Interesting day yesterday...had SD & STL...both cashed and both lost fullgame, one in the 9th inning and the other in extra innings.
Yes...I know that happens in reverse also; but to only pick 2 games and have both of them justify (to the Nth degree) why playing 5 innings is so far superior to a fullgame bet is solidly coincidental.
Just for statistical honesty....there is no real pattern to a loss that would have been a win (if fullgame) or vice-versa...the REAL plus to the 5-inning bet is the PUSH....my numbers show that a push would have become a loss almost 75% of the time (playing visiting teams is the key to that number)....SO, getting your money back in a 3-1 ratio is severly important to the long-term gambler....and that, to me, is the beauty of the 5-inning bet....It's just yesterday was really sweet.
Today...gotta take the car into the shop for some work, so not able to do much capping on all the early games....I do have 2 solid leans that I would probably post as picks...
CIN w/Arroyo (pitching much better lately)
SEA w/the King...BOS winning; but not hitting much, Felix can shut them down with K's and give SEA a chance to score a little.
HOpe to get back...to do some work on the late games.....
MrO
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Interesting day yesterday...had SD & STL...both cashed and both lost fullgame, one in the 9th inning and the other in extra innings.
Yes...I know that happens in reverse also; but to only pick 2 games and have both of them justify (to the Nth degree) why playing 5 innings is so far superior to a fullgame bet is solidly coincidental.
Just for statistical honesty....there is no real pattern to a loss that would have been a win (if fullgame) or vice-versa...the REAL plus to the 5-inning bet is the PUSH....my numbers show that a push would have become a loss almost 75% of the time (playing visiting teams is the key to that number)....SO, getting your money back in a 3-1 ratio is severly important to the long-term gambler....and that, to me, is the beauty of the 5-inning bet....It's just yesterday was really sweet.
Today...gotta take the car into the shop for some work, so not able to do much capping on all the early games....I do have 2 solid leans that I would probably post as picks...
CIN w/Arroyo (pitching much better lately)
SEA w/the King...BOS winning; but not hitting much, Felix can shut them down with K's and give SEA a chance to score a little.
HOpe to get back...to do some work on the late games.....
Ditto on the push factor, even though that 75% might be a bit high from my end.
I'm only playing one 5 inning play, mostly because I'm doing an inordinate amount of 9 inn overs. Because of the overs, I didn't take KC & COL in 5. That and I think only one of those hits, if that.
Ditto on the push factor, even though that 75% might be a bit high from my end.
I'm only playing one 5 inning play, mostly because I'm doing an inordinate amount of 9 inn overs. Because of the overs, I didn't take KC & COL in 5. That and I think only one of those hits, if that.
panama.....I know; but is LA gonna hit?....very inconsistent team and COL does like to score runs.....not worth the risk as the visiting team even though Glendon Rusch is...well, Glendon Rusch.
I do want to add another game...and substract that CIN lean....gonna ride the CC Train one 'mo time. If MIL was at home, this would be a -190 to -200 game, regardless of how well STL is playing....I'm gonna play -1/2 runline on this one and expect CC to hole STL in check....
So, today:
SEA with the King holding down BOS bats for the first couple of times through the lineup...
MIL with the CC Train rolling through StLoo..
Let's talk.....
MrO
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panama.....I know; but is LA gonna hit?....very inconsistent team and COL does like to score runs.....not worth the risk as the visiting team even though Glendon Rusch is...well, Glendon Rusch.
I do want to add another game...and substract that CIN lean....gonna ride the CC Train one 'mo time. If MIL was at home, this would be a -190 to -200 game, regardless of how well STL is playing....I'm gonna play -1/2 runline on this one and expect CC to hole STL in check....
So, today:
SEA with the King holding down BOS bats for the first couple of times through the lineup...
Personally I'm on the LA/Rocks under 6 for the first 5. If this things hits over I beleive the Rocks are going to have to do it pretty much thierselves
GL
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Personally I'm on the LA/Rocks under 6 for the first 5. If this things hits over I beleive the Rocks are going to have to do it pretty much thierselves
MrOPC... was on the Red Sox 1st 5 the last 2 nights... but I think you are on the right side tonight. Buccholz has not had a good start since returning from the DL as teams have gotten to him early.
The only reason I will not pull the trigger on the Mariners 1st 5 is because how poor the Mariners offense has been. Last night they scored their first 2 runs in the last 21 innings played. Red Sox have big bats and all it takes is a swing or two for the game to be out of Seattle's reach.
GL
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MrOPC... was on the Red Sox 1st 5 the last 2 nights... but I think you are on the right side tonight. Buccholz has not had a good start since returning from the DL as teams have gotten to him early.
