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2014 Major League Super System with write up

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Prospect
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Posted: #126
Looking for something consistent to follow, looks promising so far. Thanks for your work
 
Prospect
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Posted: #127

Gippy Nation

I am embarrassed to say I again somehow made another "human error" in my betting in both the Rock League and Champ League. I meant to bet 80 on White sox but in my haste bet 80 on the cubs who were already out of the match. I also bet the wrong amount in the Champ League and bet !0 on the reds which should have been a $5 bet. UGHHHHH!

I have so screwed up my Match 1 that I am calling my Match 1 which is still profitable in both leagues and I am going to start over tomorrow with a Match 2 beginning again with all 30 teams. If you are not committing one betting error after another like me, then continue on until you finish your match or start running out of teams then start a match 2 accordingly. I would be way ahead if I could just quit getting my bets in wrong!. If there is a bright side we are adding to our data base daily on each team"s record as a dog.... so going down to the bottom level of bet sizing at this stage is not all bad news, especially with my bonehead errors.

I begin Match 2 tomorrow and will post my Match 1 results with all its comedy of errors at the end of the week

Good Luck

 
Prospect
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Posted: #128

If you are new and just want to get started with the super system now is a perfect time to start. You will be betting with me as I start a new match

Match 2

Champ League

1. Sd (game 1) 5/6

2. twins 5/5

3. CWSX 5/6.75

4. Tex 5/6.50

5. PHI 5/5.50

6. hou 5/8.25

7. Bal 5/8.25

8. 5/6

9. 5/5.25

10. Ariz5/6.50

check and double check

Good Luck

 
Prospect
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Posted: #129

there I go again

8. Mets 5/6

9. Cubs 5./5.25

 
Prospect
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Posted: #130
HELLO GIPPY NATION
All I can say if you are a follower you are winner. I could only hope for competitive games this early in the season and the handicappers must be pulling their hair out. Not a single gippy dog has yet to lose 6 in a row. I admit Match 1 was prematurely ended by me due to my own betting miscues but so far I have been able to get all my bets in correctly in both leagues, in Match 2 . I suspect by next weekend we will have many teams that have reached the first significant statistical sample of 12 games as a dog. Houston, Twins, and Arizona are right on the cusp. On the other hand Boston hasnt been a dog yet, and Detroit only one time. So that should mean Detroit and Boston are undefeated right? HAHA! NOT!

Handicapper mistakes mean$ for this super system. I will post each match game by game results when each Match is completed.
For now :

Match 2 results YTD

Rock League +62.50

Today's card

Col 10/12
Pitt 10/14
Nats 10/11
San Diego 10/12

Champ League +26 (Match 2)


Good Luck
 
Prospect
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Posted: #131
Match 2 
Rock League Card
Pitt 2023
Seattle 10/11.30
Tampa Bay 10/11.90
San diego 20/28
Miami 20/23.20
Cleveland 20/23

Champ League

San diego 20
Miami 20
Clev 10
Pitt 20
Tamp Bay 5
Atlanta 5
 
Prospect
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Posted: #132

Dog Ranking update

# teams have past the first significant statistical level of sample siz that being 12 games as a dog . Other teams are getting close. What kind of information does this give us about a team at this point. to be honest not a lot but if you go back and read terh thread this sample size tells us its more likely than not that a team will continue to perform at th esame level. Lets look at what we have:

1. Houston (13 games) WLLLWLLLLWLWL (.3076)

The Astros are winning at a clip of about 30% as a dog which is borderline. The good news is they have never lost more than 4 in a row as a dog which is actually more important. If we had a streak of 7 losses in a row it would be on my radar, but for now they are ok

2. Twins (13 games) LLWLWWLLLLWWW (.4615)

The Twins have one 4 game losing streak but otherwise are making us money. I like the recent pattern of 3 wins in a row. This is the kind of team that is making us the $ so far

3. Arizona (12 games) LLLLLWLWWLLL (.25)

The Arizona diamondbacks are not playing well as a dog. I also don't like that 5 game losing streak to start the season. The kind of team that will get eliminated if they don't pick it up. They are below our Gippy Mendoza line of .30

No other teams have hit 12 games but others are close. Should have more by the weekend. Of note Atlanta is 5-0 as a dog.and Miami is 0-5 as a dog.

