The Stock Market - A daily diary

Yeah, INTC is going through some engineering issues for sure right now.  They'll get it right IMHO;  it just may take some time for INTC to right the ship.    I saw yesterday that they also fired one of their Chief Engineers..  Delay after delay after delay.  I heard a few months ago that this was one of the reasons (i.e. new chip delays) why Apple discontinued them as a supplier for their iPhones.  Not sure it was a primary one, though, but who knows.  It certainly benefits Apple to do the design of their chips  "in house."  That, and the fact that they can save oodles of money in the process...    

Sure thing.  Daytrading can be real fun and nice.  But have to limit losses and take guaranteed profits. 

Haven't had time to see how your calls did today?

But I would get out of them tomorrow on any bounce at all and jump in 21 calls on any dip.  

And put sells in place right away. 

And consider buying the stock also. 

There are some forums and some online charting help and technical assistance sites.  This is one that is free.  You can look at it and play around with it and get some ideas of which direction may look good and when to get in and out, along with some key numbers to use. 

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/AMEX-APT/

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/AMEX-APT/technicals/

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/AMEX-APT/ideas/

You can do the same with AMD and any other stock. 

These types of places give you a lot of insight and other directions of research to do. 

I see they hit 1.70 earlier.  Did you get out?  Or still in?

On a relatively positive day on the market so far ,  ( only 6 of 40 stocks are Down on my daily dashboard), INTC continues to grind lower.  I get the impression there might be some institutional sellers that are scaling out of some very large positions.   

Will keep an eye on them if they get pounded unmercifully.  Might be an attractive long term hold,  but will wait to see what transpires. 

Rush

How many different sectors are you tracking and how did you decide on them?

I just ask, because there are already so many different indexes and funds that track a varied assortment of stocks.  

How are you selecting them and do you drop and add from time to time.  

Do you just have a list you keep up with or do you track your stock group performance against say S&P?

Raiders... Here are the market sectors I have included in the dashboard ; 

Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Oil, Industrial, Big & Old Tech, Big Pharma, and Telecommunications.   The stocks I have in the dashboard are stocks that I've either previously owned, own currently, or were picked because they (IMHO) round out a broad swath of the market. 

I do add/delete stocks from time to time, but I keep a focus on the broad representation of the stock market on the dashboard.  The primary reason I add/delete is because my dashboard only allows me to hold 40 stocks on the screen.  I use bigcharts.com for the stocks I add/delete on my dashboard.  

I honestly don't think the indexes do enough of showing what's going on "under the hood" with the market.  For example, the S&P500 is driven almost 25% by 4 or 5 tech stocks.  Looking at the daily performance of the S&P tells you nothing of what's going on with different market sectors.  I could, for example, look at the sector ETFs to see what's going on, but I like looking at what's going in the market at the stock level, too.  

Doing all of this helps get a gauge on "market breadth," too.  Poor market breadth "can" be an indicator of an unhealthy market that I pointed out I think just last week.    

Well look at UPS up 3.3% today. I'm already in the stock, but I am adding more on any pullback. The post COVID world is likely to be significantly more dependent on the transports for a long time. 

I got 130 calls exp Friday.  Hopefully they blow the doors off earnings tomorrow morning.  Not too long ago we talked about FedEx.  The stock was up five points day of earnings.  Then after hours popped another twenty plus.  I believe they knocked their earnings per share outta the ballpark by over a dollar vs the estimates.   Unheard of.  Hopefully UPS can follow half of that.  

of course I didn’t get out of the calls raiders.  This thing spiked 2 bucks In less than two minutes.  I’ve never seen that in one day for the last 6 weeks regarding APT.  but then of course the massive sell off followed.  It rebounded towards the last hour to 24.30 with fifteen minutes to go.  Then of course ... dropped over a 1.30.  this stock gotta be the classic pump and dump manipulation.  Too much volatility.  BUT we did get the volume today.  5.25M vs the average 3.7.  I will hold and hold and hold till the earnings report.  hopefully the shorts will get bent over and will need to apply the lube 

cave...I like the odds on your UPS calls. You will make money. I'm buying more UPS if it doesn't get away from me like WMT did. Don't forget to take the profits. 

