UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka

2021- 73-97 +9.13 units 

YTD 96-149 +11.47 units 

 

 

Big step back last week in terms of profit, but we will bounce back this weekend with a solid card & some good spots. 

 

GL ALL 

GL this weekend, let's get some of that back my friend  

@The_Fist

@paletta007

Early ML leans are Emeev, Kape, Weili, Schevchenko, and Prochazka. 

I also like Santos by KO or submission, and Teixeria by submisison.

@PattyBates

 GL this weekend 

Pascual vs Edwards 

Opening fight of the night. Edwards is 1-2 since joining the UFC & is looking to get back on track after losing her last 2 fights. She is a kick boxer with solid striking & nice kicks. She likes to fight at range, and that is when she has the most success. She does struggle when her opponent is able too close the distance and pressure her, so that is something worth noting in this fight. Her take down defense is also below average which is another issue, especially against Pascual, who showed she is willing to shoot multiple take downs, and showed solid control time her her UFC debut. In comes Pascual who lost her UFC debut on short notice. She did look awful in the first round of that fight, but did get better as the fight went on. She is a Muay Thai striker and is big for the weight class. She likes to establish herself as the more physical fighter, and I expect the same in this fight. If she is able to close the distance on Edwards, I expect her too have a lot of success, and eventually use her striking to set up some take downs, and control Edwards for long periods of time in this fight. I lean Pascual in the fight as the underdog, as I think she has more ways to win, but if she isn't able too close the distance I can see Edwards out striking her for 3 straight rounds. I will wait until later in the week to make a final decision. 

Na vs Juarez 

Two ladies looking for their first UFC wins. Na is 0-1 after losing her debut last year. She is a non stop wrestler who is always looking for take downs and control time. The problem is, she is pretty one dimensional. Her striking is average, but her clear path to victory in almost all her fights is her wrestling. Her cardio has been suspect in some of her fights, so keep that in mind if your looking to back her. Juarez is 0-2 in the UFC, both losses VIA submission. She is a striker who does a good job at managing her range. She has real power, and that was on display in her last fight when she dropped her opponent clean in the 1st round. The problem with her is her take down defense and ground game. If she can keep this fight standing and stay at range, she will have the clear advantage and should win pretty easily, but against a non stop wrestler like Na, that will be a tall task. I would anticipate Juarez will be prepared for the wrestling, and should come in with a solid game plan, and for that reason I lean Juarez, but In no way am i ready to commit on this fight just yet. 

Kang vs Danaa 

This should be a pretty solid fight. Kang lost his last fight late last year after a 2 year layoff. He didn't look great in that fight, so it will be interesting to see how he bounces back after that loss. He is a well rounded fighter with a solid skill set. He is a decent striker who manages range well. He has solid grappling with solid take downs. If he can get you down he does have solid top pressure and does a good job at controlling his opponent. He has been very durable threw out his career, so if he can survive the initial barrage of Danaa, it will be interesting to see if he can start taking over this fight in rounds 2-3. In comes Danaa who is coming off a KO loss just a month ago. He is a very good striker with very real power. He has good volume and speed, and is a real threat on the feet. His take down defense is just over 50% so it will be interesting to see if Kang tries to expose that in this match up. All his UFC wins have been in the 1st round, and his 2 losses have been in rounds 2 & 3, so if he cant find the finish early, can he continue the pace and secure a victory?  I like the durability and experience of Kang to survive the 1st round and have more success in rounds 2 & 3, so at +120 I do like him as a slight underdog, but don't count out an early stoppage for Danaa.  

Fialho vs Matthews 

This should be a very entertaining fight. Fialho is making another quick turnaround after 2 first round finishes in the last 2 months. This will be his 3rd fight in 3 months. He is a striker with good power and very nice kicks. He has a nice jab and does have decent enough take downs if he needs them, but his strength is for sure his striking. I mentioned this in my past write ups, his defense needs work and he does get hit a lot, which is a big concern against better opposition. Matthews is making his return after a year long layoff. He is a very good grappler with solid wrestling. His striking is solid and he does a good job at mixing in body shots in his attack. He does average just over 2 take downs per fight, and that might be an area of opportunity for him in this fight. One issue with Matthews is his fight IQ. He tends too strike and brawl when he should wrestle/grapple, and decides to wrestle/grapple when he has the striking advantage. If he comes in with a solid game plan and shows better fight IQ, I think he will have opportunities to neutralize the striking of Fialho, I just don't think hes trust worthy enough to make that assumption. As of right now I don't have a lean in this fight, but I will monitor this fight as we get closer to the weekend & make a final decision. 

