Quote Originally Posted by umgmu: You either avoid the yanks or bet the chisox. It's never smart to be -300 or more especially as a road fav. Yep. Tied for first place in MLB and they were MAULED by the worst team in baseball.....as a -350 HEAVY FAV! CWS committed the only 2 errors and still outhit the NYY 18 - 9 and whupped them 12 - 2...
Meanwhile, HHFs Padres and Dbacks both won....but each by just one run, so backers who thought playing the RL was safer would have lost BOTH!
0
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by umgmu: You either avoid the yanks or bet the chisox. It's never smart to be -300 or more especially as a road fav. Yep. Tied for first place in MLB and they were MAULED by the worst team in baseball.....as a -350 HEAVY FAV! CWS committed the only 2 errors and still outhit the NYY 18 - 9 and whupped them 12 - 2...
Meanwhile, HHFs Padres and Dbacks both won....but each by just one run, so backers who thought playing the RL was safer would have lost BOTH!
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by umgmu: You either avoid the yanks or bet the chisox. It's never smart to be -300 or more especially as a road fav. Yep. Tied for first place in MLB and they were MAULED by the worst team in baseball.....as a -350 HEAVY FAV! CWS committed the only 2 errors and still outhit the NYY 18 - 9 and whupped them 12 - 2... Meanwhile, HHFs Padres and Dbacks both won....but each by just one run, so backers who thought playing the RL was safer would have lost BOTH!
HEAVY HOME FAVS (HHF = -170+) on tap Tuesday:
Phillies, Mets, Dbacks, Padres and possibly Orioles too.
0
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by umgmu: You either avoid the yanks or bet the chisox. It's never smart to be -300 or more especially as a road fav. Yep. Tied for first place in MLB and they were MAULED by the worst team in baseball.....as a -350 HEAVY FAV! CWS committed the only 2 errors and still outhit the NYY 18 - 9 and whupped them 12 - 2... Meanwhile, HHFs Padres and Dbacks both won....but each by just one run, so backers who thought playing the RL was safer would have lost BOTH!
HEAVY HOME FAVS (HHF = -170+) on tap Tuesday:
Phillies, Mets, Dbacks, Padres and possibly Orioles too.
MOOKIE returns! Slugger, Mookie Betts went 2-for-4 with a two-run home run, an RBI single and a stolen base during Monday's Dodger 5-2 win over the Brewers.
That said ..... starter GAVIN STONE (Dodgers) has been dreadful since start of July (the time period which should matter most in our capping since it is the most recent)
3 consecutive BAD outings...
5 of the last 6 outings were BAD......Dodgers won just once!
1
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
MOOKIE returns! Slugger, Mookie Betts went 2-for-4 with a two-run home run, an RBI single and a stolen base during Monday's Dodger 5-2 win over the Brewers.
That said ..... starter GAVIN STONE (Dodgers) has been dreadful since start of July (the time period which should matter most in our capping since it is the most recent)
3 consecutive BAD outings...
5 of the last 6 outings were BAD......Dodgers won just once!
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: MOOKIE returns! Slugger, Mookie Betts went 2-for-4 with a two-run home run, an RBI single and a stolen base during Monday's Dodger 5-2 win over the Brewers. That said ..... starter GAVIN STONE (Dodgers) has been dreadful since start of July (the time period which should matter most in our capping since it is the most recent) 3 consecutive BAD outings... 5 of the last 6 outings were BAD......Dodgers won just once!
Thew addition of BETTS to the Dodger batting order is certainly a big PLUS!!
OTOH, GAVIN STONE (LAD) who has pitched very poorly the past 6 weeks will face the 2nd best batting team against righties...
1
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: MOOKIE returns! Slugger, Mookie Betts went 2-for-4 with a two-run home run, an RBI single and a stolen base during Monday's Dodger 5-2 win over the Brewers. That said ..... starter GAVIN STONE (Dodgers) has been dreadful since start of July (the time period which should matter most in our capping since it is the most recent) 3 consecutive BAD outings... 5 of the last 6 outings were BAD......Dodgers won just once!
