UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs Gastelum

YTD - 16-28 -1.64 units 

Glad too have UFC back this weekend after a profitable PFL event last weekend. 

Interesting card this weekend, will post plays and write up's as the week rolls on 

GL ALL  

Palatnikov vs Brahimaj 

First fight of the night. Ramiz lost his UFC debut back in November of last year. Fought a very durable and talented Max Griffin and lost. If you watched that fight, you remember Ramiz's ear almost falling off. In his career his 8 wins are all by submission. I think his game plan should and will be to get this fight to the ground. I think he uses his solid jab too keep Palatnikov off balance and works in his takedowns nicely. Palatnikov is coming off a submission in his last fight.  Sasha is an aggressive brawler style fighter, and has no issues taking shots to return a shot. Nothing scares me about Sasha in this fight, but it will be interesting to see how Brahimaj bounces back after that rough loss. I will continue looking into this fight as the week progresses.  

Roberts vs Bahamondes 

Oh boy. Roberts coming of a horrible loss. Roberts lost almost a year ago against Kevin Croom. In that fight Roberts was -600 and lost in the first round. Got rocked and finished by a Standing Guillotine 30 seconds into the fight. His fight before that he got submitted by Jim Miller, also in the first round. This time around he's fighting a younger Bahamondes. Roberts needs to get back on track here, but I don't think this fight will be easy. Roberts strength's are his speed and accuracy, throw's with precision. Bahamondes coming off a split decision loss back in April. Both fighter's have size and reach so it will be interesting to see who uses it to their advantage. Currently sitting around -135 this is a bargain compared to Robert's last couple fights. I will look into a prop here, if not sit back and see if Robert's can get back on track. 

Knight vs Cherant 

Interesting fight here. Both fighter's coming off losses earlier this year. Knight lost a unanimous decision where he was out wrestled and dominated for 3 rounds. Cherant lost in the first round by Von Flu Choke, tricky submission. I think Cherant is the more technical fighter, and has more too offer. Knight obviously is very powerful, and if he finds himself on top he can deliver severe damage, but I'm not sold on Knight being able to get there at ease. I think Cherant can use his athletic ability to move around, keep Knight guessing and off-balance and can dictate how the fight unfolds.  Yes Knight has the knockout power, but at +170, Cherant is hard to pass up on. 

Malecki vs Nunes 

First and only ladies fight on this card. Malecki coming into this fight winning her first two UFC fights. She's looked solid in both fights and possesses solid power and good grappling. In this fight Malecki will have a huge size/reach advantage. Will that play a factor? From what I've seen, Nunes throws with intent, looking for the kill. She's aggressive. Does that play into her advantage? Will she get into the pocket and hurt Malecki? Or will Malecki keep her at bay and pick her apart? I think this fight will have some fireworks. I will be watching this line as we approach the weekend. 

Kelleher vs Pilarte 

Kelleher return's to bantamweight in this fight. I think that better suits him after losing 2 out of his last 3 at featherweight. Kelleher is experienced, hard nose fighter who will look to grind out wins with his well rounded arsenal. Pilarte has a sizeable reach advantage in this fight, which plays into his style, which is fighting at range. I think if Kelleher can mix in grappling & wrestling he will have success. The odds currently have Kelleher -185 which in my opinion is too wide. 

Lingo vs Saldana 

Both fighters coming into this fight with victories. Should be a good fight. Saldana riding a 5 fight win streak, recently started training with Henry Cejudo which should help his cause. Lingo is a very good striker and has good power & great technique and head movement. I think the odds have this right, giving Saldana the slight edge, but I'm not ready to bet against Lingo at this point.  

Pantoja vs Royval 

Great match up here. Both fighters have fought great competition. Experience might be on the side of Pantoja, but I think Royval has more then enough of his own experience. Pantoja won his last fight against Kape back in February, and looked good in that fight. He has great grappling, good kicks, solid ground game with heavy ground and pound. Royval is coming off a loss against the now Champ Moreno. Before that loss he was on a 4 fight win streak, all wins by submission. Royval is a preasure fighter, has creativity and moves around the Octagon very well. Having a hard time picking a side here, but these fighters are both dangerous and I smell fireworks.   

