The Stock Market - A daily diary

Dominos is over priced but as we know that does not mean anything in the short and mid term.

Something serious to look at, I watch a few things during the day and it kind of gives a picture of the situation. I look at currency pairs and I look at oil and credit...these are showing that so far all the liquidity is not working. On ZH they keep having articles about the liquidity is not being given to the areas that need it and thus is not accomplishing what is needed. Giving banks and central banks access to capital is not going to slow down the destruction of credit from a business perspective.

The continual drop in oil after bouncing is quite telling and that decline means debt of these companies are going to keep dropping in value and it will lead to the end of the line and these companies will probably go under in the process and that debt will be lost in BK and THAT hits the banks. Unless banks give these companies a break from their debt covenants OR the FED buys this crap debt then things cant get better.

Watching the Euro drop then lightly bounce and keep falling tells me that the dollar shortage is not getting better...and a side note, I dont see how the Indian Rupee is staying under 80 vs the dollar, they are in a really bad spot and their central bank is going to have a huge problem keeping their currency from collapsing.

I do believe that the FED will through as much money at this problem as is required to keep the country afloat. All of the major industries will be saved. Oil is tough. I honestly have no idea what happens there as we are at the mercy of Russia and SA. The oil situation is the kink in the armor and the problem that the Fed doesn't has a solution for. 

Canada has more than enough oil to share with our American friends 

I'm disappointed Packers. I would have thought you might have had something more insightful to share with us. 

Rush....I almost pulled the trigger this morning to raise some cash but didn't. You and I have been the megaphone for the buy and hold crowd but this virus is unlike anyone on the planet has ever seen. What are your thoughts? Protecting some money and maybe even moving some into BTC doesn't seem like the worst idea right now.

packers,

We dont want your dirty stinky sour crude, keep it up there, refine it up there and ship it to China from there.

Having fun a little of course but your sour isnt impacting N Texas much because you guys pretty much refine in Texas and ship to China and the orient from what I have read.

Hey Gamble, .. I've already put back into the market all the cash I'd raised  the last few years.. My last trigger point to buy more stocks was -30 % in the S&P hit on Thursday I think.  I literally have no available cash for my retirement portfolio now.   It was 20 % cash earlier in the year before the carnage.   20% is a cash target I like to achieve in the portfolio. 

We are really getting swung around on these markets.   I'd posted last week how the volatility players are amplifying the price movements,  and are making the most ardent buy and hold guys a bit queasy.   There is still too much data that supports buy and hold over the long term,  and I'll take it a step further... index investing .   

Gamble,  you mentioned your going  to raise some cash.   This seems to imply you're going to sell something at today's prices.   That can't be a good.   What am I missing..

BTW, it's funny... I think you and I had the same idea on BTC earlier.  I still haven't warmed up to the idea.  To me , it's digital gold .. pays no dividend,  has no utility, and I have the risk someone can hack  my account.  Mt. Gox should have been enough.. it's just not my cup o ' tea.   

The raiding of BTC has stopped despite the markets still getting pummeled. That's a pretty strong signal that BTC may have bottomed. Right now I'm in for fast food money with .01 BTC. I did it on RH just to see how the transaction went through. 

As far as raising cash, I think to say "what am I missing" is being a little bit stubborn. The vaccine is still 12-18 months away. How comfortable are you going to be going to an NFL football game this year (if they play). How about Disney or anywhere that big crowds gather until a vaccine is available to everyone? Cruise ships? Traveling out of this country or even cross-country? This slowdown will not reverse until there is a vaccine for every human in the world....not just the USA.

We currently sit at 2017 levels. Look at the S&P 500 chart. We are just a short fall, historically speaking, in the markets. Yes, we have fallen off a cliff. 35% is a lot to lose but how much of the past two year run was FOMO? How much of that was sustainable? I'm down nearly 70% in my XLE and even more in XOM so I'm not selling that sector off. Not selling health care, biotech, or drug manufactures. Not selling tech. There is upside in these sectors.

In regard to the broader markets what's the most likely hypothetical event to occur first? Up 400 points on the S&P or down 400? Rates are at zero. We are in the early stages of a global pissing contest in Oil. Central Clearing Houses face possible troubles settling trades with possible counter party issues that the Fed will need to bail out. A recession is guaranteed. A depression has decent odds if not favorable odds. When the 18 months pass, the service industry will come back but what about consumer spending? The service sector is 22% of GNP. To top it all off, pretty soon the unemployment report will show a ballooning figure.......200k to 2.4m.

I'm hoping this 2 trillion or more package being announced today and voted on tomorrow gives our markets a nice boost tomorrow or at least prevents a big down day. 

