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my locked in ufc plays...

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Posted: #1
just 1 so far......  i bet rocha over ellenberger @+260.....  ellenberger is far more seasoned and this is a big step up in competition for rocha.... i just think these odds r good for rocha and this is 1 of the few dog plays i like....  not all faves can win and i see value here.... rocha has excellent bjj and he has shown to have great heart in his past fights....  ellenberger has stand up advantage im just betting more on value than that im really confident he will win.....  will add several more plays as the week continues..... Really looking forward to this card..... BOL with ur plays all
 
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Posted: #2
Rocha definitely has a great chance, I think his ground game will be way too much for Ellenberger.  But Ellenberger has the wrestling and striking advantage on paper.

One thing Joey Oddessa taught me, maybe you'll like it.  "Never use the word value, value is for losers.  Pick the winner, that's it.  Favs are favs for a reason, and you go broke looking for value.  Pick a straight winner and stick with it."

I used to bet dog heavy and then he schooled me.  Not saying Rocha is a bad pick, but try to avoid value, we saw value on Lawler, Prangley etc.  I just figured I would share that.
 
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Posted: #3
Quote Originally Posted by PULLA:

Rocha definitely has a great chance, I think his ground game will be way too much for Ellenberger.  But Ellenberger has the wrestling and striking advantage on paper.

One thing Joey Oddessa taught me, maybe you'll like it.  "Never use the word value, value is for losers.  Pick the winner, that's it.  Favs are favs for a reason, and you go broke looking for value.  Pick a straight winner and stick with it."

I used to bet dog heavy and then he schooled me.  Not saying Rocha is a bad pick, but try to avoid value, we saw value on Lawler, Prangley etc.  I just figured I would share that.





I like that
 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by PULLA:

Rocha definitely has a great chance, I think his ground game will be way too much for Ellenberger.  But Ellenberger has the wrestling and striking advantage on paper.

One thing Joey Oddessa taught me, maybe you'll like it.  "Never use the word value, value is for losers.  Pick the winner, that's it.  Favs are favs for a reason, and you go broke looking for value.  Pick a straight winner and stick with it."
yeah when i say value i mean i think the dog has a much better shot like its more of a coin flip to me.....  i have won a few times betting a dog i thought had a legit chance....  ie guillard a couple weeks ago....  also bet george sotoropoulos to beat joe daddy and mir to beat big nog... just to name a few.... so im not betting just cuz the number is high im betting cuz i think the odds r further apart than they should be and the the dog has bite.... always appreciate input.... bol bro
I used to bet dog heavy and then he schooled me.  Not saying Rocha is a bad pick, but try to avoid value, we saw value on Lawler, Prangley etc.  I just figured I would share that.
 
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oops that last message got sandwiched between urs.... my bad
 
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Every once in awhile that dog comes along though and you just knoe that it's time to go big and pull time pull the trigger..

Like Nick Diaz Over Frank Shamrock... George Sotiropoulos over Joe Daddy...

 
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Posted: #7
know**
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by Crowkillers:

Every once in awhile that dog comes along though and you just knoe that it's time to go big and pull time pull the trigger..

Like Nick Diaz Over Frank Shamrock... George Sotiropoulos over Joe Daddy...



what was the line on the Diaz/Shamrock fight? I don't remember
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by Crowkillers:

Every once in awhile that dog comes along though and you just knoe that it's time to go big and pull time pull the trigger..

Like Nick Diaz Over Frank Shamrock... George Sotiropoulos over Joe Daddy...


just seeing ur avatar.....
i think a dogs coming thru on sunday........  i bet 500 on pitt ML @+125 when it opened.....  go steelers!!!!
 
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Posted: #10

Quote Originally Posted by frank the tank:



what was the line on the Diaz/Shamrock fight? I don't remember

I am still serching for my thread on it, but here is an aftermath thread....

 
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Posted: #11
You are definitely right bighurt.  I like Vitor this Saturday, and also took Guillard a few days ago.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by PULLA:

You are definitely right bighurt.  I like Vitor this Saturday, and also took Guillard a few days ago.

yea i saw in ur thread u took belfort....  i will be on silva....  and see his odds r down to -240 on my book...... maybe u r the line setter
 
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Posted: #13
already have rocha @+260...

have added kelly also @+260.....  these odds r way too skewed because of the name factor kelly is a quality ufc veteran and just because cerrone has the star power from the wec doesnt warrant these odds i think kelly has a decent shot in this fight and took the odds as soon as i could...... more to come......  BOL all
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by Bighurt:

already have rocha @+260...

