W Cleveland series -135 (pending from Friday) W Cleveland -116 *BB W Orioles -143 *BB W LIVE BET 1st inn: "Cardiac CUBS" -185 W BoSox -139 L LIVE HEDGE BET: CWS -120 L ROYALS -131 *BB W LIVE HEDGE BET: Seattle +110 *BB
W Cleveland series -135 (pending from Friday) W Cleveland -116 *BB W Orioles -143 *BB W LIVE BET 1st inn: "Cardiac CUBS" -185 W BoSox -139 L LIVE HEDGE BET: CWS -120 L ROYALS -131 *BB W LIVE HEDGE BET: Seattle +110 *BB
Quote Originally Posted by Premian: @fubah2 But the Mariners' edge and the Twins edge don't justify the current ML right, not even close? You are correct with that statement, according to my research/capping stats on outcomes resulting from edges. However, this does not mean the opponent wins! It means bets on Mariners and Twins may well be a higher risk than they are worth....so I PASS.... The Padres are close though...
Yankees, Brewskys and Astros all have similar very small edges, and I suggest the moneylines accurately reflect them in those games.
I PASS on those also
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Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by Premian: @fubah2 But the Mariners' edge and the Twins edge don't justify the current ML right, not even close? You are correct with that statement, according to my research/capping stats on outcomes resulting from edges. However, this does not mean the opponent wins! It means bets on Mariners and Twins may well be a higher risk than they are worth....so I PASS.... The Padres are close though...
Yankees, Brewskys and Astros all have similar very small edges, and I suggest the moneylines accurately reflect them in those games.
Quote Originally Posted by Premian: @fubah2 But the Mariners' edge and the Twins edge don't justify the current ML right, not even close? You are correct with that statement, according to my research/capping stats on outcomes resulting from edges. However, this does not mean the opponent wins! It means bets on Mariners and Twins may well be a higher risk than they are worth....so I PASS.... The Padres are close though...
June 10: Padres -1.5 -105
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Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by Premian: @fubah2 But the Mariners' edge and the Twins edge don't justify the current ML right, not even close? You are correct with that statement, according to my research/capping stats on outcomes resulting from edges. However, this does not mean the opponent wins! It means bets on Mariners and Twins may well be a higher risk than they are worth....so I PASS.... The Padres are close though...
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by Premian: @fubah2 But the Mariners' edge and the Twins edge don't justify the current ML right, not even close? You are correct with that statement, according to my research/capping stats on outcomes resulting from edges. However, this does not mean the opponent wins! It means bets on Mariners and Twins may well be a higher risk than they are worth....so I PASS.... The Padres are close though...June 10: Padres -1.5 -105
Padres already in trouble....
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Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by Premian: @fubah2 But the Mariners' edge and the Twins edge don't justify the current ML right, not even close? You are correct with that statement, according to my research/capping stats on outcomes resulting from edges. However, this does not mean the opponent wins! It means bets on Mariners and Twins may well be a higher risk than they are worth....so I PASS.... The Padres are close though...June 10: Padres -1.5 -105
@fubah2 Congrats on the Padres win. I took the Phillies this morning at -170. I just couldn't find anything else. Do you think their bats will wake up today? Good luck with all your picks.
Hey bud Hmmmm.....maybe.....I do have the Phillies with a +1.0 run edge....For that magnitude edge I would really prefer the ML to be under -139 BUT I am frequently wrong so I wouldn't sweat it....
I have a few bets to post soon
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Quote Originally Posted by Premian:
@fubah2 Congrats on the Padres win. I took the Phillies this morning at -170. I just couldn't find anything else. Do you think their bats will wake up today? Good luck with all your picks.
Hey bud Hmmmm.....maybe.....I do have the Phillies with a +1.0 run edge....For that magnitude edge I would really prefer the ML to be under -139 BUT I am frequently wrong so I wouldn't sweat it....
A second game where I actually have the home team with a +0.6 run edge, yet they are getting the plus money!
SKENES for Pitt is fine, sure but it's still early yet. He's facing a HOME TEAM that is no worse than avg v. righthanders. Don't sell MIKOLAS short here! His numbers are damn decent (not fantastic) and he's facing the PIRATES bats which are WEAK v. righties. I make the mound matchup dead-even as a result and the CARDS have the better pen for support.
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Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Tuesday, June 11:
St. Louis +118pinnacle overnight lines
A second game where I actually have the home team with a +0.6 run edge, yet they are getting the plus money!
SKENES for Pitt is fine, sure but it's still early yet. He's facing a HOME TEAM that is no worse than avg v. righthanders. Don't sell MIKOLAS short here! His numbers are damn decent (not fantastic) and he's facing the PIRATES bats which are WEAK v. righties. I make the mound matchup dead-even as a result and the CARDS have the better pen for support.
Yeah, I just went with the Orioles at +120. Seems like a fairly good chance to win, (over 50%). I would like to be up around 67% win rate, but this probably isn't one of those types of bets.
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@fubah2
Yeah, I just went with the Orioles at +120. Seems like a fairly good chance to win, (over 50%). I would like to be up around 67% win rate, but this probably isn't one of those types of bets.
@fubah2 Yeah, I just went with the Orioles at +120. Seems like a fairly good chance to win, (over 50%). I would like to be up around 67% win rate, but this probably isn't one of those types of bets.
More coming..... I am a slow-ass typist...
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Quote Originally Posted by Premian:
@fubah2 Yeah, I just went with the Orioles at +120. Seems like a fairly good chance to win, (over 50%). I would like to be up around 67% win rate, but this probably isn't one of those types of bets.
