UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier

YTD 68-84 +15.73 units 

Exciting card this weekend, with some great fights. 

Will post insight & picks as always 

Cachoeira vs Robertson 

Opening fight on what should be a great card. Two ladies with opposite styles. Robertson is a well rounded fighter who is always looking for takedowns. She averages around 3 per fight and she should look too wrestle early & often in this matchup. She is on a 2 fight losing streak, but her losses come against some really talented opponents. Cachoeira is a striker who loves to pressure her opponent. She has legit power for this division, but she does have flaws. In her last fight she got taken down 4 times before getting that KO, so if she does get taken down in this match up, it will be interesting too see if she can get back up. She also has a negative striking differential, so when she does march forward she does absorb damage before returning her own shots. Can she fight threw all that and find her big power shots? I doubt it. I do think Robertson at -400 is insane, especially with the power of Cachoeira. I don't see any betting value here, so I will most likely pass. 

Costa vs Kelley 

Bounce back fight for Costa here. He lost his last fight against a very dangerous Yanez. Costa looked good in that fight until he got clipped in the 2nd round. He is a very clean striker with quick hands & solid power. He uses his movement well, and also mixes in kicks nicely. He does have finishing ability, with all his wins coming by finish. In comes Kelley with his wild style. He is a striker who uses unorthodox attacks and is always looking for that wild shot. He likes to make a fight dirty and uses elbows, kicks & looping shots to try and catch his opponent. I think Costa will use his movement well and wait for Kelley's wild attacks and use his clean striking too pick apart Kelley. I'm not sure if I wanna take the ML in a parlay, or take Costa inside distance at +105. I will have a better idea as the week goes on. 

Hall vs Minner 

Both guys coming off losses back in July. Odd match up. Hall looked horrible in his last match up before getting KOd late in the first round. He does have good Jiu-Jitsu, but lacks any sort of take down techniques, and is a below average striker. Against someone like Minner, he might find success on the ground if he can manage too keep it on the mat. Minner is an OK striker who likes to use volume & movement. He does have solid take downs at just over 70% take down accuracy. His downfall is when he does get those take downs, he finds himself in a world of trouble. He has lost 8 times in his career VIA submission, and that could be a big problem in this fight. At -200 I think Hall is way overvalued. I cant push myself in betting Minner, but if he comes in with a game plan too keep this fight standing, I think he has a real shot at defeating the one dimensional Ryan Hall.  

Perez vs Schnell 

This should be a fun fight. Both fighters are very dangerous. Perez making his return after he fought for the belt and lost just over a year ago. He is a good striker with very dangerous kicks. He has great combinations with quick hand speed. He is a good wrestler and averages about 3 take downs per fight. He also owns a very impressive 90% take down defense. Schnell will look too get things back on track after his last loss back in May. He is a very good striker with good power. His strength is his counter punching. He will invite his opponent into the pocket and back up, and then plant and find big shots of his own. He is also slick on the ground with good scrambling ability, and will find submissions in all sorts of different positions. I like the value of Schnell at +250, but I like this fight too end inside the distance better at +120. 

Maverick vs Blanchfield 

Another solid match up. Both solid prospects and up & coming talent. Blanchfield won her UFC debut back in September of this year. She has solid striking but her strength is her grappling. She has heavy top control when she finds herself on top, and will look too grind her opponent down. She did have opportunities too finish a less talented opponent in her last match up, but failed too do so and won a UD. Maverick is coming off that bad decision loss back in July against a very good fighter, Maycee Barber. She is a technical striker with solid volume and pretty good power. She has good take downs, and averages just over 2 per fight. She is strong, especially when shes on top and has the ability too control her opponent from all sorts of positions. I like Maverick ML in this match up. She started the week at + money, but has since moved too a -135 favorite. 

