and that has dropped to 17th allowing 7.1 in L3. Atlanta’s secondary is inferior to NO
wideouts, but the question is how much time is Brees going to have to ‘check
down’?
Running games: We really only need to talk about Atlanta’s
run game here; NO will pass pass pass as usual.
Atlanta averages 110 yds per game (ranked 19th), but has only
averaged 84 pg in L3. NO gives up 109 pg
on the ground. NO is near last in the
NFL in opponent yards per attempt, allowing 4.9 per.
Time of Possession: Mike Smith is a ball control HC, and his
Falcons are 2nd in the NFL in TOP with 32:32 pg, while Peyton’s quick
strike Saints are at a surprisingly high @ 31:53.
Sharps vs Squares:
Squares are on the Saints @ about 61% and they are swarming to the Over.
Game plans: Sean Peyton is no strategical genius; he has
one of the best passers in the NFL and he tells him to pass a lot, and then
pass some more. Mike Smith in my
opinion, is one of the best adjusting HC’s in the NFL (trust me, I am not an
Atlanta fan by any stretch…or any team for that matter). Smith always closes out seasons well by
adjusting his game plans. There are few
surprises when you play the Saints, and you know how they are going to come at
you (passing and passing). Smith knows
if they lose the turnover battle, or if they don’t dominate TOP they will
lose. The short game is going to be the
key in this one for the Falcons. The
Saints really can’t stop the Falcons from this game plan; they just don’t have
the qualified defensive personnel to do so.
Brees is likely to throw a pick or two in this game because of the pass
rush, and when games are close….Brees takes chances.
Monday Night games: Nobody shines like Brees on Monday
nights. That is the only portion of my
take that causes trepidation on my play here.
Motivation: If I have
to tell you what is on the line for both these teams, then you need to read a
more basic write up of this game (division, seed position, play off berth,
Marinos passing record, ect)
Recent opening
drives:
In the previous 4
weeks, Atlanta and NO (combined 8 opening drives)—on their opening drives—scored
a total of 10 pts—that is 10 pts in 8 total opening drives— (Atlanta 7 and NO
scored 3). In those 8 combined games,
these two teams went 3 and out 5 times.
The majority of their opponents during this span of games are in the top
5 (in the NFL) in allowed points (Minnesota X 2, Carolina, and NY Giants).
Summary:
A summary is almost pointless; I have made all the points
above. If Atlanta gets the ball first, I
think this will be a fairly easy Under first half, if not it will at worst be
close. Michael Turner loves playing the
Saints, and I think the Falcons are going to feature him big time in this game
to chew up clock and grind this game out.
They want to minimize Bree’s appearance on the field, and I think they
have the team that can pull that off.
Atlanta / Saints Under 26.5 first half
Atlanta +6.5 game
Atlanta Under 52.5 game
| I think taking under for the contest for first half and game is the type of pick where you go 2-0 or 0-2.I do not think this should count as 2 picks its either one or the other.As you know parlays are not allowed with these type of plays because most likely u hit or miss both.This in my opinion is not a great way to decide a contest.Had I done 1st half and 2nd halfs in the same game to date I would have been something like 16-2 already.In essence it becomes a 15 game contest instead of 30.Its your call but if I knew earlier I would have played some of my games like this.Let me know what you think. | |
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