i hope you guys like grappling lol. Dana put a whole card of grapplers together, but some really competitive fights too. Im going to keep these write-ups shorter like last week.
Demopoulos vs. Frey - Frey will want to stay on the feet and Demopoulos would gladly take it to the ground. Demopoulos got her clock cleaned in her last fight, but ended up grabbing an armbar sub. Frey isn't all that powerful, but has a clear striking advantage. I see Frey almost -300 favorite which is insane to me. Demopoulos ML +220 & Demopoulos by sub +800....would be a great way to start the card. If you like Frey it wouldn't be a bad idea to bet her by decision which is around even odds, she doesn't get many finishes and Demopoulos has only been finished once and that was as an amateur 11 years ago vs. UFC title contender Kaitlyn Chookagian
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
i hope you guys like grappling lol. Dana put a whole card of grapplers together, but some really competitive fights too. Im going to keep these write-ups shorter like last week.
Demopoulos vs. Frey - Frey will want to stay on the feet and Demopoulos would gladly take it to the ground. Demopoulos got her clock cleaned in her last fight, but ended up grabbing an armbar sub. Frey isn't all that powerful, but has a clear striking advantage. I see Frey almost -300 favorite which is insane to me. Demopoulos ML +220 & Demopoulos by sub +800....would be a great way to start the card. If you like Frey it wouldn't be a bad idea to bet her by decision which is around even odds, she doesn't get many finishes and Demopoulos has only been finished once and that was as an amateur 11 years ago vs. UFC title contender Kaitlyn Chookagian
Bautista vs. Kellenher - Bautista is a decent striker, but i expect Kellenher to use his grappling edge. Kellenher ML +140
Durden vs. Buys - Having a lot of trouble with this one. I think Durden has the better striking and is the stronger wrestler, but Buys is very slick on the ground and he REALLY needs a win. Idk how much his personal crap is going to effect him, all of these guys have stuff going on so who knows. No Lean
Morozov vs. Paiva - Morozov has grappling, but has gotten into some striking wars lately and it's exposed a bit of a weak chin. Paiva is game for a striking war, so this will be interesting to see if Morozov tries to grab hold and take this to the mat. Morozov ML - 140 Not a strong play at all
Brown vs. Shayilan - odds are a bit wonky to me here...TJ Brown shouldn't be an over -200 favorite over any featherweight. I like Shayilan +175 & Shayilan by sub +1200 a little different than Kevin Holland's method last week, Shayilan is a straight wrestler but had his share of rear naked choke's coming up thru China. Brown will give up his neck on the mat, +1200 is worth it.
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Bautista vs. Kellenher - Bautista is a decent striker, but i expect Kellenher to use his grappling edge. Kellenher ML +140
Durden vs. Buys - Having a lot of trouble with this one. I think Durden has the better striking and is the stronger wrestler, but Buys is very slick on the ground and he REALLY needs a win. Idk how much his personal crap is going to effect him, all of these guys have stuff going on so who knows. No Lean
Morozov vs. Paiva - Morozov has grappling, but has gotten into some striking wars lately and it's exposed a bit of a weak chin. Paiva is game for a striking war, so this will be interesting to see if Morozov tries to grab hold and take this to the mat. Morozov ML - 140 Not a strong play at all
Brown vs. Shayilan - odds are a bit wonky to me here...TJ Brown shouldn't be an over -200 favorite over any featherweight. I like Shayilan +175 & Shayilan by sub +1200 a little different than Kevin Holland's method last week, Shayilan is a straight wrestler but had his share of rear naked choke's coming up thru China. Brown will give up his neck on the mat, +1200 is worth it.
Nchukwi vs. Ulberg - Interesting fight. each guy is intimidating in their own way. Nchukwi has improved with every fight so far, getting more technical and patient, using his strength to his advantage. Ulberg is a long kickboxer and looks as if he could be close to 230 on fight night. I agree with the toss-up odds, but like Tafon Nchukwi ML -110 a couple things...Ulberg is great when he can advance forward and and show off his striking skills, but lately Nchukwi has done a great job with his clinch work and grappling up against the cage which is where he will try to have this fight, leaning and wearing on Ulberg who has gassed a bit in his 2 UFC bouts. Another thing, Ulberg almost looks scared to get hit at times, he was offered modeling jobs not too long ago so maybe he wants to have a fall-back option if fighting doesn't work out. He might be a bit gun shy vs. Nchukwi. This fight should be on the main card instead of Parisian vs. Cherant.
