, tomorrow should be down.

Here are a few names that I think are great deals at this price longer term-

BRCM
RMBS
VLO
DPTR
CCJ
AKS
FTO
COP
JNPR
ENER (especially for a short term swing)

There are quite a few names out there for short term moves..check out the drop on POT today..that is a group that if commodities get a bump it will move over 100 fast..POT, IPI, MOS,MON etc

Wallstreet -

How do the current BDI levels impact the DRYS ships that are currently not under long term contract?  I.e. do they have to accept the current level of rates that the BDI currently trades at?  Or since they are a well run company with newer ships they'll get a rate that is a premium.  That is the thing I don't understand.  How reflective is the BDI of the current DRYS spot charter rates.  Any comments would be appreciated.

I am seriously considering putting my whole account into GLD puts.  Gold is still mainly used for jewelry and jewelry sales will be plummeting as the economy slows.  Sure there is still a percentage of investors who get into gold as a safety play, but after a 300%+ move up in the last few years, I don't think gold is all that safe at these levels.  Every other bubble has popped and I think gold is living on borrowed time at these levels.

I do think you may be right down the road with the inflation call, but it will probably not be anytime soon.

I think our financial gurus are much like our generals, always fighting (and losing) the last war.I have been amused that people are reassured that Bernanke has mastered the true lessons of the Great Depression, while apparently forgetting derivatives played no part in it.They truly were/are the weapons of mass destruction that WB said they were.

I think Roubini has been consistently correct (despite being seemingly continually dismissed) so I will simply quote him:

“At this point the recession train has left the station; the financial and banking crisis train has left the station. The delusion that the U.S. and advanced economies contraction would be short and shallow – a V-shaped six month recession – has been replaced by the certainty that this will be a long and protracted U-shaped recession that may last at least two years in the U.S. and close to two years in most of the rest of the world. And given the rising risk of a global systemic financial meltdown, the probability that the outcome could become a decade long L-shaped recession– like the one experienced by Japan after the bursting of its real estate and equity bubble – cannot be ruled out.

“At this point the risk of an imminent stock market crash – like the one-day collapse of 20% plus in U.S. stock prices in 1987 – cannot be ruled out as the financial system is breaking down, panic and lack of confidence in any counterparty is sharply rising and the investors have
totally lost faith in the ability of policy authorities to control this meltdown.

“A vicious circle of deleveraging, asset collapses, margin calls, and cascading falls in asset prices well below falling fundamentals, and panic is now underway.”

VH2,

Good question..the fleet that is not on LTC is either in a pool of ships called Baumarine or on spot and if they are on spot depending on the length of run while on spot, they CAN be subject to current spot rates..I watch a few sites for charter info and once in a while I see our ships being on the list.

Keep in mind that at current pricing they are fearing the WORST for every bulker, even worse than the worst..some are trading near BK pricing and DRYS is well undervalued as we know already.

To answer your question, I think spot and BDI numbers are not reflective of current rates being negociated..the spot rates are reflective of the FFAs which are just freight futures and the BDI is a summation of quotes from different shippers. Currently there is no real strong gauge of charter rates since most of the ship owners dont report charters every single day, that would be a waste of time.

Check this out and see what I am talking about-

LINK

and

LINK

Then compare what you see to current spot and you will find huge discrepancies and that is the nature of the group..when spot and BDI rates were really high I recall seeing most charters below that ammt and I think both the BDI and spot are not reflective of actual chartered rates.

There is no doubt that DRYS is being effected by these low rates, none at all but at 20 bucks I think they are discounting pretty much everything good and including plenty that is bad.

Inflation is going to save this economy IMHO.  It's going to help those in deep debt (and there are many) get out of it.

Gold is not having a very good morning    

 In addition to what Ben thinks he has learned from the Depression, he realizes that this country actually manufactured items at that time.

Now we have 75% consumer fueled economy, and gee the consumer has a lot of debt and thought their houses were going to always appreciate in value.

Guess again.