marky- its pointless.. but you said it right..they are so much on fedors nuts and thinking his fights are locks they dont actually read that everyone said, VALUE in AA, not once did i say WILL absolutely win, i said too much value in AA for you to get alomst 4 to 1 on ANY mma fight, i dont care who it is, i would NEVER lay 4 to 1 on any mma fight.. period.. if there wasnt a chance for the other guy to win then the match maker wouldnt set the fight up period!..they all hop on here in packs and defend fedor asap, that tells you one thing, they all have that little feeling in there heart, that this one may lose and this one has the best chance of losing..
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marky- its pointless.. but you said it right..they are so much on fedors nuts and thinking his fights are locks they dont actually read that everyone said, VALUE in AA, not once did i say WILL absolutely win, i said too much value in AA for you to get alomst 4 to 1 on ANY mma fight, i dont care who it is, i would NEVER lay 4 to 1 on any mma fight.. period.. if there wasnt a chance for the other guy to win then the match maker wouldnt set the fight up period!..they all hop on here in packs and defend fedor asap, that tells you one thing, they all have that little feeling in there heart, that this one may lose and this one has the best chance of losing..
and as for me losing my money against fedor, nope.. actually havent bet him at all..ever.. on or against.. almost did a few times.. very close.. but i wouldnt put my money on tim vs anyone.. now AA yes i did put a unit on him.. and only the guys i feel have the best chance.. even if i do lose,, thats one unit. you guys lose thats atleast 3.5 maybe more units.. i can lose almost 3 bets that i feel have a chance and still be at the same units as if you guys lost 1 bet on fedor..
so yes i did put a unit on AA, if i lose i lose, all im hoping for is a good fight, period... if i cared if i lost this unit that much then i wouldnt put it on him..
NOW.. can someone answer my question.. is this ppv/showtime/hbo or what? also will it be and was his last fight on that sopcast crap? thanks and GL with your bets.. everything i say is my opinion..
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and as for me losing my money against fedor, nope.. actually havent bet him at all..ever.. on or against.. almost did a few times.. very close.. but i wouldnt put my money on tim vs anyone.. now AA yes i did put a unit on him.. and only the guys i feel have the best chance.. even if i do lose,, thats one unit. you guys lose thats atleast 3.5 maybe more units.. i can lose almost 3 bets that i feel have a chance and still be at the same units as if you guys lost 1 bet on fedor..
so yes i did put a unit on AA, if i lose i lose, all im hoping for is a good fight, period... if i cared if i lost this unit that much then i wouldnt put it on him..
NOW.. can someone answer my question.. is this ppv/showtime/hbo or what? also will it be and was his last fight on that sopcast crap? thanks and GL with your bets.. everything i say is my opinion..
this site is full of fedor nut huggers. its impossible to have a serious debate.
i havent read one post saying AA is 100% going to win, everyone is saying he has a chance with his stand up, he has excellent stand up, and if anybody cant recognize that then you are all ignorant pieces of pile and should not watch mma.
and as for 4th and goal...why dont you read my fucking picks before seeing them, i make picks based on odds not who i think is going to win, never in my life will i bet on anyone who is over -220.
i honestly think you come on here just to break balls, get a fucking life.
You make picks baded on odds? then you say you will never in your life bet on anyone is over -220? that is a really stupid thing to say. And i will tell you why so you can learn something... Ill even make it simple so i will use poker terms for you... Pocket aces has an 80% chance of beating lets say pkt 5s. That is 4-1 odds as the favorite. If someone were to offer you 3-1, you would be an idiot not to take it purely for value, as much as you are betting on the favorite (AA) to beat 55, u are getting more than enough at those odds to bet on AA. you have to bet on AA at they are giving you (in the long run) an advantage at 3-1 instead of what the true odds are which is 4-1.
Lets say Anderson Silva -340 was fighting Matt Hamill, how can you not take those odds even though he is a big favorite? Or Silva vs Franklin again at -300, dont you think Silva would win at the very least 3 fights out of 4 which would be a push? U should always be looking for value as a gambler whether its betting on a fav or dog... I agree that betting on heavy favs can be tricky and a lot of the time, there is no value, but saying Gene "I would NEVER lay 4-1 on MMA fight... period, or markymark, your quote "why dont you read my fucking picks before seeing them, i make picks based on odds not who i think is going to win, never in my life will i bet on anyone who is over -220." Really really stupid, and doesnt make sense for anyone gambling to follow that.