Over the past 30 days, according to my handicapping sheets when I account for "skewed" results, the ROCKIES have been averaging about 4.1 rpg, which is a marked improvement from April! Over the same period, also adjusting the numbers to eliminate skewing, the TWINKIES avg only 3.4 rpg.....Twins have picked it up just a bit more recently but ROCKIES have kept pace. I'll give the TWINS a small edge at the plate however because personally I anticipate improvement now with the change of venue coming off a BAD 3 - 6 road trip...... Now, gentlemen, look at the pitching matchup....and decide for yourself....
Twinkies have an edge, yes, but waaaaaaaaaaay overpriced here, imv. Betting the RL, even if I don't win outright I can still cover if the TWINS pull off a close victory.
BUT, as always no guarantees, and this one is a close call!
COLORADO RL +1.5 -115
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Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Tuesday, June 11:
Over the past 30 days, according to my handicapping sheets when I account for "skewed" results, the ROCKIES have been averaging about 4.1 rpg, which is a marked improvement from April! Over the same period, also adjusting the numbers to eliminate skewing, the TWINKIES avg only 3.4 rpg.....Twins have picked it up just a bit more recently but ROCKIES have kept pace. I'll give the TWINS a small edge at the plate however because personally I anticipate improvement now with the change of venue coming off a BAD 3 - 6 road trip...... Now, gentlemen, look at the pitching matchup....and decide for yourself....
Twinkies have an edge, yes, but waaaaaaaaaaay overpriced here, imv. Betting the RL, even if I don't win outright I can still cover if the TWINS pull off a close victory.
BUT, as always no guarantees, and this one is a close call!
The Cleveland @Cinci game looks interesting due to the questions surrounding BOTH starters! I make it just about even there butCLEVELAND definitely has the stronger support from the pen - as they have all season. Their bats have piocked up a bit the past 30 days as well and they should have a modest to strong edge at the plate as well, given they bat lefties VERY WELLwhile the REDS struggle against righthanders - even mediocre ones like McKenzie.....but we shall see. Ya payz yer money and ya takes yer chances. I have CLEVELAND rated for a +1.0 run edge and at this line it's a bet!
CLEVELAND -125@Bet365
1
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
YTD: 180 - 116+47.53u (70 - 44 *BB)
The Cleveland @Cinci game looks interesting due to the questions surrounding BOTH starters! I make it just about even there butCLEVELAND definitely has the stronger support from the pen - as they have all season. Their bats have piocked up a bit the past 30 days as well and they should have a modest to strong edge at the plate as well, given they bat lefties VERY WELLwhile the REDS struggle against righthanders - even mediocre ones like McKenzie.....but we shall see. Ya payz yer money and ya takes yer chances. I have CLEVELAND rated for a +1.0 run edge and at this line it's a bet!
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by Premian: @fubah2 But the Mariners' edge and the Twins edge don't justify the current ML right, not even close? You are correct with that statement, according to my research/capping stats on outcomes resulting from edges. However, this does not mean the opponent wins! It means bets on Mariners and Twins may well be a higher risk than they are worth....so I PASS.... The Padres are close though...June 10: Padres -1.5 -105
Another solid winner. Good stuff fubah
Good luck on today's plays
1
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by Premian: @fubah2 But the Mariners' edge and the Twins edge don't justify the current ML right, not even close? You are correct with that statement, according to my research/capping stats on outcomes resulting from edges. However, this does not mean the opponent wins! It means bets on Mariners and Twins may well be a higher risk than they are worth....so I PASS.... The Padres are close though...June 10: Padres -1.5 -105
The Cleveland @Cinci game looks interesting due to the questions surrounding BOTH starters! I make it just about even there butCLEVELAND definitely has the stronger support from the pen - as they have all season. Their bats have piocked up a bit the past 30 days as well and they should have a modest to strong edge at the plate as well, given they bat lefties VERY WELL while the REDS struggle against righthanders - even mediocre ones like McKenzie.....but we shall see. Ya payz yer money and ya takes yer chances.I have CLEVELAND rated for a +1.0 run edge and at this line it's a bet! CLEVELAND -125 @Bet365
I like the METS to win but my calculated +0.8 run edge needs a smaller fav line than current so I'll wait til it comes down or just PASS......I don't need to bet it....
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Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
YTD: 180 - 116 +47.53u (70 - 44 *BB)
The Cleveland @Cinci game looks interesting due to the questions surrounding BOTH starters! I make it just about even there butCLEVELAND definitely has the stronger support from the pen - as they have all season. Their bats have piocked up a bit the past 30 days as well and they should have a modest to strong edge at the plate as well, given they bat lefties VERY WELL while the REDS struggle against righthanders - even mediocre ones like McKenzie.....but we shall see. Ya payz yer money and ya takes yer chances.I have CLEVELAND rated for a +1.0 run edge and at this line it's a bet! CLEVELAND -125 @Bet365
I like the METS to win but my calculated +0.8 run edge needs a smaller fav line than current so I'll wait til it comes down or just PASS......I don't need to bet it....
Today’s game will be close with varland pitching but twins get win and sweep the series. Important homestand. Thinking sweep A’ worse case 3-1 and take series with Tampa bay 2-1 that would give them 8-2 homestand. More importantly get back into central division race and take over lead.
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Today’s game will be close with varland pitching but twins get win and sweep the series. Important homestand. Thinking sweep A’ worse case 3-1 and take series with Tampa bay 2-1 that would give them 8-2 homestand. More importantly get back into central division race and take over lead.
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(67 - 42 *BB)
Hmmmm.....maybe.....I do have the Phillies with a 
A second game where I actually have the home team with a +0.6 run edge, yet they are getting the plus money! 
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