Stay tuned, it will only get better and better

Good Luck

 
Prospect
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Posted: #133
Dear Gippy Followers
If you read my thread comments you know that I dont care about individual games. Im betting a system that will win over time. today is an exception, and probably one of the few times all year Ill be sweating a game. Why? Its early in the year and I dont have a lot of sample data yet to rely on. My premise is the handicappers cant predict a dog correctly 6 times in a row and if they can then I dont want to play that team or over time stats show they just dont win as a dog on a consistent basis, and I wont wager on them..
Today in both leagues I have the Marlins. They started out the year looking ok and have since lost their last 8. To start the season they have lost all 6 games as a dog. Yet as I look today on my spread sheet they are a play as the 5th game in my Match 2 . I have 160 on the line in my Rock Match and 80 on the line in the champ League. I have no data to suggests they can win today and if they lose I will probably suspend them from Match 2 and not play them in a big money game 6. I will start them at the bottom in Match 3 and see how they progress as we gather more sample data. Probably team we wont play at all after the all star break but honestly too early to tell.
Rock League
Atlanta 10/13.50 (love this play ...undefeated as a dog)
Miami 160
Cleveland 40/54

Champ league
Atlanta 5/6
Cleveland 20/27
Miami 80/124
Good Luck
 
Prospect
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Posted: #134
First sweat of the year. Go Marlins. Looking good!
 
Prospect
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Posted: #135
I dont know why I ever doubt the system. Ive seen it over and over in backtesting. Its just hard for handicappers to be right 6 games in a row. The Marlins  pulled  it out for us. I have only a couple of teams who have games to play in my Match today, so I will continue on until Match 2 is completely done but it may be a while because Boston, Detroit etc are rarely dogs. Therefore I am officially declaring Match 3 beginning tomorrow as teams finish in Match 2 they will go to the bottom rung in Match3, until they are eliminated.
Slowly but surely the bankroll builds up. It was sort of fun to sweat a game again.
Good Luck
 
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Posted: #136
You got me intrigued. Haven't tailed the system yet but it's getting more interesting each week. Good luck for the long haul.
Question: is this system in full swing or does it have better percentages deeper into the season?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #137

We are tracking data on each team as a dog whether we are playing them or not. Around the all star break we will have a large enough statistical sample for most teams to know whether we want to include them in our matches are not.

As it turns out we are crushing the books at this point. Match 1 is over and was profitable. Match 2 is profitable but we began running out of teams so we started a Match 3, yesterday. the dogs played great again

After the allstar break we will expect to know who plays well as a dog and who doesn't.

A 44 games sample will give us a 90 percent accuracy result on the odds of a team losing 6 in a row as a dog. We will also have raw data on any team that lost 6 in a row as a dog.

I will be increasing my bet sizing at that point

Good Luck

 
Prospect
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Posted: #138
Gippy Nation
I am putting out my first Gippy alert. I am playing the Astros today as a 5th game in each of my match's. They are a train wreck and are 4-16 so far as a dog this year. A 20% winning percentage which is way below the Gippy Mendoza line. If they lose today they will will be 4-17 and just aren't playable until further notice. Some teams are so bad they can be predictable. Let see if they can win today as a huge dog and if so will play them in Match 4 at the lowest level as we continue to track them and other teams records as dogs. By next weekend should have a good sample size to post, and likely will be posting updates in all matches
Good Luck
 
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Posted: #139
Houston is 5-14 for the year. They have been dogs in every game so far. Where are you getting "4-16 so far as a dog" reference? And yes, they are bad but nowhere near as bad as last year. They can't hit. Their pitching has not been that bad as evidenced by two 1-0 losses at Texas. Only a couple of games have been blowouts. Their new pitching coach has done a good job with what he inherited.