have added kelly also @+260.....  these odds r way too skewed because of the name factor kelly is a quality ufc veteran and just because cerrone has the star power from the wec doesnt warrant these odds i think kelly has a decent shot in this fight and took the odds as soon as i could...... more to come......  BOL all


I was talking to an oddsmaker about this fight.  He said realistically Cerrone should be -600.  He is better in every area.  I think Omigawa is a better dog play personally.  But good luck my man, God bless.
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by PULLA:



I was talking to an oddsmaker about this fight.  He said realistically Cerrone should be -600.  He is better in every area.  I think Omigawa is a better dog play personally.  But good luck my man, God bless.
understandable.... i just think mendes is gonna control him on the ground.... i personally think "the cowboy" is overrated....  love all input though feel free to keep it coming as i will be adding more plays
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by Bighurt:

understandable.... i just think mendes is gonna control him on the ground.... i personally think "the cowboy" is overrated....  love all input though feel free to keep it coming as i will be adding more plays


Yeah I agree.  Mendes will likely dominate him with wrestling and win a 30-27 decision while avoiding some subs and striking.  I am not a big fan of Cerrone, but if "Tellys" wasn't English I doubt he would even have a contract still. 
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by PULLA:



Yeah I agree.  Mendes will likely dominate him with wrestling and win a 30-27 decision while avoiding some subs and striking.  I am not a big fan of Cerrone, but if "Tellys" wasn't English I doubt he would even have a contract still. 

hahaha funny u mention that cuz i agree..... britts get extra fights just to keep that market..... but he did beat taylor, veach, and o'brien..... all arent fantastic but decent.....  i just havent been impressed with cerrone from what ive seen..... i think hes cocky and doesnt have the heart if the fight gets tough..... but either way cerrone is favored so obviously i will be in the minority with this play
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by Bighurt:

just 1 so far......  i bet rocha over ellenberger @+260.....  ellenberger is far more seasoned and this is a big step up in competition for rocha.... i just think these odds r good for rocha and this is 1 of the few dog plays i like....  not all faves can win and i see value here.... rocha has excellent bjj and he has shown to have great heart in his past fights....  ellenberger has stand up advantage im just betting more on value than that im really confident he will win.....  will add several more plays as the week continues..... Really looking forward to this card..... BOL with ur plays all


rocha is one of m yfavorite plays this week BOL
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by Bighurt:


hahaha funny u mention that cuz i agree..... britts get extra fights just to keep that market..... but he did beat taylor, veach, and o'brien..... all arent fantastic but decent.....  i just havent been impressed with cerrone from what ive seen..... i think hes cocky and doesnt have the heart if the fight gets tough..... but either way cerrone is favored so obviously i will be in the minority with this play


Haha yeah I definitely don't think Cerrone is a world beater. Most of the underrated Strikeforce and Japanese LWs would destroy him.  i just think Kelly is a notch below him.  I really like the Rocha pick.  Rocha along with Omigawa are two underdog sleepers to watch for imo.  Good luck my man and God bless.
 
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Posted: #20
Almost everyone posting is on Rocha, gl with your play!
 
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Posted: #21
I personally decided to lay off Rocha and go with Omigawa.  I didn't know enough about Rocha's striking.  He is obviously a huge threat on the ground and sometimes wrestlers take people down based off instinct once a low kick etc. is thrown.
 
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Posted: #22
Thanks for the tip Bighurt I'm pondering Rocha over Ellenberger @+260 now...


I think the Diaz/Frank Shamrock lines were right around:

-185 Frank Shamrock
+160 Nick Diaz

I won big on that one I knew Nick Diaz would destroy Frank.
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by KingTuna:

Thanks for the tip Bighurt I'm pondering Rocha over Ellenberger @+260 now...


I think the Diaz/Frank Shamrock lines were right around:

-185 Frank Shamrock
+160 Nick Diaz

I won big on that one I knew Nick Diaz would destroy Frank.
no prob bro........  i hope we both hit....  as i stated earlier im not 100% sure here i just think rocha should have better odds than he does.....  ellenberger has proven to fight off subs very well so im not sure this happens ....  but i do think rocha has a legitimate shot in this fight........ we will see how it turns out BOL my man!
 
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Posted: #24
BOL guys
 
 
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Posted: #25
already have rocha and kelly @+260....  adding paul taylor @-205 over gabe ruediger.......

not much to say here i think gabe is not a good mma fighter......  i believe taylor wins this fight handily and i dont mind laying the juice...  still more to come tomorrow im just waiting for more lines to dial in....  as always good luck all
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