Vieira vs. Curtis - Another interesting fight. Grappler vs. Boxer. Curtis has had trouble with wrestlers in other promotions and this could be a staring contest for awhile. Vieira needs to watch his gas tank and set up his takedown attempts. Curtis likes to study his opponents for a few minutes and counter-punch once he sees what the other fighters got. Interesting shot i may take: Vieira by decision +900 everyone thinks either Vieira will choke him out or Curtis will get the TKO stoppage. Curtis usually struggles a bit with talented grapplers, but he does have good submission defense. Vieira may not want to tire himself out going for submissions, so lay and pray might be the strategy.
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Nchukwi vs. Ulberg - Interesting fight. each guy is intimidating in their own way. Nchukwi has improved with every fight so far, getting more technical and patient, using his strength to his advantage. Ulberg is a long kickboxer and looks as if he could be close to 230 on fight night. I agree with the toss-up odds, but like Tafon Nchukwi ML -110 a couple things...Ulberg is great when he can advance forward and and show off his striking skills, but lately Nchukwi has done a great job with his clinch work and grappling up against the cage which is where he will try to have this fight, leaning and wearing on Ulberg who has gassed a bit in his 2 UFC bouts. Another thing, Ulberg almost looks scared to get hit at times, he was offered modeling jobs not too long ago so maybe he wants to have a fall-back option if fighting doesn't work out. He might be a bit gun shy vs. Nchukwi. This fight should be on the main card instead of Parisian vs. Cherant.
Vieira vs. Curtis - Another interesting fight. Grappler vs. Boxer. Curtis has had trouble with wrestlers in other promotions and this could be a staring contest for awhile. Vieira needs to watch his gas tank and set up his takedown attempts. Curtis likes to study his opponents for a few minutes and counter-punch once he sees what the other fighters got. Interesting shot i may take: Vieira by decision +900 everyone thinks either Vieira will choke him out or Curtis will get the TKO stoppage. Curtis usually struggles a bit with talented grapplers, but he does have good submission defense. Vieira may not want to tire himself out going for submissions, so lay and pray might be the strategy.
Nurmagomedov vs. Maness - Only question is how long will this last. Maness is a fugazi 14-1, every one of UFC fights so far he has gotten lit up in the 1st round and his opponents run out of time trying to get the finish and wear themselves out. His fight vs. Luke Sanders he was literally throwing punches while turning his head and looking away like a chick in a bar fight. A combined 28-1 record between these 2, but Nurmagomedov is LEVELS above what Maness is. There is good reason he is around -1000 ML. Fanduel usually offers a 2 round prop, like "fighter x to win in rounds 1 OR 2" so i'll see what that number is closer to fight time. I'll go Under 1.5 rounds +125 just to put something on record and i expect the round prop i mentioned to have similar odds.
Moises vs. Giagos - Not a lot to say here. Giagos fights a bit emotional and it wears him out sometimes, Moises is the complete opposite - very technical on the feet and well-versed in grappling and BJJ. Moises is the pick here but laying around -250 i just can't do it. May do a parlay with Moises and Kelleher which would be around +240. If Kellerher gets it done i'll feel like i'm home free
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Nurmagomedov vs. Maness - Only question is how long will this last. Maness is a fugazi 14-1, every one of UFC fights so far he has gotten lit up in the 1st round and his opponents run out of time trying to get the finish and wear themselves out. His fight vs. Luke Sanders he was literally throwing punches while turning his head and looking away like a chick in a bar fight. A combined 28-1 record between these 2, but Nurmagomedov is LEVELS above what Maness is. There is good reason he is around -1000 ML. Fanduel usually offers a 2 round prop, like "fighter x to win in rounds 1 OR 2" so i'll see what that number is closer to fight time. I'll go Under 1.5 rounds +125 just to put something on record and i expect the round prop i mentioned to have similar odds.
