2014 Major League Super System with write up

I would never consider any team a dog if there is a -- in front of the betting  number. I adhere to your criteria 100%.

GL

Love

I'll send you my picks when I start Match 5 which will be this week

Mg

Gippy Nation

If you ever heard the expression "put your money with your mouth is" then I have just placed my wagers, accordingly. I'm not saying I'm going to win, I may not, but we all know my basic premise by now....the handicappers cant get it right 6 times in a row. They havnt done it all year but they get their chance tomorrow. After crying about "no action" and thinking I needed to start a match 5, I have my plate full tomorrow. So what if I lose the infamous big money game 6, am I doomed to failure? No my friends .....it just means I have collected valuable data........the kind I will use when I am putting up life changing money, after the all star break.. If I lose a Match the handicappers have bested me and I say good game my friends...and if you beat me again ...well I just don't try to beat the books with certain teams anymore and I go on and pick up the easy pickings. If the books can show me they can pick a team correctly as a dog over and over then do I continue to get off the canvas? No.... and so it goes...

LOOK AT THIS ACTION TOMORROW(im not separating which match it is just which league and the wager) WISH ME LUCK!

ROCK LEAGUE

NYM 10/14

Atl 10/11

Mil 10/14 (best of the best)

Seattle 10/15

Tampa Bay 20/28

Tor 10/12

Cle 80/104

Pitt 320/368.......Go bucs (sweat glands activated)

 

CHAMP LEAGUE

CLEVAND 160/192 (HOW DID THEY GET ME HERE)..game 6 money ball

Sea 20/32

Pitt 160/184

Atl 5/5.50

Tamp Bay 5/7.50

Toronto 5/6

 

 

 

 

 

Once again, I would question your book's numbers as well as your record keeping with respect to Cleveland. Tonight should be a game 4.
They won as a dog on 4/16, lost on 4/17, won on 4/20, lost on 4/25,4/26 and last night.

GL

Thanks for the info gippy. While most passed on brew crew last night, I rode the +150 to victory. Will parlay brew and braves tonight. Cheers

Dan

You maybe right.. I have Cleveland as a winner in the Rock League on Game 3 of Match 2, however my Champ League book did not have the Indians as a dog that day. Only had plays on nats and pirates. Again I can't rule out betting error on my part, something I continue to work on.

I also checked champ league on 4/20 and did not have a play on Cleveland. Assuming they were not a dog for me

Rock league

Cleveland was a winner on 4-16 but not a play for me on 4-20

I'm pretty sure the miss on the 4-16;....champ league was bettor error because Cleveland was a solid dog. Bookkeeping is essential. The biggest weakness I have but I am getting better. The wide spread sheets help keep it out in front of you

Mg

 

Bucs/O's rainout tonight.

GL

Arghhhhh!

Geronimo costume instead..... Go Tribe!

Cleland was a blow and takes them out of champ league match 2. In our Rock League they are a game 5 $160 wager. All the covers experts are recommending Law tonight. What does our data say about the Indians? 3-8 as a dog and below the hippy Mendoza line. They are underachievers and easy to cap yet I'll leave them in and make a decision about banning them soon. Looks like you just can't trust them. Similarly the Pirates are 3-7as a dog and if they cost us our big money games tonight they are below the hippy Mendoza line and may be banished. Underachievers and easy to cap. Can't let them cost me my bankroll so we shall see if they can avoid banishment. I'm making the call and officially make the guppy threat as to both teams

Good luck

  Big money game Pitt Game 1.

GL

Guppy Nation

Well Cleveland didn't even show up last night. I think it is time to start using our valuable data. Cleveland has now played 12 games as a dog and are 3-9. 12 games is a significant sample size even though there is a 25% margin of error,, we know this is what you can expect of this team. They are below our .30 standard and I am cutting them from all future matches til further notice.

Pittsburgh is up today as a big money game 6. They have played 11 games as a dog, one short of our sample size of significance. In covers tracking they are 3-8 or .27 as a dog, yet ill be putting them up blindly today in my champ league. I have to ask myself if this is a smart decision?. I have already put in my Champ card which reads like this

Tampa Bay 10/14

Pitt 160/168

Seattle 5/6.50

KC 80/80

Now onto the Rock League

I have already put in Tampa Bay 40/54......but what about Pitt? Do I  want to put up $320 on a team that has won 2 out of it last 10 as a dog? They play a double header today so I'm going to pass on game 1. I may play game 2  but if they lose I'm probably going to cut them til further notice. I don't consider this a compromise just a practical use of my data collection and just common sense.

