Does anyone have an opinion regarding the effect of recent events ( bailouts, increasing debt, etc. ) on bond yields / movement ( both gov't and corporate) ?
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Question for anyone who will take it:
Does anyone have an opinion regarding the effect of recent events ( bailouts, increasing debt, etc. ) on bond yields / movement ( both gov't and corporate) ?
Opinions on a good price to buy FNM. I was thinking .40 but wanted some opinions on if this is a bad move? MY situation is to invest $5,000 for my 2 year old so she can use for college.
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Opinions on a good price to buy FNM. I was thinking .40 but wanted some opinions on if this is a bad move? MY situation is to invest $5,000 for my 2 year old so she can use for college.
WS - have the daily rates dropped off that much too make the stock not look as attractive ?? i mean this stock was a solid 70 stock for months. they also have guaranteed contracts with their routes correct ??
i sold it off last week after holding it a little while to break even.
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wow DRYS is being drowned.
WS - have the daily rates dropped off that much too make the stock not look as attractive ?? i mean this stock was a solid 70 stock for months. they also have guaranteed contracts with their routes correct ??
i sold it off last week after holding it a little while to break even.
Sorry I havent been around much lately..here are my comments on DRYS.
Based on 2008 earnings the PE ratio is now at TWO, that is right a big fat 2. The company will make better than 20 this year. Based on a wide swing of between 12-20 per share for 2009 they are priced at 3 or so PE.
Spot charter rates have dropped a TON as China has intentionally held off imports because they arent thrilled with ore and commodity rates, so bulk charter rates have been KILLED. The BDI index is a VERY thin traded index and a few charters can push it up or down and that is the case lately.
That said, it really does not effect DRYS the way it has in the past and here is why..
For the rest of 2008 DRYS has 68% of their vessels LOCKED in charters. For 2009 DRYS has 55% of their vessels locked in long term charters. For 2010 DRYS has 49% of their fleet locked and for 2011 they have 46% LOCKED.
The locked rates for these charters are BETTER than the current spot rate, so in effect the company has secured and legitimate earnings of between 6-9 per share already in the bank with very good counter parties and over the last 18 months the company has been updating their fleet and now have either the youngest or second to youngest age for their fleet of any public bulk shipper.
Now we need to discuss their Oil Rig leasing business. The idea was to SPIN off this entity in which the company has invested in the ballpark of the CURRENT marketcap for this subsidiary..they purchased the OR assets and also signed to build two more rigs which will be delivered in mid 2010. With the two current rigs, in 2009 I estimate the contribution to the business to be around 6-7 per share for earnings. In 2010 there will be two more rigs and even with a debt load for the assets I estimate the FOUR rigs to earn between 10-13 per share depending on the rates which are secured when the two assets come online.
Currently the market is valuing the entity at around 30 bucks below NAV, or net asset value..and that is probably conservative given the value of the OR assets.
I am not kidding when I give a fair value of the entire entity at 150 a share..that wont come tomorrow, maybe it wont come for a while but given the earnings I see, the assets the company owns and the locked in charter rates AND the aggressive nature of the CEO, I consider DRYS to be my top investment holding and I will NOT be selling this company at 3 times 2009 earnings..
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Geez lost a full post somehow-
Sorry I havent been around much lately..here are my comments on DRYS.
Based on 2008 earnings the PE ratio is now at TWO, that is right a big fat 2. The company will make better than 20 this year. Based on a wide swing of between 12-20 per share for 2009 they are priced at 3 or so PE.
Spot charter rates have dropped a TON as China has intentionally held off imports because they arent thrilled with ore and commodity rates, so bulk charter rates have been KILLED. The BDI index is a VERY thin traded index and a few charters can push it up or down and that is the case lately.
That said, it really does not effect DRYS the way it has in the past and here is why..
For the rest of 2008 DRYS has 68% of their vessels LOCKED in charters. For 2009 DRYS has 55% of their vessels locked in long term charters. For 2010 DRYS has 49% of their fleet locked and for 2011 they have 46% LOCKED.
The locked rates for these charters are BETTER than the current spot rate, so in effect the company has secured and legitimate earnings of between 6-9 per share already in the bank with very good counter parties and over the last 18 months the company has been updating their fleet and now have either the youngest or second to youngest age for their fleet of any public bulk shipper.
