UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira

2021- 73-97 +9.13 units 

Decent fight night this upcoming weekend. 

I have a really busy week ahead. I will try and post write ups if I can find some time. 

Worst case I will post picks and some thoughts on Saturday. 

GL ALL 

Reed vs Hughes 

First ladies fight of the night. Both fighters making quick turnarounds. Reed is 1-1 since joining the UFC. She had an impressive win last time out as a decent size underdog. She fights with good pace and pressure and loves too outwork and stay in the face of her opponent. Her cardio is solid and it holds up well with her style of fighting. Her striking is solid and she does have solid power for the weight class. Her grappling is solid and she does a decent job at mixing things up. In comes Hughes. She is 1-3 since joining the UFC & is coming off a solid win. She is a striker and is big for the weight class. One negative is she gets hit a lot and has a negative striking differential of 1-2, and that could be an issue against Reed in this spot. She did show her grappling in her last fight with some solid take downs and decent control time, so it will be interesting if she can establish that again in this fight. I lean Reed in this fight as I think her striking and power will be too much for Hughes, who has shown too absorb too much damage in her fights. I will most likely back Reed , I just don't know how just yet. 

Hooper vs Colares 

Interesting match up. Two guys who have very similar fighting styles. Hooper is 2-2 in the UFC and is only 22 years old. He is coming off a disappointing loss about a year ago. He has very slick grappling, but his take down accuracy sits at just 18% which is an issue for his fighting style. His striking is improving and he will need that so he can mix up his attack and not be one dimensional. One negative about Hooper is he does get comfortable laying on his back and he does very little in terms of getting back too his feet. He is tough and durable for such a young prospect and I would assume we see an improved version from the last time we seen him fight. Colares is 2-3 since joining the UFC. He like Hooper has very solid grappling and BJJ, but has very little in terms of natural take down attempts. He has solid cardio and like Hooper, he is very tough and durable, and has yet too be finished in his career. His major flaw would be his defense, and he has a negative differential of 2-5 which is very concerning. Odds have Colares as a -170 favorite which I think is wide, but he should be the more physical imposing fighter in this fight, and could find himself controlling Hooper for long periods in this fight. I will continue too watch these odds during the week and make a final decision later in the week.  

Martinez vs Morales 

This should be a fun fight. Martinez is riding a 2 fight decision win streak. He is a well rounded fighter with a solid skill set.  He has technical striking with decent power in his hands. He uses kicks well too manage his range. He does have solid grappling and pretty slick BJJ on the mat, and can absolutely threaten submissions if the opportunity presents itself. He does have solid wrestling and seems too be a much more dangerous fighter when he mixes in take downs, the problem is, he doesn't always turn too his wrestling. In his last fight he did win a decision, but didn't look all that convincing. In comes Morales who is on a 2 fight win streak. He had a nice KO loss back in December of last year. He is a decent striker with legitimate power in his hands. He has nice forward pressure and uses that too keep the pressure and pace on his opponent. He has good movement and never seems to be flat footed. He does have wrestling in his bag of tricks so that could be an area he looks too exploit in this fight. He has shown too slow later in some of his fights, so keep that in mind if you think of backing him here. He is gritty and tough and is a tough out for any fighter. Odds makers have Martinez as a -225 favorite in this fight, which I think is crazy. Yes Martinez is the more complete and well rounded fighter, but he seems to struggle against high output and high pressure fighters, and that is exactly how Morales fights. I'm not sure if I'm ready too back Morales just yet, but his +187 price tag is enticing. 

Morales vs Medic 

Two guys coming off submission losses. Morales was taken down 6 times in his last fight, and then submitted. He is a solid kick boxer with decent power and mixes in kicks nicely. He did have solid take down defense, but last fight he did show some vulnerability in that area. He has nice forward pressure and does a good job at controlling the exchanges and the octagon. I think he will be the more physical fighter in this fight, and Morales ability too grapple might give him the edge in this striking match up. Medic suffered his first career loss in his last fight. He is a high caliber striker with legitimate power in his hands. He has a 100% finish rate, win or lose. He starts quick and looks too pounce on his opponent early, and does a good job at finishing them if he has them on the ropes. He showed in his last fight that he doesn't have much too offer on the ground, and that is concerning against the more well rounded fighter. This should be a close match up, but I lean Morales as the more complete and tested fighter. I don't like the -150 price tag they are giving Morales, so I will most likely pass on this fight unless I see something different later in the week. 

