🤢🥴💩_ Fubah's risky baseball bets _🥶😲🥵

...but what a FANTASTIC day May 30 has been!!!  

WILLIAMS had yet another GOOD outing today!!

Only 6 allowed onboard and just one run through 5.2 ip 

His  tenuous HOT STREAK continues onto #11 ...

FIVE day total of missed opportunity:  17 of 24 unders won!

Thanks for the posts, fubah. Excellent info.  What will MLB do to stop this under trend?.  

Not sure.

But 'll likely have more "unders" to track this weekend if it might help anyone.

May even list some late late tonight ...

@papamo

 Weather will start to heat up which may help the overs.

Friday, May 31   very risky bets  I made:       regression???

(pinnacle overnight lines)

 Phillies -178; Orioles -142 *BB; Cubs -139 *BB; Cleveland -210 *BB; Astros -110 *BB; Brewskys -160 *BB

WARNING:  HOT STREAK alert!

        This STARTER is riding a tenuous 8-game HOT STREAK,

                     WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak ....YET!

      ...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!!   

                  HOUCK, RedSox

Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last long"...All GOOD pitchers will have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again.  It happens to the best of them.  Just CAN NOT be avoided.

When???  We can't know that for certain but my stats over many years indicate the time to start to worry is after they reach SEVEN (7) consecutive outings without a BAD one in that bunch (at any point in the season, not just from the start) Sure some HOT streaks may continue for 2 or 3 more performances....it happens!  But for me, I don't need the stress that the bubble may burst that day.  There's 14 other games to look at.  I can simply skip those "HOT STREAK" dudes until *AFTER* their inevitable BAD outing beatdown, then resume looking at his starts after that!

WARNING:  HOT STREAK alert!

        This STARTER is riding a tenuous 9-game HOT STREAK,

                     WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak ....YET!

      ...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!!   

                          LOPEZ,  Atlanta

Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last long"...All GOOD pitchers will have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again.  It happens to the best of them.  Just CAN NOT be avoided.

When???  We can't know that for certain but my stats over many years indicate the time to start to worry is after they reach SEVEN (7) consecutive outings without a BAD one in that bunch (at any point in the season, not just from the start) Sure some HOT streaks may continue for 2 or 3 more performances....it happens!  But for me, I don't need the stress that the bubble may burst that day.  There's 14 other games to look at.  I can simply skip those "HOT STREAK" dudes until *AFTER* their inevitable BAD outing beatdown, then resume looking at his starts after that!

WARNING:  HOT STREAK alert!

        This STARTER is riding a tenuous 9-game HOT STREAK,

                     WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak ....YET!

      ...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!!   

                        BLANCO,  Houston

Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last long"...All GOOD pitchers will have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again.  It happens to the best of them.  Just CAN NOT be avoided.

When???  We can't know that for certain but my stats over many years indicate the time to start to worry is after they reach SEVEN (7) consecutive outings without a BAD one in that bunch (at any point in the season, not just from the start) Sure some HOT streaks may continue for 2 or 3 more performances....it happens!  But for me, I don't need the stress that the bubble may burst that day.  There's 14 other games to look at.  I can simply skip those "HOT STREAK" dudes until *AFTER* their inevitable BAD outing beatdown, then resume looking at his starts after that!

Cubs game    8

Orioles game   if 9 alt-line

BoSox game    if 9 alt-line

Braves game   if 9 alt-line

My 2024 full season results so far:

