I’m done betting the under myself. Good luck buddy! Always must read.
Yeah.....sigh..... it's such a crapshoot these days..... I'll bide my time looking for decent OVER opportunities or just skip the totals.....don't need the stress of an under which can BLOW on the swing of a bat by one player in one AB.....
0
Quote Originally Posted by insatiable:
@fubah2
I’m done betting the under myself. Good luck buddy! Always must read.
Yeah.....sigh..... it's such a crapshoot these days..... I'll bide my time looking for decent OVER opportunities or just skip the totals.....don't need the stress of an under which can BLOW on the swing of a bat by one player in one AB.....
Famous last words?? "It looks like a watered down and weak batting lineup tonight for the beleagured and offense-challenged WhiteSox tonight against their crosstown rivals, facing one of the BEST lefties in the gaame!"
This may come back to haunt mebut the numbers are there in my capping sheets ....so I am going with it DESPITE my hesitancy with HUGE FAVS nowadays....
CUBBIES -279 (pinnacle)
PS, I don't like RL favs when home teams....
Looking like I should have gone with my rule about avoiding HUGE ML FAVS........ Best lefty starter facing WORST batting team in MLB, and it's 5 - 0 for the worst batting team in MLB....
0
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Famous last words?? "It looks like a watered down and weak batting lineup tonight for the beleagured and offense-challenged WhiteSox tonight against their crosstown rivals, facing one of the BEST lefties in the gaame!"
This may come back to haunt mebut the numbers are there in my capping sheets ....so I am going with it DESPITE my hesitancy with HUGE FAVS nowadays....
CUBBIES -279 (pinnacle)
PS, I don't like RL favs when home teams....
Looking like I should have gone with my rule about avoiding HUGE ML FAVS........ Best lefty starter facing WORST batting team in MLB, and it's 5 - 0 for the worst batting team in MLB....
Ya...... .....oh well, can't win'em all.....no biggie......big favs lose alot this year and I made an error in judgement to violate my own good sense.....
1
Quote Originally Posted by Im_Chasing:
@fubah2 Pray for rain
Ya...... .....oh well, can't win'em all.....no biggie......big favs lose alot this year and I made an error in judgement to violate my own good sense.....
A couple of dead-heat coinflippers TODAY would normally qualify: St.Louis and Oakland....both getting good PLUS MONEY in a coin-flip game.... EXCEPT: both are starting relievers on the mound.UNCERTAINTY surrounds that!!! I don't need the frickn stress so I'm laying off those coin-flips and looking for other betting opportunities instead.
While I will most likely suffer a "BAD outing of my own tonight (largely due to violating my own good sense about HUGE ML favs )...one small blessing is I had St.Louis circled as a good "value bet" initially but backed off upon further review because 2 of CARDS better bats are OUT and they put a reliever on the mound...... poor dude has been shredded for 9 baserunners and a whopping SIX earned runs in only 3.0 innings!
1
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: VALUE BETS?
A couple of dead-heat coinflippers TODAY would normally qualify: St.Louis and Oakland....both getting good PLUS MONEY in a coin-flip game.... EXCEPT: both are starting relievers on the mound.UNCERTAINTY surrounds that!!! I don't need the frickn stress so I'm laying off those coin-flips and looking for other betting opportunities instead.
While I will most likely suffer a "BAD outing of my own tonight (largely due to violating my own good sense about HUGE ML favs )...one small blessing is I had St.Louis circled as a good "value bet" initially but backed off upon further review because 2 of CARDS better bats are OUT and they put a reliever on the mound...... poor dude has been shredded for 9 baserunners and a whopping SIX earned runs in only 3.0 innings!
@fubah2 ok, enough of this crap, I'm betting against both these pitchers today...and the others coming up...I believe I'll come out ahead Thanks.. P.S don't trust Glasgow at home tonight, and the Pirates have done well there and out west for years, they swept the Dodgers last year....I'll be fading away
@Hoyasaxa
So how are you looking so far tonight? I need something to cheer about and if you're up or leading that's good enough for me!
0
Quote Originally Posted by Hoyasaxa:
@fubah2 ok, enough of this crap, I'm betting against both these pitchers today...and the others coming up...I believe I'll come out ahead Thanks.. P.S don't trust Glasgow at home tonight, and the Pirates have done well there and out west for years, they swept the Dodgers last year....I'll be fading away
@Hoyasaxa
So how are you looking so far tonight? I need something to cheer about and if you're up or leading that's good enough for me!