Mg

Gippy Nation

I think is time we started using our data to help us formulate strategy going forward as I expect to start a Match 5 possibly as early as tomorrow. We have collected a good deal of information on many teams and its time to start using that info. A twelve game sample sizes is significant , and a 44 game sample is very significant in plotting who we can count on in our matches. Each team is like a player I am using against the oddsmakers over a six game stretch. They need to win at a clip of at least 30% or more or they are not playable. There are several teams over a 12 game sample size so lets look at winning percentage as a dog and trends as far as streaks. I don't care how good a team they are just how they play as a dog. Lets examine the teams we have the most info on down to the least and see if we need to adjust who we play in our matches.

1. Houston

9-21 record as dog. They have won 5 out of their last 12 and had a seven game losing streak. They are right on the cut line of .30.....Borderline

2. Twins 13-15 as a dog. A .46 win rate They had one 4 game losing streak but trending fine lately. They have been a player making the money for us.

3. Chi white sox 11-16 as a dog and a win rate of .40. They lost 3 in a row lately but never more than 3 in a row all year. I'm playnnthem

4. Miami .26 but trending better lately(borderline)

5. Cubs .35 won last 3 as a dog

6.Phi is .50 as dog and never lost 3 in a row ($)

7. Rockies are .58 as a dog and never lost more than 2 in a row ($)

8. San Diego .45 (kachink)

9. Mets .52 as a dog ($)

10.Arizona .31......borderline

Those are our largest sample sizes but there are others with fewer games that bother me more

Pittsburgh (.25)

 3-9 as a dog and lost 6 out of 7. Cut them now before they hurt you further and don't play them in any match til further notice

Cleveland .25

3-9 as a dog and lost 5 straight. They are unplayable and until further notice do not play

Kansas City (.22)

They have only 9 games as a  dog butdon't like what I'm seeing ( borderline)

This weekend I hope to have a dog ranking one through thirty. Be prepared for me to make a don't play call on all borderline teams mentioned above.

Good Luck

Bg

 

 

5. Cubs .35 won last 3 as a dog


Appreciate the breakdown, but double check the Cubs comment. Here are their last 5 as a dog:

GL

04/30/14	@ CIN	W 9-4	Edwin Jackson (R)	Tony Cingrani (L)	W 158	O 7.5 101
04/29/14	@ CIN	L 2-3	Jeff Samardzija (R)	Alfredo Simon (R)	L 121	U 7.5 -116
04/27/14	@ MIL	W 4-0	Jason Hammel (R)	Wily Peralta (R)	W 131	U 7.5 -112
04/26/14	@ MIL	L 3-5	Travis Wood (L)	Marco Estrada (R)	L 146	O 7.5 -119
04/25/14	@ MIL	L 2-5	Carlos Villanueva (R)	Matt Garza (R)	L 156	U 8 -102

I stand corrected. I hope to have time to go back and double check. Appreciate any help I can get

Posted: 3/1/2014 4:13:12 PM

I am starting a new system which I expect to be the most profitable formula ever. It is a system that requires no thinking just betting based on my tracking system. My minimum unit is $5 and my max will be $160 aka big money bets. Feel free to do your own back testing or follow along. We will bet everyday as follows: We will use the most reliable power rankings available for all teams. We will only bet a team in the top 15. My research indicates that is where the big drop off begins. If a team starts off in the top 15 but at the end of our match is out we will not include them in our next round of betting which I will call "matches." We are betting not so such much on the teams but that the books will get a good team wrong 1 out of every 6 times they are listed as a dog.  We only bet teams that are dogs are even money in the top 15.

This was your first post. Chances are you spent a lot of time on it before you pushed submit. It made sense, and I was curious about it. Today we are all over the place with different criteria on what is a play, and what isn't. Why? You have 25+ games to get a good guage on who the top 15 teams are. There are a number of respected ratings to consult with. It just seems that you are pushing the panic button because of what Cleveland and Pittsburgh have done recently. I may be missing something but what you are doing now seems foreign to what your original intentions were.

OMO

GL

I would say that is unfair criticism just because if you follow everything Ive said it has been an ongoing tweaking of a very good original idea. I started out without consulting a mathematician or doing any back testing. I completely changed my mind on the top 15 concept based on back testing and clearly stated so. I think eventually we will end up with a group of teams we can count on not to let us down and there will be some not in the top rankings. I may not get to play Detroit all year! Go back and read what I said about sample size. 12 games is significant. Pitt,Clev,and KC aren't cutting it. I would rather bet the cubs in a match. I could change my mind after tracking them for a while and call them up into a new match. I'm just using data presented to me to make a rational decision. If you blindly bet without considering how they are playing as a dog then why bother to keep up with it. The more games I see these 3 play the better I will feel about playing them. There are 28 teams still in play.I may cut KC but still have 27 in play. Its kind of like having 30 players to play in a match. Who has the best statistics. Who is hot? I appreciate your constructive criticism but this system will always be a work in progress until perfected

Mg

No need to start a Match 5 yet because lots of action across the board today. Even have a play on Detroit. I don't have to make a call on KC because they are a favorite today, but if I play them its a big money game 6 in the Champ League.

