Reed vs. Hughes - Both ladies coming off needed wins. Reed fought 2 months ago and Hughes about a month ago so not much rest time for either fighter. Reed is 1-1 in UFC, but her loss came on short notice and at 125 (she normally fights at 115) and she was just out of her element. I went against Hughes in her last fight vs. Istela Nunes and for the first 3 minutes the fight was going how i expected until Nunes just completely gassed out and ended up getting finished by Hughes in the 2nd round. Early Lean - Elise Reed ML (-170)....don't like laying that type of number on a WMMA bout at this level, but i've just never been impressed with Sam Hughes at all. Aside from the aforementioned loss Reed took in her UFC debut, she had been 11-1 in her career (including amateurs) and had a decent finish rate in that time. At 115, Reed has looked really strong and i think she stymies Hughes TD attempts and earns a decision
Hooper vs. Colares - tough one to call here. Both fighters really like to rely on their BJJ, but neither fighter is great at taking their opponent down to the mat. Their collective striking skills are even worse than their wrestling. Hooper is very long-limbed and uses that length when the fight gets to the mat to search for submissions. He is only 22 years old so perhaps his striking or even his grappling has grown and matured a bit since we last saw him get bullied by Steven Peterson. Colares last fought Chris Gutierrez, which i can't seem to recall, and came out with a split dec. loss which is kinda impressive...i need to re-watch that fight. I remember Colares specifically from his fight with Luke Sanders and just how much toughness and grit he showed. No Lean yet
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
some early thoughts
Reed vs. Hughes - Both ladies coming off needed wins. Reed fought 2 months ago and Hughes about a month ago so not much rest time for either fighter. Reed is 1-1 in UFC, but her loss came on short notice and at 125 (she normally fights at 115) and she was just out of her element. I went against Hughes in her last fight vs. Istela Nunes and for the first 3 minutes the fight was going how i expected until Nunes just completely gassed out and ended up getting finished by Hughes in the 2nd round. Early Lean - Elise Reed ML (-170)....don't like laying that type of number on a WMMA bout at this level, but i've just never been impressed with Sam Hughes at all. Aside from the aforementioned loss Reed took in her UFC debut, she had been 11-1 in her career (including amateurs) and had a decent finish rate in that time. At 115, Reed has looked really strong and i think she stymies Hughes TD attempts and earns a decision
Hooper vs. Colares - tough one to call here. Both fighters really like to rely on their BJJ, but neither fighter is great at taking their opponent down to the mat. Their collective striking skills are even worse than their wrestling. Hooper is very long-limbed and uses that length when the fight gets to the mat to search for submissions. He is only 22 years old so perhaps his striking or even his grappling has grown and matured a bit since we last saw him get bullied by Steven Peterson. Colares last fought Chris Gutierrez, which i can't seem to recall, and came out with a split dec. loss which is kinda impressive...i need to re-watch that fight. I remember Colares specifically from his fight with Luke Sanders and just how much toughness and grit he showed. No Lean yet
Martinez vs. Morales - Both men like to stand and strike. Martinez is the much more technical striker. He likes to stay at range using his jab and kicks to keep a safe distance from his opponent. He also has underrated wrestling/grappling if this fight gets there, but i doubt it does. Morales is a different striker in that he really enjoys getting into the pocket and banging the body , it will be interesting to see if Martinez can keep him at bay the entire fight. When it comes to power, i give the advantage to Morales but i think this goes the distance. Early Lean - Martinez by dec. (+125)
I'll try to get to the rest tomorrow...
