🔥🥳 185 - 117 ... +1034.40u .....+68 more wins than losses!

@Hoyasaxa

Interesting.  Homies only a weak 53%.  Even worse than hockey!

DODGERS are only 35 - 20 this season as a HEAVY FAV (-170+)

...losing big time on the juice!!

which included  SUPER Heavy losses:

-422   April 15, home v Nats

-311   May 16, home v Reds

-318   May 22, home v Dbacks

-350   May 31, home v Rockies

JULY 05: There are no starter HOT STREAKS today

Considering throwing some money on MARINERS......

@fubah2

 did you ?

@fubah2

 Much obliged by the thoughts you bring and the frugal ways of “no action for the day” is the way most days should be… especially during these Dog days of summer, and in Bases . Top Shelf Fubah, keep teaching lessons  

wolfeman 

But you haven’t t really placed any bets in weeks..what’s up pal? I wish we jumped on the over hyped weak home favs in the big towns NYY and LA.. tremendous value 

@Hoyasaxa

Dodgers squeaked by last night  but they are an enigma. Today the lines are suggesting only a tossup at home to Milwaukee   What say you, fubah2?  A good value pick?

Thank you!

Just getting underway now after a long night into the wee hours.  I'll take a look...

@Zeus4par

Just my humble opinion but this one does indeed look like a coin-flipper.  I make the team batting - as they are playing these days - to be about dead even.  Peralta, I rate  9 - 6 - 2  in his games (the 6 is BAD outings) compares with Paxton, I rate 8 - 5 - 2 in his games (the 5 being BAD outings)......so that's a virtual wash there too.  And I rate the pens more or less even as well. Their team play recently has been up and down for both teams with neither on a good or bad streak.

No edges/value that I see unless the pregame lineups later reveal key batters OUT...

PASS

BoL with your bets today!

Yeah, but very small....just a 1/3 unit, as it looked reasonably OK but certainly not great enough to be worthy of posting as a full bet. 

I'm up over 51+ units on the season but still feel highly skittish about looming regression wiping out a significant portion of my profits My personal history over many years in the same position makes me nervous because each and every time I reached an impressive peak, I then went on a prolonged mix of bets which lost far more than I won.   EVERY freakin time!!

With experience grows wisdom:

"You gotta know when to hold'em,

       Know when to fold'em,

    Know when to walk away,

      And know when to run...."

Maybe fubah you could track the bets you would normally make on paper for a few weeks and see how they do. From there, decide on whether to post plays or still stay in the dugout.

Phillies at Braves

Lefty SUAREZ, began the season on a poor outing, but then rattled off 9 consecutive without a BAD outing (most were very good!)....then one BAD outing.....then another streak of 5 good outings.....then his last one was a BAD outing.
Only 3 "BAD" outings from 17 starts (and one of those 3 was a close call!)  Coming off a BAD outing I have to think he won't have a second consecutive.

Of course even so that would NOT guarantee the Phillies win. If their bats go cold or if their BP implodes after SUAREZ departs, they could just as easily lose.

But ....Schwellenbach isn't exactly lighting the league on fire.
Schwellenbach 2 - 4  (Good/mediocre outings   vs BAD)
compares with,
Suarez (Phillies) 14 - 3 (Good/mediocre outings   vs BAD)

Meanwhile,
Phillies seem to have regained their good play recently 4 - 1 v. Braves 1 - 4....and are hitting well! Especially against righty starters.
BRAVES are mediocre against lefties overall, let alone GOOD ones, and their bats are running cold recently with just 31 runs their last 10 games. Phillies have scored 43 in the same stretch!

Schwellenbach is NOT a GOOD starter (yet), although who knows what may happen.

Leaning  Phillies ...

That hot streak for HEAVY HOME FAVS is basically over. (-170 and up)

First 5 days of July,  7 - 8   -8.54u

Thank you!

@fubah2

Thanks! That convinces me.    Phillies -105 for 1.5 units

@fubah2

I understand. At least, this is personal adapting to trend and/or history. Only risking missing value while avoiding losses. I truly understand this personal wisdom approach ;) (Is this kinda tilt avoidance strategy ?)

You could also put aside part of this gains and get back to standard betting with a resetted bankroll. Anyway great insight here. I just love your share of warnings, thoughts and analysis. Great contribution.

How about today? 

Sat, JULY 06: There are/were NO starter HOT STREAKS today 

i dont know bud     with harper out i like the braves -125 (in rain delay)

best to just avoid them altogether  

Quote Originally Posted by WhiteRabb1t:

@fubah2     Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by WhiteRabb1t: @fubah2  did you ? Yeah, but very small....just a 1/3 unit, as it looked reasonably OK but certainly not great enough to be worthy of posting as a full bet.  I'm up over 51+ units on the season but still feel highly skittish about looming regression wiping out a significant portion of my profits My personal history over many years in the same position makes me nervous because each and every time I reached an impressive peak, I then went on a prolonged mix of bets which lost far more than I won.   EVERY freakin time!!  With experience grows wisdom:

  "You gotta know when to hold'em,

         Know when to fold'em,

      Know when to walk away,

      And know when to run...."

 

 

I truly understand this personal wisdom approach. You could also put aside part of this gains and get back to standard betting with a resetted bankroll. Anyway great insight here. I just love your share of warnings, thoughts and analysis. Great contribution.

@WhiteRabb1t

THANKS for the compliment! ....and thanks for sharing your thoughts  

Yes, I have though about pulling out all my profits and just continuing with a much smaller BR.  That way my profits are safe, true..... but that doesn't halt the impending losses from regression -  likely to wipe out that reduced BR.  Either way, I lose.  But what I am doing is still betting but very small - like fractions of a unit... And it has been a mixed bag the past few weeks, losing a little on a handful of bets. No point posting them if I am not confident I would post more winners than losers.  Doesn't help anyone. I'll keep tracking my bets privately until I am more confident in the results.

BoL with your bets this weekend!