Muniz vs Anders 

Like most of the fights on this card, this should be another good one. Muniz coming of that nasty win, when he broke Souza's arm back in May. He is a solid striker with legit power, but he does his best work on the ground. He is a serious threat when hes on the mat, no matter if hes on top or bottom. He is always looking for submissions and has shown some crazy finishes in his career. In comes Anders who is primarily a wrestler. Will he try and get Muniz down, knowing how dangerous he is, or will he look too strike? Normally Anders will use his striking too open up his take downs, and once he get's his opponents down, he looks too control them and beat them up. I think if Anders wants too win this fight, he needs to fight the perfect fight, and against someone as dangerous as Muniz, that will be tough. I lean Muniz here. 

Silva vs Wright 

Fireworks. That's what we should see in this fight. Both fighters always looking for the finish. This is Silva's 3rd fight this year. His last fight was in October. He was getting dominated until he got a 3rd round KO. He got taken down 7 times in that fight, but his power and cardio never faded, and he showed he is dangerous from start too finish. He isn't only dangerous in his striking, but if he gets on top, his ground & pound is lethal and he can finish his opponents from many different positions. He does own a 5-2 striking differential, which is a very impressive stat for someone as powerful and dangerous as him. Wright fight's with a karate style stance. He looks to move in and out of the pocket and throw combinations quickly. He does have good power, but will look too fight at range and move in and out. All his wins/losses have been finishes, and I think that streak continues in this fight. The odds makers are well aware of this, and have adjusted the lines accordingly. I will most likely pass on this fight. 

Tuivasa vs Sakai 

First & only heavyweight fight of the night. Sakai looking to get back on track after losing his last two VIA KO. He is a solid striker who likes too fight at close range. He uses his size too tie up his opponent, and likes too work his opponent's against the cage and grind them down. He will look to use knees/ elbows in these exchanges and really wear down his opponents as the fight goes on. Tuivasa is riding a 3 fight KO streak, and will look too keep that rolling here. He is the faster fighter of the two, and he will need his footwork and speed to avoid the clinch work of Sakai. He is the cleaner striker and I believe he is the more powerful striker. He does have lethal leg kicks, and I think he will use those well too keep Sakai at range and pick him apart with his shots. At even money I like Tuivasa here. 

Munhoz vs Cruz 

Even match up here, and the odds reflect this. Both guys aging, but both guys still very capable fighters. Cruz has mastered the art of angles & movement, and has used this in his career and has had a ton of success. He is very hard too hit, and uses his movement too frustrate his opponent, and picks his shots. He does average 3 take downs per fight, but he uses those when he finds himself in trouble mainly. Munhoz lost his last fight against Aldo, and in that fight he showed his age a little. He started well, but faded as the fight went on, which could be a sign of age. He does have solid kicks, and I think he needs them in this fight too nullify the movement of Cruz. If he can do that, I think he will have some opportunities in the striking department. I lean Cruz, but I will most likely pass on this fight. 

Emmett vs Ige 

Prelim fight of the night. Emmett on a 3 fight win streak, will look too keep things rolling. He is a wrestler by trade with solid power in his hands. His power was obvious in his last 6 fights, he had a knockdown in each of those fights. Although he is a wrestler, he has only attempted 2 take downs in his last 7 fights, which might not be the best idea in this match up. Ige is well rounded fighter. He was on a nice role in the UFC, until his last 3 fights going 1-2 in those contests. He has fought some tough opponents in his career, so he is no stranger to good competition. He is a kick boxer with good speed and solid power. He has solid take downs of his own when he needs them.  I give Ige the advantage in the striking department, and if the previous 7 fights are any indication of Emmet's dedication too striking, I lean Ige in this fight at +175 too get back on track with a victory. 

O'Malley vs Paiva 

1st fight on the main card. Odds have O'Malley as a sizable favorite, and I think its warranted. He is a powerful striker with elite accuracy. He is very athletic and very creative with his attacks. He also counter punches very well, and with someone like Paiva who is always looking too march forward, might play right into the style of O'Malley. Paiva also a solid striker with OK power. He is always looking too march forward and make the fight dirty. He showed in his last fight how durable he is, and showed he can take a lot of damage and never quits. He does have solid grappling, and can threaten submission if he finds himself on his back. I think O'Malley will sit back and pick Paiva apart. I do think Paiva toughness keeps him in this fight, so I do see some value in O'Malley by decision at +225. 