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Martinez vs. Morales - Both men like to stand and strike. Martinez is the much more technical striker. He likes to stay at range using his jab and kicks to keep a safe distance from his opponent. He also has underrated wrestling/grappling if this fight gets there, but i doubt it does. Morales is a different striker in that he really enjoys getting into the pocket and banging the body , it will be interesting to see if Martinez can keep him at bay the entire fight. When it comes to power, i give the advantage to Morales but i think this goes the distance. Early Lean - Martinez by dec. (+125)
Morales vs. Medic - Uros Medic is the definition of a "kill or be killed" fighter. Only one of his fights has reached the 2nd round. Medic is a lengthy kickboxer who likes to blitz his opponents with explosive combinations and attacks. He lost his last fight to Jalin Turner by sub after he got taken down to the mat and really looked like a fish out of water. Fortunately for Medic, Omar Morales has looked equally uncomfortable on the mat in his fights. Morales likes to stand and trade, but unlike Medic, he really picks his spots and likes to use the entire cage to his advantage. Unfortunately for Morales, i think he will be drawn into Medic's style whether he likes or not. Early Lean - Omar Morales by stoppage....to me Morales is more battle tested and i think if he survives the initial onslaught from Medic, then he gets the finish. I may take Medic to win in 1st round (+550) AND take Morales by finish.
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Morales vs. Medic - Uros Medic is the definition of a "kill or be killed" fighter. Only one of his fights has reached the 2nd round. Medic is a lengthy kickboxer who likes to blitz his opponents with explosive combinations and attacks. He lost his last fight to Jalin Turner by sub after he got taken down to the mat and really looked like a fish out of water. Fortunately for Medic, Omar Morales has looked equally uncomfortable on the mat in his fights. Morales likes to stand and trade, but unlike Medic, he really picks his spots and likes to use the entire cage to his advantage. Unfortunately for Morales, i think he will be drawn into Medic's style whether he likes or not. Early Lean - Omar Morales by stoppage....to me Morales is more battle tested and i think if he survives the initial onslaught from Medic, then he gets the finish. I may take Medic to win in 1st round (+550) AND take Morales by finish.
Porter vs. Almedia - Jailton Almeida made his UFC debut on DWCS and was very impressive out-grappling a highly touted Russian fighter who he eventually tapped. He then went on and dominated Danilo Marques, but this time he is stepping up to HW after his usual LHW bout opponent dropped out. Almeida looks like he was built in an MMA laboratory, chiseled out of stone. So far i've only seen his UFC fights and one he had in Brazil in 2020 and it's clear what he wants to do, which is take his opponent down and pound them. His wrestling and grappling are very strong. His opponent, Parker Porter is not chiseled out of stone to say the least, but he is better conditioned than he looks. Porter has a decent reach for his size and constantly pumps out a jab-cross while utilizing good head movement to avoid counter-punches. Where Porter is likely to have trouble is in the grappling department when Almeida shoots. Porter is a wide man and can likely will be tough at first to get to the mat, but he carries a lot of weight and will tire trying to defend those TD's. Early Lean - Jailton Almeida by Stoppage....question is if it will be by sub or TKO, TKO is +325. Fun Fact: Porter got KO'd by Jon "Bones" Jones back in 2008 when they were both prospects fighting on the regional scene.
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Porter vs. Almedia - Jailton Almeida made his UFC debut on DWCS and was very impressive out-grappling a highly touted Russian fighter who he eventually tapped. He then went on and dominated Danilo Marques, but this time he is stepping up to HW after his usual LHW bout opponent dropped out. Almeida looks like he was built in an MMA laboratory, chiseled out of stone. So far i've only seen his UFC fights and one he had in Brazil in 2020 and it's clear what he wants to do, which is take his opponent down and pound them. His wrestling and grappling are very strong. His opponent, Parker Porter is not chiseled out of stone to say the least, but he is better conditioned than he looks. Porter has a decent reach for his size and constantly pumps out a jab-cross while utilizing good head movement to avoid counter-punches. Where Porter is likely to have trouble is in the grappling department when Almeida shoots. Porter is a wide man and can likely will be tough at first to get to the mat, but he carries a lot of weight and will tire trying to defend those TD's. Early Lean - Jailton Almeida by Stoppage....question is if it will be by sub or TKO, TKO is +325. Fun Fact: Porter got KO'd by Jon "Bones" Jones back in 2008 when they were both prospects fighting on the regional scene.