I did have them with a solid +1.0 run edge v the mediocre Pirates who DO NOT hit righties well at all....but the ML was far too high for that edge so I passed.....
0
Quote Originally Posted by Im_Chasing:
@fubah2 Well said. Long season
@Im_Chasing
Yep.
Another HUGE FAV loses tonight......Dodgers!
I did have them with a solid +1.0 run edge v the mediocre Pirates who DO NOT hit righties well at all....but the ML was far too high for that edge so I passed.....
For some reason, the TIGGERS pulled the good bat of URSHELA (.313 v. righties!!!) out of their lineup and put in some callup from Toeldo... Tiggers are already without their BEST bat, CARPENTER!! WTF?
I already had TEXAS with a miniscule edge (but not enough to justify a bet) but now that edge has increased just enough:
from pinnacle
TEXAS -108
Tiggers callup replacing the good bat of URSHELA didn't factor into their boxscore going 0 - 4 .....but nevertheless RANGERS bats go cold so this is a
BIG FAT LOSER
0
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
For some reason, the TIGGERS pulled the good bat of URSHELA (.313 v. righties!!!) out of their lineup and put in some callup from Toeldo... Tiggers are already without their BEST bat, CARPENTER!! WTF?
I already had TEXAS with a miniscule edge (but not enough to justify a bet) but now that edge has increased just enough:
from pinnacle
TEXAS -108
Tiggers callup replacing the good bat of URSHELA didn't factor into their boxscore going 0 - 4 .....but nevertheless RANGERS bats go cold so this is a
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: As you can see in post #906 above, my record betting UNDERS, sucks! I pay attention to my own results, so I quit betting them. My handicapping sheets still circles the potential UNDERS every day but I won't defy my own results......and sure enough, as documented here, my indicated UNDERS go on an impressive run of 19 - 9 as of Saturday since I QUIT betting them. Today, for curiosity sake, this is what my capping sheets indicate... Most involve taking an alt-total after rounding UP to the next highest integer....doing that is what resulted in the recent 19 - 9 run, although there are no guarantees this will continue: Nationals game....suggest 7.0 net runs ....so under 8 ?? Astros game ....suggests 7.3 net runs ....so under 9 alt-line?? Rockies game ....suggests 9.6 net runs ....so under 11 alt-line?? Angels game ....suggests 7.5 net runs ....so under 9 alt-line?? Had I bet those UNDERS, I would have gone 1 - 3, with big juice losses! So the the run of UNDERS which my handicapping sheets have circled as decent plays SINCE I QUIT BETTING THEM, drops to 20 winners vs 12 losers.....still good, but I won't bet them. HOWEVER, if I was tempted, then today's KC/Cleveland game looks very tempting at the alt-line of 9 total (not 8.5 nor 8.0!) Before I QUIT betting unders, an UNDER 9.0 here would likely get my *BEST BET tag! A great Sp vs a decent SP backed by the BEST bullpen; neither team scary when batting v righties! Breeze inward.....
BUT there's an issue: LUGO for KC, as great as he is, is riding a very tenuous 7-game HOT STREAK....IF he implodes, the chances of losing an under 9 increase significantly....
He imploded...
0
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: As you can see in post #906 above, my record betting UNDERS, sucks! I pay attention to my own results, so I quit betting them. My handicapping sheets still circles the potential UNDERS every day but I won't defy my own results......and sure enough, as documented here, my indicated UNDERS go on an impressive run of 19 - 9 as of Saturday since I QUIT betting them. Today, for curiosity sake, this is what my capping sheets indicate... Most involve taking an alt-total after rounding UP to the next highest integer....doing that is what resulted in the recent 19 - 9 run, although there are no guarantees this will continue: Nationals game....suggest 7.0 net runs ....so under 8 ?? Astros game ....suggests 7.3 net runs ....so under 9 alt-line?? Rockies game ....suggests 9.6 net runs ....so under 11 alt-line?? Angels game ....suggests 7.5 net runs ....so under 9 alt-line?? Had I bet those UNDERS, I would have gone 1 - 3, with big juice losses! So the the run of UNDERS which my handicapping sheets have circled as decent plays SINCE I QUIT BETTING THEM, drops to 20 winners vs 12 losers.....still good, but I won't bet them. HOWEVER, if I was tempted, then today's KC/Cleveland game looks very tempting at the alt-line of 9 total (not 8.5 nor 8.0!) Before I QUIT betting unders, an UNDER 9.0 here would likely get my *BEST BET tag! A great Sp vs a decent SP backed by the BEST bullpen; neither team scary when batting v righties! Breeze inward.....