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Quote Originally Posted by Marky_Mark13:
this site is full of fedor nut huggers. its impossible to have a serious debate.
i havent read one post saying AA is 100% going to win, everyone is saying he has a chance with his stand up, he has excellent stand up, and if anybody cant recognize that then you are all ignorant pieces of pile and should not watch mma.
and as for 4th and goal...why dont you read my fucking picks before seeing them, i make picks based on odds not who i think is going to win, never in my life will i bet on anyone who is over -220.
i honestly think you come on here just to break balls, get a fucking life.
You make picks baded on odds? then you say you will never in your life bet on anyone is over -220? that is a really stupid thing to say. And i will tell you why so you can learn something... Ill even make it simple so i will use poker terms for you... Pocket aces has an 80% chance of beating lets say pkt 5s. That is 4-1 odds as the favorite. If someone were to offer you 3-1, you would be an idiot not to take it purely for value, as much as you are betting on the favorite (AA) to beat 55, u are getting more than enough at those odds to bet on AA. you have to bet on AA at they are giving you (in the long run) an advantage at 3-1 instead of what the true odds are which is 4-1.
Lets say Anderson Silva -340 was fighting Matt Hamill, how can you not take those odds even though he is a big favorite? Or Silva vs Franklin again at -300, dont you think Silva would win at the very least 3 fights out of 4 which would be a push? U should always be looking for value as a gambler whether its betting on a fav or dog... I agree that betting on heavy favs can be tricky and a lot of the time, there is no value, but saying Gene "I would NEVER lay 4-1 on MMA fight... period, or markymark, your quote "why dont you read my fucking picks before seeing them, i make picks based on odds not who i think is going to win, never in my life will i bet on anyone who is over -220." Really really stupid, and doesnt make sense for anyone gambling to follow that.
Saying all that, i do think there is a bit (not a crazy amount) of value betting on Fedor. If i felt it was a huge amount, i would of bet on it a long time ago but im still deciding on how much i want to put on it. It is a lot of chalk. I might just bet to win $100. A lot of it has to do with bankroll as well...If you feel you have an edge in gambling, you should not try to bet more(risking more) than your bankroll enables you to cause over time if you have an edge, you will make money...
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Saying all that, i do think there is a bit (not a crazy amount) of value betting on Fedor. If i felt it was a huge amount, i would of bet on it a long time ago but im still deciding on how much i want to put on it. It is a lot of chalk. I might just bet to win $100. A lot of it has to do with bankroll as well...If you feel you have an edge in gambling, you should not try to bet more(risking more) than your bankroll enables you to cause over time if you have an edge, you will make money...
money- even though you are talking to Marky, i want to make it clear, i completely understand what your saying, so let me say.. i would never lay that much on a mma fight.. now, baseball, football or basketball a ML yes i would,because there is alot of recovery time if they make a error, but i just couldnt with a fight knowing one wrong move can end it no matter how good a fighter is or else obviously there would be no need for a fighter to train if it was a guaranteed fight..i rather watch and either hope for the underdog to get the shit kicked out of him and get to see it and not lose anything or see a huge upset, which has happened alot in fighting..
and thats the only reason im laying a unit on AA, basically in one way hoping for a mistake,also love taking the guy with nothing to lose..but also just so many things point to this being a good fight.. even Fedor said himself he is taking this fight more serious then any of his other recent fights.. the guy turned down a couple appearences to hype the fight because he needed to stay home and train, every fighter does that? no, now you know every fighter has atleast 1 to 2 good interviews to hype the fight.. and yes im sure he is going to have a interview, but to turn a couple down already to stay home and train alittle harder.. he is not dumb, he knows AA is one if the best competitors he has faced.. maybe not the best, but one of the best..