We are now playing 28 teams and have cut Pitt and Cleveland but we will continue to track them

Mg

Gippy Nation

I have been promising my complete dog rankings and this may be a good time to list our team in order. If the team has an asterick they have not played more than 12 games as a dog, and the percentage may not mean much, however any team owith over 12 games gives us good insight in how this team will perform as a dog. You have to keep in mind that I am looking for teams I can count on with virtual mathematical certainty not to lose 6 games in a row as a dog. If they have played 12 games I am 75% certain from that sample size they will not let me down. When I see 44 game samples  I will be 90% sure and that's when we turn the heat up. Each team to me is like a player. I am betting that my team of players will fool the oddsmakers one out of 6 times or play above their heads one out of 6. We want as many teams as possible and you cant be too picky or you wont have any action. Some teams are almost never a dog like Detroit and Boston. The Gippy Mendoza line of .30 is a good rule of thumb, and if they have a winning percentage below that you cant count on them. Anything close to .30 is borderline. We also look at streaks,. If a team wins 6 in a row as a dog and then losses 8 in a row they are not much good to us and cant be trusted. If a team has the same win percentage the team that has played the most games is ranked higher. If they have the same games and same percentage we rank the team that is less streaky higher.

Without further ado:

1 Milwaukee (.75)

2. *Atlanta (.75)

3. *San Francisco (.72)

4. *St. Louis (.60)

5. *Nationals (.60)

6. Rockies (.57)

7. Baltimore (.55)

8. Texas (.54)

9. Phi (.50)

10. Toronto (.50)

11. *Dodgers (.50)

12. *Detroit (.50)

13. Mets (.48)

14. Seattle (.47)

15. Yanks (.47)

16. Minnesota (.45)

17. San Diego (.45)

18. White Sox (.40)

19. Miami (.39)

20. Arizona (.35)

21. *Angels (.34)

22. *Oak (.34)

23. *Tampa Bay (.34)

24. Houston (.33)

25. *Boston (.33)

26. Cinncinatti (.31)

27. Cubs (.30)

28. Cleveland (.25)

29. Pitt (.23)

30. *K..C. (.20)

There you have it. Now I was recently criticized for alerting all to not play Pittsburgh and Cleveland as if I was making an emotional decision because Cleveland had cost me a big money game. Emotion has nothing to do with this system. Kansas city is probably going to get the axe and the only reason they are not cut is because they technically have played only 10 games as a dog., but you can see where the trend is heading. They might win there next two so I am keeping them in for now but reluctantly so. There are just so many better teams to play in our matches., it just seems like an unnecessary risk given our data.

In the end the data suggest pretty much what I thought we would be able to count on the top 15-18  teams, and by that I mean top 15 when playing as a dog.

Good Luck and I will keep you posted when to start a Match 5.

MG

Streaks

The only team I consider an anomaly in the above group is Seattle. They won 4 out of 5 to start the year, then lost 7 in a row, and now they have won 3 in a row. That's a 16 game sample but a team I don't know if I can trust, Houston also had a 7 game streak and Miami had a 6 game losing streak to start the season. Its the other X factor we have to look at. Whe I have a larger sample thes trend may be meaningful and they may not

I will be starting a Match 5 tomorrow. If you are just now starting with the system this will be an ideal time to begin. If you ask for picks I will be sending them via email until you get the hang of what we are doing. We have two leagues which represent th two books I use called the Champ League 5 min and 160 max. the Rock League is $10 min and $320 max. based on the data I have already made a no play call on Cleveland and Pittsburgh. I am debating cutting KC, but have not made the call. The Pirates and Indians have probably cost  me my match 2 by both losing big money game 6's, in the Champ League, although its not over.

CHAMP LEAGUE

The Champ League will start as normal tomorrow in Match 5 except no Pitt or clev and possibly no KC. 

ROCK LEAGUE (Select)

In the Rock League I am going to play Match 5 with a twist. I am going to pick 10 teams who have played at least 12 games as a dog with the exception of Atlanta, and of course are not still playing in other matches. I am also going to up the ante and say that I believe these teams will not lose 5 games in a row. My minimum bet will be $15 and max bet $240. The teams I have selected are the top ten teams who have the highest winning percentage as a dog and have not been in long losing streaks. It is a reason I eliminated seattle. If we win the team is eliminated from the match  and if we lose we double the bet the next time they are dogs up to a big money game 5. I expect this match to be fast and furious.

MG

My select teams are

1. Milwaukee

2. Rockies

3. Baltimore

4. Texas

5. Philadelphis

6. Mets

7. Yankees

8. Minnesota

9. San Diego

10. Atlanta

Gippy Nation

Do not play Kansas city until further notice. We are playing 27 teams but not KC< Pitt, and Cleveland

Rock Select League Match 5(new match)

Mets 15/17

Phi 15/17

Milwaukee 15/15

MG