2013 MLB Over/Under Betting System(s)

Good start to MLB 2013, looking forward to your handicapping and betting strategy post.  Totals is a tough log and you have shown some good insight.

You dont have to explain your system to us, just keep doing what your doing.  Winning.  Thanks for sharing

First, I don't divulge my exact systems.  So, any questions asked about my plays will not be answered for reasons that most of you should understand.

Now let me explain a little about my handicapping and wagering style.  As you know I don't have 4, 5 6 etc., plays per day.  I post and bet on about 5 plays per week on average and I will explain why.

My systems are pretty strict which limits the amount of plays I bet on.  I flat wager to win $500 on every play that I post.  Everyone has a different amount in their bankroll so each bettor's wager amount per play will be different.  But for my example below I will use a $500 amount per play for my bankroll, $100 to win amount per play for the average "Joe Public" bankroll and a 60% win rate for example purposes. 

I know I am not perfect, none of us are, but as you can see my over/under previous plays win by a average of 3-4 runs per game.  That's because I am extremely selective with what I post and what totals I wager.  Every game I post has MY money on it also.

AVERAGE "JOE PUBLIC" BETTOR
Average line:  $110 to win $100
Amount per play:  $110
Amount of weekly bets:  20
Win/Loss record:  12-8
Win percentage:  60%
Total amount wagered:  $2,200
Total NET profit:  $320
ROI (Return on Investment):  14.55%

MY BANKROLL
Average line:  $110 to win $100
Amount per play:  $550
Amount of weekly bets:  5
Win/Loss record:  3-2
Win percentage:  60%
Total amount wagered:  $2,750
Total NET profit:  $400
ROI (Return on Investment):  14.55%


First, I used 60% for the average win rate for "Joe Public", which as we both know isn't reality as most bettors win less than that.  I am confident that I can and I have for several years actually above that but for this example that's the win rate I used.  As you can see my net profit is higher than the normal action player.  I don't need action everyday and I don't need 5 plays per day to make money.  I bet as a investment, not as a hobby.  My goal is to make money.  My goal isn't to waste money and fund my bankroll every month. 

One might say that the profit above isn't that much different than each other.  This example is for one week.  Imagine if this was for a entire month or year.  If it was the profit differential would be substantial higher in favor of my bankroll and I never have to fund my betting account like most do.

If you look at my thread for action plays you are in the wrong thread.  If you look at my thread for high quality plays and to win money for the long term you are in the correct thread.  If you are a action bettor that's fine, I don't want to change you per say, I would bet my plays for your max amount.

Again, the everage "Joe Public" bettor does not have a win rate of anywhere close to 60% and I do so the example above isn't entirely correct.  The net profit and ROI differential above is substantially higher in favor of my bankroll as compared to the average "Joe Public" bankroll.

If you have any questions about how to calculate ROI, how much to bet or any other questions please ask.

I totally agree with 858Kurt, just keep us winning Snap!

I hope you have patience......Good luck to you!

I do, all I bet in baseball is unders so I'm totally stoked for your picks!

Appreciate the discussion and analysis. But as you're aware, that 14.55% is a raw number. On an annualized basis, the standard for comparison purposes, since the result is for a one-week period, would need to be multiplied by roughly 50.

Been tailing you with the games that match mine and you're on it!!

No explanation needed; everyone has systems they develop, whether it be stat-based, situational-based, trend-based, etc., etc.  As long as you feel good about what you are playing, that's all that matters.

Everyone on this forum should remember that freedom of choice is their own....if the choose to follow/fade, then they live with their decision....if they choose to handicap the games on their own, again that's their choice.

Good luck today, Snap!

No that's not correct and I will use a 6 month sample size because that's about how long the MLB season is.  A 6 month span (26 weeks) would roughly look something like this using the numbers in my previous example:

AVERAGE "JOE PUBLIC" BETTOR
Average line:  $110 to win $100
Amount per play:  $110
Amount of 6 month bets:  520
Win/Loss record:  312-208
Win percentage:  60%
Total amount wagered:  $57,200
Total NET profit:  $8,320
ROI (Return on Investment):  14.55%

MY BANKROLL
Average line:  $110 to win $100
Amount per play:  $550
Amount of 6 month bets:  130
Win/Loss record:  78-52
Win percentage:  60%
Total amount wagered:  $71,500
Total NET profit:  $10,400
ROI (Return on Investment):  14.55%

Above, the ROI is the same but the net profit has a higher differential.