I dont know about you guys, but I think this is a damn good start of the year for some fights already so far...UFC NYE card was great, this one here will be good, penn/gsp entire card looks good, diaz/guida fight will be a war!! Lyoto/Thiago.. battle of undefeated..Finch back in action.. love that entire card.. and this is only the first month of the year!!!
so like i said, good brawls is all i want...
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money- even though you are talking to Marky, i want to make it clear, i completely understand what your saying, so let me say.. i would never lay that much on a mma fight.. now, baseball, football or basketball a ML yes i would,because there is alot of recovery time if they make a error, but i just couldnt with a fight knowing one wrong move can end it no matter how good a fighter is or else obviously there would be no need for a fighter to train if it was a guaranteed fight..i rather watch and either hope for the underdog to get the shit kicked out of him and get to see it and not lose anything or see a huge upset, which has happened alot in fighting..
and thats the only reason im laying a unit on AA, basically in one way hoping for a mistake,also love taking the guy with nothing to lose..but also just so many things point to this being a good fight.. even Fedor said himself he is taking this fight more serious then any of his other recent fights.. the guy turned down a couple appearences to hype the fight because he needed to stay home and train, every fighter does that? no, now you know every fighter has atleast 1 to 2 good interviews to hype the fight.. and yes im sure he is going to have a interview, but to turn a couple down already to stay home and train alittle harder.. he is not dumb, he knows AA is one if the best competitors he has faced.. maybe not the best, but one of the best..
I dont know about you guys, but I think this is a damn good start of the year for some fights already so far...UFC NYE card was great, this one here will be good, penn/gsp entire card looks good, diaz/guida fight will be a war!! Lyoto/Thiago.. battle of undefeated..Finch back in action.. love that entire card.. and this is only the first month of the year!!!
Is anyone here actually serious with what they are saying? Fedor will win this fight its really not that complicated. Fedor has better footwork than AA even with Roach's help and Fedors hands are just as powerful not uncluding being an extremely precise striker which his unorthadox style doesnt seem it would produce. AA is a good fighter, but this is just gonna be another fight where the people who bet on Fedor werent sweating one bit, and the people who had AA will be thinking about how obvious it was that Fedor had this fight before it began. AA isnt better than Fedor in one aspect of MMA period, most fighters including Tim Sylvia state that Fedor is even a more powerful striker. Look at Fedors history and look at AA's before placing any money on this. Fedor has a long list of people who hes beaten who are far more established as MMA overall fighters. We just saw the 36 seconds it took for Fedor to finish Sylvia and AA is much easier to take down. Someone please post something intelligent.
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Is anyone here actually serious with what they are saying? Fedor will win this fight its really not that complicated. Fedor has better footwork than AA even with Roach's help and Fedors hands are just as powerful not uncluding being an extremely precise striker which his unorthadox style doesnt seem it would produce. AA is a good fighter, but this is just gonna be another fight where the people who bet on Fedor werent sweating one bit, and the people who had AA will be thinking about how obvious it was that Fedor had this fight before it began. AA isnt better than Fedor in one aspect of MMA period, most fighters including Tim Sylvia state that Fedor is even a more powerful striker. Look at Fedors history and look at AA's before placing any money on this. Fedor has a long list of people who hes beaten who are far more established as MMA overall fighters. We just saw the 36 seconds it took for Fedor to finish Sylvia and AA is much easier to take down. Someone please post something intelligent.
money- even though you are talking to Marky, i want to make it clear, i completely understand what your saying, so let me say.. i would never lay that much on a mma fight.. now, baseball, football or basketball a ML yes i would,because there is alot of recovery time if they make a error, but i just couldnt with a fight knowing one wrong move can end it no matter how good a fighter is or else obviously there would be no need for a fighter to train if it was a guaranteed fight..i rather watch and either hope for the underdog to get the shit kicked out of him and get to see it and not lose anything or see a huge upset, which has happened alot in fighting..
and thats the only reason im laying a unit on AA, basically in one way hoping for a mistake,also love taking the guy with nothing to lose..but also just so many things point to this being a good fight.. even Fedor said himself he is taking this fight more serious then any of his other recent fights.. the guy turned down a couple appearences to hype the fight because he needed to stay home and train, every fighter does that? no, now you know every fighter has atleast 1 to 2 good interviews to hype the fight.. and yes im sure he is going to have a interview, but to turn a couple down already to stay home and train alittle harder.. he is not dumb, he knows AA is one if the best competitors he has faced.. maybe not the best, but one of the best..