What am I missing you say? Please tell me what I am missing to restore my confidence. 

But you are timing the markets.    No matter how much you think you know better than Mr. Market , you or nobody else can do it consistently over a period of time.  I could care less what the next 400 points on the market do.  I'm not a trader.

If you are raising cash, you are most likely selling something at severely depressed prices.  What's the point if you're a long term investor.   You already are  a dividend guy.  You could be accumulating more shares at today's depressed prices,  and reaping big benefits over the long term with those dividend payments.  Again, long term investmenting.  I think the lesson here is to always have some dry powder available.   

The futures after the Trump speech this evening tells me we have not seen nothing yet! Fasten seatbelts and try not to hit the sell button!

Wallstreetcappers you have flooded this forum with your idiotic opinions. I’m trying to find something useful.  Provide some insights you f u c k e r and stop  calling the feds, or trump an idiot. 

  I moved 10% back in today. As previously mentioned, I bailed to cash a few months ago. I put 10% back in a couple weeks ago as per my "plan", being if the market drop was more than 10% from the highs, I'd put a portion back. It's now down about 35% (about 28-30% from where I bailed). These are retirement accts. so I'm dealing with mostly MF's, & I'm still a couple years away from being able to tap them penalty-free.

Good for you, Mugg. (thumbs up) .  Buying at today's depressed prices is sure to pay off for you in a few years time. 

Today was another crappy day in the markets (what's new).  lol.    The action in Oil is perplexing to say the least.  (I'm just an observer at this point with no further buying (and sure in the hell ain't selling)).

Here is just a sample of today's action ;

BP  +4.6% 

CVX -8.71%

XOM -3.94%

HAL +3.76%

FANG +9.47%

Just another crazy day with no rationale..  The biggest, most stable, just getting hammered yet again, even on a day that oil gains 3%!

Here are some other drastic moves on other big names today ;

DEO -6.36%

JNJ -7.30%

T -5.91%

How on earth is healthcare getting slammed worse than the overall market.  Is there a Bernie play in all of this ?  Trump's chance at re-election our surely taking a hit w/ all this.  Who knows the political play as it relates to healthcare stocks..

As our daily lives continue to get turned upside down by the China Virus, our true day of reckoning is weeks away.  What will be the outcome of the (limited) lockdown that is currently in place.  IMHO, the administration should have issued a "nationwide lockdown,"  when WA, NY, and CA were issuing their own.  What good is it if other parts of the country are not participating in limiting the spread, even if they don't have "an outbreak."

What we have in this country economically  is a medically induced coma.  It is completely a forced shutdown at the expense of potentially saving millions of live later.  I get it, but we cannot as a society go on like this forever, nor will the population put up with this as we wait for a vaccine in 12-18 months.  The question is a blunt one.  Do we put up with an economic depression to save millions of lives.  What a horrible quandary.  Trump should (have) put a 30-day lockdown on this country to try and stem the spread as much as possible AND use this critical time to ramp up BIG time the medical supplies, testing kits,  hospital facility, etc.   After the 30-day period, re-start business activity, and with undoubtedly another flare-up of cases (phase2)... The only difference being that we should be (better) prepared w/ the hospitals w/ the  BIG ramp up of medical supplies done earlier.  However you cut it, the elderly and those w/ weak immune systems are going to be vulnerable until a vaccine is found.  We need to get the economy going again, sooner rather later, and letting people using their best judgments if they can function in society in crowded environments.

Well Rush, you may be getting what you wanted. Trump is ending the shutdown early. He is speaking now. "We must not make the cure worse than the problem". It looks like the shutdowns are ending within the next week. 

I was hoping for a positive vote today but the Democrats are just a touch bunch. If those sticking points (airline emissions???? WTF) are what the Dems were held up on I'm a monkey's uncle. The Dems what this damage to wreck the economy. That's all I can figure. 

Anyway, I didn't get what I wanted so I'm still with you. 100% fully invested. 

This shutdown announcement today along with the Dems hopefully getting off their ass might give us a boost eventually. 

Brilliant, the worst leader in the history of our country just made another blunder. Trump thinking the market will like this decision is putting innocent civilians in danger. The last thing he should do is end the lock down early...he was wrong before this got going, he has been wrong during and he is wrong here.

The only way we stem the tide is to keep people distanced from each other since we screwed the prep phase royally...we saw what was going on in China and Trump in his brilliant genius called it nothing and like the flu and maybe a few people get sick...instead we should have thrown all our resources at this and got way ahead...been prepared. No, our leader insulted the Chinese and the DEMS and the media as usual and put us in the worst spot.

This is par for the course if Trump does this...brutal thinking to try and appease the stock market, and it will be yet another mistake to go along with all the others.