Maheshate vs Garcia 

Interesting fight here. Maheshate is making his official UFC debut at the young age of 23. He won on the contender series late last year as a huge underdog. He is a very diverse and creative striker with a wide variety of attacks. He likes to mix in kicks, elbows and spinning attacks in his fighting style. He can fight at range, but is also willing to fight in a brawl. When he is controlling the action he has success, but if you can apply pressure and stay in his face he does tend to struggle. This is only his 8th professional fight, so experience will not be on his side in this fight. Garcia is 1-1 since joining the UFC. He is a solid grappler with nice take downs. His striking is decent and he does a good job at using his striking to close distance and eventually set up those take downs. I think he will need his grappling in this fight too slow down and neutralize the explosiveness of Maheshate. If he can do that I think he will frustrate the inexperienced Maheshate and have success. If Garcia turns this into a striking match he could get himself in trouble which does worry me, especially at -170 price tag. I will most likely pass on this fight, but I anticipate a fun fight with a lot of action. 

Choi vs Culibao 

Striker vs Striker in what should be a fun fight. Choi is coming off a submission loss last year. He is a technical striker with solid power in his hands. He mixes in kicks well in his attack. He has nicely timed take downs which he uses to steal rounds and score points. Culibao is making his return after a year long layoff. He won his last fight VIA decision. He is a striker with an aggressive fighting style. He is very tough and is not scared to close the distance and make a fight ugly. He does have solid take down defense if he needs it. I think these guys go back and forth in a close striking battle. Choi should be the more technical striker, but Culibao could land the more damaging blows and win a close decision based on the bigger and more damaging shots. I like the fight to go the distance at even money.  

Allen vs Malkoun 

Prelim fight of the night. Two guys are coming off wins and both guys will look too keep things rolling. Allen is a BJJ black belt with good grappling, but has recently turned to his striking more often then not. He does a good job at mixing in kicks, and his striking has improved over the last few fights.  The problem with Allen's fighting style is how comfortable he has become striking, when he has the clear advantage in the grappling department. Yes his striking has improved, but his clear path in most fights is his grappling, and it's hard trusting a guy who has shown the willingness too completely abandon his best asset, especially as a big favorite like he is in this fight. Malkoun is a grappler who uses big looping power shots to set up the rest of his game plan. He likes to move forward and throw his big shots, and follows up with nicely timed take down attempts. If he gets on top of you he does have good control, and heavy ground and pound. One issue with Malkoun is he leaves himself open to be taken down with his big looping power shots, so keep that in mind, especially if Allen comes in with a grapple heavy game plan. Allen is taking a lot of money and his line has jumped as high as -335 after opening around -240. I most likely will pass on backing a side in this fight, but I do like the over 1.5 rounds in this fight. 

Maddalena vs Emeev 

Opening fight on the main card. This should be a very competitive fight. Maddalena won his debut earlier this year in the 1st round. He is a striker, and a pretty good one at that. He does a good job at applying pressure to his opponent, but also does a good job at managing range while applying that pressure. He has a very nice jab that lands clean and as the fight goes on becomes a real problem for his opponent. He moves well in the octagon and switches stances nicely, which gives his opponent a hard time at getting a solid read on him. His take down defense is solid, but it will be interesting to see how it holds up against Emeev in this spot. Emeev makes his return after a close decision loss late last year. He is a well rounded fighter with a solid skill set. He is a kick boxer who mixes in his wrestling very well. He has a chain wrestling style, and is relentless in his pursuit of the take down when he decides to shoot. He averages just over 2 take downs per fight. His cardio is an asset, and it supports his style of fighting. I think the X factor in this fight will be the take down defense of Maddalena. If he can keep this fight standing, I think he will have the advantage, but if Emeev starts tying up Maddalena and getting him to the ground, he could wear him down and slowly start taking over the fight. I think this is a true 50/50 fight and it will come down to who ever executes their game plan more effectively. As of right now I will pass, unless I see something on fight night.  

Bontorin vs Kape

Interesting fight here. Kape was scheduled to fight a few weeks ago, but tested positive for a banned substance. He was suspended, but since this fight is in Singapore he is able to fight on this card. Kape is riding a 2 fight stoppage win streak & will look to keep things rolling. He is a striker with very good speed and solid power in his hands. He has nice movement in the octagon which sometimes causes issues for his opponent, and really slows down his opponents output. He does have wrestling in his back pocket if he needs it, but his striking is for sure his best weapon. His take down defense is also solid & I'm sure it will be tested in this fight. In comes Bontorin who will look to get back on track here. He is a well rounded fighter with very solid grappling. His striking is solid, but it's mainly there too close distance and set up his grappling exchanges. If he gets on top he does have solid control, and stays very patient and works threw his transitions nicely. Both guys have shown to be conservative and very selective in there fights, so the over 2.5 rounds at +110 caught my eye in this fight. I will keep an eye on these odds as the week goes on and make a final decision on Saturday. 