I dont know about you guys, but I think this is a damn good start of the year for some fights already so far...UFC NYE card was great, this one here will be good, penn/gsp entire card looks good, diaz/guida fight will be a war!! Lyoto/Thiago.. battle of undefeated..Finch back in action.. love that entire card.. and this is only the first month of the year!!!
so like i said, good brawls is all i want...
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Quote Originally Posted by Gene024:
money- even though you are talking to Marky, i want to make it clear, i completely understand what your saying, so let me say.. i would never lay that much on a mma fight.. now, baseball, football or basketball a ML yes i would,because there is alot of recovery time if they make a error, but i just couldnt with a fight knowing one wrong move can end it no matter how good a fighter is or else obviously there would be no need for a fighter to train if it was a guaranteed fight..i rather watch and either hope for the underdog to get the shit kicked out of him and get to see it and not lose anything or see a huge upset, which has happened alot in fighting..
and thats the only reason im laying a unit on AA, basically in one way hoping for a mistake,also love taking the guy with nothing to lose..but also just so many things point to this being a good fight.. even Fedor said himself he is taking this fight more serious then any of his other recent fights.. the guy turned down a couple appearences to hype the fight because he needed to stay home and train, every fighter does that? no, now you know every fighter has atleast 1 to 2 good interviews to hype the fight.. and yes im sure he is going to have a interview, but to turn a couple down already to stay home and train alittle harder.. he is not dumb, he knows AA is one if the best competitors he has faced.. maybe not the best, but one of the best..
I dont know about you guys, but I think this is a damn good start of the year for some fights already so far...UFC NYE card was great, this one here will be good, penn/gsp entire card looks good, diaz/guida fight will be a war!! Lyoto/Thiago.. battle of undefeated..Finch back in action.. love that entire card.. and this is only the first month of the year!!!
ok first off...to moneyshot, horrible comparison, when i play poker, i get dealt pocket ACES, its not by choice, i put in the same money as the pocket 55, i get 4 to 1 odds by putting in 1 to 1, so spare me, if you tell me i can get fedor at 1 to 1 i put my house for sale to put it all on him.
i cant reply to everyone so i will just say this, Gene gets where i am coming from, and the dawgfather is a moron.
NO ONE HEAR IS SAYING AA IS GOING TO WIN 100%, we are all just saying he has a shot plain and simple!!
and no i will not fucking lay juice over -220 on mma, too many upsets happen, and great comparison to sports like nba where those ml's are worth it because you have time to recover, in mma by the time you recover you might be in a hospital!!!!
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ok first off...to moneyshot, horrible comparison, when i play poker, i get dealt pocket ACES, its not by choice, i put in the same money as the pocket 55, i get 4 to 1 odds by putting in 1 to 1, so spare me, if you tell me i can get fedor at 1 to 1 i put my house for sale to put it all on him.
i cant reply to everyone so i will just say this, Gene gets where i am coming from, and the dawgfather is a moron.
NO ONE HEAR IS SAYING AA IS GOING TO WIN 100%, we are all just saying he has a shot plain and simple!!
and no i will not fucking lay juice over -220 on mma, too many upsets happen, and great comparison to sports like nba where those ml's are worth it because you have time to recover, in mma by the time you recover you might be in a hospital!!!!
ok first off...to moneyshot, horrible comparison, when i play poker, i get dealt pocket ACES, its not by choice, i put in the same money as the pocket 55, i get 4 to 1 odds by putting in 1 to 1, so spare me, if you tell me i can get fedor at 1 to 1 i put my house for sale to put it all on him.
i cant reply to everyone so i will just say this, Gene gets where i am coming from, and the dawgfather is a moron.
NO ONE HEAR IS SAYING AA IS GOING TO WIN 100%, we are all just saying he has a shot plain and simple!!
and no i will not fucking lay juice over -220 on mma, too many upsets happen, and great comparison to sports like nba where those ml's are worth it because you have time to recover, in mma by the time you recover you might be in a hospital!!!!