BUT there's an issue: LUGO for KC, as great as he is, is riding a very tenuous 7-game HOT STREAK....IF he implodes, the chances of losing an under 9 increase significantly....
WARNING: HOT STREAK alert! This STARTER is riding a tenuous 12-game HOT STREAK, WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak ....YET! ...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!! BURNES, Orioles
Burnes' HOT STREAK continues for another day.....now 13 consecutive starts WITHOUT getting roughed up yet.....
Scheduled to face the RAYS next weekend then the Phillies the following week
0
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
WARNING: HOT STREAK alert! This STARTER is riding a tenuous 12-game HOT STREAK, WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak ....YET! ...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!! BURNES, Orioles
Burnes' HOT STREAK continues for another day.....now 13 consecutive starts WITHOUT getting roughed up yet.....
Scheduled to face the RAYS next weekend then the Phillies the following week
Famous last words?? "It looks like a watered down and weak batting lineup tonight for the beleagured and offense-challenged WhiteSox tonight against their crosstown rivals, facing one of the BEST lefties in the gaame!"
This may come back to haunt me but the numbers are there in my capping sheets ....so I am going with it DESPITE my hesitancy with HUGE FAVS nowadays....
CUBBIES -279 (pinnacle)
So, the Cardiac CUBS come back for the win afterall....
Relief.
I finish the day 1 - 2 -1.63u ....split my two pre-game posted bets
0
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Famous last words?? "It looks like a watered down and weak batting lineup tonight for the beleagured and offense-challenged WhiteSox tonight against their crosstown rivals, facing one of the BEST lefties in the gaame!"
This may come back to haunt me but the numbers are there in my capping sheets ....so I am going with it DESPITE my hesitancy with HUGE FAVS nowadays....
CUBBIES -279 (pinnacle)
So, the Cardiac CUBS come back for the win afterall....
Relief.
I finish the day 1 - 2 -1.63u ....split my two pre-game posted bets
In the first game I have BRAVES with a modest edge at the plate and the are the better team over mediocre BoSox.
But this kid Schwellenbach represents an "uncertainty" to me without more than just one game pitching stats. Who knows how he will fare on the road against the green monster.... and I am NOT going to make a guess then hope I'm right... Pivetta is decent and could have a good game, but again, who knows....
Guessing = gambler's ruin
PASS. Plenty of other games to look at ...
1
Just began looking at today's games....
In the first game I have BRAVES with a modest edge at the plate and the are the better team over mediocre BoSox.
But this kid Schwellenbach represents an "uncertainty" to me without more than just one game pitching stats. Who knows how he will fare on the road against the green monster.... and I am NOT going to make a guess then hope I'm right... Pivetta is decent and could have a good game, but again, who knows....
This bet could be another Fubah faux pas, as I haven't even had my morning coffee yet...BUT...in the Rockies game, I see two very mediocre offenses, facing righthanders - which neither hits well, esp. Cinci - and a fairly moderate breeze blowing IN from left toward homeplate.....
Yesterday, they totalled 5 runs with the same breeze blowing IN.....REDS were facing a lefty - and batting lefties is their strong suit yet they only managed 4 runs......Today they face a Rockies starter with similar stats but he's a RIGHTY - and the REDS rank 3rd WORST batting avg v. righties, 3rd WORST OBP v. righties, and tied for 5th WORST OPS!
Now anything can happen in baseball. But my handicapping has this game marked at between 8.8 and 9.5 runs assuming the weather forecast 5 hours in advance of gametime can be relied upon.... My recent woes with UNDERS gives pause, of course, but they don't all lose.....so I grabbed the alt-line for a little cushion at pinnacle:
Cinci/COLO UNDER 12 -127*BB (still available!) ... and may Lord have mercy..... I would NOT bet under 11.5 under any circumstance
1
This bet could be another Fubah faux pas, as I haven't even had my morning coffee yet...BUT...in the Rockies game, I see two very mediocre offenses, facing righthanders - which neither hits well, esp. Cinci - and a fairly moderate breeze blowing IN from left toward homeplate.....
