Anyone else get the feeling that the unemployment number tomorrow will be surprisingly good. Everyone sells today and tomorrow things make a reversal.
Total set-up.
The best thing that could happen from a trading perspective is a bad number with a gap down open tomorrow. Then you get on board the long financial trade----no one will see it coming, which is why it has a great chance of occurring.
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Quote Originally Posted by jaxwhitey:
Anyone else get the feeling that the unemployment number tomorrow will be surprisingly good. Everyone sells today and tomorrow things make a reversal.
Total set-up.
The best thing that could happen from a trading perspective is a bad number with a gap down open tomorrow. Then you get on board the long financial trade----no one will see it coming, which is why it has a great chance of occurring.
B.The collapse of US financials and RE:will it be reprised in England and all of the EU? Is Trichet right to be more concerned about inflation than recession?
C. Is there any reason to be bullish, given the staggering scale of losses already booked, and those yet to be booked?
D. When will US residential RE find a bottom?
E. What impact if any will a Democratic administration and Congress have on dividends in specific?? Which sectors will benefit the most from a Democratic victory in November? Which will be slammed?
These are not rhetorical questions. I would be interested in any serious answers to the above and the reasons proffered for them.
As a anyone here probably knows I am, very reluctantly, in the bearish camp. But I would love to hear reasons for optimism, and I do mean it.That Petraeus thinks troops can leave by next July is one positive that is the most prominent non economic reason that readily comes to my mind...anyway, stay safe out there and have a good weekend.
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A.Is decoupling a myth?
B.The collapse of US financials and RE:will it be reprised in England and all of the EU? Is Trichet right to be more concerned about inflation than recession?
C. Is there any reason to be bullish, given the staggering scale of losses already booked, and those yet to be booked?
D. When will US residential RE find a bottom?
E. What impact if any will a Democratic administration and Congress have on dividends in specific?? Which sectors will benefit the most from a Democratic victory in November? Which will be slammed?
These are not rhetorical questions. I would be interested in any serious answers to the above and the reasons proffered for them.
As a anyone here probably knows I am, very reluctantly, in the bearish camp. But I would love to hear reasons for optimism, and I do mean it.That Petraeus thinks troops can leave by next July is one positive that is the most prominent non economic reason that readily comes to my mind...anyway, stay safe out there and have a good weekend.
I had no idea how right I was the other day..they arent messing around.
That reversal off a 200 pt move higher turned brutal since.
I dont want to go near the financials just yet, but I am VERY interested in commodity stocks given this massacre in such a short period of time.
Anted-up, WSC, on the public,sucker play ETF at its open today. Up nicely, so will hold in to Monday and pray there are no nuclear bombs dropped over weekend.
If all holds up, good.
Enjoy NFL week 1, man.
Cheers
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Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:
CC,
I had no idea how right I was the other day..they arent messing around.
That reversal off a 200 pt move higher turned brutal since.
I dont want to go near the financials just yet, but I am VERY interested in commodity stocks given this massacre in such a short period of time.
Anted-up, WSC, on the public,sucker play ETF at its open today. Up nicely, so will hold in to Monday and pray there are no nuclear bombs dropped over weekend.
From what I read, Fannie and Freddie are getting diluted to the degree of 80%, so potentially the stocks could drop 50% or more.
That said if they did drop that far it would be a potential buying opportunity because they arent going under and are already down 90% this year..so a drop could be overdone in relation to the cheap investment the government is making here.
The government could REALLY make a killing if the housing market improves and the foreclosure rate goes down..the stocks could bounce nicely and with it the investment the government made could really appreciate...and at a later time the government could sell the stake and make a killing.
I also read that this could help free up the rate environment, that Fannie and Freddie had been keeping rates higher to shield against losses..as a buffer ROR wise.
The more I read about this the more I think if the stocks get smacked hard it is worth a stab.
Oh and if the futures open up big, I have to think the shorts will smack them back down quite soon. The financials are NOT in the clear here..this does not help the CDO mess or the mortgages they are holding.
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From what I read, Fannie and Freddie are getting diluted to the degree of 80%, so potentially the stocks could drop 50% or more.
