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    All Forums | Investments

    September Stock Talk I

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    VirginiaHoldem2
    wallstreetcappers
    Vermeer
    claycourtlesson
    jaxwhitey
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    Views: 2001
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    VirginiaHoldem2
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    Posted: Sep. 1, 2008 - 9:14 PM ET #1

    Lets get this party started right!

    What is everyone's general opinion on how September will treat us?  Status quo as people sit on the sidelines anticipating September earnings?  Waiting around to see how the financial crisis treats us?

    Look forward to hearing everyone's opinions. 
    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    Lets get this party started right!

    What is everyone's general opinion on how September will treat us?  Status quo as people sit on the sidelines anticipating September earnings?  Waiting around to see how the financial crisis treats us?

    Look forward to hearing everyone's opinions. 
     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Sep. 1, 2008 - 11:33 PM ET #2

    My gut tells me they sell off commodities more, maybe try to prop financials only to sell later.

    Volume boys back tomorrow, it should be very interesting.
    Reply
    My gut tells me they sell off commodities more, maybe try to prop financials only to sell later.

    Volume boys back tomorrow, it should be very interesting.
     
    Vermeer
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    Posted: Sep. 1, 2008 - 11:46 PM ET #3

       Historically a bad month as I recall. Big hitters as Wall says are back from the Hamptons...I think Wall's expectations summarize my own.I think the Financial sector will try to be buttressed, but the reality of the damage will overwhelm the efforts...

      I think the consumer is in much worse shape than the thoroughly disconnected rich realize.

    Reply
       Historically a bad month as I recall. Big hitters as Wall says are back from the Hamptons...I think Wall's expectations summarize my own.I think the Financial sector will try to be buttressed, but the reality of the damage will overwhelm the efforts...

      I think the consumer is in much worse shape than the thoroughly disconnected rich realize.

     
    claycourtlesson
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    Posted: Sep. 2, 2008 - 12:56 AM ET #4

    When you look at these 2 clowns running for office, and how neither is saying anything besides mularkey regarding the state of the US economy, it is damn hard to be anything other than pessimistic regarding the future of the US stock markets.
     
    But as far as "trading" goes, expect tons of volatility (pretty hardcore prediction........not).
     
    Yeah guys, I agree......the crime syndicates are going to be back in action full swing over the next week, and "they" will move ticker prices on financials up, lure the public in on the "we've seen a bottom" bulls-sheet, and then dump their trades right on the little guy.
     
    The 2, make that 4 clowns in the presidential charade will tell lie after lie after lie about "alternative energy," so that could work, but only for a "trade."
     
    Until there are clear signs that the current recession is coming to a close, as in the financials are starting to make money instead of losing money, there is VERY LITTLE outside of commodities worth anything as far as "long term investing" goes.
     
    Not a rosy future, for sure, and if the crime syndicates move ticker prices higher the next month or so, then I believe the recession is here for a long, long, long time.
     
    And if the prices do move higher, don't believe the hype.  Short the hype.
     
     
    Cheers
    Reply
    When you look at these 2 clowns running for office, and how neither is saying anything besides mularkey regarding the state of the US economy, it is damn hard to be anything other than pessimistic regarding the future of the US stock markets.
     
    But as far as "trading" goes, expect tons of volatility (pretty hardcore prediction........not).
     
    Yeah guys, I agree......the crime syndicates are going to be back in action full swing over the next week, and "they" will move ticker prices on financials up, lure the public in on the "we've seen a bottom" bulls-sheet, and then dump their trades right on the little guy.
     
    The 2, make that 4 clowns in the presidential charade will tell lie after lie after lie about "alternative energy," so that could work, but only for a "trade."
     
    Until there are clear signs that the current recession is coming to a close, as in the financials are starting to make money instead of losing money, there is VERY LITTLE outside of commodities worth anything as far as "long term investing" goes.
     
    Not a rosy future, for sure, and if the crime syndicates move ticker prices higher the next month or so, then I believe the recession is here for a long, long, long time.
     
    And if the prices do move higher, don't believe the hype.  Short the hype.
     
     
    Cheers
     
    claycourtlesson
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    Posted: Sep. 2, 2008 - 1:02 AM ET #5

    Certainly the goal of the GOP and McCain cheerleaders is to get spot crude under 100 a barrel before November 4.
     
    However, I don't think that will help Senator McCain win any election.  His choice of Palin pretty much means he's throwing in the towel.  Palin now has her foot in the door, though, and her "religious right" leanings has me worried for 2012.  I was hoping we'd seen the last of that horror once the 2 incumbent clowns were gone from office.
    Reply
    Certainly the goal of the GOP and McCain cheerleaders is to get spot crude under 100 a barrel before November 4.
     