Pichel vs Hubbard 

This fight is a battle of opposite styles. Pichel want's to wrestle you and control you, Hubbard want's to keep it on the feet. Pichel isn't the most active fighter, fighting only twice since 2019. Hubbard fought 6 times in that time span. Hubbard has shown if he is taken down he does have the ability to get back up, but Pichel is an older fighter with experience so it will be interesting to see how Hubbard fairs here. Odds have this as a coin flip, but I lean towards the younger more active fighter Hubbard, although I'm not loving it.   

Porter vs Sherman 

Originally slated for April, we get our first and only heavyweight fight of the night. Sherman coming off a decision loss in his last fight against the veteran Arlovski. Sherman is the bigger fighter and holds a 3 inch reach advantage. Porter won his last fight back in November 2020. He showed in that fight he has solid kicks, mixes in take downs with control and bounces around when he's on his feet. I think Porter can use his movement and kick's to make up for the size difference. I lean the underdog in this fight, but I will wait and see if the odds change closer to the weekend. 

Guida vs Madsen 

The ever so durable Guida is back in action. Who hasn't this guy fought? This time he gets the undefeated 36 year old Madsen. In Guida's last fight earlier this year he won a UD against Michael Johnson. In that fight he still showed his strength is his pace and footwork. His cardio never seems too fade, and he's always coming forward. He's an above average wrestler, and I think this time around Guida will look to mix up his attack and drag this fight out and ware out Madsen. Madsen is an Olympic wrestler, and he showed that in his last fight against Hubbard. He had 8 take down's in that fight with very little resistance from Hubbard. His striking isn't his strength, and I think if Guida can stuff some take down's early, and scramble when he does get taken down, Madsen might fade as the fight goes on. I'm leaning Guida at + odds. 

Cannonier vs Gastelum

Solid main event. Both fighter's coming off decision losses, both lost to Whitaker. Gastelum is 1-5 in his last 5 fights, but he's fought some of the best guys around. Cannonier is 3-2 in his last 5, and has also fought some really good opponents in that span. Both guy's need a win to get back on track here. Cannonier is a former heavyweight with tremendous power, and good kicks. Gastelum is the more complete fighter, great wrestler, heavy hands and has never been Knocked out in his career. This is a 5 round fight, and I think that favors Gastelum. I think Gastelum being 1-5 in his last 5 fights play a role in his current price of +140. Gastelum's knock in my opinion is his inconsistency. Will he show up with a solid game plan? I think if he does, he's worth a look with more path's to victory.  

Great stuff here!

@dcp1985

  I should have my final picks tomorrow! Thanks 

GL this weekend man!

@The_Fist

Prelim picks, 

Brahimaj wins inside distance +162 - 1 unit to win 1.62 units 

Cherant ML +150 - 1.5 units to win 2.25 units 

Cherant wins inside distance +300 - 0.50 units to win 1.50 units 

Malecki/ Nunes fight to go distance (NO) +100 - 1 unit to win 1 unit 

Lingo wins inside distance +333 - 0.25 units to win 0.83 units 

Main Card picks, 

Royval ML +150 - 2 units to win 3 units 

Porter ML +162 - 1 unit to win 1.62 units 

Guida ML +140 - 1 unit to win 1.40 units 

Cannonier/ Gastelum fight to go distance(NO) -120 - 2 units to win 1.66 units 

Gastelum wins inside distance +400 - 0.50 units to win 2 units 

That fight against Croom was a NC. 

@jaybucko

Yes it was, Croom tested for weed..

Robert's still lost the fight, in very disappointing fashion. 

I like Robert's, I'm high on him, but I don't like backing a fighter on a 2 fight losing streak, especially at -170 odds. I will be watching closely 

Robert's looked awful in this fight. Besides his jab, he had nothing. Looked uninterested and looked to quit in the 3rd round. Brutal KO too finish him off in the 3rd round.. Wonder what's next for him...

That looked fixed, ain't no way you can have a glass chin that poor. wasn't even a punch

@Merlin69

 Which fight? 

Cherant

adding++++ 

Kelleher/Pilarte fight to go distance(YES) +200 - 0.50 units to win 1 unit