Aprl 30:   3 - 5     -2.65u      (1 - 2 *BB)
May 01:   7 - 0    +7.64u      (4 - 0 *BB)
May 02:   1 - 0    +1.00u
May 03:   5 - 5     -1.16u      (4 - 3 *BB)
May 04:   5 - 7     -4.25u      (4 - 2 *BB)
May 05: 11 - 8    +6.72u      (4 - 4 *BB)
May 06:   2 - 3     -1.39u      (1 - 3 *BB)
May 07:   8 - 2    +4.70u      (5 - 2 *BB)
May 08:   3 - 2    +0.58u      (2 - 1 *BB)
May 09:   2 - 0    +2.00u      (1 - 0 *BB)
May 10: 13 - 8    +5.45u      (6 - 5 *BB)
May 11:   7 - 3    +2.60u      (2 - 1 *BB)
May 12:   7 - 4    +1.34u      (1 - 2 *BB)
May 13:   2 - 6     -6.33u      (0 - 3 *BB)
May 14:   3 - 3     -1.28u      (3 - 1 *BB)
May 15:   1 - 1      -0.18u      (1 - 1 *BB)

May 16:   1 - 1     -0.41u
May 17: 10 - 2    +9.58u      (2 - 1 *BB)
May 18:   5 - 2    +3.54u      (2 - 0 *BB)
May 19:   3 - 3     -0.49u
May 20:   7 - 3    +3.30u      (4 - 0 *BB)
May 21:   4 - 2    +1.01u      (1 - 2 *BB)
May 22:   2 - 2    +0.33u
May 23:   6 - 0    +6.00u      (3 - 0 *BB)
May 24:   8 - 4    +3.28u      (3 - 0 *BB)
May 25:   2 - 3     -2.06u      (0 - 1 *BB)
May 26:   3 - 5     -3.78u      (3 - 2 *BB)
May 27:   3 - 4     -1.07u      (1 - 1 *BB)
May 28:   4 - 3     -0.36u
May 29:   5 - 1    +4.43u      (1 - 0 *BB)
May 30:   1 - 1     -0.36u

@fubah2

Hi, what do you think of these teams today, probably some of them are overpriced?  

Dodgers, Guardians, Brewers, Red Sox, Orioles, and Rangers.  I have bets on all of them, mostly via Parlay.

@Premian

 Take a look at his post # 807  

the obv side note being homey Blanco was suspended over a month…  I believe this will only be his second start back from the jailhouse. Im keenly watching for that edge if I can catch Stros at no vig or better. 

Other than that, I LOVE the Hot streak Fade…   I wish I was an over/under capper  

Ho Lee Phuk 

@wolfeman3

Oh, good, got the Orioles, Guardians and Brewers.   

But what about the Dodgers, Red Sox and Rangers?

SERIES bet:  Brewskys  -250 

Dodgers are overpriced BUT they look solid to win anyway  

@fubah2

Yeah, pretty much at -300, any team combination would be overpriced in MLB.  Hopefully they win anyway.  

The ones I am most concerned about at this point are the Red Sox and the Rangers.  

Best of luck on your Picks.   

@fubah2

 Tailed ya a bit Partner with Phi -1 and Balty ml… Nothing wild just some action.  Hey Aloha Friday, and I think you go 4-2 and collect yet again 

RedSox iffy.  Hauck is excellent but on a tenuous hot streak that can end quickly, and BoSox offense is in a slump - having scored just 19 runs over the past 2+ series (7 games)    IF Hauck does not implode they could have a fair shot to prevail today.

@wolfeman3

 In that case I really hope YOU win those two!

I am frequently wrong, but my capping stats tell me:

Brewskys -  full +2.0 run edge today!

Cleveland - +1.8 run edge today

Cubbies -  +1.3 run edge today

Dodgers - + 1.3 run edge today    (priced waaaay to high though)

Orioles -   +1.2 run edge today

Astros -  +1.2 run edge today

Braves - +1.1 run edge today   (but waaay overpriced for that edge!)

Phillies - +1.0 run edge today

Phillies edge in my stats DO NOT JUSTIFY laying -178 or so!!.....however, I am banking a bit more on a belief that a change in venue for both teams will reverse recent performances....the best team in MLB will bounce back from a 2 - 6 road trip, while their St.Louis opponent will more than likely have a slight let down after a 5 - 1 home stand, but now on the road facing a VERY TOUGH opponent looking to bounce back

@fubah2