    However, I don't think that will help Senator McCain win any election.  His choice of Palin pretty much means he's throwing in the towel.  Palin now has her foot in the door, though, and her "religious right" leanings has me worried for 2012.  I was hoping we'd seen the last of that horror once the 2 incumbent clowns were gone from office.
     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Sep. 2, 2008 - 11:21 AM ET #6

    Looks like the plan came in perfectly, too bad I lose money on the guess than win.

    Commodities down, financials up.
    Reply
    Looks like the plan came in perfectly, too bad I lose money on the guess than win.

    Commodities down, financials up.
     
    jaxwhitey
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    Posted: Sep. 2, 2008 - 11:49 AM ET #7

    Might be time to start getting short MBI again.  It had a sick run up last week, its time for the air to be let back out of this balloon.
    Reply
    Might be time to start getting short MBI again.  It had a sick run up last week, its time for the air to be let back out of this balloon.
     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Sep. 2, 2008 - 11:54 AM ET #8

    They are already starting to erode the financials and we are barely into the first session.

    This move is so narrow, financials and some tech, the rest getting hit.

    Something tells me they sell everything the rest of the week, this is just a punching bag "setup" move today.  
    Reply
    They are already starting to erode the financials and we are barely into the first session.

    This move is so narrow, financials and some tech, the rest getting hit.

    Something tells me they sell everything the rest of the week, this is just a punching bag "setup" move today.  
     
    jaxwhitey
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    Posted: Sep. 2, 2008 - 12:01 PM ET #9

    The supposed LEH deal does not add up to me, somebody help me out here.

    Preliminary details are a Korean bank will pay $6 billion for a 25% stake, but LEH market cap isn't even $12 billion right now.  Why pay 50% to only own 25%????
    Reply
    The supposed LEH deal does not add up to me, somebody help me out here.

    Preliminary details are a Korean bank will pay $6 billion for a 25% stake, but LEH market cap isn't even $12 billion right now.  Why pay 50% to only own 25%????
     
    jaxwhitey
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    Posted: Sep. 2, 2008 - 12:09 PM ET #10

    Ha ha, Bloomberg just went over the LEH deal and they had the same question.
    Reply
    Ha ha, Bloomberg just went over the LEH deal and they had the same question.
     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Sep. 2, 2008 - 12:18 PM ET #11

    It could be preferred shares or some combination of debt and equity.

    Also, the current market cap is discounting plenty of their assets..so a 25% stake might not equate in current market cap, rather some sort of entity asset valuation.  
    Reply
    It could be preferred shares or some combination of debt and equity.

    Also, the current market cap is discounting plenty of their assets..so a 25% stake might not equate in current market cap, rather some sort of entity asset valuation.  
     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Sep. 2, 2008 - 2:22 PM ET #12

    That didnt take long, a 200 pt reversal on the first day.


    Reply
    That didnt take long, a 200 pt reversal on the first day.


     
    jaxwhitey
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    Posted: Sep. 2, 2008 - 2:24 PM ET #13

    The boys are back in town  
    Reply
    The boys are back in town  
     
    claycourtlesson
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    Posted: Sep. 2, 2008 - 4:51 PM ET #14

    WSC-
     
    You know better than I do, for sure------------"they" will take financials higher pretty damn soon.
     
    I am all over that "trade."
     
    "punching bag set-up"..........brilliant.
     
    Cheers
    Reply
    WSC-
     
    You know better than I do, for sure------------"they" will take financials higher pretty damn soon.
     
    I am all over that "trade."
     
    "punching bag set-up"..........brilliant.
     
    Cheers
     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Sep. 2, 2008 - 6:57 PM ET #15

    CC,

    They are also obliterating the commodity stocks like ACI, JRCC,X,POT,IPI,MON,MOS and even unrelated stocks like the bulkers today- DRYS, EXM, DSX, FRO. Of course solars got nailed too.

    Something tells me we havent seen the last run in the group, and the punishment seen today will turn in another direction pretty soon.
    Reply
    CC,

    They are also obliterating the commodity stocks like ACI, JRCC,X,POT,IPI,MON,MOS and even unrelated stocks like the bulkers today- DRYS, EXM, DSX, FRO. Of course solars got nailed too.

    Something tells me we havent seen the last run in the group, and the punishment seen today will turn in another direction pretty soon.
     
    VirginiaHoldem2
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    Posted: Sep. 2, 2008 - 7:06 PM ET #16

    DRYS 

    Rough day . . . of course you can never tell when will be a good day and when will be a bad.  I'll just keep holding for now. 

    As for financials . . . I too think the worst is yet to come.  I work for a large bank and we are seeing more and more loans turn delinquent and these are people with great FICO and credit scores.  We only lend to the supposed cream of the crop.  So if that is what is happening with good borrowers . . . think of the Banks who still have exposure to bad borrowers. 

    Should be an interesting last part of 2008.
    Reply
    DRYS 

    Rough day . . . of course you can never tell when will be a good day and when will be a bad.  I'll just keep holding for now. 