That said if they did drop that far it would be a potential buying opportunity because they arent going under and are already down 90% this year..so a drop could be overdone in relation to the cheap investment the government is making here.
The government could REALLY make a killing if the housing market improves and the foreclosure rate goes down..the stocks could bounce nicely and with it the investment the government made could really appreciate...and at a later time the government could sell the stake and make a killing.
I also read that this could help free up the rate environment, that Fannie and Freddie had been keeping rates higher to shield against losses..as a buffer ROR wise.
The more I read about this the more I think if the stocks get smacked hard it is worth a stab.
Oh and if the futures open up big, I have to think the shorts will smack them back down quite soon. The financials are NOT in the clear here..this does not help the CDO mess or the mortgages they are holding.
More selling to come..the tape is telling us plenty.
I actually am tempted to try some FNM after a few days of fund dumping...since the odds they go under is VERY VERY thin, the odds a trade could end up being a double or better is pretty good.
Koaj, who said the recession is over, Cramerica?
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More selling to come..the tape is telling us plenty.
I actually am tempted to try some FNM after a few days of fund dumping...since the odds they go under is VERY VERY thin, the odds a trade could end up being a double or better is pretty good.
i've been on vacation, hope you guys haven't missed me too much, haha..
anyway... who's a happy CRDC holder today? i bet it gets faded for the most part, but at least everything is going as planned. up over 30% in pre-market hours
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i've been on vacation, hope you guys haven't missed me too much, haha..
anyway... who's a happy CRDC holder today? i bet it gets faded for the most part, but at least everything is going as planned. up over 30% in pre-market hours
LEH is still getting taken to the woodshed today. Under $10, was at $16 when Cramer told everyone to buy it Friday afternoon.
What a great guy he is.
I would think Fuld has to make an announcement soon on some kind of deal/plan. He can't wait until next week when they announce their earnings (losses)
I might have to take a shot if it goes lower than $8 and hope that Fuld is not a complete moron.
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LEH is still getting taken to the woodshed today. Under $10, was at $16 when Cramer told everyone to buy it Friday afternoon.
What a great guy he is.
I would think Fuld has to make an announcement soon on some kind of deal/plan. He can't wait until next week when they announce their earnings (losses)
I might have to take a shot if it goes lower than $8 and hope that Fuld is not a complete moron.
i bought one a few weeks ago....6k below MSRP and 1.9% financing
We leased one Saturday...sweet deal...loaded to the nuts. Auto dealers contacts out here tell me they see people pay $5K > sticker for a hybrid and then dump their used SUV at a discount...all to save a few bucks/tank. And now regular in SF Bay is < $4/g. Ummm...logic people?
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Quote Originally Posted by KOAJ:
i bought one a few weeks ago....6k below MSRP and 1.9% financing
We leased one Saturday...sweet deal...loaded to the nuts. Auto dealers contacts out here tell me they see people pay $5K > sticker for a hybrid and then dump their used SUV at a discount...all to save a few bucks/tank. And now regular in SF Bay is < $4/g. Ummm...logic people?
We leased one Saturday...sweet deal...loaded to the nuts. Auto dealers contacts out here tell me they see people pay $5K > sticker for a hybrid and then dump their used SUV at a discount...all to save a few bucks/tank. And now regular in SF Bay is < $4/g. Ummm...logic people?
people en masse are stupid and overreact to everything. if any of them could do math, then they would realize that a hybrid isnt cost effective for running errands
my brother covers autos on wall street...it helps that i had monthly sales and inventory statistics going into negotiate
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Quote Originally Posted by thejudge1000:
We leased one Saturday...sweet deal...loaded to the nuts. Auto dealers contacts out here tell me they see people pay $5K > sticker for a hybrid and then dump their used SUV at a discount...all to save a few bucks/tank. And now regular in SF Bay is < $4/g. Ummm...logic people?
people en masse are stupid and overreact to everything. if any of them could do math, then they would realize that a hybrid isnt cost effective for running errands
my brother covers autos on wall street...it helps that i had monthly sales and inventory statistics going into negotiate
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