Garbrandt vs Kara-France 

Striker vs Striker here. This should be entertaining. Both guys like to box and exchange strikes, and I think you will see just that. Garbrandt is 1-4 in his last 5 fights, with 3 losses by KO. He has had chin issues in that span, but in his last 2 fights, he has shown a more technical approach rather then just rushing in looking for that 1 big shot. He does have good footwork and movement, so if he sticks to the technical approach, I think he should have success. Kara-France also a good striker with legit power. He has a positive 5-4 striking differential, and he loves throwing volume to frustrate his opponent & he will need that in this fight too keep Garbrandt backing up. At +125 I like this fight to go the distance or over 2.5 rounds at +100. I will monitor these lines as the week goes on before making a final decision. 

Neal vs Ponzinibbio 

Solid fight here. Neal is coming off 2 losses in a row, and he's dealing with a DUI charge a few weeks back around thanksgiving. That isn't a great look going into this fight, especially being so close too fight night. Neal is a striker with solid power and good volume. He does like too control the range and uses kicks too do so. He is at his best when hes the one dictating the pace of the fight, and in this fight, that might a tall task. He has shown to fade as the fight goes on, so keep an eye on that in this match up. Ponzinibbio will look too keep things going after a decision win back in June. He is a clean striker who loves to fight at range and pick his shots. He uses his range really well too keep his opponent at bay. I like Ponzinibbio too stay out of range and pick his shots early, and drag this fight out and frustrate Neal. I lean Ponzinibbio ML in this fight, but will look for a more creative way too bet him. 

Nunes vs Pena 

Co main event. Nunes returning too defend her 135 belt for the first time in 2 years. We all know Nunes, and how good she is so lets save the time. Pena on the other hand gets a title shot after a submission win back in January of this year. She isn't great at anything, but is OK everywhere. She is a tough and durable fighter who will look too make fights ugly, and that's what she will have too do too stand any chance here. I think Pena will look too close distance early, and perhaps tie Nunes up, and try and get it too the ground. I just don't see any other option for her if she wants to have any success. I lean over 1.5 rounds at -110.  

Great write ups ! Saving the best for last ? 

FYI, 

Priscila Cachoeira missed weight, the fight will continue. 

Matt Schnell fight cancelled 

Oliveira vs Poirier 

Main event, and this should be a really good, really close fight. Oliveira is one of the most complete fighters in the UFC, and he is dangerous just about anywhere. He has razor sharp striking with really good accuracy. His kicks are lethal and he throws them low & high. His wrestling is also solid, and he has very creative submissions from all sorts of different positions. If his opponent isn't aware of his position/surroundings he will take full advantage. Poirier is a elite boxer with a devastating jab. He will look to go in and out of the pocket and damage & wear down his opponent. He does have solid calf kicks, and that is a real weapon for him. His fight IQ is a strength, so I think he will be fully aware of his surroundings against someone like Oliveira. This fight is hard to predict, but I think it should last a little. Both guys are dangerous, but they are also very technical and tough. I lean Oliveira giving him the slight advantage, but I will not bet against Poirier. I like over 2.5 rounds at +120.  

@royboymiami

Prelim picks, 

Maverick ML -138 - 2 units to win 1.45 units 

Muniz inside the distance +105 - 1 unit to win 1.05 units 

Tuivasa ML -125 - 2 units to win 1.60 units 

Ige ML +125 - 1.5 units to win 1.87 units 

Main card picks, 

O'Malley by decision +210 - 1 unit to win 2.10 units 

Garbrandt/Kara-France over 2.5 rounds -110 - 1.5 units to win 1.36 units 

Ponzinibbio ML -125 - 1.5 units to win 1.20 units 

Nunes/Pena over 1.5 rounds -120 - 2 units to win 1.66 units 

Parlay, 

Costa ML/ Silva ML +102 - 2 units to win 2.04 units 

Kill em this weekend paletta! BOL

@The_Fist

 Thank you  GL my friend 

Paletta Main event should be a good fight.