Holy hell gamble.  Stock twits is one of my “cheering” sources and five minutes ago it said UPS dropped to 95 a share.  I literally had a heart attack saying how the hell do people know they’re going to miss that badly? Then I went to Twitter and zero hedge or anybody else for that matter hadn’t said anything about it.  went back to twits and it somehow glitched.  How the hell does that happen?  Whew.  I can breathe again ... for the time being.   What can brown do for you? it can offer steady Q3 and 4 guidance and beat the analysts forecast $1.08 EPS!!

bacardi and cola.  Do it.  Do it. 

I am all for it.  Great job.  

Just reason(s) I ask is to make sure you are balanced, etc.  But there are lots and lots of different types of these things.  I just used the S&P because that is the one folks know the most.  It has done so well over time that if you have a ‘fund’ that is outperforming it — you for sure have a winner (whether it is your own or a ‘professional’ one).

It is good to do it and keep it balance to get an overall perspective.  

As long as it is not like gamblers making their own ‘NFL power rankings’.  There is nothing wrong with it.  It is just that there are plenty of expert power rankings out there already.  I know folks what to use their own ‘algorithms’ to do this.  It is way easier today with all the screeners and information online.  But sometimes it may be redundant.  

However, if it is working and not taking too much time to do and maintain — great!

Was just curious if you compared your ‘fund’s’ performance against another similar.  

In my opinion, you have got to start taking profits on this thing as they come.  Otherwise, you are letting go up to where you WOULD make a profit but instead you let it go down and expire at a total LOSS.  But you never have a plan in place to do that.  By now you should be well in the profit AND now you could let some just run.

Let me ask it this way:  At what price would you be glad AND for sure sell?  How much is enough profit?

Nice, Gamble..

30.  My strike for APT is 30.  there is ZERO reason this can’t hit by next week.  Someone just posted that there was a buy order for 20,384 shares at 22.94 44 minutes after close.  so this takes how long to get filled tomorrow?  Someone else was telling me this with drive up the price after hours.   But my little brain somehow thinks that order can’t be filled during non-market hours since its massive 

I wish I had a 'fund' that was beating the s&p500.   Heck,  even most stock pickers that do this for a living can't beat the averages, consistently.   I have fun with it though,  and keep the stock picking to only about 10% of my portfolio.   The rest of the stock allocation is all index funds, including the s&p500.  And what a performer the 500 has been !!  And for that, I can thank AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, FB, and MSFT  predominantly.  

Yes. It is fun.  But also helps you stay abreast of things! 

I understand.  But I am more specifically asking about the price you want to see your calls reach before you will sell them?

Because what are you going to do if they do not reach that price?  

Oh. My bad.  Guess I haven’t thought about that.  Just waiting to see WHEN it hits 30.  Lol. Just fooled around with an options chart. I need  32.5 by Monday just to get a 200% return damn   that ain’t happenin.   Looks like I may be out of this thing earlier than I had planned.  

Rush,

This addresses some of that and the theoretical potential of the downside:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelcannivet/2020/07/28/if-there-is-a-tech-bubble-it-inflates-during-the-golden-hour/#58331d0e48aa

But there are over 5000 indexes I think. Wilshire is a better broad-based one.  S&P itself has several broken down for each sector as well as the overarching one, etc.  Some of these give a more balanced look that is not tech heavy or maybe skewed.  

I have explained many times — there is not a true direct correlation between stock price and option pricing alone.  There are many variables involved.  You can go to a lot of different stocks and look at the calls and puts — they do not have to go directly in sync or proportion or in a ratio.  Look at APT even — stock may be up for the day and some calls will be down, etc.  

Rush,

There are funds that outperform S&P 500.  So, you can make your own.  It can for sure be done.  Even if you just pick the top 2-3 performing from each sector and make your own it will do it.  

So there are a lot of benefits to making your own bag of stocks up.  Gain knowledge, no fees, and you make all the calls, etc.