@WhiteRabb1t
@Zeus4par
@BlackwaterOP
@wolfeman3
@Hoyasaxa
@KellyM_1964
Thanks for sharing your thoughts fellas!
WARNING! Streaker Alert!
This STARTER is riding a tenuous 7-game HOT STREAK,
WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET!
...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!!
KIRBY, Mariners
WARNING! Streaker Alert!
This STARTER is riding a tenuous 7-game HOT STREAK,
WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET!
...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!!
KIRBY, Mariners
True. i was more on sharing some thoughts and advice (no complaining about no bets indeed ;))
Reducing BR is a good leveraging method to fight "fear of losses". But if it's not that, no matter.
Reducing wagers is a good method too :)
The thing is to never lower the effort on analysis and skills and value
True. i was more on sharing some thoughts and advice (no complaining about no bets indeed ;))
Reducing BR is a good leveraging method to fight "fear of losses". But if it's not that, no matter.
Reducing wagers is a good method too :)
The thing is to never lower the effort on analysis and skills and value
DODGERS are only 35 - 20 this season as a HEAVY FAV (-170+)
...losing big time on the juice!!
which included SUPER Heavy losses:
-422 April 15, home v Nats
-311 May 16, home v Reds
-318 May 22, home v Dbacks
-350 May 31, home v Rockies
So they screw the pooch again Sunday
DODGERS are only 35 - 20 this season as a HEAVY FAV (-170+)
...losing big time on the juice!!
which included SUPER Heavy losses:
-422 April 15, home v Nats
-311 May 16, home v Reds
-318 May 22, home v Dbacks
-350 May 31, home v Rockies
So they screw the pooch again Sunday
I just think are there clear reasons why you won earlier that changed recently.. did you have edges the books missed but they caught up? If neither of these are true, then aren’t you likely to stay ahead with a cold or hot streak as variance?
like in the NFL, you clearly see all teams better after 4 weeks.. But fear of just regression alone seems unsound if you have a winning system over multiple seasons .. you might be missing the beginning of a good hot streak
I just think are there clear reasons why you won earlier that changed recently.. did you have edges the books missed but they caught up? If neither of these are true, then aren’t you likely to stay ahead with a cold or hot streak as variance?
like in the NFL, you clearly see all teams better after 4 weeks.. But fear of just regression alone seems unsound if you have a winning system over multiple seasons .. you might be missing the beginning of a good hot streak
@Hoyasaxa
Perhaps. Hard to say specifically. But thanks for your comments!
I do know however, that achieving over +51 net units in only 6 weeks after 3 years away from MLB (all scored as one unit every pick; no multi-unit picks) may itself be the good hot streak - and like all good hot streaks, they will come to an end, usually abruptly and that reverse trend (regression) tends to persist for some time in my style of handicapping - causing significant losses
@Hoyasaxa
Perhaps. Hard to say specifically. But thanks for your comments!
I do know however, that achieving over +51 net units in only 6 weeks after 3 years away from MLB (all scored as one unit every pick; no multi-unit picks) may itself be the good hot streak - and like all good hot streaks, they will come to an end, usually abruptly and that reverse trend (regression) tends to persist for some time in my style of handicapping - causing significant losses
That hot streak for HEAVY HOME FAVS is basically over. (-170 and up)
First 5 days of July, 7 - 8 -8.54u
And the regression-carnage for HEAVY HOME FAVS continues...
HHVs won 2 yesterday, but lost 3 with heavy juice!
So far, for July: 14 - 14 -12.53u
A few potential risky bets on tap for Thursday:
Reds, BoSox, Astros...... and maybe Phillies too (if they rise and close -170+)
That hot streak for HEAVY HOME FAVS is basically over. (-170 and up)
First 5 days of July, 7 - 8 -8.54u
And the regression-carnage for HEAVY HOME FAVS continues...
HHVs won 2 yesterday, but lost 3 with heavy juice!
So far, for July: 14 - 14 -12.53u
A few potential risky bets on tap for Thursday:
Reds, BoSox, Astros...... and maybe Phillies too (if they rise and close -170+)
@fubah2
Im sorry english not my first language, so what u implying is reds, bosox, astros, and prob phillies have a decent chance for fading them?
@fubah2
Im sorry english not my first language, so what u implying is reds, bosox, astros, and prob phillies have a decent chance for fading them?
@Zak1
Hmmmm.....................nah, it's too difficult to forecast the future results.
The current 50 - 50 run is unlikely to last. It too will turn, perhaps soon.
But even if it tuned back to 60% HHV winners, that is still a modest LOSS,
whereas the fade would be a significant loss!
Betting on HEAVY HOME FAVS = lower value/HIGH RISK
FADING the HHV now = losses, as recent trend reversal likely.
BUT, safest play is to PASS. You can't lose. No risk there!
@Zak1
Hmmmm.....................nah, it's too difficult to forecast the future results.
The current 50 - 50 run is unlikely to last. It too will turn, perhaps soon.
But even if it tuned back to 60% HHV winners, that is still a modest LOSS,
whereas the fade would be a significant loss!
Betting on HEAVY HOME FAVS = lower value/HIGH RISK
FADING the HHV now = losses, as recent trend reversal likely.
BUT, safest play is to PASS. You can't lose. No risk there!
i used to bet them but not anymore too high the risks
i used to bet them but not anymore too high the risks
@Zak1
Hmmmm.....................nah, it's too difficult to forecast the future results.
The current 50 - 50 run is unlikely to last. It too will turn, perhaps soon.
But even if it tuned back to 60% HHV winners, that is still a modest LOSS,
whereas the fade would be a significant loss!
Betting on HEAVY HOME FAVS = lower value/HIGH RISK
FADING the HHV now = losses, as recent trend reversal likely. BUT, safest play is to PASS. You can't lose. No risk there!
Timely advice The three big favorites won handily today.
@Zak1
Hmmmm.....................nah, it's too difficult to forecast the future results.
The current 50 - 50 run is unlikely to last. It too will turn, perhaps soon.
But even if it tuned back to 60% HHV winners, that is still a modest LOSS,
whereas the fade would be a significant loss!
Betting on HEAVY HOME FAVS = lower value/HIGH RISK
FADING the HHV now = losses, as recent trend reversal likely. BUT, safest play is to PASS. You can't lose. No risk there!
Timely advice The three big favorites won handily today.
Timely advice The three big favorites won handily today.
Timely advice The three big favorites won handily today.
@Tommygiovanny
¡Buen día! ¡Justo ahora comienzo mi día con mi primera taza de café! ¡Entonces revisaré el tablero para ver todas las series nuevas! Podrían ser horas. ¿Qué apuestas te gustan hoy?
@Tommygiovanny
¡Buen día! ¡Justo ahora comienzo mi día con mi primera taza de café! ¡Entonces revisaré el tablero para ver todas las series nuevas! Podrían ser horas. ¿Qué apuestas te gustan hoy?
@Tommygiovanny
Good day! Just now starting my day with my first cup of coffee! Then I'll check out the board to see all the new series! Could be hours.
Which bets do you like today?
@Tommygiovanny
Good day! Just now starting my day with my first cup of coffee! Then I'll check out the board to see all the new series! Could be hours.
Which bets do you like today?
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