U obviously dont understand logic, odds and value, so i wont bother to try and explain anything to you anymore. I wont insult you, ill just say-
GL to you
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Quote Originally Posted by Marky_Mark13:
ok first off...to moneyshot, horrible comparison, when i play poker, i get dealt pocket ACES, its not by choice, i put in the same money as the pocket 55, i get 4 to 1 odds by putting in 1 to 1, so spare me, if you tell me i can get fedor at 1 to 1 i put my house for sale to put it all on him.
i cant reply to everyone so i will just say this, Gene gets where i am coming from, and the dawgfather is a moron.
NO ONE HEAR IS SAYING AA IS GOING TO WIN 100%, we are all just saying he has a shot plain and simple!!
and no i will not fucking lay juice over -220 on mma, too many upsets happen, and great comparison to sports like nba where those ml's are worth it because you have time to recover, in mma by the time you recover you might be in a hospital!!!!
U obviously dont understand logic, odds and value, so i wont bother to try and explain anything to you anymore. I wont insult you, ill just say-
lol you did not prove me wrong. It was a perfect example. You saying how you will never bet on an MMA fighter just because he is a -220 fav or more is retarded. Upsets happen in every sport. You are looking for VALUE. Dont you even understand that? There is no point in trying to explain anything to you. No one is tryingto say upsets dont happen, of course they do..
If you keep passing up juicy odds even if its a favorite, like A. Silva over lets say Franklin at -300 then you are a fool. there are times to bet on favorites and a time to bet on underdogs. Your strategy by the way of betting on all underdogs as you did on the main card is not smart (ask anyone on covers), that alone shows you have no idea what you are doing. Betting on all dogs on the main card is not a smart move, you think there is value just betting purely on every dog on the main card? A good gambler will pick a couple dogs even but definitley not on every underdog. Dont just bet on a dog cause he is a dog...
What about this...
if there are two fighters A. Silva vs lets say Irvin again.... Cant remember how much of a favorite Silva was but lets say he was
-400, and you agreed that those were correct odds there were no value on it okay? so i agree no bet on silva.. but lets say the odds on silva were -340 so there is now value on silva and yo uwould be a fool not to take it if you felt that the correct odds should of been -400...
For poker, i was using it as an example of finding value, it had nothing to do with the game, it was a specific example of odds and if you can find an edge.
By no means am i saying bet only on favorites or only on dogs, im saying if you can find value on anythinng, then take it. By limiting yourself to not betting on -220 or higher, you could be missing out on profitable plays.
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lol you did not prove me wrong. It was a perfect example. You saying how you will never bet on an MMA fighter just because he is a -220 fav or more is retarded. Upsets happen in every sport. You are looking for VALUE. Dont you even understand that? There is no point in trying to explain anything to you. No one is tryingto say upsets dont happen, of course they do..
If you keep passing up juicy odds even if its a favorite, like A. Silva over lets say Franklin at -300 then you are a fool. there are times to bet on favorites and a time to bet on underdogs. Your strategy by the way of betting on all underdogs as you did on the main card is not smart (ask anyone on covers), that alone shows you have no idea what you are doing. Betting on all dogs on the main card is not a smart move, you think there is value just betting purely on every dog on the main card? A good gambler will pick a couple dogs even but definitley not on every underdog. Dont just bet on a dog cause he is a dog...
What about this...
if there are two fighters A. Silva vs lets say Irvin again.... Cant remember how much of a favorite Silva was but lets say he was
-400, and you agreed that those were correct odds there were no value on it okay? so i agree no bet on silva.. but lets say the odds on silva were -340 so there is now value on silva and yo uwould be a fool not to take it if you felt that the correct odds should of been -400...
For poker, i was using it as an example of finding value, it had nothing to do with the game, it was a specific example of odds and if you can find an edge.
By no means am i saying bet only on favorites or only on dogs, im saying if you can find value on anythinng, then take it. By limiting yourself to not betting on -220 or higher, you could be missing out on profitable plays.