Thew addition of BETTS to the Dodger batting order is certainly a big PLUS!!
OTOH, GAVIN STONE (LAD) who has pitched very poorly the past 6 weeks will face the 2nd best batting team against righties...
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: MOOKIE returns! Slugger, Mookie Betts went 2-for-4 with a two-run home run, an RBI single and a stolen base during Monday's Dodger 5-2 win over the Brewers. That said ..... starter GAVIN STONE (Dodgers) has been dreadful since start of July (the time period which should matter most in our capping since it is the most recent) 3 consecutive BAD outings... 5 of the last 6 outings were BAD......Dodgers won just once!
The addition of BETTS to the Dodger batting order is certainly a big PLUS!!
OTOH, GAVIN STONE (LAD) who has pitched very poorly the past 6 weeks will face the 2nd best batting team against righties...
And the Brewskies have a decent starter on the mound....REA has good numbers and more importantly (in my capping) has pitched well in 5 of his last 6 starts since July 01, albeit vs mediocre bats (but just one loss - exact opposite of Gavin Stone)
VERY CLOSE CALL, imo .... i make the odds about 50/50
1
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: MOOKIE returns! Slugger, Mookie Betts went 2-for-4 with a two-run home run, an RBI single and a stolen base during Monday's Dodger 5-2 win over the Brewers. That said ..... starter GAVIN STONE (Dodgers) has been dreadful since start of July (the time period which should matter most in our capping since it is the most recent) 3 consecutive BAD outings... 5 of the last 6 outings were BAD......Dodgers won just once!
The addition of BETTS to the Dodger batting order is certainly a big PLUS!!
OTOH, GAVIN STONE (LAD) who has pitched very poorly the past 6 weeks will face the 2nd best batting team against righties...
And the Brewskies have a decent starter on the mound....REA has good numbers and more importantly (in my capping) has pitched well in 5 of his last 6 starts since July 01, albeit vs mediocre bats (but just one loss - exact opposite of Gavin Stone)
VERY CLOSE CALL, imo .... i make the odds about 50/50
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Update: HEAVY HOME FAVS (HHF = -170+) on tap Tuesday: Phillies, Mets, Dbacks, Padres, Orioles So how are those 5 listed HHFs doing today... Orioles lost at home 9 - 3; closed at -188 Phillies lost at home 5 - 0; closed at -205 Mets lost at home 9 - 4; closed at -196 DBacks and Padres pending...
HEAVY HOME FAVS lose again!
2 - 3 for a HUGE -3.89 loss (closing odds)
*Wednesday could have as many as 5 HHF lines to avoid
1
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Update: HEAVY HOME FAVS (HHF = -170+) on tap Tuesday: Phillies, Mets, Dbacks, Padres, Orioles So how are those 5 listed HHFs doing today... Orioles lost at home 9 - 3; closed at -188 Phillies lost at home 5 - 0; closed at -205 Mets lost at home 9 - 4; closed at -196 DBacks and Padres pending...
HEAVY HOME FAVS lose again!
2 - 3 for a HUGE -3.89 loss (closing odds)
*Wednesday could have as many as 5 HHF lines to avoid
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Update: HEAVY HOME FAVS (HHF = -170+) on tap Tuesday: Phillies, Mets, Dbacks, Padres, Orioles So how are those 5 listed HHFs doing today... Orioles lost at home 9 - 3; closed at -188 Phillies lost at home 5 - 0; closed at -205 Mets lost at home 9 - 4; closed at -196 DBacks and Padres pending...
HEAVY HOME FAVS lose again!
2 - 3 for a HUGE -3.89 loss (closing odds)
Additionally from Tuesday's carnage, one of those 2 wins was a walkoff by one run, meaning had one thought taking the RL was a safer choice, yesterday would have gone 1 - 4 for a loss of over 6 units!
