⚾️ 👉 FUBAH2's "Mystery angle" thread

 I will be tracking (here) a curious angle I found in reviewing my capping stats.
It's simple enough: better starters and better offense = winners.  But the actual
methodology I use to determine the specific plays is VERY complex and probably
not at all like the way you do it.  So this angle is unique to my capping method. 

In just 9 days so far,  it would have gone an impressive  32 - 10

This "Mystery angle" breaks down thusly:

12 - 3   Heavy ML FAVS of -170 or more
13 - 5   All other FAVS up to -165
 7 - 2    ML Dogs

Like many of you I immediately thought this might well just be short-term
randomness, and moreover, most likely to regress toward a mean, sooner or later.
I agree!  No way it stays at 76% winners!  It has to regress some at least.

But the question is: will it regress slightly, or by a whole lot and become worthless.

So I will track this angle in this same thread daily and we'll watch and see.
If it regresses too much, I'll stop.  

** My real bets are posted in a separate thread.

I had a losing day on Saturday, which prompted me to review my methods.
Had I known about this before Saturday, the "Mystery angle" pointed to these:
Twins, Tigers, WhiteSox, Astros, Mariners, and Dodgers.  Only one loser!

Here are the indicated "Mystery Angle" plays for Sunday, May 16:
   BlueJays
   RedSox
   WhiteSox
   Tigers
   D'Backs


Hope you enjoy a good Sunday!

Interesting. Thanks for sharing. 

And thank YOU.

It will be interesting to see how that angle plays out over the next week.

If it can win at least 67% of the time (win 2, lose 1) then it's still profitable!

Of course dogs are profitable even going 50%....and so far the dogs are  7 - 1 

But, that is likely to regress some.

The Tigers are a dog that is indicated today and D'backs may be a dog as well.

Ok, so  3 - 2 +0.50 units  on the "Mystery angle" for day 1 of tracking

I will keep two counts here in this same thread, each day:

1/  the NEW tracking count that began today (3 - 2 +0.50 units)

2/  and then add those to my overall count that was 32 - 10 (now 35 - 12)

Fubah2's  "Mystery angle"  overall count:

12 - 3    Heavy ML FAVS of -170 or more
16 - 6    All other FAVS up to -165
 7 - 3     ML Dogs

I'm bushed, so I may not have Monday's angle plays up until noon, Monday

and I will add them to this same thread

Tough luck with the Barnes implosion vs LAA. Nice rally by CWS.  I had AZ losing 3-0 vs Washington.

GL

Wait WAit WAIT.....

“Here are the indicated "Mystery Angle" plays for Sunday, May 16:
   BlueJays W
   RedSox L
   WhiteSox W
   Tigers L
   D'Backs L”
=
2-3 not 3-2, and Red Sox were about a 165 favorite. Not being a dick, but correcting something you probably should have had right.

Good luck today 

  Big  THANK YOU  to Luckydan and aaironworks for pointing out an error. 

I wrongly counted the D'Backs a win because I had the Nats/D'Backs score reversed! grrrr

Thanks guys for following and helping me keep this tracking accurate!  

That means the result for the first day of tracking was actually  2 - 3  -1.60 units

So the "regression toward a mean" as I predicted above, has begun.......question is: by how much

The corrected  "Mystery angle" overall is now 34-13:

          12 - 3    Heavy ML FAVS of -170 or more
          15 - 7    All other FAVS up to -165
            7 - 3    ML Dogs

Here are the indicated "Mystery Angle" plays for Monday, May 17:

(always using overnight lines from Bet365)
          Reds   -135
          Angels -140
          Mariners -160

Could be a more pending wind and lines updates
Hope you enjoy a good Monday!

Get em today ! 

Why does the mystery angle have to be a mystery?  enlighten us on the angle 

Added "Mystery angle" plays since new lines released at Bet365:

           Dodgers  -220
           Padres   -210

A fair question.

It's baked into the unique and complex method I use to determine the strength of a starting pitcher plus the complicated way I determine the most likely number of runs each team's offense will score.  I am very consistent in these methods (though not always a winner!) and it involves a fair amount of "subectivity."  It's actually quite tedious. Takes me a solid 2 - 3 hrs each night and maybe 6 hours stat keeping to begin each new series.  There's just no way I could explain all this.

But they are ALL HOME TEAMS for one.

And the qualifying teams have no worse than equality on the mound and at the plate, but must me stronger at one of those.

After that, HOW I determine each is the really tricky part.  UNFORTUNATELY it is not as simple as going to MLB website and choosing home teams with a higher RPG and a starter with a better ERA.   NO, no, no!    Waaaaaaay more involved - and rules out some games I think would qualify and rules IN some matchups I thought would NOT qualify.  And yet I am consistent in the way I do it.  I was shocked to see that 32 - 10 figure when I reviewed my 9 days of stats.  Just jumped out at me.

BUT.......I expect some regression toward the mean for sure.....

Still it might remain profitable, and if it does, I hope it helps out some folks a bit -- even if it only helps to confirm a pick you made.

I will tell ya that picking favs such as the dodgers and padres at -220 and -210  on the regular, will lead you to the poor house..but bol 

True.... heavy favs are  -  on a regular basis  - is a fast track to loserville.

Need to be selective.

The "angle" though does NOT necessarily represent my actual bets.

For example, yesterday the "angle" indicated WhiteSox but my personal capping passed on it. naturally it won)

The angle is merely a curiosity that appears in my stats, and worthy of at least a tracking experiment to see whether it is just random or a true angle.

After losing 2 - 3 for -1.60 units Sunday,

this angle went 3 - 2 for +0.05 units Monday

  2 days Tracking:  5 - 5 for -1.55 units net

  Overall, the "Mystery Angle"  is now 37-15:

          14 - 3    Heavy ML FAVS of -170 or higher 
          16 - 9    All other FAVS up to -165
            7 - 3    ML Dogs

=====================================

  "Mystery Angle"  for Tuesday, May 18:

(always using overnight lines from Bet365)
          Cardinals -130
          Rangers  +145
          Padres   -210
          Mariners -120
          Dodgers  no line yet

Possibly more pending lines updates
Hope you enjoy a good Tuesday!

Dodgers line I will use (above) is -240

Added "angle" play:  Braves -155

nicely done$tud

Will use -310 for Dodgers line

This angle went 3 - 3 for  -0.50 units Wednesday

  4 days Tracking:  11 - 11 for -2.80 units net  

  Overall, the "Mystery Angle"  is now 43 - 21:

        19 - 3     Heavy ML FAVS of -170 or higher 
         17 - 13      All other FAVS up to -165 
             7 - 5            ML Dogs 

=====================================

  "Mystery Angle"  for Thursday, May 20:

         (lines from Bet365)

              Reds   -150
              Angels +105 game 2
             

Maybe Dodgers later, pending pitching matchup

This angle went 0 - 2 for  -2.50 units Thursday

  5 days Tracking:  11 - 13 for -5.30 units net  

  Overall, the "Mystery Angle"  is now 43 - 23:

        19 - 3     Heavy ML FAVS of -170 or higher 
         17 - 14      All other FAVS up to -165 
             7 - 6            ML Dogs 

  "Mystery Angle"  for Friday, May 21:

         (lines from Bet365)

         Royals   -160
         Giants   +115
         Padres  -225 *

*Note: the angle has regressed since tracking began Sunday.
  BUT....heavy favs* have added 6 wins vs 0 losses to reach 19 - 3 overall.