Zhang vs Jedrzejczyk 

Rematch in what was a classic first fight. Zhang returns after losing 2 title fights to Rose. Her last fight was very close, and a lot of people actually had Zhang winning that fight. She is a striker with legitimate power for the division and very good volume. In her last fight she did show the willingness to wrestle and control her opponent which is something to keep an eye on in this rematch. She has good movement in the Octagon and is a tough opponent for just about anyone. Jedrzejczyk makes her return after 2 years and losing a very close 1st fight. She is an elite striker with good volume and accuracy. She does a good job at mixing in combinations and can really start to touch her opponent up when she finds her timing. She has very good take down defense, and I expect she will need that in this fight, as I think Zhang will look too grapple/wrestle in this fight. She has fought the very best in her career and has been apart of some of the biggest female fights in UFC history. The first fight was 5 rounds, and this will be 3 so keep that in mind when your deciding on your pick. Initially I liked Jedrzejczyk, but I'm starting to lean back towards Zhang as I think she could really implement a grapple heavy game plan and neutralize the striking of Jedrzejczyk. I think the 3 round fight favors Zhang in this match, especially if she steals the 1st 1-2 rounds while Jedrzejczyk is trying to find her timing and rhythm after the 2 year layoff. As of right now I lean Zhang, but I won't make a final decision until the weekend. 

Shevchenko vs Santos 

Co main event. Shevchenko looks to make her 7th title defense since winning the belt back in 2018. She is one of the best fighters on the roster in all weight classes. She is a dynamic and very technical striker. She has good volume and pin point accuracy in her strikes. She does have good grappling and has evolved into a complete fighters over the years. In her last few fights she has shown the ability to take down and completely dominate her opponent, which was not the case earlier in her career. I believe this will be her tallest task in terms of opponent, so it will be interesting to see how she deals with an aggressive and physical fighter like Santos. In comes Santos who will look to become champion after a pretty quick rise in the rankings. She is an athletic striker who fights with an aggressive and physical style. She has solid grappling and averages just over 2 take downs per fight. Her take down attempts are pretty clean and accurate when she does decide to shoot, so it will be interesting to see how she approaches this fight. Her fight IQ has held up in her short UFC career, which is something you want to see in a younger fighter, especially entering a title fight. Shevchenko sits at -600 and that's for good reason, but I do see an opportunity for Santos to make this fight ugly early and potentially getting Shevchenko on the ground and really test her in the early rounds. Santos by submission at +1400 caught my eye as a flier, as I think that might be her best way to secure a victory and pull off the big upset. I will most likely back Santos small for some action, but proceed with caution against one of the best and most dominate champions of all time in the UFC. 

Teixeira vs Prochazka 

Main event & this should be a fun one. Teixeira is making his 1st title defense at the young age of 42. He is 6-0 in his last 6 and is riding a 3 fight stoppage win streak. He has found a second wind in his career and its truly remarkable. He is a very well rounded fighter with a complete set of skills. He is a solid striker who fights with a higher guard, and looks to explode and use combinations to enter the pocket and work his way into his take down attempts and grappling exchanges. He is very strong and he uses that strength well to tie up and work his opponent to the mat. He averages just over 2 take downs per fight, and getting this fight to the ground might be his best path to victory in a very difficult match up. Prochazka is 2-0 since joining the UFC and has made a very quick rise to the top. Both his wins in the UFC have been VIA stoppage, and he is riding a 10 fight overall stoppage win streak. He is a very creative and diverse striker with an unorthodox fighting style. He is extremely dangerous and everything he throws has bad intent. He does have below average take down defense, but he has been training with Henry Cejudo to help prepare for this fight, so it will be interesting to see how he handles the grappling exchanges. His chin was tested and passed that test with flying colors in his last fight, as he took everything Reyes had to offer and kept marching forward and eventually found an incredible finish of his own. I think Glover has a path to victory in this fight, but I think the explosiveness and power of Jiri will be too much to handle. I will be backing Jiri in this fight, I just don't know how or how much action I want too take just yet. 

Prochazka Is starting to be my favourite pick on this card. I really think he gets the job done tonight. I will most likely have a big bet on him ML, just figuring out exactly how many units. 

I will post a few picks I have locked in before the fights start, but I will add bets as the card progresses like last week. 

GL ALL 

You got it bud. Big bounce back coming for ya!

@monkeebooger

 Thank you! Let's win some money tonight 

I really cant find much value on the prelim card. I might post some prelim picks when the card starts so stay tuned if interested. 

I have my biggest bet of the year on Jiri locked in. Depending on how the night goes I might add to it. 

GL ALL 

Locked in Picks, 

Shevchenko vs Santos fight to go distance (NO) -120 - 1.5 units to win 1.25 units 

Teixeira vs Prochazka under 1.5 rounds +105 - 1 unit to win 1.05 units 

Prochazka wins inside the distance -150 - 3 units to win 2 units 

Prochazka ML -210 - 25 units to win 11.90 units 

The rest of my picks will be posted as the fights take place. I will post them with time to spare so people following have time 

GL tonight & lets make some money 

I'm not going to play Glover ML out of respect for your Jiri bet lmao. Just some small sub rd 1 and 2 props, and sprinkled some on Jiri ko rd2 as well. GL with the big one tonight my friend 

@The_Fist

Don't hold off because of me! I just really like this spot for Jiri & his ML price tag is very manageable for me. I might even add more on him ML, depending on how I do on the early fights and where the market goes on the Jiri line. 

Regardless, GL tonight