Moises vs. Giagos - Not a lot to say here. Giagos fights a bit emotional and it wears him out sometimes, Moises is the complete opposite - very technical on the feet and well-versed in grappling and BJJ. Moises is the pick here but laying around -250 i just can't do it. May do a parlay with Moises and Kelleher which would be around +240. If Kellerher gets it done i'll feel like i'm home free
Baudot vs. Parisian - Yuck, why the hell is the UFC doing this, let alone putting it on the main card. This fight should be taking place friday night in Bellator. No i don't have a pick and i likely won't play it. MMA factory in France has much better fighters than Baudot, Imavov and Gane are in UFC already, but Dana needs to bring over 'Lazy King' and Lapilus.
Magny vs. Shavkat - much needed step-up fight for Shavkat. Magny is a solid test, solid everywhere but not really great either. Shavkat is the definition of 'well-rounded' , Magny has looked....lethargic as of late, even in his wins. Shavkat has won every fight (15-0) by finish. Not laying 4 to 1, No play yet
Gamrot vs. Tsarukyan - Great fight, 2 grapplers with a bit different styles. Gamrot is the better athlete, has better striking and quicker feet and chain wrestles his takedown, whereas Tsarukyan just clamps his hands together and drags you down to your butt, sheer power. I got to agree with Tsarukyan being the moderate favorite at -300 on some books. Tsarukyan fought Islam Makachaev 3 years ago and it was a really competitive fight and Tsarukyan was giving him lots of trouble in the opening round, while only being 22 years old. The area i do worry about him though in this being a 5 rounder is if he can keep it up for 25 minutes if he doesn't get a finish. Gamrot is a high-level fighter and if this gets into the 2nd half the leaner Gamrot may have more in the tank. Interesting bets: Tsarukyan to win in rounds 4, 5 or by decision +110...solid chance this goes the whole way, so if you don't want to lay the juice on Tsarukyan not sure how i'm playing this
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Baudot vs. Parisian - Yuck, why the hell is the UFC doing this, let alone putting it on the main card. This fight should be taking place friday night in Bellator. No i don't have a pick and i likely won't play it. MMA factory in France has much better fighters than Baudot, Imavov and Gane are in UFC already, but Dana needs to bring over 'Lazy King' and Lapilus.
Magny vs. Shavkat - much needed step-up fight for Shavkat. Magny is a solid test, solid everywhere but not really great either. Shavkat is the definition of 'well-rounded' , Magny has looked....lethargic as of late, even in his wins. Shavkat has won every fight (15-0) by finish. Not laying 4 to 1, No play yet
Gamrot vs. Tsarukyan - Great fight, 2 grapplers with a bit different styles. Gamrot is the better athlete, has better striking and quicker feet and chain wrestles his takedown, whereas Tsarukyan just clamps his hands together and drags you down to your butt, sheer power. I got to agree with Tsarukyan being the moderate favorite at -300 on some books. Tsarukyan fought Islam Makachaev 3 years ago and it was a really competitive fight and Tsarukyan was giving him lots of trouble in the opening round, while only being 22 years old. The area i do worry about him though in this being a 5 rounder is if he can keep it up for 25 minutes if he doesn't get a finish. Gamrot is a high-level fighter and if this gets into the 2nd half the leaner Gamrot may have more in the tank. Interesting bets: Tsarukyan to win in rounds 4, 5 or by decision +110...solid chance this goes the whole way, so if you don't want to lay the juice on Tsarukyan not sure how i'm playing this
I might be around Friday night to place some PFL and Bellator
bellator card is nothing great (what else is new) PFL looks like it might be filled with stoppages. some mismatched Heavyweight fights, some new 'former' ufc fighters added. I hit 3 of 4 bets on PFL last week i didn't post because i was busy, but if i do play any i'll put them in this thread
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@The_Fist
Best wishes Fist
I might be around Friday night to place some PFL and Bellator
bellator card is nothing great (what else is new) PFL looks like it might be filled with stoppages. some mismatched Heavyweight fights, some new 'former' ufc fighters added. I hit 3 of 4 bets on PFL last week i didn't post because i was busy, but if i do play any i'll put them in this thread
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i just can't do it. May do a parlay with Moises and Kelleher which would be around +240. If Kellerher gets it done i'll feel like i'm home free
not sure how i'm playing this 
....should have known better betting on Loughnane to finish even this scrub. Huskic is fighting a guy with 1 eye and couldn't even land a punch
of course i don't post my last 2 and they win (Adams by TKO/ko, Llara Joanne ML)
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