UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot

2021- 73-97 +9.13 units 

YTD 110-163 +70.60 units 

Another solid weekend of fights this past weekend and a nice profit. 

We look to keep things rolling this weekend with another solid fight night. 

GL ALL 

Nice job bro. Keep crushing 

@monkeebooger

you see a similar outcome with Chris Curtis-Vieria this week, like you did Buckley-Duraev?

@BigMick87

 Tough to say. I like to see how the market reacts and watch the line movements as we approach the weekend. 

Frey vs Demopoulos 

Opening fight of the night. Both ladies coming off victories in there last fights. Frey is 2-0 in her last 2 fights & looks to keep things rolling. She is a well rounded fighter with solid experience. Her best asset is that experience and her fight IQ. She has solid striking, and she uses that striking well to set up her grappling exchanges. She is very strong and physical, and she's at her best when shes able to use her physicality and bully style. In her last fight she was aware of her opponents grappling ability and won a striking match up, so again that shows her fight IQ, and her willingness to fight to her opponents weakness. In comes Demopoulos who is coming off a submission victory earlier this year. She is a solid striker with good movement and speed. Her grappling is her best asset, and she is very active off her back. In her last fight she was losing and got dropped pretty bad, but was still able too secure a submission victory once her opponent jumped onto her. If she can close the distance and work in some clinch work she could have success, and maybe get this fight to the ground, which in my opinion would be her best path to a victory, but that will be a tall task against the more physical and strong fighter in Frey. I think Frey will have the experience and technical advantage, but if Demopoulos can make this ugly and gritty she could find a finish in this fight. I will most likely pass on this fight, but Demopoulos inside distance at +600 could be worth a flier. 

Bautista vs Kelleher 

This should be a pretty solid fight. Bautista is coming off a decision win earlier this year. He is a high volume striker who likes to fight with a high pace. He has solid movement and likes to stay active in the Octagon. In his last fight he did show his ability to wrestle and had 4 take downs of his own, so keep that in mind. He does have suspect defense and does get hit with some big shots, so against Kelleher who has solid power, that could be an issue. Kelleher makes a quick turnaround after a quick submission loss just 3 months ago. He is a well rounded and very experienced fighter. He has solid striking with solid power in his hands. His grappling is an asset, and he does a good job at mixing that into his attack when it gives him the advantage. He fought at 145 for a stretch and has now moved to 135, which should allow him to be the bigger and more physical fighter in most of his fights, which could give him the advantage in the grappling in this fight. This should be a close fight, but I give the slight edge to Kelleher with the better power and grappling ability. I lean Kelleher at +130, but by no means am I ready to commit just yet. I will monitor these odds and see how they look on the weekend. 

Buys vs Durden 

Interesting fight here. Durden opened as the favorite, but since odds have shifted and Buys is sitting as the slight favorite. Buys is 0-2 since joining the UFC & is looking for his first win in the UFC. He is a solid wrestler and averages just over 2 take downs per 15 minutes. He is very tough and gritty, and that was very obvious in his first 2 UFC fights. He does have suspect take down defense & that could be an issue in this fight against a chain style wrestler like Durden. In comes Durden who is making a quick turnaround after a very quick loss back in March. He is 1-2-1 since joining the UFC. He is a chain style wrestler and he averages just over 4 take downs per fight, and I expect the same in this match up. His striking is just average, but he does a good job at using his big looping shots to close distance & set up his entries and take downs. If Durden can secure take downs early he should have a lot of success, but if Buys can defend the take downs, I think Durden's cardio will start to fade and Buys should start to take over. I have more faith in Durden's wrestling then I do Buys take down defense so I do lean Durden, but this is a coin flip fight in my opinion. I will most likely pass unless I see something later in the week. 

Paiva vs Morozov 

This should be a very exciting fight. Two guys who are not scared to exchange and get into a fire fight. Paiva is returning after a KO loss back in December. He is a well rounded fighter with a solid skill set. He isn't great anywhere but is solid everywhere. His striking is solid, and has a non stop style. He is very tough and gritty, and that is his best asset in my opinion. His ground game is solid, and he does offer some upside when fighting off his back, which he might need in this match up. Paiva has been involved in some wars and has absorbed a lot of damage so that is concerning, especially returning after his first KO loss of his career. In comes Morozov. He is 1-2 since joining the UFC. He is coming off a submission loss back in February, but looked solid in that fight until he got submitted. He is a solid striker with good volume and pressure. He has very nice counter punching, and does a good job at luring his opponent into a striking battle, and returning clean shots of his own. He does have solid wrestling/grappling and averages just over 3 take downs per fight. At times he does get a little too aggressive, and that cost him in his last fight, so keep that in mind. I think Morozov will come in with a solid game plan and his counter punching style will give Paiva a lot of issues. I like Morozov ML in this fight and I think he could find a finish against Paiva who has absorbed a lot of damage in a lot of his fights. I will see how these odds look closer to the weekend, but I will most likely back Morozov on the ML. 

