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🤢🥴💩_ Fubah's risky baseball bets _🥶😲🥵

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Legend
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Posted: #826

Quote Originally Posted by insatiable:

@fubah2

cloveran_cheers

@insatiable

 Thank you, and BoL with your bets today! an_2drinks

 
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Posted: #827

Couldn't cap the Pitt/TOR game earlier because Pirates had not named a SP

Now Falter is listed

 
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Posted: #828

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Couldn't cap the Pitt/TOR game earlier because Pirates had not named a SP Now Falter is listed

By the looks of it, this may be a dead-even match going in.

 
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Posted: #829

@fubah2

 clover

 
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Posted: #830

@fubah2

 BOL today with your bets. Always a pleasure to read your threads and capping angles. 

 
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Posted: #831

@fubah2

I have noticed 5 of my 6 teams' lines are moving more negative and the Orioles are staying at -140.  The Dodgers, Guardians, Brewers, Rangers and Red Sox have all gone significantly more negative.  On average, is this good or bad?  I have seen mixed results.

 
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Posted: #832

clover

 
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Posted: #833

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Couldn't cap the Pitt/TOR game earlier because Pirates had not named a SP Now Falter is listed By the looks of it, this may be a dead-even match going in.

Yep, dead-even.   This is a "value" bet game where my capping stats indicate a virtual coin-flipper - ie, no discernible edge to either team but one side is getting SIGNIFICANT "plus money" on the ML (ie greater than +120). an_2drinks Same for the Det/BOS game!

 

Personally I am not betting either this time around as I am re-evaluating my methods...

 
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Posted: #834

Quote Originally Posted by Premian:

@fubah2 I have noticed 5 of my 6 teams' lines are moving more negative and the Orioles are staying at -140.  The Dodgers, Guardians, Brewers, Rangers and Red Sox have all gone significantly more negative.  On average, is this good or bad?  I have seen mixed results.
Steam?

Different cappers have different views on this. Personally, I pay no attention unless it's a significant move on BOTH the moneyline *AND* total....because then it is almost always a "player" issue which most surely could impact my bet.  I watch the injury reports closely  especially in the 90 mins prior to first pitch.

 
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Posted: #835

@fubah2

Yeah, I should watch both the Moneyline and Total to see if they are making a significant move together.  Thanks  clover

I think the Red Sox may be expected to score about an extra half a run tonight on average.

 
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Posted: #836

@OO7CRUSHER peace_5 clover

@yourpalhal clover peace_5

@Premian cloverthumbs_up

 

 

 
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Posted: #837

Quote Originally Posted by NBAKiller21:

@fubah2  BOL today with your bets.

Always a pleasure to read your threads and capping angles.

@NBAKiller21

 Thanks! peace_5 I do hope it is at least of some help on occasion!

BoL with your bets today! clover thumbs_up

 
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Posted: #838

Quote Originally Posted by wolfeman3:

@fubah2  Tailed ya a bit Partner with Phi -1 and Balty ml… Nothing wild just some action.  Hey Aloha Friday, and I think you go 4-2 and collect yet again

@wolfeman3

peace_5  BoL with your bets this weekend! Enjoy! an_2drinks

 
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Posted: #839

So tonight watching to see who if any of the starters currently on extended HOT STREAKS without a bad outing, has a "bad outing"

Houck, Boston (8)

Lopez, Atlanta (9)

Blanco, Houston (9)

 

However, even if a "streaker" has a bad outing that does not mean his team loses, since his team's bats may or may not bail him out...

 

 
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Posted: #840

Originally my capping sheets indicated TEXAS had a fair edge and with a small ML was worthy of a bet.....but I backed off upon further review because I am testing  a new idea to my capping methods - putting more emphasis on the "change of venue fortunes" - particularly if the recent stint elsewhere was either good or poor......more or less along the lines of a team being "due" for a change in recent outcomes....

....we shall see....  but I backed away from TEXAS as a result of evaluating BOTH Marlins and Rangers recent play....