Good Luck.
 
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Posted: #140
"Its just hard for handicappers to be right 6 games in a row."

Congrats on the Astros win last night. We were lucky with the timing of our match. As you know, they had lost 7 in a row as a dog overall. A different start game, and we would be singing a different tune.

Good Luck.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #141
Hello Lucky
Yes that is true. Even though they had lost 7 in a row as a actual dog, you have to keep in mind what a gippy dog is. Even money or better. also in some cases my books might not have then as a dog even though they show as a dog on covers. In any event I dont know why I doubt the system. Backtesting tells me that even the stinkers manage to pull off the upset just when it looks like they will lose forever and when they win the the payoff is huge. 
It was a game five in my Rock League Match 3. It was 80/192. In champ League it was a game 4 in Match 3, or 40/82. Nice in any event as I build my bankroll.  Its just hard to criticize success. I doubt it myself sometimes, but you just have to keep at it, until you have a 44 game sample.. I was about to pull the plug on Miami last week after losing 8 straight.....then boom... they win. I was crying about the Astros losers of 7 straight, threatning to bar them til further notice.... then boom, a left hook on the left coast. Maybe a gippy threat is all it takes.
Another interesting thing is our dog chart is really building in numbers. Many teams are building a large data base, i.e. Houston, Cubs, twins, white sox, Phi, mets, Balt, ariz,  On the other hand we rarely see a play on Det, Boston, Tampa, or oakland. As good as Oakland is this year they are 0-3 as a dog. another thing back testing as taught me is good teams are sometimes they worst as a dog. I hoping to give my first full dog ranking of all teams having at least 12 games as a dog this weekend. wee have so many dogs in the winners circle we are running out of games to play so I may strat a Match 4 tomorrow or the next day as we paly out Matches 2 and 3 til the end.
Our sparse plays today
Rock League
Mets 20/30- Match 3
Twins 40/68-Match 3
Tex 20/28- Match 2

Champ League

Mets 10/14
Tex 10/14
Good Luck

There is a good article called Systematic Decision Making by Wesley r. Gray , PHD
AAII Journal. 
Its about investing but the principals are the same as we use here

 
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Posted: #142
Why are the Twins a 40/68 play today? They won on 4/20 as a +160 dog vs KC.

GL
 
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Posted: #143
Even if you did play MN last night, why would you settle for a +170 line with your local guy? Your offshore book Brovado? (post 59), had at least +190 to +210 like most other offshore books. You lost out as well on the Mets on Monday night as they were + money with your offshore book. Shopping for the best money line is essential for success in baseball, especially if you want to be around in August and September.

GL
 
Prospect
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Posted: #144
I agree and I admit I could get better lines by shopping around. For now at this level I just go with the locals. by the way its time to start a Match 4 in both leagues. The gippy daily dogs are winning so much I cant find a game today. So..Its a good time to start if you are new to the system. Bet all the dogs that are even money are better. Started Match 4 in champ league yesterday. I will hope to give spreadsheet updates on the weekend. If your lowest unit is 10 your highest level unit  will be 320, i.e. my Rock League.
good Luck
 
Prospect
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Posted: #145
Interesting article on MLB covers about early season observation, from one of the covers experts. He list the top net unit teams, as Milwaukee, Oakland, and Atlanta.
Two of these three are also the top two gippy dog teams that being Atlanta and Milwaukee. Atlanta is 6 out of 7 as a dog and so are the brewers if you are wondering that is 85.7 %clip. Oakland oddly enough is 0-3, which is not good although a small sample size. so what have we learned so far?. 
Atlanta and Milwaukee are solid dog teams. Toronto is 5-3 and has not lost more than 2 in a row as a dog. Baltimore is 7-8 as a dog but have never lost more than 2 in a row ( a profitable trait.) The other teams who have yet to lose 2 in a row
St,. Louis
LAD
Det (only a dog once and lost)
Nats 3-2
Bostone 0-2
NYY 4-4
KC 1-4 
Cleveland 3-4
SF 3-2
SD 5-6
Colorodo 3-3

