Posted:
#76
October Stock Talk II
Posted:
#80
WSC-
Yep, those were also severe times, for sure. The 2000 implosion of tech, though, was only tech in March of that year-----the "old economy" held on until September, and then went caput.
JAX-
SMN, I would say, is way overbought. But yes, it can go to 678 for all we know in this sort of atmosphere.
Posted:
#82
Wall, you may wish to reserve judgment over what trumps what...methinks we are just warming up for the real roasting to come.As usual I hope I am wrong but...
The SKF trade remains the most consistent thing I have dealt with in a while. Buy at 100, listen to some dolt announce a new program and "the end of the crisis", and then wait. Put a stop loss in at 140, and repeat...
Posted:
#83
WSC-
Believe it or not, I am not nearly as bearish long term as I was a few weeks ago.
Why? The almighty "market" (price of commodities) is basically pricing in a depression, so that tells me right there it won't happen right now. The media have piled on, too, so that is another negative. Thirdly, too many from "the public" would now agree with warlord and fiefdom talk, so strike 3.
Hey, I ante-d up Monday with 2 longterms----SYY and GTLS. Need something to beat money markets.
Posted:
#85
Jason-
I'm getting more and more positive and bullish by the day. The public always gets it wrong.
Warlords and fiefdoms aren't coming any time soon.
Since this is also a sports gambling site, what does "TO" think of the economy and what stocks are undervalued right now?
"Pacman" Jones?
Jerry Jones?
little danny snyder (taking a whuppin on Six Flags and Johnny Rockets....hahahahahahahaha)?
Roger Federer?
Tiger Woods?
Jenna Jameson?
Maria Sharapova?
Just trying to add some humor to a dismal day.
Posted:
#88
CC,
I made the comment in a nice way, that you are the resident bunker specialist and that piece was pretty damn bearish.
Not sure if you guys were trading (outside Koaj) back when the Naz went from 5k plus to 1800 in 9 months but that is the equiv of seeing the DOW go from 13k to 6k or less, so even though this is pretty broad it doesnt compare to the Naz disaster and the tech destruction it brought.
The fear in the market after they opened after 9-11 was stronger than this..fear in the general population which is nothing compared to this. I think THIS fear isnt understood yet by the general population, that it is inside economic circles versus the general population because it cannot be explained or quantified to the average joe.
I have that builder friend I reference and he keeps sending me these stupid Clinton bashing youtube clips saying it was Clinton back in 1996 who modified the housing regulations to lend more to the lower income and that magically created the subprime mess. I had to gently explain it to him that his republican POV was wrong and that it was leverage that caused this and the LOSS on a lower price range property is nothing compared to a mid to high range house..so 2-3 of those terrible low income defaulters can go bad versus one in the neighborhood he lives. It never ceases to amaze me how repubs equate lower income as the cause of social ills.
I am seeing more and more income bond funds popping up on my new lows list..NMT, MEN, VAZ, GYC, PHB, JPP, MUS all hitting lows.
I made the comment in a nice way, that you are the resident bunker specialist and that piece was pretty damn bearish.
Not sure if you guys were trading (outside Koaj) back when the Naz went from 5k plus to 1800 in 9 months but that is the equiv of seeing the DOW go from 13k to 6k or less, so even though this is pretty broad it doesnt compare to the Naz disaster and the tech destruction it brought.
The fear in the market after they opened after 9-11 was stronger than this..fear in the general population which is nothing compared to this. I think THIS fear isnt understood yet by the general population, that it is inside economic circles versus the general population because it cannot be explained or quantified to the average joe.
I have that builder friend I reference and he keeps sending me these stupid Clinton bashing youtube clips saying it was Clinton back in 1996 who modified the housing regulations to lend more to the lower income and that magically created the subprime mess. I had to gently explain it to him that his republican POV was wrong and that it was leverage that caused this and the LOSS on a lower price range property is nothing compared to a mid to high range house..so 2-3 of those terrible low income defaulters can go bad versus one in the neighborhood he lives. It never ceases to amaze me how repubs equate lower income as the cause of social ills.