Amedovski vs. Holmes - Massive height and length difference here. Holmes is the taller, longer fighter and likes to utilize his grappling and get the fight to the mat and look for subs. 5 of his 7 wins have come from submissions. Holmes likes to keep the distance in the stand up and will throw his share of leg kicks and kicks to the body as deterrent to guys trying to get inside. He will have to use legs kicks frequently as Amedovski fights like he left the stove on. The only fight of his that went the distance was his tough debut vs. Krystof Jotko and Jotko is like the men's version of Kaitlyn Chookagian-just a decision machine. Amedovski wastes no time to get the fight into a brawl, but is also coming off a 2.5 year lay-off so there could be some rust and he may not rush in like he normally does....but i doubt it. Early Lean - Amedovski by TKO in round 1 (+600) not many of his fights make it out the first round. May take a shot on Holmes to win by Sub +215 as well
busy week for me, i'll see if i can get to the rest tonight or tomorrow
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Amedovski vs. Holmes - Massive height and length difference here. Holmes is the taller, longer fighter and likes to utilize his grappling and get the fight to the mat and look for subs. 5 of his 7 wins have come from submissions. Holmes likes to keep the distance in the stand up and will throw his share of leg kicks and kicks to the body as deterrent to guys trying to get inside. He will have to use legs kicks frequently as Amedovski fights like he left the stove on. The only fight of his that went the distance was his tough debut vs. Krystof Jotko and Jotko is like the men's version of Kaitlyn Chookagian-just a decision machine. Amedovski wastes no time to get the fight into a brawl, but is also coming off a 2.5 year lay-off so there could be some rust and he may not rush in like he normally does....but i doubt it. Early Lean - Amedovski by TKO in round 1 (+600) not many of his fights make it out the first round. May take a shot on Holmes to win by Sub +215 as well
busy week for me, i'll see if i can get to the rest tonight or tomorrow
Anders vs. Park - Jun Yong Park comes in as a 2 to 1 favorite and some think the odds should be flipped. Park does well in the stand-up by pumping out a heavy jab, but beyond that his striking skills are very average. He is also prone to getting taken down when flat footed defending strikes which i think his opponent will look to do. Eryk Anders is BIG middleweight who is constantly on that fringe of top-15, but never makes it over the hump. Anders has a lot of athletic ability, but it hasn't resulted in consistent success. He has power in his hands and kicks, but his technique is pretty sloppy and he leaves himself open to counter-strikes too frequently. He has the ability to control a fighter in the grappling department, but again his technique in his attempts to gain control usually leaves him just leaning on an opponent against the cage. Early Lean - Park by dec. this could also be a fight where i make a play on it being won by split or majority decision (usually around +450) I think the main difference here is that Anders is always gasping for air about 7 minutes into a 15 minute fight. Park isn't the greatest gas tank either, but he's shown better conditioning than Anders has over their careers. I think by the end of the 2nd round these guys are leaning on one another against the cage trying to rest, will be a tough fight to score, but fans will just be happy it's over.
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Anders vs. Park - Jun Yong Park comes in as a 2 to 1 favorite and some think the odds should be flipped. Park does well in the stand-up by pumping out a heavy jab, but beyond that his striking skills are very average. He is also prone to getting taken down when flat footed defending strikes which i think his opponent will look to do. Eryk Anders is BIG middleweight who is constantly on that fringe of top-15, but never makes it over the hump. Anders has a lot of athletic ability, but it hasn't resulted in consistent success. He has power in his hands and kicks, but his technique is pretty sloppy and he leaves himself open to counter-strikes too frequently. He has the ability to control a fighter in the grappling department, but again his technique in his attempts to gain control usually leaves him just leaning on an opponent against the cage. Early Lean - Park by dec. this could also be a fight where i make a play on it being won by split or majority decision (usually around +450) I think the main difference here is that Anders is always gasping for air about 7 minutes into a 15 minute fight. Park isn't the greatest gas tank either, but he's shown better conditioning than Anders has over their careers. I think by the end of the 2nd round these guys are leaning on one another against the cage trying to rest, will be a tough fight to score, but fans will just be happy it's over.