Porter vs Almeida 

First and only heavyweight fight of the night. Porter is riding a 3 fight winning streak, all wins VIA decision. Porter is a volume striker who fights with a really high pace for the division.  He has solid footwork and moves well. He mixes in kicks nicely and has solid power for the amount of volume he throws. He does have solid wrestling & that is something he likes too mix in his game plan. He does have solid take down defense, and if that holds up in this match, he could have success as the fight goes on. He is a smaller heavyweight, so don't expect him too have a huge size advantage, even though Alemida is moving up too heavyweight in this fight. Almeida won his debut earlier this year. He is a solid prospect who will look too keep things going. He is a solid striker who has really good grappling. He looks too throw heavy shots and eventually will look for take downs and smother his opponent on the mat. He is relentless in his take downs, but if he doesn't find success early, it will be interesting too see how he deals with his cardio in rounds 2-3, especially against Porter who is experienced in 3 round decisions. I'm not sure why Almeida is moving up too heavyweight, so this is a really odd match up. Almeida has all the tools at his disposal too win this fight, but if he cant finish Porter early, I can see Porter slowly taking the fight back and turning this into a dirty and ugly decision. I like the over 1.5 rounds at +105 and I might even back Porter on the ML with a small position. I will make a final decision later in the week. 

Holmes vs Amedovski 

Interesting match up. Holmes lost his UFC debut on short notice back in January. He is a tall and long fighter for the division, but doesn't always use that length and size too his advantage. He is a decent striker, but tends to be too conservative with his striking. He looks too tie up and grapple his opponent, and eventually work in take downs. He is solid on the ground and has nice transitions and control. In comes Amedovski who is making his return after a 3 year layoff. He is 0-2 since joining the UFC. He is a power striker who is always looking too land his power shots. He does have wholes in his grappling, and that could ultimately be the X factor in this fight. I Think Holmes should have success in this fight, but against someone returning after 3 years, there is too many questions marks surrounding this fight. I will most likely pass on betting this fight, unless I see something later in the week. 

Anders vs Park 

Opening fight on the main card. Anders is looking to get back on track after getting submitted last time out. He is a wrestler with solid striking and decent power. He does have nice kicks and does a good job at mixing them in. He does have poor defense and that is a very big issue in some of his more recent fights. If he can get you down and on top, he does have solid control and does a good job at inflicting damage. If he can secure some take downs, he could find success in this fight. Park lost VIA KO last time out. He is 3-1 in his last 4 fights. He is a well rounded fighter. He has a nice jab, and does a good job at controlling the octagon. He does average just over 3 take downs per fight, and he does have some nice set ups for those take down attempts. His cardio has held up and that is an asset for him. He isn't the most dangerous fighter, but he does a good job at fighting too his strength and his opponents weakness. I lean Park here, but at his current price tag & coming off that KO loss, I'm not sure If I want too back him just yet. 

Viana vs Ricci 

This should be a good fight. Viana is 3-3 since joining the UFC, all 3 wins VIA submission. She is a grappler who is very dangerous on the ground. Her problem is her take downs aren't great and she rely's on scrambles and her opponent to make mistakes in order too gain control on the mat. She does have decent striking, and in this fight she might look too keep the fight standing too have success. In comes Ricci who is 1-1 in the UFC. She lost her debut on short notice, but bounced back with a nice victory back in October of last year. She is grappler, but unlike Viana, she does have solid take downs. If she gets on top she has really good control and heavy ground & pound. She uses her ground & pound nicely too set up submission attempts so keep an eye on that. In her last match up she had 5 take downs, so I would expect her too establish those take downs early and look too be the more physical fighter in this fight. I expect a close fight, but I lean Ricci in this fight. I will see how the ML odds looks later in the week, and see if I can find a better price. 