HHFs on tap for Wednesday:
DBacks, Orioles, Mets ... and possibly Phillies
0
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Update: HEAVY HOME FAVS (HHF = -170+) on tap Tuesday: Phillies, Mets, Dbacks, Padres, Orioles So how are those 5 listed HHFs doing today... Orioles lost at home 9 - 3; closed at -188 Phillies lost at home 5 - 0; closed at -205 Mets lost at home 9 - 4; closed at -196 DBacks and Padres pending...
HEAVY HOME FAVS lose again!
2 - 3 for a HUGE -3.89 loss (closing odds)
Additionally from Tuesday's carnage, one of those 2 wins was a walkoff by one run, meaning had one thought taking the RL was a safer choice, yesterday would have gone 1 - 4 for a loss of over 6 units!
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Update: HEAVY HOME FAVS (HHF = -170+) on tap Tuesday: Phillies, Mets, Dbacks, Padres, Orioles So how are those 5 listed HHFs doing today... Orioles lost at home 9 - 3; closed at -188 Phillies lost at home 5 - 0; closed at -205 Mets lost at home 9 - 4; closed at -196 DBacks and Padres pending... HEAVY HOME FAVS lose again! 2 - 3 for a HUGE -3.89 loss (closing odds) Additionally from Tuesday's carnage, one of those 2 wins was a walkoff by one run, meaning had one thought taking the RL was a safer choice, yesterday would have gone 1 - 4 for a loss of over 6 units! HHFs on tap for Wednesday: DBacks, Orioles, Mets ... and possibly Phillies
Phillies were a HHF on the overnight lines but rapidly dropped early today and never closed above -170 so they will not have the HHF tag today
0
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Update: HEAVY HOME FAVS (HHF = -170+) on tap Tuesday: Phillies, Mets, Dbacks, Padres, Orioles So how are those 5 listed HHFs doing today... Orioles lost at home 9 - 3; closed at -188 Phillies lost at home 5 - 0; closed at -205 Mets lost at home 9 - 4; closed at -196 DBacks and Padres pending... HEAVY HOME FAVS lose again! 2 - 3 for a HUGE -3.89 loss (closing odds) Additionally from Tuesday's carnage, one of those 2 wins was a walkoff by one run, meaning had one thought taking the RL was a safer choice, yesterday would have gone 1 - 4 for a loss of over 6 units! HHFs on tap for Wednesday: DBacks, Orioles, Mets ... and possibly Phillies
Phillies were a HHF on the overnight lines but rapidly dropped early today and never closed above -170 so they will not have the HHF tag today
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Update: HEAVY HOME FAVS (HHF = -170+) on tap Tuesday: Phillies, Mets, Dbacks, Padres, Orioles So how are those 5 listed HHFs doing today... Orioles lost at home 9 - 3; closed at -188 Phillies lost at home 5 - 0; closed at -205 Mets lost at home 9 - 4; closed at -196 DBacks and Padres pending... HEAVY HOME FAVS lose again! 2 - 3 for a HUGE -3.89 loss (closing odds) Additionally from Tuesday's carnage, one of those 2 wins was a walkoff by one run, meaning had one thought taking the RL was a safer choice, yesterday would have gone 1 - 4 for a loss of over 6 units! HHFs on tap for Wednesday: DBacks, Orioles, Mets ... and possibly Phillies Phillies were a HHF on the overnight lines but rapidly dropped early today and never closed above -170 so they will not have the HHF tag today
Sure enough, the HHFs today are winning ...
