KScapping write ups and plays archived #2

Sounds good.  Any thoughts on tonites game Packers vs Bears? Thanks!

 Well said, however, he can not start his own thread because he is too busy analyzing this one 

Nessa-I have had a nice X-mas today, but everytime I see your posts on here I can't help but thinking you are an ugly, lonely irritating person.  You said to go 2H over 31 on SM game, I did and lost $110 so I need you to pay me, where can we meet holmes?

here's an idea...do NOT even acknowledge any negative comments especially from the degenerates!  WTF!

There is NO need to respond to the knuckleheads in here! 

Good luck ILPRATO and KS! 

FUPM

hey nessa  if u think u better picking games than ks or ilprato  other wise shut the fuk up

Atlanta @ NO

Let’s look at some statistical facts:

Points allowed:

Atlanta allowed an average of 20.1 pts per game this season, 18 pts per game in L3 games.  New Orleans has allowed 21.9 per game (season), and 18 per game in the L3.  In head to head in the last 3 matchups they scored a total (combined) 131 pts—43.7 average, and only 61 total pts in the first half’s of those last 3 matchups

Vs top 10teams in defensive sacks rankings:

ATL:  vs Philly they scored 35 total, and 14 in the first half, ========vs Detroit they scored 23 total, and 17 in the first half,======= vs Minnesota they scored 24, and 17 in the first half=======vs Houston they scored 10, and 3 in the first half.  This is an average of  23 with 12.75 first half points.

NO: vs Houston they scored 40 with 10 1^st half pts======= vs Jax they scored 23 with 14 1^st half pts======vs NYG’s they scored 49 with 21 first half pts=======vs Detroit they scored 31 with 24 first half pts (note: Detroits best pass rusher Suh—not sack leader, but pass rusher-- was out of this game)====vs Minnesota they scored 42 with 21 first half pts (Note: the vast majority of sacks for Minn came in the early season, as their last season secondary is comprised on mostly unqualified NFL players due to vast injuries)  Due to the misleading game stats of the Minnesota and Detroit games, I am not going to tabulate those figures into this stat/fact/total:  NO scored (in these games) 112 pts and 45 first half pts.  Average of 37.3 and 15 first half pts…

hits/hurries/sacks:  Drew Brees, Brady, Manning, or any of the elite QB’s are very normal if they are not given the time to ‘check down’ their potential recievers—we have seen the proof of this over and over again.  This  (HHS )stat tends to mean a lot more than simply ‘sacks’.  Many rate a pass rush by how many sacks they get, but the H/H/S stat tells a much deeper story… so lets look at that a moment: 

and that has dropped to 17^th allowing 7.1 in L3.  Atlanta’s secondary is inferior to NO wideouts, but the question is how much time is Brees going to have to ‘check down’?

Running games:  We really only need to talk about Atlanta’s run game here; NO will pass pass pass as usual.  Atlanta averages 110 yds per game (ranked 19^th), but has only averaged 84 pg in L3.  NO gives up 109 pg on the ground.  NO is near last in the NFL in opponent yards per attempt, allowing 4.9 per. 

Time of Possession:  Mike Smith is a ball control HC, and his Falcons are 2^nd in the NFL in TOP with 32:32 pg, while Peyton’s quick strike Saints are at a surprisingly high @ 31:53.

Sharps vs Squares:  Squares are on the Saints @ about 61% and they are swarming to the Over.

Game plans:  Sean Peyton is no strategical genius; he has one of the best passers in the NFL and he tells him to pass a lot, and then pass some more.  Mike Smith in my opinion, is one of the best adjusting HC’s in the NFL (trust me, I am not an Atlanta fan by any stretch…or any team for that matter).  Smith always closes out seasons well by adjusting his game plans.  There are few surprises when you play the Saints, and you know how they are going to come at you (passing and passing).  Smith knows if they lose the turnover battle, or if they don’t dominate TOP they will lose.  The short game is going to be the key in this one for the Falcons.  The Saints really can’t stop the Falcons from this game plan; they just don’t have the qualified defensive personnel to do so.  Brees is likely to throw a pick or two in this game because of the pass rush, and when games are close….Brees takes chances.

Monday Night games:  Nobody shines like Brees on Monday nights.  That is the only portion of my take that causes trepidation on my play here. 

Motivation:  If I have to tell you what is on the line for both these teams, then you need to read a more basic write up of this game (division, seed position, play off berth, Marinos passing record, ect)

Recent opening drives:

 In the previous 4 weeks, Atlanta and NO (combined 8 opening drives)—on their opening drives—scored a total of 10 pts—that is 10 pts in 8 total opening drives— (Atlanta 7 and NO scored 3).  In those 8 combined games, these two teams went 3 and out 5 times.  The majority of their opponents during this span of games are in the top 5 (in the NFL) in allowed points (Minnesota X 2, Carolina, and NY Giants).

Summary:

A summary is almost pointless; I have made all the points above.  If Atlanta gets the ball first, I think this will be a fairly easy Under first half, if not it will at worst be close.  Michael Turner loves playing the Saints, and I think the Falcons are going to feature him big time in this game to chew up clock and grind this game out.  They want to minimize Bree’s appearance on the field, and I think they have the team that can pull that off.

Atlanta / Saints Under 26.5 first half

Atlanta +6.5 game

Atlanta Under 52.5 game