 
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Posted: #841

TIGGERS  and  PIRATES, both receiving pretty good PLUS MONEY, are the two coin-flipper "value" bets tonight I am evaluating to see if my capping was more or less fairly accurate in assessing how close the matchups are...

 
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Posted: #842

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: UNDERS?  

Friday games my handicapping suggest may go UNDER (but I didn't bet!)

        Cubs game  8

        Orioles game   if taking 9 alt-line

        BoSox game    if taking 9 alt-line

        Braves game   if taking 9 alt-line

Those alt-lines do carry higher juice of course, but not so high as to make them a bad risk vs the odds of staying under.  I am just tracking these now since giving up betting unders due to losing too often with them.....since then, tracking the unders I should've taken but didn't -- they have won 17 of 24, not yet counting those above.....sigh....

 
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Posted: #843

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

So tonight watching to see who if any of the starters currently on extended HOT STREAKS without a bad outing, has a "bad outing"

Houck, Boston (8)

Lopez, Atlanta (9)

Blanco, Houston (9)

 

However, even if a "streaker" has a bad outing that does not mean his team loses, since his team's bats may or may not bail him out...

BLANCO, Houston yielded 4 earned runs in just 4.2 ip and so that ends his HOT STREAK.  The other two pitchers extend their hot streak, thus increasing the odds they might have a bad outing next time up

 
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Posted: #844

We go to the 13th inning in Toronto, tied at 3.....Two weak bullpens!.... when Jays come to bat it will be the heart of their order...LIVE BET: Jays -145

 
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Posted: #845

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Originally my capping sheets indicated TEXAS had a fair edge and with a small ML was worthy of a bet.....but I backed off upon further review because I am testing  a new idea to my capping methods - putting more emphasis on the "change of venue fortunes" - particularly if the recent stint elsewhere was either good or poor......more or less along the lines of a team being "due" for a change in recent outcomes.... ....we shall see....  but I backed away from TEXAS as a result of evaluating BOTH Marlins and Rangers recent play....
Really glad I backed off that TEXAS play!!!

 
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Posted: #846

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: So tonight watching to see who if any of the starters currently on extended HOT STREAKS without a bad outing, has a "bad outing" Houck, Boston (8) Lopez, Atlanta (9) Blanco, Houston (9)   However, even if a "streaker" has a bad outing that does not mean his team loses, since his team's bats may or may not bail him out...

 

BLANCO, Houston yielded 4 earned runs in just 4.2 ip and so that ends his HOT STREAK.  The other two pitchers extend their hot streak, thus increasing the odds they might have a bad outing next time up

Now looking like that "bad outing" will cost the Astros....

 
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Posted: #847

@fubah2

 For Sure.  I had Texas as a straight bet, and couldn't regret it more.

 
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Posted: #848

FEDDE, CWS, pitched very poorly imo....13 runners on in just 5 ip an_speechless an_getaway

and yet clung to a 5 - 4 lead when he left.....

My Brewskys hitting the ball VERY WELL but stranding people thru poor at bats!

 
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Posted: #849

@fubah2

 Yeah,  but the Brewers are making a comeback now finally.  an_horse   clover 

16 hits so far.

 
 
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Posted: #850

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

  UNDERS?  

Friday games my handicapping suggest may go UNDER (but I didn't bet!)

        Cubs game  8

        Orioles game   if taking 9 alt-line

        BoSox game    if taking 9 alt-line

        Braves game   if taking 9 alt-line

Those alt-lines do carry higher juice of course, but not so high as to make them a bad risk vs the odds of staying under.  I am just tracking these now since giving up betting unders due to losing too often with them.....since then, tracking the unders I should've taken but didn't -- they have won 17 of 24, not yet counting those above.....sigh....

Woulda gone 2 - 2 had I bet those unders with only a modest loss on juice....

Count over the past week moves to 19 - 9 that woulda stayed UNDER the total (assuming rounding up to a solid integer even with alt-total juice)

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