0
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Update: HEAVY HOME FAVS (HHF = -170+) on tap Tuesday: Phillies, Mets, Dbacks, Padres, Orioles So how are those 5 listed HHFs doing today... Orioles lost at home 9 - 3; closed at -188 Phillies lost at home 5 - 0; closed at -205 Mets lost at home 9 - 4; closed at -196 DBacks and Padres pending... HEAVY HOME FAVS lose again! 2 - 3 for a HUGE -3.89 loss (closing odds) Additionally from Tuesday's carnage, one of those 2 wins was a walkoff by one run, meaning had one thought taking the RL was a safer choice, yesterday would have gone 1 - 4 for a loss of over 6 units! HHFs on tap for Wednesday: DBacks, Orioles, Mets ... and possibly Phillies Phillies were a HHF on the overnight lines but rapidly dropped early today and never closed above -170 so they will not have the HHF tag today
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Update: HEAVY HOME FAVS (HHF = -170+) on tap Tuesday: Phillies, Mets, Dbacks, Padres, Orioles So how are those 5 listed HHFs doing today... Orioles lost at home 9 - 3; closed at -188 Phillies lost at home 5 - 0; closed at -205 Mets lost at home 9 - 4; closed at -196 DBacks and Padres pending... HEAVY HOME FAVS lose again! 2 - 3 for a HUGE -3.89 loss (closing odds) Additionally from Tuesday's carnage, one of those 2 wins was a walkoff by one run, meaning had one thought taking the RL was a safer choice, yesterday would have gone 1 - 4 for a loss of over 6 units! HHFs on tap for Wednesday: DBacks, Orioles, Mets ... and possibly Phillies Phillies were a HHF on the overnight lines but rapidly dropped early today and never closed above -170 so they will not have the HHF tag today Sure enough, the HHFs today are winning ...
Could finish tonight 3 - 0 to make up some of the huge losses the past few days
0
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Update: HEAVY HOME FAVS (HHF = -170+) on tap Tuesday: Phillies, Mets, Dbacks, Padres, Orioles So how are those 5 listed HHFs doing today... Orioles lost at home 9 - 3; closed at -188 Phillies lost at home 5 - 0; closed at -205 Mets lost at home 9 - 4; closed at -196 DBacks and Padres pending... HEAVY HOME FAVS lose again! 2 - 3 for a HUGE -3.89 loss (closing odds) Additionally from Tuesday's carnage, one of those 2 wins was a walkoff by one run, meaning had one thought taking the RL was a safer choice, yesterday would have gone 1 - 4 for a loss of over 6 units! HHFs on tap for Wednesday: DBacks, Orioles, Mets ... and possibly Phillies Phillies were a HHF on the overnight lines but rapidly dropped early today and never closed above -170 so they will not have the HHF tag today Sure enough, the HHFs today are winning ...
Could finish tonight 3 - 0 to make up some of the huge losses the past few days
This STARTER is riding a tenuous 9-gameHOT STREAK,
WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET!
...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!!
OBER, Twinkies
Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last long"...All GOOD pitchers will have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again. It happens to the best of them. Just CAN NOT be avoided.
When??? We can't know that for certain but my stats over many years indicate the time to start to worry is when they reach SEVEN (7) consecutive outings without a BAD one in that bunch (at any point in the season) Sure some HOT streaks may continue for 2 or 3 more performances. It happens! But for me, I don't need the stress that his bubble may burst that day! There's other games to look at. I can simply skip those "STREAKER" dudes until *AFTER* their inevitable BAD outing, then resume looking at his starts after that!
1
WARNING: STREAKER alert!
This STARTER is riding a tenuous 9-gameHOT STREAK,
WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET!
...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!!
OBER, Twinkies
Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last long"...All GOOD pitchers will have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again. It happens to the best of them. Just CAN NOT be avoided.
When??? We can't know that for certain but my stats over many years indicate the time to start to worry is when they reach SEVEN (7) consecutive outings without a BAD one in that bunch (at any point in the season) Sure some HOT streaks may continue for 2 or 3 more performances. It happens! But for me, I don't need the stress that his bubble may burst that day! There's other games to look at. I can simply skip those "STREAKER" dudes until *AFTER* their inevitable BAD outing, then resume looking at his starts after that!
WARNING: STREAKER alert! This STARTER is riding a tenuous 9-game HOT STREAK, WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET! ...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!! OBER, Twinkies Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last long"...All GOOD pitchers will have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again. It happens to the best of them. Just CAN NOT be avoided. When??? We can't know that for certain but my stats over many years indicate the time to start to worry is when they reach SEVEN (7) consecutive outings without a BAD one in that bunch (at any point in the season) Sure some HOT streaks may continue for 2 or 3 more performances. It happens! But for me, I don't need the stress that his bubble may burst that day! There's other games to look at. I can simply skip those "STREAKER" dudes until *AFTER* their inevitable BAD outing, then resume looking at his starts after that!