Yesterday, they totalled 5 runs with the same breeze blowing IN.....REDS were facing a lefty - and batting lefties is their strong suit yet they only managed 4 runs......Today they face a Rockies starter with similar stats but he's a RIGHTY - and the REDS rank 3rd WORST batting avg v. righties, 3rd WORST OBP v. righties, and tied for 5th WORST OPS!
Now anything can happen in baseball. But my handicapping has this game marked at between 8.8 and 9.5 runs assuming the weather forecast 5 hours in advance of gametime can be relied upon.... My recent woes with UNDERS gives pause, of course, but they don't all lose.....so I grabbed the alt-line for a little cushion at pinnacle:
Cinci/COLO UNDER 12 -127*BB (still available!) ... and may Lord have mercy..... I would NOT bet under 11.5 under any circumstance
And now I refreshed the weather page at Swish Analytics and see the wind at COORS FIELD has been upgraded by an additional 2 more MPH *IN* from left......
Keep in mind, there are NO GUARANTEES in baseball. This could fail on me once again, but I gotta go with my handicapping stats esp when approaching overwhelming status for an UNDER 12..... However, it it fails, there' no crying in baseball....
1
And now I refreshed the weather page at Swish Analytics and see the wind at COORS FIELD has been upgraded by an additional 2 more MPH *IN* from left......
Keep in mind, there are NO GUARANTEES in baseball. This could fail on me once again, but I gotta go with my handicapping stats esp when approaching overwhelming status for an UNDER 12..... However, it it fails, there' no crying in baseball....
And now I refreshed the weather page at Swish Analytics and see the wind at COORS FIELD has been upgraded by an additional 2 more MPH *IN* from left...... Keep in mind, there are NO GUARANTEES in baseball. This could fail on me once again, but I gotta go with my handicapping stats esp when approaching overwhelming status for an UNDER 12..... However, it it fails, there' no crying in baseball....
CAUTION following my UNDERS!
• Totals, Unders posted pre-game: 6 - 9 -5.49u
1
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
And now I refreshed the weather page at Swish Analytics and see the wind at COORS FIELD has been upgraded by an additional 2 more MPH *IN* from left...... Keep in mind, there are NO GUARANTEES in baseball. This could fail on me once again, but I gotta go with my handicapping stats esp when approaching overwhelming status for an UNDER 12..... However, it it fails, there' no crying in baseball....
My capping sheets indicate the ASTROS begin with an edge at the plate and that might be slightly more now with CARDS missing another top batter (Nootbaar).
In game one of this series - with Houston holding that modest edge at the plate - I saw the pitching matchup in a very slight favor for St.Louis.
St.Louis lost by 3 runs.
In game 2 (yesterday) we knew Arri9ghetti was weaker than mean avg but the questionmark was reliever Pallante for the Cards....call that one roughly even on the mound....
St.Louis again loses by 3 runs.
Today, Houston still holds that modest edge at the plate to begin with, except now, the pitching matchup - at least on paper - *CLEARLY* tilts in ASTROS favor! I have them for a net +1.4 run edge.
ASTROS -163 (pinnacle) *BB
3
Cards @ASTROS?
My capping sheets indicate the ASTROS begin with an edge at the plate and that might be slightly more now with CARDS missing another top batter (Nootbaar).
In game one of this series - with Houston holding that modest edge at the plate - I saw the pitching matchup in a very slight favor for St.Louis.
St.Louis lost by 3 runs.
In game 2 (yesterday) we knew Arri9ghetti was weaker than mean avg but the questionmark was reliever Pallante for the Cards....call that one roughly even on the mound....
St.Louis again loses by 3 runs.
Today, Houston still holds that modest edge at the plate to begin with, except now, the pitching matchup - at least on paper - *CLEARLY* tilts in ASTROS favor! I have them for a net +1.4 run edge.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on
this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide
any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in
your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner
of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.
This may come back to haunt me 
.....oh well, can't win'em all.....no biggie......big favs lose alot this year and I made an error in judgement to violate my own good sense.....
)...one small blessing is I had St.Louis circled as a good "value bet" initially but backed off upon further review because 2 of CARDS better bats are OUT 
Hot Forum Topics