    As for financials . . . I too think the worst is yet to come.  I work for a large bank and we are seeing more and more loans turn delinquent and these are people with great FICO and credit scores.  We only lend to the supposed cream of the crop.  So if that is what is happening with good borrowers . . . think of the Banks who still have exposure to bad borrowers. 

    Should be an interesting last part of 2008.
     
    jaxwhitey
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    Posted: Sep. 4, 2008 - 11:46 AM ET #17

    Tough day so far for the bulls.  Do they boys go to lunch then come back buying or do they flush it down the toilet the rest of the day?
    Reply
    Tough day so far for the bulls.  Do they boys go to lunch then come back buying or do they flush it down the toilet the rest of the day?
     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Sep. 4, 2008 - 12:28 PM ET #18

    VH2,

    DRYS gets a downgrade today? What a stupid analyst, let the stock fall 15 bucks then give a reduced rating from buy to hold.

    The BDI looks like total crap, down every single day, but even with this gloomy environment, the company will earn operating income of 12 plus next year which is a 5 PE for 2009 and that is a total joke.

    The decimation of bulkers and commodities is amazing the last month or so.
    Reply
    VH2,

    DRYS gets a downgrade today? What a stupid analyst, let the stock fall 15 bucks then give a reduced rating from buy to hold.

    The BDI looks like total crap, down every single day, but even with this gloomy environment, the company will earn operating income of 12 plus next year which is a 5 PE for 2009 and that is a total joke.

    The decimation of bulkers and commodities is amazing the last month or so.
     
    jaxwhitey
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    Posted: Sep. 4, 2008 - 2:20 PM ET #19

    Anyone else get the feeling that the unemployment number tomorrow will be surprisingly good.  Everyone sells today and tomorrow things make a reversal.
    Reply
    Anyone else get the feeling that the unemployment number tomorrow will be surprisingly good.  Everyone sells today and tomorrow things make a reversal.
     
    sasquatches1
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    Posted: Sep. 4, 2008 - 2:27 PM ET #20

    Time to start scaling into DRYS, AGU, POT, MOS.
    Reply
    Time to start scaling into DRYS, AGU, POT, MOS.
     
    jaxwhitey
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    Posted: Sep. 4, 2008 - 2:27 PM ET #21

    I mean, the government would never lie, but perhaps they miscalculate some numbers and the result is better than expected.
    Reply
    I mean, the government would never lie, but perhaps they miscalculate some numbers and the result is better than expected.
     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Sep. 4, 2008 - 4:51 PM ET #22

    Quote Originally Posted by sasquatches1:

    Time to start scaling into DRYS, AGU, POT, MOS.


    And about 10 other stocks-

    JRCC, CNQ, ENER, IPI, RIO etc etc
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by sasquatches1:

    Time to start scaling into DRYS, AGU, POT, MOS.


    And about 10 other stocks-

    JRCC, CNQ, ENER, IPI, RIO etc etc
     
    VirginiaHoldem2
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    Posted: Sep. 4, 2008 - 7:52 PM ET #23

    Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

    VH2,

    DRYS gets a downgrade today? What a stupid analyst, let the stock fall 15 bucks then give a reduced rating from buy to hold.

    The BDI looks like total crap, down every single day, but even with this gloomy environment, the company will earn operating income of 12 plus next year which is a 5 PE for 2009 and that is a total joke.

    The decimation of bulkers and commodities is amazing the last month or so.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:

    VH2,

    DRYS gets a downgrade today? What a stupid analyst, let the stock fall 15 bucks then give a reduced rating from buy to hold.

    The BDI looks like total crap, down every single day, but even with this gloomy environment, the company will earn operating income of 12 plus next year which is a 5 PE for 2009 and that is a total joke.

    The decimation of bulkers and commodities is amazing the last month or so.
     
    VirginiaHoldem2
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    Posts: 2704
    Posted: Sep. 4, 2008 - 7:56 PM ET #24

    Somehow my comment got deleted.  But I plan on adding some more DRYS at these levels tomorrow.  I have the time to hold so I'll dip in with more shares here in the $62 range. 
    Reply
    Somehow my comment got deleted.  But I plan on adding some more DRYS at these levels tomorrow.  I have the time to hold so I'll dip in with more shares here in the $62 range. 
     
     
    claycourtlesson
    claycourtlesson
    All-Star
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jan, 2006
    Posts: 14917
    Posted: Sep. 4, 2008 - 11:12 PM ET #25

    WSC-
     
    "Put up or shut up" time on the financials trade this coming week. 
     
    Easy thing to do is remain skeptical and to "wait and see."  Hard thing to do is ante up.
     
    So we all know what to do.
    Reply
    WSC-
     
    "Put up or shut up" time on the financials trade this coming week. 
     
    Easy thing to do is remain skeptical and to "wait and see."  Hard thing to do is ante up.
     
    So we all know what to do.
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