Nuerdanbieke vs Brown 

Close fight here. Nuerdanbieke is 1-1 since joining the UFC. He is a strong and powerful fighter with solid grappling. He likes to use forward pressure and his powerful striking to close distance and work in cage control. He does a good job at using his strength and physicality to control his opponent against the cage and eventually work the fight to the ground. If he gets on top he does have solid control and offers solid ground & pound. In comes Brown who is riding a 2 fight win streak. He is a wrestler with solid striking. He likes to march forward and use his aggressive style to set up his grappling and take down attempts. He averages just under 5 take downs per fight, so it will be interesting to see who gets this fight to the ground first, and who has the better cardio and control to support a grapple heavy fight. Brown does have poor take down defense, so I give the edge to Nuerdanbieke in this fight and at +175 I like those odds. 

Ulberg vs Nchukwi 

Fun fight here. Ulberg is 1-1 since joining the UFC. He dominated his last fight earlier this year. He is a kick boxer, and a pretty good one at that. His striking is clean and he has solid volume. His striking differential is an impressive 9-4, which shows you all you need to know about his striking. He does have take downs if he needs them, and he went 2-2 in his last fight in that category. Nchukwi  is 2-2 since joining the UFC, and is coming off that late KO loss just 3 months ago, in a fight he was winning. He is a very good striking who has solid power in his hands. He is very effective when he finds his timing, and has solid movement. His take down defense is solid, and like Ulberg he does have take downs in his back pocket if he needs them. This should be a striker vs striker match up. I give Ulberg the technical advantage, but Nchukwi should be the more dangerous and powerful puncher. Odds have this dead even which I think is warranted, but I lean Ulberg as the more technical and active striker. 

Curtis vs Vieira 

Striker vs Grappler. Curtis is 2-0 since joining the UFC, both wins by KO. He is a very dangerous striker with real power in his hands. He does a good job at mixing in kicks into his attack and has solid movement and footwork. His take down defense has been tested in his first two UFC fights and has held up this far. It will be interesting to see how he handles the strength and physicality of Vieira, which I think will be the X factor in this fight. Vieira is 3-1 since joining the UFC, all of those fights have ended VIA submission. He is big for the division. He has very dangerous grappling and that is always his best asset. His striking has improved, so it will be interesting to see how he approaches this fight early. He has had cardio issues in the past, but in his last fight he showed improvements, and fought into the 3rd round and looked solid. The fact that Curtis take down has held up thus far has me leaning his way, but the strength and physicality of Vieira has me worried. I keep flip flopping on a side, but I do like the over 1.5 rounds at +120 as I think these fighters will be a little more reserved knowing how dangerous each guy is. I will wait until the weekend and see how the odds look like before picking a side. 

Hey paletta, Buys is in the middle of a nasty divorce with his ufc wife. He is accusing her of having an affair with fellow ufc fighter dolidze.

Wondering what buys mindset is going to be going into this fight? I was leaning durden because of outside the cage issues with buys, what do you think?

i like that over 1.5 in Vieira-Curtis

Curtis is usually a slow starter anyway and Vieira needs to watch his cardio

@brew82

I read about it. I don’t put any stock into it as I think you could make the argument for both sides. Motivation or the opposite. 

I lean Durden, but I will most likely pass on this fight, unless I see something later in the week. 

@BigMick87

I agree. At + money I think the over 1.5 is a good play. 

I really want too take a side in that fight but I keep flip flopping. I’ll see how the market looks on the weekend and make a final call 

GL this weekend my friend, stay hot!

@The_Fist

@UglyKidJoe

Nurmagomedov vs Maness 

Intriguing match up here. Nurmagomedov returns after a quick finish back in March & is making a quick turnaround. He is 2-0 since joining the UFC & 14-0 overall in his career. He is a dominate wrestler who has a complete set of skills. His wrestling is his best asset but his striking is solid and improving and his kicks are a real threat. He uses kicks nicely to manage range and eventually work in his clean and very effective take down attempts. Once he gets you down he has very heavy top pressure and is very hard to escape from. Maness is 3-0 in the UFC and will have his hands full in this match up. He is a well rounded fighter who is big for the division. He has solid striking with good power in his hands. He does a good job at mixing in kicks into his attack. His take down defense held up nicely in his last fight, and I'm sure that will be tested again in this fight. He is very gritty and durable, and making this fight ugly early could be his way to find success, but that will be a tall task against the highly skilled Nurmagomedov. This will be both fighters toughest test so far in the UFC, so I expect a measured approach from both fighters. I think Nurmagomedov get's the job done here, but I do think he will have his hands full against the bigger fighter and the very tough Maness. I lean over 2.5 rounds at even money, but I will wait until the weekend to make a final decision. 