If I used a 55% win rate for the average "Joe Public" bettor and a 60% win rate my my bankroll, which is more realistic, the numbers would look something like this:


AVERAGE "JOE PUBLIC" BETTOR
Average line:  $110 to win $100
Amount per play:  $110
Amount of 6 month bets:  520
Win/Loss record:  286-234
Win percentage:  55%
Total amount wagered:  $57,200
Total NET profit:  $2,860
ROI (Return on Investment):  .05%

MY BANKROLL
Average line:  $110 to win $100
Amount per play:  $550
Amount of 6 month bets:  130
Win/Loss record:  78-52
Win percentage:  60%
Total amount wagered:  $71,500
Total NET profit:  $10,400
ROI (Return on Investment):  14.55%


It's impossible to know the exact win percentages which affect the numbers but the purpose of these two posts are to explain the benefits of playing a less amount of plays which are stronger in value than the average bettor.  I just wanted to explain my handicapping and betting strategy.  Some may agree and some may disagree and that's perfectly alright.  Hopefully everyone will have a better idea about me and my thinking.  Good luck!

Very well said, to you.

FYI:  I have 2 possible plays for tonight.  Notice I said possible.  If I decide to make a wager I will post the play(s) and if not I will also post.  Tomorrow looks like a nice, large card which should also provide me with a play or two.

I decided to combine my records/systems to make it easier for you to track and for me to post.  All plays will be combined.  As you can see my previous overall record was 8-0 and that's because I had a play on 04/02/2013 that fit two systems.  That will also allow for my records to not be inflated and they will be more accurate.  If I have a play that fits more than one of my systems or if I have a play in which conflict with more than one system I will let you know when I post the play.

Picks & Results:  7-0, 100%

04/01/2013:  SF (Cain) @ LAD (Kershaw) UNDER 6, -110 (W 4-0)
04/02/2013:  SF (Bumgarner) @ LAD (Ryu) UNDER 6.5, -110 (W 3-0)
04/04/2013:  PHI (Lee) @ ATL (Medlen) UNDER 6.5, -110 (W 2-0)
04/06/2013:  PITT (Burnett) @ LAD (Kershaw) UNDER 6, -110 (W 1-0)
04/08/2013:  951MIL (Estrada) at 952CHC (Jackson) OVER 9.5, -105 (W 7-4)
04/08/2013:  COL (De La Rosa) @ SF (Bumgarner) UNDER 6.5, -110 (W 4-2)
04/10/2013:  967TB (Moore) at 968Texas (Holland) UNDER 8.5, -115 (W 2-0)

what is the play for today man

patience 

its worth it

I may add a late play tonight...Good luck!

Picks & Results:  7-0, 100%

04/01/2013:  SF (Cain) @ LAD (Kershaw) UNDER 6, -110 (W 4-0)
04/02/2013:  SF (Bumgarner) @ LAD (Ryu) UNDER 6.5, -110 (W 3-0)
04/04/2013:  PHI (Lee) @ ATL (Medlen) UNDER 6.5, -110 (W 2-0)
04/06/2013:  PITT (Burnett) @ LAD (Kershaw) UNDER 6, -110 (W 1-0)
04/08/2013:  MIL (Estrada) at CHC (Jackson) OVER 9.5, -105 (W 7-4)
04/08/2013:  COL (De La Rosa) @ SF (Bumgarner) UNDER 6.5, -110 (W 4-2)
04/10/2013:  TB (Moore) at Texas (Holland) UNDER 8.5, -115 (W 2-0)
04/11/2013:  NY Yankees (Hughes) at Cleveland (McAllister) UNDER 8.5, -110

  BOL!!

Good luck, Snap...I like the pick too.  Just hope the game doesn't get postponed like last night.

to you also.

Snap:

You just moved the line to -120

Google search how to calculate ROI and you will better understand.  In short, ROI in sports wagering is calculated simply by taking the net winnings (or losses) and dividing by the amount invested.  You are using a compound method as used in a savings plan or deferred compensation account and that is totally different.  I flat wager and the numbers are correct.  BOL to you!

..Thanks...I wish I could move lines...