⚾️ 👉 FUBAH2's "Mystery angle" thread

This angle went 1 - 2 for  -0.60 units Friday

  6 days Tracking:  12 - 14 for -5.90 units net  

  Overall, the "Mystery Angle"  is now 44 - 25:

        20 - 3     Heavy ML FAVS of -170 or higher 
         17 - 15      All other FAVS up to -165 
             7 - 7            ML Dogs 

As expected, this angle regressed, and more than I had hoped, so I will stop tracking the complete angle.  However you can see above that the  heavy favs of -170 and up (mean average is -210) have hit 20 wins against only 3 losses since May 7.

It was 13-3 to begin my trackiing here on Sunday but added 7 straight winners since!  So that portion of the angle has not begun a regression yet, though I expect it will sooner or later.  But again the question remains how much will it regress: a little, or a lot.

So I will keep posting the "Mystery Angle" plays on any heavy home favs that qualify.

Saturday's angle plays so far:

Yankees -200

Indians -170

Padres again,    but no overnight line available just yet

Braves -200

Four more winners.  That makes 11 straight since I began tracking last Sunday.

I repeat what I stated (above) from the start,  good numbers like this "Mystery Angle"

will *ALWAYS* regress toward a mean.  The question is not only WHEN this

will occur (it's inevitable, sooner or later) but by HOW MUCH:  a little?  or a lot?

Have to wait and see,  but  losses should be coming soon.

  7 days Tracking:  11 - 0     for +11.00 units net 

  "Mystery Angle"  (heavy ML FAVS of -170 or higher)   24 - 3    

Nice 

Mystery Angle picks for Sunday:

BlueJays -170

Padres   line not available at Bet365 yet but -250 seems likely

The line I will use for the Padres pick is  -275

Jesus Christ, betting 275 favorites? Even -170 Jays. Lose -70$ Just bc Padres won (winning) And if they lose you get royally anally stuffed 

Not me! 

My actual bets are posted in a separate thread daily.

Above is merely tracking a curious angle that's been hitting reasonably well. 

"Mystery Angle" picks for Sunday:

L      BlueJays  -170
W     Padres   -275

8 days tracking:    12 - 1    for +10.30 units net

"Mystery Angle"  YTD:   25 - 4
(mean average price is -210)

As written above, we must expect a regression toward the mean,

as GOOD numbers never last forever!

There are no picks indicated for Monday.

"Mystery Angle" is  tracking  these for Tuesday:

             Nats -180
             Mets -250
             Rays -175
             A's   -170
             Twins -200

  *Note: I do NOT necessarily bet any of these!  I post my real bets in a separate thread.

Probably better (as a bettor) to see how the heavy favorites do when giving up 1.5 runs, and severely limiting your risk in the process.

Interesting thought.   I shall review my stats and see!

Thanks

5 heavy favs....thats not a mystery angle, that's a recipe for financial loss and/or a need for pesto bismol

Okay finished my review. 

Yours' is an excellent point worth checking.

Upon further review, I found 10 winners that won by only 1 run and 19 that won by 2+

The -1.5 runlines for home favs in this range are more or less around -110.

Suggesting a RL profit of about +8.0 net units.

Whereas a record of 25 - 4 at average of -210 yields about +16.0 net units.

So you are right, that RL does limit exposure.

But it also limits the profits  -- on an angle that appears to be winning.

 2 - 3 on Tuesday

  10 days tracking:     14 - 4    for +7.55 units net

"Mystery Angle"  YTD:    27 - 7  (*mean average price is -210)

As written above, we must expect a regression toward the mean,  as GOOD numbers never last forever!

"Mystery Angle" is  tracking  these for Wednesday:

             Twins   -200
             WhiteSox -200
             Rays   -220
             A's     -170

3 - 1 on Wednesday

  11 days tracking:     17 - 5    for +8.55 units net

"Mystery Angle"  YTD:    30 - 8  (*mean average price is -210)

As written above, we must expect a regression toward the mean,  as GOOD numbers never last forever!

The "Mystery Angle" identifies these games for tracking on Thursday:

Rays -175

WhiteSox -220    (though this may be rained out)

3 - 1 on Wednesday

2 - 0 on Thursday

  12 days tracking here:  19 - 5    for +10.55 units net

"Mystery Angle"  YTD:    32 - 8   (*mean average price is -210)

When I began tracking this on Sunday May 16, my capping notes showed 13 - 3 for this angle.

Since then, as posted here, it has stayed strong and  went an additional 19 - 5

While one should still expect *some* regression has to be inevitable, sooner or later,

the questions are WHEN    and    by HOW MUCH.

Yours' is an excellent point worth checking.

Upon review, I found 10 winners that won by only 1 run and 19 that won by 2+

The -1.5 runlines for home favs in this range are more or less around -110.

Suggesting a RL profit of about +8.0 net units.

Whereas a record of 25 - 4 at average of -210 yields about +16.0 net units.

F U B U 

For Us By Us

The "Mystery Angle" identifies these games for tracking on Friday:

WhiteSox 220

Dodgers -220

Friday the WhiteSox was rained out and the Dodgers lost.

  13 days tracking here:  19 - 6    for +8.35 units net

"Mystery Angle"  YTD:    32 - 9   (*mean average price is -210)

When I began tracking this on Sunday May 16, my capping notes showed 13 - 3 for this angle.

Since then, as posted here, it has stayed strong and  went an additional 19 - 6

While one should still expect *some* regression has to be inevitable, sooner or later,

the questions are WHEN    and    by HOW MUCH.

"Mystery Angle" indicates these home favs for Saturday, May 29:

                 WHITESOX  -220 g1 (Harvey/Keuchel)
             DODGERS  -190

                 ...and maybe CWS g2 depending on lineup changes

*NOTE:  I do NOT necessarily bet on these which I am tracking here.
  Heavy chalk recommends caution.

BTW,   normally WhiteSox would have been an angle pick for game 2 as well,

but I back off of it because LYNN is on a " 8 game consecutive STREAK ALERT" and

due sooner or later for a BAD outing.  Don't know when of course, but I lose nothing

by waiting until *after* he has the inevitable BAD outing and then resume

backing his starts where warranted.  He is a fine pitcher!

So just the two Mystery Angle plays today:  WhiteSox g1 (winner) and Dodgers this evening.

1 - 1 -0.90 units Saturday

  13 days tracking here:  20 - 7    for +7.45 units net

"Mystery Angle"  YTD:    33 - 10   (*mean average price is -210)

"Mystery Angle" indicates these home favs for Sunday, May 30:

                    WHITESOX  -215