All in all, im just saying that betting on dogs ( not all dogs on a main card) can be profitable, i did that a couple times when i bet on only dogs and won (rashad beating iceman), all im saying is that if you know MMA, then there will be times where betting on a fav will be a profitable play.
Can we agree to that at least?
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All in all, im just saying that betting on dogs ( not all dogs on a main card) can be profitable, i did that a couple times when i bet on only dogs and won (rashad beating iceman), all im saying is that if you know MMA, then there will be times where betting on a fav will be a profitable play.
i can partially agree with you, but when i say value i mean fighting plus money, where a fighter has a legit chance to win.
ex frank mir i had, rashad evans i had for ufc 92.
oh and i had junior dos santos +600 against werdum.
these are values where i am talking about, i saw one training session for dos santos and i said this guy has got serious stand up and i knew werdum doesnt, so there is my value bet.
when i see anderson silva facing a nobody like thales leites yes of course silva should win 19/20 times. but i just dont see it as profitable to bet him at anything over -400. even -300 is pushing it, cus all it takes is one lucky punch for him for lose ex. gsp serra.
i had money on cote against silva because i knew he has a dangerous right hand. and a serious chin, silva landed a flush knee right on cote's chin and cote got up and smiled.
even though he got hurt these are the fights i am talking about where fighters stand a chance.
thats why i do not like to bet on anything over -220 or -250, when i can study and look for that fighter who has a chance to win at +200 and make some value by not risking that much.
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i can partially agree with you, but when i say value i mean fighting plus money, where a fighter has a legit chance to win.
ex frank mir i had, rashad evans i had for ufc 92.
oh and i had junior dos santos +600 against werdum.
these are values where i am talking about, i saw one training session for dos santos and i said this guy has got serious stand up and i knew werdum doesnt, so there is my value bet.
when i see anderson silva facing a nobody like thales leites yes of course silva should win 19/20 times. but i just dont see it as profitable to bet him at anything over -400. even -300 is pushing it, cus all it takes is one lucky punch for him for lose ex. gsp serra.
i had money on cote against silva because i knew he has a dangerous right hand. and a serious chin, silva landed a flush knee right on cote's chin and cote got up and smiled.
even though he got hurt these are the fights i am talking about where fighters stand a chance.
thats why i do not like to bet on anything over -220 or -250, when i can study and look for that fighter who has a chance to win at +200 and make some value by not risking that much.
money- what did you get rashad at if you dont mind me asking? had to be nice..
marky- althought i dont know what the hell silva was doing in the cage v cote, i sure as hell cant wait for that rematch, he does indeed have one hell of a nice chin.. wow..
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money- what did you get rashad at if you dont mind me asking? had to be nice..
marky- althought i dont know what the hell silva was doing in the cage v cote, i sure as hell cant wait for that rematch, he does indeed have one hell of a nice chin.. wow..
off topic but.. just was reading Dana said he is willing to re-sign Tito.. not going to lie, i havent even thought about that guy since he left..
I really can't see Tito being resigned by the UFC. I believe he will fight for Affliction and I believe that would be in his best interest. Too many good fighters in the 205 division in the UFC that could beat Ortiz, it would make Tito irrelevant in my opinion.
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Quote Originally Posted by Gene024:
off topic but.. just was reading Dana said he is willing to re-sign Tito.. not going to lie, i havent even thought about that guy since he left..
I really can't see Tito being resigned by the UFC. I believe he will fight for Affliction and I believe that would be in his best interest. Too many good fighters in the 205 division in the UFC that could beat Ortiz, it would make Tito irrelevant in my opinion.
money- what did you get rashad at if you dont mind me asking? had to be nice..
marky- althought i dont know what the hell silva was doing in the cage v cote, i sure as hell cant wait for that rematch, he does indeed have one hell of a nice chin.. wow..
i found my old thread, and ill put it up... its a funny thread cause the-mma-guy was trashing evans saying he had no chance...