Viana vs. Ricci - Both women are grapplers and look to take the fight to the mat. I don't expect much stand-up here as neither fighters excel there, although sometimes that's what you get with two grapplers who don't want to get shown up on the mat by their opponent. Sounds odd, but it does happen. I don't see Tabatha Ricci going that route however. She is a very stocky wrestler, who shoots for takedowns and then looks to initiate ground n pound and win the control time battle, she had 5 TD's in her last fight. Viana also wants the fight on the mat, but she is looking to finish fights by submission instead. Early Lean - Tabatha Ricci by dec. Viana is the more well known name amongst fans since she has been around a bit, but Ricci is the slight favorite and rightfully so. I think she scores a TD each round and stays in control.
Todorovic vs. Njokuani - A very dangerous game could be played here. Todorovic is a pretty well-rounded fighter with solid power in his hands. He has wrestling ability, but rarely uses it enough...he should in this one. He has this habit in the stand-up of trying to bait his opponent to throw punches and he avoids them by backing straight away with his hand down (A big no-no in pro boxing known as "pulling back") and he tries to land counter-strikes off his opponents misses. Connor McGregor used to do this flawlessly in his prime (KO'ing Eddie Alvarez being a prime example). Dusko Todorovic is NOT Connor McGregor and if he tries this tactic with Chidi Njokuani there is a very good chance he goes to sleep. Chidi has a 79" reach and so Dusko's chin will be very hittable. Early Lean - Dusko Todorovic by stoppage...just an odd feeling here that Chidi will be a parlay buster for saturday night. Chidi is coming off a highlight reel KO and i think fans expect the same thing here and so should Dusko which is why he should utilize the same gameplan as he did in his last fight vs. Maki Pitolo and look for the Takedown. Chidi isn't very good on the ground and Todorovic has a clear advantage there.
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Viana vs. Ricci - Both women are grapplers and look to take the fight to the mat. I don't expect much stand-up here as neither fighters excel there, although sometimes that's what you get with two grapplers who don't want to get shown up on the mat by their opponent. Sounds odd, but it does happen. I don't see Tabatha Ricci going that route however. She is a very stocky wrestler, who shoots for takedowns and then looks to initiate ground n pound and win the control time battle, she had 5 TD's in her last fight. Viana also wants the fight on the mat, but she is looking to finish fights by submission instead. Early Lean - Tabatha Ricci by dec. Viana is the more well known name amongst fans since she has been around a bit, but Ricci is the slight favorite and rightfully so. I think she scores a TD each round and stays in control.
Todorovic vs. Njokuani - A very dangerous game could be played here. Todorovic is a pretty well-rounded fighter with solid power in his hands. He has wrestling ability, but rarely uses it enough...he should in this one. He has this habit in the stand-up of trying to bait his opponent to throw punches and he avoids them by backing straight away with his hand down (A big no-no in pro boxing known as "pulling back") and he tries to land counter-strikes off his opponents misses. Connor McGregor used to do this flawlessly in his prime (KO'ing Eddie Alvarez being a prime example). Dusko Todorovic is NOT Connor McGregor and if he tries this tactic with Chidi Njokuani there is a very good chance he goes to sleep. Chidi has a 79" reach and so Dusko's chin will be very hittable. Early Lean - Dusko Todorovic by stoppage...just an odd feeling here that Chidi will be a parlay buster for saturday night. Chidi is coming off a highlight reel KO and i think fans expect the same thing here and so should Dusko which is why he should utilize the same gameplan as he did in his last fight vs. Maki Pitolo and look for the Takedown. Chidi isn't very good on the ground and Todorovic has a clear advantage there.