Now we need to discuss their Oil Rig leasing business. The idea was to SPIN off this entity in which the company has invested in the ballpark of the CURRENT marketcap for this subsidiary..they purchased the OR assets and also signed to build two more rigs which will be delivered in mid 2010. With the two current rigs, in 2009 I estimate the contribution to the business to be around 6-7 per share for earnings. In 2010 there will be two more rigs and even with a debt load for the assets I estimate the FOUR rigs to earn between 10-13 per share depending on the rates which are secured when the two assets come online.
Currently the market is valuing the entity at around 30 bucks below NAV, or net asset value..and that is probably conservative given the value of the OR assets.
I am not kidding when I give a fair value of the entire entity at 150 a share..that wont come tomorrow, maybe it wont come for a while but given the earnings I see, the assets the company owns and the locked in charter rates AND the aggressive nature of the CEO, I consider DRYS to be my top investment holding and I will NOT be selling this company at 3 times 2009 earnings..
Anyone remember Sequenom (SQNM)? Up another 25% today over $25 to new highs on more positive data on its non-invasive Downs Syndrome diagnostic test. This was a $5 stock 5 months ago.
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Anyone remember Sequenom (SQNM)? Up another 25% today over $25 to new highs on more positive data on its non-invasive Downs Syndrome diagnostic test. This was a $5 stock 5 months ago.
It is hard to imagine, but I have a feeling 700 billion is a mere drop in the bucket and will not even come close to "solving" this meltdown. Every time I see the likes of Pelosi and Frank bloviating about their "solution," the surer I am that we are not close to the endgame... The wife of a Fed employee assured me " it is a science, and they know the answers." I immediately went out and sold into the rally.She is a blithering idiot, and so are Frank and company.
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It is hard to imagine, but I have a feeling 700 billion is a mere drop in the bucket and will not even come close to "solving" this meltdown. Every time I see the likes of Pelosi and Frank bloviating about their "solution," the surer I am that we are not close to the endgame... The wife of a Fed employee assured me " it is a science, and they know the answers." I immediately went out and sold into the rally.She is a blithering idiot, and so are Frank and company.
I added more DRYS at below 43.00. Call me a sucker. I could be the only dope still adding. Will probably be down again tomorrow to the 40's or 41 but that is fine. couldn't pass on the 43 price.
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I added more DRYS at below 43.00. Call me a sucker. I could be the only dope still adding. Will probably be down again tomorrow to the 40's or 41 but that is fine. couldn't pass on the 43 price.
I keep telling myself that Wallstreet. I keep thinking that these low levels are a good buying opportunity. At the very least my average cost is now in the low to mid 50's. Although that is still a nice loss . . . it isn't nearly as bad if / when the stock starts back up again.
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I keep telling myself that Wallstreet. I keep thinking that these low levels are a good buying opportunity. At the very least my average cost is now in the low to mid 50's. Although that is still a nice loss . . . it isn't nearly as bad if / when the stock starts back up again.
Yep I saw that late fellas..that hit right before the close of extended hours.
JPM has done things the right way this entire mess and if I had one to own bank stock it would be JPM.
VH2, did you see that article posted on yahoo about the BDI and how financial firms like GS has been unwinding contracts because of their new status and how that has been smacking the FFA numbers?
There is NO way this could have been forseen from an investment POV and I need to scrape together more money because DRYS is at bargain prices and I want more..
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Yep I saw that late fellas..that hit right before the close of extended hours.
JPM has done things the right way this entire mess and if I had one to own bank stock it would be JPM.
VH2, did you see that article posted on yahoo about the BDI and how financial firms like GS has been unwinding contracts because of their new status and how that has been smacking the FFA numbers?
There is NO way this could have been forseen from an investment POV and I need to scrape together more money because DRYS is at bargain prices and I want more..
This latest round of congressional "wrangling" was done so more people from DC can get long the markets today and profit from the inevitable "bailout package" that will be shoved right up the asses of the taxpayers this weekend.
Way it works at the largest hedge fund on the planet.
I will be getting long SP 500 today (SPY) at some time today when the pessimism is most rampant, and the media are throwing gas on the flames--------they all work in collusion, and it is so obvious, and not just obvious to the cynics.
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This latest round of congressional "wrangling" was done so more people from DC can get long the markets today and profit from the inevitable "bailout package" that will be shoved right up the asses of the taxpayers this weekend.
Way it works at the largest hedge fund on the planet.
I will be getting long SP 500 today (SPY) at some time today when the pessimism is most rampant, and the media are throwing gas on the flames--------they all work in collusion, and it is so obvious, and not just obvious to the cynics.
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