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Quote Originally Posted by Gene024:
money- what did you get rashad at if you dont mind me asking? had to be nice..
marky- althought i dont know what the hell silva was doing in the cage v cote, i sure as hell cant wait for that rematch, he does indeed have one hell of a nice chin.. wow..
i found my old thread, and ill put it up... its a funny thread cause the-mma-guy was trashing evans saying he had no chance...
sounds good....and tito could be on his way back to the ufc, i have been reading about mma all day today and affliction might fold after the event this weekend, and dana white wants crocop back in the ufc but at 205 to fight tito ortiz.
id love to see that fight
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sounds good....and tito could be on his way back to the ufc, i have been reading about mma all day today and affliction might fold after the event this weekend, and dana white wants crocop back in the ufc but at 205 to fight tito ortiz.
when i see anderson silva facing a nobody like thales leites yes of course silva should win 19/20 times. but i just dont see it as profitable to bet him at anything over -400. even -300 is pushing it, cus all it takes is one lucky punch for him for lose ex. gsp serra.
If Silva beats Leites 19/20 times, for any given Silva/Leites fight, Silva at -500 has tremendous value. To think otherwise is silly. Value isnt always with plus money.
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Quote Originally Posted by Marky_Mark13:
when i see anderson silva facing a nobody like thales leites yes of course silva should win 19/20 times. but i just dont see it as profitable to bet him at anything over -400. even -300 is pushing it, cus all it takes is one lucky punch for him for lose ex. gsp serra.
If Silva beats Leites 19/20 times, for any given Silva/Leites fight, Silva at -500 has tremendous value. To think otherwise is silly. Value isnt always with plus money.
obviously i was exaggerating a little bit, listen you guys can keep betting -400 favorites all day, i dont care, bottom line is its not 5 years ago, there isnt a huge gap in fighting talent anymore, there are great trainers out there who prepare these fighters for everything they need to know, for example alan belcher, he beat kang and he was +220, to me thats not a huge upset because these guys are mma atheletes, they know what they are doing. you can say for about 70% of mma fights that anyone can win. the rest there are clear cut favorites.
but like always thats just MO
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obviously i was exaggerating a little bit, listen you guys can keep betting -400 favorites all day, i dont care, bottom line is its not 5 years ago, there isnt a huge gap in fighting talent anymore, there are great trainers out there who prepare these fighters for everything they need to know, for example alan belcher, he beat kang and he was +220, to me thats not a huge upset because these guys are mma atheletes, they know what they are doing. you can say for about 70% of mma fights that anyone can win. the rest there are clear cut favorites.
obviously i was exaggerating a little bit, listen you guys can keep betting -400 favorites all day, i dont care, bottom line is its not 5 years ago, there isnt a huge gap in fighting talent anymore, there are great trainers out there who prepare these fighters for everything they need to know, for example alan belcher, he beat kang and he was +220, to me thats not a huge upset because these guys are mma atheletes, they know what they are doing. you can say for about 70% of mma fights that anyone can win. the rest there are clear cut favorites.
but like always thats just MO
Analyze the fight individually. Dont write about lines in general. I wrote before the Kang/Belcher fight that although Kang was a better fighter the odds were too high for the struggles Kang has had in recent fights. It was a no play me for that reason. Kang dominated the fight... then got caught.
Your poor examples, claims of self-hyperbole, misunderstandings of lines and lack fight analysis makes me think you really dont know what you're doing. Just throwing out bets week to week...
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Quote Originally Posted by Marky_Mark13:
obviously i was exaggerating a little bit, listen you guys can keep betting -400 favorites all day, i dont care, bottom line is its not 5 years ago, there isnt a huge gap in fighting talent anymore, there are great trainers out there who prepare these fighters for everything they need to know, for example alan belcher, he beat kang and he was +220, to me thats not a huge upset because these guys are mma atheletes, they know what they are doing. you can say for about 70% of mma fights that anyone can win. the rest there are clear cut favorites.
but like always thats just MO
Analyze the fight individually. Dont write about lines in general. I wrote before the Kang/Belcher fight that although Kang was a better fighter the odds were too high for the struggles Kang has had in recent fights. It was a no play me for that reason. Kang dominated the fight... then got caught.
Your poor examples, claims of self-hyperbole, misunderstandings of lines and lack fight analysis makes me think you really dont know what you're doing. Just throwing out bets week to week...
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