What does that mean?. If they have played significant number of games and have not lost more tha 2 in a row, they are banking $$$$$$$$$ for us. Also of note are the Mets, and Rangers.... they lost their first 3 in a row as a dog but have not lost more than 2 in a row since. We are starting to see a pattern of about 15-20  teams we can count on to never bust our bankroll in a game 6 match. By the Allstar break I will know for sure and my books will be running for cover when I up the ante with confidence. There are other teams like the twins and cubs who have been consistent of late and making us some $.also Phil has been hot lately although they had a 3 game losing streak. 
The covers expert list Bottom net teams as Arizona, Houston, and teh Cubs.
I couldnt agree more with Arizona what a wreck!...... 5-13 as a dog, with one 5 game streak , a four game streak and a 3 game streak. definitely a team you cant trust. Houston is the same 6-16 as a dog with 7 and 4 game streak , ouch. Pure luck that these teams have won at critical times for us. Looks like they will have to be dropped, but not for now. He also list the cubs. For us as a dog they are  3-9 as a dog. with a 4 game streak. The streaking teams bother me.Miami lost it first 6 as a dog. LAA has lost 4 of 5. The reds have two 3 game streaks.. Tampa is like Oakland a good team but 0-3 as a dog. 
All we can do is continue to observe and evaluate until we have the data
Good Luck
 
Rookie
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Posted: #146
Quote Originally Posted by Luckydan:

Why are the Twins a 40/68 play today? They won on 4/20 as a +160 dog vs KC.

GL



????
 
Veteran
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Posted: #147
Great info Gippy. Atl and mil to the house when dogs
 
Prospect
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Posted: #148
Gippy sorry for my stupidity, been trying to figure out your system. am i correct in sayin we only bet dogs if they have previously lost as a dog. and they are a top 15 team? sorry again for my ignorance. if u could maybe explain to me like im a 3yr old....lol

 
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Posted: #149
Quote Originally Posted by MasterGippy22:

I agree and I admit I could get better lines by shopping around. For now at this level I just go with the locals. by the way its time to start a Match 4 in both leagues. The gippy daily dogs are winning so much I cant find a game today. So..Its a good time to start if you are new to the system. Bet all the dogs that are even money are better. Started Match 4 in champ league yesterday. I will hope to give spreadsheet updates on the weekend. If your lowest unit is 10 your highest level unit  will be 320, i.e. my Rock League.
good Luck


Please clarify as to when you started Match 4 in both leagues.

GL
 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #150
I started Match 4 in Rock League yesterday and Match 4 in Champ League 2 days ago

Art
Simple version. pLAY ALL 30 TEAMS FOR NOW.If you are starting today you would start your match 1. Bet all dogs that even money or better. If Boston is -105 against the Yanks -125, you dont play Boston. Its fundamental rule number 1. NEVER PAY JUICE. WE ARE PAID JUICE
If your team wins they are eliminated from Match 1. You dont play them again til you start a Match 2. If your team loses you double the bet on them the NEXT TIME THEY ARE A DOG. YOU CONTNUE ON UNTIL THEY WIN (then they are out of the match) OR YOU GET TO A GAME 6. iF THEY LOSE game 6 YOU STOP, AND THAT TEAM GOES TO THE BOTTOM of your next Match.

How do you know when to start a new Match? When you run out of teams to play. I am now playing 4 matches simultaneously including my original Match 1. Detroit has been a dog once all year. Boston a couple of times. Some teams are rarely a play because handicappers are afraid to make them a dog. some teams are dogs everyday.
If I say not to play a team in any match then dont play them. I am on the verge of eliminated Houston and Arizona but not yet.
Good Luck
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