Short term pain for long term gain, no Trump is only concerned about the next up or down tick on the NYSE.

I agree that Trump is bungling this badly. I believe he will flip flop on this issue again before the 15 days are up. 

I didn't see the press conference today, but that's encouraging Trump is looking at this for the betterment of the country.   What a horrible decision to have to make, but o believe the right one..

In the most rosiest of circumstances,  the majority of those laid off could find their way back to their old jobs.. wouldn't that be nice.  A bit unrealistic,  but like i said  earlier , I view these times as a medically induced coma.  We need to feed the patient for 30 days to keep them alive , before they awaken from their coma .  Let's get it done Congress !  Jay Powell has done a remarkable job flying the helicopter and dropping money in the bond markets.  Lol.

Rush,

Is all that levity? I hope so...seriously.

The FED has done a lousy job at this, they are throwing the sink at this but are not fixing the problem...they didnt properly diagnose the problem and started using 2008 playbook which was totally erroneous. They think the solution to all monetary ills is to give banks money and give lines of credit to central banks, problem solved....in this case problem not solve and not solved yet. They also dont give a crap about who is harmed in this process or the cost of this reckless experiment...that no cost exists that they can computer print like Japan and it has no consequence.

And how can allowing people who have or might have a virus interacting with others be a good thing? Thats the way to turn a short term problem into a very very long term costly and deadly problem. Its short term stupid thinking that Trump is more concerned about his re-election and the stock market than if people could die from this decision. Its moronic and it is Trump 101.

Well, futures are already up nicely..  This could have some staying power IMHO,  because it suggests to the market that we will not surrender economically to this virus; however,  we may surrender countless lives.. Most importantly,  it presents to the market an actual plan.  Up to now, we've been rudderless, surrendering ourselves to "flattening the curve" .   Trump needs to be decisive about this plan and stick to it.  We better flatten the curve in these next few weeks.   That's why I suggested earlier an outright national lockdown. 

Wall, the fed has used more in their toolkit than during the financial crisis  ; this time they've even resorted to throwing the actual toolbox at the problem.   They hardly have anything left.  Do I support these measures  ? I answer,   Do I have a choice ?  I want to save the economic system.   I want to be able to access my bank in the future.  These are not just convenient measures  ; these are necessary measures to restore lifeblood in the system.   They are part in parcel helping keep the system on life support.   In an ideal world,  these measures will be unwound , just as bond purchases were after the financial crisis. 

That was the thinking the public bought in 2009 that the cost was worth it because the system served the public...but having the same thing again for similar and actually worse reasons is insulting. 

As we have discussed this was bound to happen because of the leverage in the system WORLDWIDE..that means since 2009 nothing has changed and actually has gotten worse because the leverage increase was not due to the consumer this is all corporate/hedge fund. So the FED fueled this leverage by artificially keeping rates well below historic lows and by suppressing VOL...that pretty much told all the leverage slimeballs that they could sell VOL and make billions in profits...nobody forced this. Nobody forced banks and private equity to float sh!t loans to frackers, that wasnt the fault of the consumer...so why would the same logic be used? This leverage is 100% greed based, not based on homeowners trying to ATM their lifestyle and in fact the consumer has gotten very little of the goodies for the last ten years...CC rates are awful, credit terms have been tough the whole time. This is not a "save the system" move here...this is a save the leveraged and save the greedy slimeball corporations who sold debt and engineered bonuses and stock award gains because of the FED.

I say screw Boeing and the airlines and anyone who bought back stock using FED driven money and debt...and profited off the Trump pig freebies.

There should be an ENORMOUS ammt of pain, but there will not be and it is due in part to the thinking you are floating here.

I can't imagine what would be left of the USA if you were calling the shots WallStreet. I'm sorry, but saving the economic system is what is NECESSARY to prevent a complete collapse. 

Part of me feels sorry for you and anyone else (you do indeed have a ton of company) that has such a screaming desire to witness the economic destruction of our great nation. The fact that you feel that WE as a NATION would be better off if our airlines and banks and economic infrastructure were allowed to simply fail and drag an entire country into a great depression makes me think you are a madman. 

Tomorrow our leaders will join the Fed and together they will bail out our nation once again regardless of your wishes for total destruction. 

 Unfortunately, to help the little guys, you have to bail out the big guys. I don't like it either, but if Boeing went under it would devastate this area. They employ about 60k people in the greater Seattle area, but the amount of support jobs they created would also fold.......probably another 60k people, not to mention the trickle down effect to all other local biz's. A lot of people would suffer because of a few greedy bastads. I sincerely hope that conditions are put on these loans, bail-outs, whatever you wanna call them.