Pereira vs. Ponzinibbio - Michele Pereira is a giant welterweight. On fight night he looks like he should be fighting at 205 instead of 170, the size difference between him and Ponzi will be massive. Pereira had been more of showman than a fighter when he started his UFC career and it cost him a couple fights because he would gas from doing all these extravagant moves, always looking for the highlight reel KO. Lately, he's really done a great job conserving his energy by cutting out the theatrics and in some instances has shown some great grappling ability. His bread and butter is his explosive striking. Pereira kind of lulls opponents to sleep by moving around the outside of the cage and jumping into explosive strikes and he connects very often. A lot of times Pereira's best defense is his offense because opponents are terrified of advancing and throwing a strike knowing they can be walking into a trap. Santiago Ponzinibbio is a very tough opponent for anybody. He is sort of the anti-Pereira in that he is usually advancing forward and pressuring his opponent, instead of setting traps. He isn't the most technical striker, but has a heavy jab and doesn't mind trading in the pocket. I don't think you will get much grappling here, both men love to strike...just have different styles to their game. Early Lean - Michele Pereira ML....a disciplined Michele Pereira is a very dangerous fighter and imo a legit title contender at 170, or really any weight class above that. Should be a really fun fight either way.
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Pereira vs. Ponzinibbio - Michele Pereira is a giant welterweight. On fight night he looks like he should be fighting at 205 instead of 170, the size difference between him and Ponzi will be massive. Pereira had been more of showman than a fighter when he started his UFC career and it cost him a couple fights because he would gas from doing all these extravagant moves, always looking for the highlight reel KO. Lately, he's really done a great job conserving his energy by cutting out the theatrics and in some instances has shown some great grappling ability. His bread and butter is his explosive striking. Pereira kind of lulls opponents to sleep by moving around the outside of the cage and jumping into explosive strikes and he connects very often. A lot of times Pereira's best defense is his offense because opponents are terrified of advancing and throwing a strike knowing they can be walking into a trap. Santiago Ponzinibbio is a very tough opponent for anybody. He is sort of the anti-Pereira in that he is usually advancing forward and pressuring his opponent, instead of setting traps. He isn't the most technical striker, but has a heavy jab and doesn't mind trading in the pocket. I don't think you will get much grappling here, both men love to strike...just have different styles to their game. Early Lean - Michele Pereira ML....a disciplined Michele Pereira is a very dangerous fighter and imo a legit title contender at 170, or really any weight class above that. Should be a really fun fight either way.
Holm vs. Vieira - Classic boxer vs. Grappler matchup. Holm is coming off a year and change layoff, so there maybe some ring rust and she is also 40 years of age. Holm is an elite kickboxer with great footwork as she moves in and out with exchanges and she doesn't absorb many strikes in return. Vieira is a pretty good grapple who usually tries to get her opponent to the ground and gain control time. Early Lean - Holly Holm by dec.....many times i like the grappler in this kind of matchup, but Holm does very to not get taken down and keep the fight on the feet. I think Holm's footwork and frenetic pace will be too much for Vieira to handle.
Best wishes to everyone on this Saturdays card, not sure i'll be around for it due to some family issues
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Holm vs. Vieira - Classic boxer vs. Grappler matchup. Holm is coming off a year and change layoff, so there maybe some ring rust and she is also 40 years of age. Holm is an elite kickboxer with great footwork as she moves in and out with exchanges and she doesn't absorb many strikes in return. Vieira is a pretty good grapple who usually tries to get her opponent to the ground and gain control time. Early Lean - Holly Holm by dec.....many times i like the grappler in this kind of matchup, but Holm does very to not get taken down and keep the fight on the feet. I think Holm's footwork and frenetic pace will be too much for Vieira to handle.
Best wishes to everyone on this Saturdays card, not sure i'll be around for it due to some family issues
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almost bet this by dec. or sub, glad i just went ML
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