⚾️ 👉 FUBAH2's "Mystery angle" thread

This angle took a rare loss on Tuesday.

There are no qualifying plays for Wednesday.

The "Mystery Angle" identifies one early game on Thursday:

YANKEES -185

Personally that's too rich for me given what I have determined to be only a small edge over the Royals.

I'll look for better betting opportunities on the evening card.

BOL to you all today 

Winner

No further plays for Thursday.

Winner

No further plays for Thursday.

?? There were no plays Friday due to my main computer issues.

The "Mystery Angle" indicates 5 for Saturday, June 26:
Anything less than 4 - 1 is a losing day, and that could very well happen.

WHITESOX -190
BLUEJAYS -285
BREWERS -200
DODGERS -195
PADRES  -275

* I don't know yet if I will actually bet any of these.   Maybe.
In every case, the team has an edge on the mound and offensively.
But a lot of teams with those edges still manage to lose.

BoL today with your bets!

@fubah2

 I believe there is a tasty parlay in your posts. Thank you!  

padres seem to be the "safest" of the heavy faves

arizona struggling and the padres pitcher has good numbers vs them

I tend to stay away from the heavy juice favs but gl 

@fubah2

 Hope the weather holds. Rain is in the forecast for Chicago, Milwaukee, and Toronto.

Just a quick question, does starting pitchers matter in your ‘Mystery Angle’? Or it’s a play no matter what happens even if pitcher changes.. thanks..

Listed pitchers at the time of my post.

I just woke up, so has something changed?! 

Also, when I began this thread, it was a result from looking back at my capping notes and I noticed that heavy HOME favorites (at least -170) were winning at an much stronger than expected rate, PROVIDED:

-  HOME starter had stats that I judged to be no worse than his opponent, and neither on any "long streak," and

-  HOME TEAM had offensive run scoring at least at least as good (specific to home/road venue, and provided not in a batting slump, though opponent could be)

- BUT significantly better in at least one of the two above.

Sometimes, my capping makes all that a very close call and those I do not post.

That said, I see this morning that TWINS -180 will now be included

Agreed. Me too!

However, as KEYelement has repeated in this forum (others too, probably!) that it comes down to assessing the return based on the probability it will occur.  For example, we might like a -175 favorite *IF* we judge they have at least a 2 to 1 chance of winning.  But as I am sure you know, *usually* the line on heavy favorites rises (squares betting??) or is set at above its anticipated true value. So as you allude to, caution is always in order with heavy favs.  That's why I don't necessarily bet any of these angle plays I post in this thread. 

On a similar note, typically if my capping indicates any close call but still leans to a pick (of any value) I just PASS.   I used to think that if I just bet on all my "leans" that I should still come out ahead over time.  But losing is a hard teacher. LOL

Hmmmm.............well...........maybe.  That's a lot of chalk though. I would double-check the pre-game lineups to be certain there are no "surprises" before making a bet at those odds. 

@fubah2

 Twins PPD.

@fubah2

Haha, nothing changed. I’m just checking and confirming for future bets. Anyway, really thankful for all your thoughts and picks here. Really helped me a lot 

@fubah2

 yup would never play it alone, got it on a parlay with another pick i like

This "select heavy home favs" angle went 3 - 1 for a tiny +0.25 units net

Since I altered my ML sides capping method on June 14:
2 - 0  June 14
2 - 0  June 15
2 - 0  June 16
2 - 0  June 17
2 - 0  June 18
1 - 0  June 19
 xxx   June 20
 xxx   June 21
0 - 1  June 22 (NYY -275)
 xxx   June 23
1 - 0  June 24
 xxx   June 25
3 - 1  June 26 (+0.25 net)

=  15 - 2   and  +12.50 units net in 13 days

42 days tracking here: 54 - 15  for +22.50 units net

"Mystery Angle" YTD: 67 - 18 (*mean average price is -207)

Proceed at your own risk. Be cautious with the price of heavy favs.
As the wins rise on ANY streak, such as this one  (or a starter's
long string of consecutive games without a truly BAD outing)
so too rises an ever increasing probability of a "correction" (losing day, or two!)
Some regression is inevitable, sooner or later. I cannot emphasize this enough. 
This angle could be slowing down now.  Be careful.  Choose wisely!

BoL with your Sunday bets! 

The "Mystery Angle" indicates these for Sunday, June 27:

      BLUEJAYS -225 (Bet365)

      BREWERS -185 (BetCRIS)

      PADRES -260  (Bet365)

NOTE: all 3 have both the edge on the mound and offensively

I'm waiting to see the pregame lineups before I actually bet such high prices

BoL to y'all

@fubah2

 Nice sweep! Thanks! 

3 - 0 Sunday = 18 - 2   for +15.50 units net in 14 days

43 days posted/tracking here: 57 - 15  for +25.50 units net

"Mystery Angle" YTD:  70 - 18  (*mean average price is -207)

Proceed at your own risk. Be cautious with the price of heavy favs.
As the wins rise on ANY streak, such as this streak (or a starter's
long string of consecutive games without a truly BAD outing)
so too rises an ever increasing probability of a "correction" (losing day, or 2, or 3!)
Some regression is inevitable, sooner or later. I cannot emphasize this enough.
Choose wisely!

The "Mystery Angle" for Monday, indicates only one qualifier:

        ASTROS -330

Astros lost on Monday.

The Mystery Angle has identified these for Tuesday (based on overnight lines):

REDSOX  -180
INDIANS  -180
ATHLETICS -180
ROCKIES  -170
BLUEJAYS -192
ASTROS ??? line later

These do not necessarily represent MY BETS.

I post my actual bets in a separate thread.

Some regression is inevitable, sooner or later.
I cannot emphasize this enough.
Choose wisely!

Line used for ASTROS will be -300

And that is for Urquidy/Lakins