I am seeing more and more income bond funds popping up on my new lows list..NMT, MEN, VAZ, GYC, PHB, JPP, MUS all hitting lows.
Posted:
#92
Jason-
"Leverage" in options simply means being able to potentially use lots more shares than you could by holding the common (long or short).
1 contract equals 100 shares with options.
For istance, take JPM for example. Oct 32.5 calls trade for about 9 bucks a contract. Buy 1 contract for 900 bucks, and you got "potentially" control of 100 shares. To do that with common, it would cost 4100 dollars, or thereabouts.
Problem with options are these:
1) Spreads
2) Time decay
3) Illiquidity
Posted:
#93
JWK,
You are welcome here and with your experience and insight I hope you hang around more.
Ive made my 10 paragraph explanation of this so many times I embarrass myself..here it is in a nutshell.
Lenders were giving more loans relative to assets than they should have and banking regulators and lending regulators werent stopping this from happening..so now instead of Wamu taking a hit on some loans because of a bad RE market, they lent so much and were LEVERAGED that as bad loans started coming in, they started getting margin calls from THEIR lenders and had to bring more cash to cover not only bad mortgages but the margin calls on top of normal losses.
Investment firms were purchasing CDO's at monster margin ratios, so instead of the CDO's going down and the bank having some losses on paper, since they bought so much of the instruments relative to their assets, they were leveraged and now these instruments come down a little and they start getting margin calls, thats why C and GS and others have been raising capital for the last year..then when firms like BSC couldnt go to the window and borrow enough, the CDO trading market started to freeze since firms were trying to sell and nobody was buying..then due to accounting rules, these investments are "mark to market" or valued at the BID of the market..so as the CDO market froze, the bid started dropping and the "value" started to drop because of them being illiquid and more margin calls, a tsunami in the CDO market due to an illiquid market.
The real value of the CDOs on a lower leveraged basis probably isnt that bad but if you margin at MONSTER rates, a little drop outside their computer model caused disasterous results.
You are welcome here and with your experience and insight I hope you hang around more.
Ive made my 10 paragraph explanation of this so many times I embarrass myself..here it is in a nutshell.
Lenders were giving more loans relative to assets than they should have and banking regulators and lending regulators werent stopping this from happening..so now instead of Wamu taking a hit on some loans because of a bad RE market, they lent so much and were LEVERAGED that as bad loans started coming in, they started getting margin calls from THEIR lenders and had to bring more cash to cover not only bad mortgages but the margin calls on top of normal losses.
Investment firms were purchasing CDO's at monster margin ratios, so instead of the CDO's going down and the bank having some losses on paper, since they bought so much of the instruments relative to their assets, they were leveraged and now these instruments come down a little and they start getting margin calls, thats why C and GS and others have been raising capital for the last year..then when firms like BSC couldnt go to the window and borrow enough, the CDO trading market started to freeze since firms were trying to sell and nobody was buying..then due to accounting rules, these investments are "mark to market" or valued at the BID of the market..so as the CDO market froze, the bid started dropping and the "value" started to drop because of them being illiquid and more margin calls, a tsunami in the CDO market due to an illiquid market.
The real value of the CDOs on a lower leveraged basis probably isnt that bad but if you margin at MONSTER rates, a little drop outside their computer model caused disasterous results.
Posted:
#95
Am pretty sure someone is going to drop a bomb overnight to "roil the markets" at tomorrow's open.
Just have that feeling that something bad is about to happen in some damn country between now and tomorrow's open.
Anyone who's up in today's trades? Take profits.....may not be there tomorrow morning.
Posted:
#99
350 point DOW drop in last 30 minutes------on top of what? 7 down days in a row now?
When will peeps capitulate? 7500 on Dow? 7200 on Dow? 0.00 on Dow?
Crazy.
Makes me think something bad is going to happen overnight. As in REALLY, REALLY, REALLY BAD----not just some random financial company "warning" about Q3-----as if no one knew.
This last 30 minutes has me believing an entire country goes caput tonight------along with everything in it (debts and all).
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