OBER got lucky yesterday and escaped a BAD outing.
So his HOT STREAK without a BAD outing continues on to a very tenuous 10 consecutive games.....but it's coming!
0
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
WARNING: STREAKER alert! This STARTER is riding a tenuous 9-game HOT STREAK, WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET! ...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!! OBER, Twinkies Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last long"...All GOOD pitchers will have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again. It happens to the best of them. Just CAN NOT be avoided. When??? We can't know that for certain but my stats over many years indicate the time to start to worry is when they reach SEVEN (7) consecutive outings without a BAD one in that bunch (at any point in the season) Sure some HOT streaks may continue for 2 or 3 more performances. It happens! But for me, I don't need the stress that his bubble may burst that day! There's other games to look at. I can simply skip those "STREAKER" dudes until *AFTER* their inevitable BAD outing, then resume looking at his starts after that!
OBER got lucky yesterday and escaped a BAD outing.
So his HOT STREAK without a BAD outing continues on to a very tenuous 10 consecutive games.....but it's coming!
His 7th consecutive *BAD* outing was 6 days ago v. Angels. My primary determinant in scoring an "outing" (but not the only) is the earned runs. He had ZERO! His ERA stat actually improved when done!! .... however 5 runs did score against him in just 4.0 ip as the Nats lost the game. And that friends higlights the problem with an ERA stat -- which is not always as it seems. GORE allowed a HORRIFIC 11 basreunners in only 4.0 innings...almost 3 on per inning! Incredibly BAD pitching as that is playing with fire in a room filled with oily rags! You allow people on base and that leaves open the possibility of and likely probability of errors or passed balls or balks or WP etc, to score runs, esp when allowing so many! Dreadful pitching! but his ERA improved?!?! His WHIP stat blew up way worse and that is equally if not more important in my calculations of a starter.
But, with 7 consecutive BAD outings, can we expect a reverse of the usual? Should we now consider a likelyhood of a pivot to a GOOD outing? Who knows. Maybe. He's facing the Phillies. But as a HEAVY HOME FAV a bet on the Phillies may be every bit as risky!!
I do not like uncertainties and it's not worth the risk for me...
1
This is weird.
First time I've seen this all season...
...a starter has 7 consecutive *BAD* outings!
GORE (Washington Nationals)
His 7th consecutive *BAD* outing was 6 days ago v. Angels. My primary determinant in scoring an "outing" (but not the only) is the earned runs. He had ZERO! His ERA stat actually improved when done!! .... however 5 runs did score against him in just 4.0 ip as the Nats lost the game. And that friends higlights the problem with an ERA stat -- which is not always as it seems. GORE allowed a HORRIFIC 11 basreunners in only 4.0 innings...almost 3 on per inning! Incredibly BAD pitching as that is playing with fire in a room filled with oily rags! You allow people on base and that leaves open the possibility of and likely probability of errors or passed balls or balks or WP etc, to score runs, esp when allowing so many! Dreadful pitching! but his ERA improved?!?! His WHIP stat blew up way worse and that is equally if not more important in my calculations of a starter.
But, with 7 consecutive BAD outings, can we expect a reverse of the usual? Should we now consider a likelyhood of a pivot to a GOOD outing? Who knows. Maybe. He's facing the Phillies. But as a HEAVY HOME FAV a bet on the Phillies may be every bit as risky!!
I do not like uncertainties and it's not worth the risk for me...
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And the Brewskies have a decent starter on the mound....REA has good numbers and more importantly (in my capping) has pitched well in 5 of his last 6 starts since July 01, albeit vs mediocre bats (but just one loss - exact opposite of Gavin Stone)
as they lead 7 - 0
WARNING
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