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10:10 EST - Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks

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'10-11 NBA:  90-67  (57.3%)  +19.90u
'10-11 NBA-P:  30-16  (65.2%)  +18.25u
'10-11 NCAAB:  8-1  (88.9%)  +7.90u
'10-11 NHL-P:  11-4  (73.3%)  +7.00u
'10-11 MLB:  97-66  (59.8%)  +31.61u
'10-11 MLB-P:  9-3  (75.0%)  +9.22u
'11-12 NCAAF:  16-21  (43.2%)  -7.40u
'11-12 NCAAF-P:  9-6  (60.0%)  +1.65u
'11-12 NFL:  42-35-1  (54.5%)  +5.05u
'11-12 NFL-P:  5-5  (50.0%)  -0.40u
'11-12 NCAAB:  9-3  (75.0%)  +5.70u
'11-12 NCAAB-P:  5-3  (62.5%)  +1.60u
'11-12 NBA:  77-80 (49.0%)  -13.28u
'11-12 NBA-P:  23-20-1 (53.2%)  +2.20u
'11-12 NHL-P:  2-1 (66.6%)  +1.10u

'11-12 MLB:  40-20-1 (66.6%)  +16.15u



 
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Posted: #2

10:10 EST - Arizona Diamondbacks -1 (-145)

I saw a lot of middle favorites on the card today (favorites between -130 and -170) and that's something to be weary of.  After a week full of chalky wins, today's card seemed like one giant money sink hole.  Despite leans on BOS, NYY, DET, STL I passed on all of them and I'm playing what looks like the best play on the board.  We all know the Cubs are bad, but how bad are they really?  They're last in the MLB in terms of record because they rank #27 in runs and #22 in runs allowed.  Basically bad offense behind bad pitching - yuck.  Tonight, they go on the road to face one of the leagues hottest offenses in one of the most hitter friendly parks in the big leagues.  Arizona ranks #6 in total offense and #1 in power over the last 7 games.  And who are the Cubs putting on the mound to cool off Arizona's hot bats?  Paul Maholm - basically the definition of mediocrity in a pitcher.  Paul ranks #130 with sub-par advanced numbers across the board.  He does nothing well, but he's doesn't do anything really bad either.  He's a lefty and the D-Backs have done very well against south-paws on the season ranked #6 in total offense.  We all know what Ian Kennedy is capable of, and while he hasn't had a stellar season his advanced numbers indicate some positive regression.  I expect he'll improve throughout the season and even though this isn't exactly a discounted price to back him, I still see a good opportunity to profit.  My model has the Diamondbacks winning 68.7% of the time translating to a true line of -220.  With their hot offense, in their park against captain mediocrity and the last placed Cubs bullpen I like my chances that they can win with some insurance.  -145 is a decent price to fade the Cubs on the road against a good team and good pitcher.

 
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Posted: #3
We know by now that the cubs are not a good road team, What is up with the AZ bullpen middle and closer they have the advantage there?
 
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Posted: #4
Did you see the Ump why not just take the Over
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by veto22:

Did you see the Ump why not just take the Over

My model has this game at 9.09 runs.  Doesn't matter who the ump is, not enough value on the over when the Cubs offense is on the field.
 
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Posted: #6

Those -1 or +1 bets are for bettors who are scared.

If they were the winning formula,they wouldn't offer them.

 
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Posted: #7
Thanks for the write up. Think I will play the RL though.
 
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Posted: #8

Might add that when you have a big mismatch to end the day,it doesn't fare well for the favorite.

Bettors choices are either pick from a shitfest between SEA and S.D. 

Or bet against the worst team in MLB

Who do you think bettors will choose ????

Bettors are in chaser mode at this time of night

Winners aren't betting this crap

 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by KingScorpio:

Might add that when you have a big mismatch to end the day,it doesn't fare well for the favorite.

Bettors choices are either pick from a shitfest between SEA and S.D. 

Or bet against the worst team in MLB

Who do you think bettors will choose ????

Bettors are in chaser mode at this time of night

Winners aren't betting this crap


Think about what you're saying.  West coast heavy favorites are less likely to win than east coast heavy favorites because the games are played at the end of the night?  C'mon.  You're making things harder on yourself.  Sometimes the obvious play is the right one.  
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by veto22:

We know by now that the cubs are not a good road team, What is up with the AZ bullpen middle and closer they have the advantage there?

I rank Arizona's bullpen #12 and Chicago's bullpen #30 so yeah they have a rather sizable advantage in the late innings.
 
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Posted: #11
Parlay the ML DIAMONDBackS with the ML Padres and you have a late night WINNER.
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by heyjohnny:

Parlay the ML DIAMONDBackS with the ML Padres and you have a late night WINNER.

Ballsy. Good luck with the Pads  
 
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Posted: #13
Good luck si1ly!
 
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Posted: #14

7 out of the 9 hitters (including Kennedy) are right handed for Arizona.


Paul Maholm is ranked #156 against righties.  
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by heyjohnny:

Parlay the ML DIAMONDBackS with the ML Padres and you have a late night WINNER.

toss in some afl - san jose ml...
 
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Posted: #16
with ya brotha go dbacks
 
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Posted: #17
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:


Think about what you're saying.  West coast heavy favorites are less likely to win than east coast heavy favorites because the games are played at the end of the night?  C'mon.  You're making things harder on yourself.  Sometimes the obvious play is the right one.  

 

I think what KingScorpio is saying is that todays winning cappers have already made their money and called it a night and the action on the late games are from gamblers chasing todays losses.

 
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Posted: #19
i'm with it took the Dbacks -1.5 for 3 units.

Good Luck
 
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Posted: #20
Fact:  One team will win tonight's game by a certain margin and the total will reach a certain number.
 
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Posted: #21
lot of two out base runners squandered 
 
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Posted: #22

DBacks leave 2nd and 3rd in the 1st and bases juiced in 2nd.....and all because a good play by Soriano

Now a leadoff double...

I dont remember who posted it...but someone started a thread on here that whenever a team leaves the bases load, the following half inning the other team scores like 75% of the time

 
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Posted: #23
Honestly I don't think ARZ against the Cubs should have this kind of line... The D-backs just aren't that good. I'm on the Cubbies on this one.
 
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Posted: #24
Ian doesn't look too good at all. 
 
 
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