Moises vs Giagos 

Two guys who are looking to get back on track with a win. Moises is 0-2 in his last 2, both losses VIA stoppage. He is a grappler with solid BJJ. He does have technical striking with solid kicks that he mixes into his attack nicely. He is an experienced fighter with a good set of skills, but in his last 2 losses he did not look good, so that is worrisome if your looking to back him here. In comes Giagos. He is 2-1 in his last 3. He is a grappler who likes to fight with a good pace, and likes to put pressure onto his opponent. His striking is average, but he moves well on his feet and will never stop pushing the pace. He is very tough and is never out of a fight, but his defense is poor and does put himself into harms way more often then not. Odds have Moises as a -250 favorite which is surprising, especially after his last 2 performances. He will for sure be the more technical and skilled fighter, but these odds are wide in my opinion. I don't have a read on this fight so I will pass for now, unless I see something later in the week. 

Parisian vs Baudot 

First and only heavyweight fight of the night. Parisian is 1-2 since joining the UFC. He is a high output striker who uses his volume as an asset. He likes to march forward and stay in the face of his opponent and keep the pressure on. He has shown the ability to take down his opponent if the opportunity presents itself, so that is another asset for him in this fight. He does tend to fade as the fight goes on because of his high volume, so it will be interesting to see how this fight unfolds. Baudot is looking for his first UFC win. He is a creative striker who tends to throw all sorts of punches. He does have solid power, but he is not the most technical striker and tends to get sloppy in his attacks. His take down defense is OK, but if he does get taken down, he is at a clear disadvantage. I lean Parisian as the slight underdog, but I don't feel strong about either side in this match up. 

Magny vs Rakhmonov 

Co main event, and this should be a fun one. Magny is riding a 2 fight win streak and is coming off a close decision win back in March. He is an experienced and very well rounded fighter. His is a busy striker who likes to apply pressure onto his opponent. His grappling and clinch work is very good and he likes to mix in knees and elbows at close range. He does average 3 take downs per fight, but in his last fight had very little success in that area & went 1-9 on his take down attempts. Experience will be on his side, but he has slowed down lately, and even in his last 2 wins, he didn't look great. In comes Rakhmonov who is 15-0 overall and 3-0 since joining the UFC. He is the real deal. He is a complete fighter who is good just about everywhere. He is a very active fighter in his attack, whether its on the feet or on the ground. He has very solid movement and he makes it hard for his opponent to get a solid read on him. He does carry solid power in his hands, and is always a threat for the submission on the ground. Rakhmonov is the clear favorite for good reason, I just cant pin point how to bet him just yet. Submission/Decision double chance bet at +110 seems solid, but I will wait until fight night to make a final decision on this fight. 

Tsarukyan vs Gamrot 

Main event, and like the co-main this should be another really fun fight. Tsarukyan is riding a 5 fight win streak and is 5-1 in the UFC overall. He is coming of an impressive stoppage win back in February. He is an elite wrestler who has very good movement on his feet which helps set up his clean take down attempts. He has good control if he gets on top and does a good job at working threw positions. His striking is solid and he has shown improvements in all of his recent fights. He has very nice kicks and does a good job at mixing those kicks into combinations with his striking. He is a very explosive and athletic fighter and is a legitimate prospect for the division. Gamrot is 3-0 in his last 3 & 3-1 overall in the UFC, with his only loss being a close split decision back in 2020. He is also a wrestler, and a non stop wrestler at that. He is relentless in his pursuit of the take down, and has very good control if he gets you down. His striking is very solid and he has a creative striking style. He likes too use volume strikes to keep his opponent off balance and backing up, which opens up his take down ability. He is quick and moves well on the feet. Odds have Tsarukyan as a -250 which surprised me when I first seen those odds. I do give him the slight edge in this fight, but Gamrot is no slouch and these guys are very similar in terms of skill set. I like the value with Gamrot, but these odds are very odd in my opinion. I will wait until Saturday morning and see how odds look after the late money comes into the market.