Njokuani vs Todorovic 

This fight should be exciting. Njokuani won his UFC debut back in February in 16 seconds. He is a striker with fast hands and legitimate power. He moves well and he makes it hard for his opponent too get a read on him. He does a good job at managing his range and fighting on the outside. He is vulnerable too the take downs if his opponent can close the distance and get on the inside, but easier said then done. Todorovic is 2-2 since joining the UFC. He is a well rounded fighter with technical striking and solid power in his hands. He does have solid volume and he uses his big shots too set up decent take downs. He does have solid offensive BJJ & against the ever so dangerous Njokuani, working in some grappling might be a good idea. He does have poor defense at times and has had chin issues in the past, so against a fast and powerful striker like Njokuani, it is a very concerning match up. I do like the price tag of Todorovic, especially if hes able too grapple and work in some take downs, but I'm not ready too commit yet. I might pass on this fight, unless I see something later in the week. 

Ponzinibbio vs Pereira 

Co main event & this should be a fun fight. Ponzinibbio is 1-2 in his last 3. He lost a disappointing decision last time out. He is a solid striker who likes too fight at range and does a really good job at managing his range. His striking is very clean and he uses volume as an asset and likes too keep the pressure on his opponent. In comes Pereira who is riding a 4 fight win streak. He is a well rounded fighter with a very creative skill set. People know him for his wild fighting style, but recently he has gotten a lot more technical and has matured as a fighter, and it has served him well on this wining streak. He is a solid striker who mixes in kicks very nicely. He has good grappling, and In this match up he should turn too it, and should have the clear advantage in that area. Hes quick on his feet and has solid power in his strikes. His cardio was an issue earlier in his career, but his last 3 victories were all decisions, and his cardio in those fights seemed too be just fine. Ponzinibbio is a tough opponent with a lot of experience, but I think Pereira has the edge in all areas in this fight and is the more explosive and dangerous fighter of the two. I lean Pereira on the ML, but this should be a really close fight.  

Holm vs Vieira 

Main event. Holm returns after a year+ long layoff. Holm is a kick boxer with very clean striking. She has great movement and does a good job at controlling the octagon and keeping her opponent at bay, while landing her strikes. She does have solid take down defense at 77% and that might be tested in the fight. Yes she is 40 years old, but her style of fighting allows for success later into a career. In comes Vieira who is 3-2 in her last 5. She is a powerful striker, who likes too march forward and keep the pressure on her opponent. She likes too use her size and physicality too close the distance and tie her opponent up, and eventually work in trip style take downs. If she gets on top, she does have good control and heavy top pressure. She isn't the fastest fighter, but makes up for it with her size and strength. Holm is -250 which I think is wide, but Vieira's forward pressing style plays right into the fighting style of Holm, and she might find herself chasing Holm for 5 rounds and get outworked and outscored in a boring decision. I will most likely pass on this fight. 

BOL this saturday!!

@BigMick87

All fighters successfully made weight 

CFL 

GL my friend!

@The_Fist

Finalizing card, will post picks soon 

Prelim picks, 

Reed wins inside distance +550 - 0.5 units to win 2.75 units 

Hooper ML +170 - 1 unit to win 1.70 units 

Hooper vs Colares fight ends inside distance (YES) +100 - 2 units to win 2 units 

Medic ML +120 - 5 units to win 6 units 

Porter vs Almeida over 1.5 rounds +130 - 1.5 units to win 1.95 units 

Parlay, 

Reed ML/ Martinez ML +134 - 1 unit to win 1.34 units 

I will post main card picks in a bit, stay tuned 

GL ALL 

Didn’t lock this pick in. Cancelled, sorry for confusion

LOCKED IN PICKS -  

Prelims, 

Reed wins inside distance +550 - 0.5 units to win 2.75 units 

Hooper ML +170 - 1 unit to win 1.70 units 

Hooper vs Colares fight ends inside distance (YES) +100 - 2 units to win 2 units 

Medic ML +120 - 5 units to win 6 units 

Porter vs Almeida over 1.5 rounds +130 - 1.5 units to win 1.95 units

I will post the rest of my picks as the night goes on. GL ALL