The only reason I will not pull the trigger on the Mariners 1st 5 is because how poor the Mariners offense has been. Last night they scored their first 2 runs in the last 21 innings played. Red Sox have big bats and all it takes is a swing or two for the game to be out of Seattle's reach.
woop...I don't disagree with that analysis....I'm looking at the line, see Vegas really expects SEA to be competitive in this one with King pitching against Bucholz...BOS bats have been a little "light" on the road....they should win the game; but gotta love King's K's recently....I'm not gonna play many losing teams in the second half; but if I see dominance vs weakness (Felix vs Clay), then, to me..that's a double dipper and worth the risk....
Lipps & Hot....I just can't advise playing totals in 5-inning bets...I see it as a pure prop bet and, as I have said before, the starts really have to be totally aligned...either good or bad, both sides have to be equal...for a total to hit; whereas, when playing a side, you are looking for a lopsided advantage, much less goes into the success of a side than a total...just my opinion; but gotta stick to it...wishing you luck always....and thx for coming into the thread again.....
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woop...I don't disagree with that analysis....I'm looking at the line, see Vegas really expects SEA to be competitive in this one with King pitching against Bucholz...BOS bats have been a little "light" on the road....they should win the game; but gotta love King's K's recently....I'm not gonna play many losing teams in the second half; but if I see dominance vs weakness (Felix vs Clay), then, to me..that's a double dipper and worth the risk....
Lipps & Hot....I just can't advise playing totals in 5-inning bets...I see it as a pure prop bet and, as I have said before, the starts really have to be totally aligned...either good or bad, both sides have to be equal...for a total to hit; whereas, when playing a side, you are looking for a lopsided advantage, much less goes into the success of a side than a total...just my opinion; but gotta stick to it...wishing you luck always....and thx for coming into the thread again.....
You can Parlay a 5-inning bet with a soccer match in Italy if you want to....just a great recreational betting site....
That's why I use my book for baseball season, cause I can parlay with Oz rugby league. Their rugby - NRL - releases odds on Wednesday. That way I can cherry pick 1-2 MLB games a day and tack em on to 1 or 2 league matches a week. That way, one can pile up 3-7 MLB ML winners with a single match.
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Quote Originally Posted by MrOPC:
You can Parlay a 5-inning bet with a soccer match in Italy if you want to....just a great recreational betting site....
That's why I use my book for baseball season, cause I can parlay with Oz rugby league. Their rugby - NRL - releases odds on Wednesday. That way I can cherry pick 1-2 MLB games a day and tack em on to 1 or 2 league matches a week. That way, one can pile up 3-7 MLB ML winners with a single match.
Mr O,I had liked the game under in the Colo.game,but instead went for the 5 inning under,now would be happy with a push,lol
starting to believe on no 5 inning totals,but if you like the game to go under,isnt it the same thing as taking the bullpens out of the game? Ive lost a couple of 5 inning totals last couple of weeks,but thanks to you nothing major,but sides seem to hit easier.
Went on Seattle with you,they seem to score runs early for Feliz,GL
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Mr O,I had liked the game under in the Colo.game,but instead went for the 5 inning under,now would be happy with a push,lol
starting to believe on no 5 inning totals,but if you like the game to go under,isnt it the same thing as taking the bullpens out of the game? Ive lost a couple of 5 inning totals last couple of weeks,but thanks to you nothing major,but sides seem to hit easier.
Went on Seattle with you,they seem to score runs early for Feliz,GL
Like Felix first 5 in this one..As a Red Sox fan I know that Buckholtz is struggling on the road..Hernandez facing a lifeless Sox team right now and no Manny...I'm really liking first five..
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Like Felix first 5 in this one..As a Red Sox fan I know that Buckholtz is struggling on the road..Hernandez facing a lifeless Sox team right now and no Manny...I'm really liking first five..
JEG...Let me explain (and it's only my opinion)....
When you are capping a game to pick a side, the premise is dominance vs weakness. Looking for a SP with a strong recent control groove facing an SP with a decided control groove that has gone "South"...I also look at the relative strengths and weaknesses of each offense vs the "arm" of the opposing SP and take into account recent success or lack of it by each team.
BUT....the premise is the focal starting point, the other aspects can be somewhat more subjective than objective...which is why I always ask for opinions/analysis/thoughts and not just stats.
In capping a total, rather than look for dominance vs weakness, you are looking for "sameness"....either both pitchers to be dominant or weak vs both offenses to be either weak or dominant.
You are increasing the factors that you look at in order to pick a total and, more importantly, you are relying on more accuracy because of those factors.
Vegas knows that the total bet is tougher and that's why you have, for the most part, better juice on the bet...to get you to make the bet....much like a prop bet.
The reason that I look at totals is to get a professional's opinion as to the matchup. Las Vegas Sports Consultants sends out the opening line (juice) along with the total (although in some parks..like Chicago, they wait to confirm the weather/wind for gametime before sending out a total).....the total gives me a sense of the matchup...I especially like to bet games with low totals; a game that Vegas thinks will be low scoring and I think has a definite edge to one SP over the other.
I hope that helps a little....and, once again, it's just my opinion. I'm sure that many...including my "son" PingPong would counter my thoughts with a good reason for playing totals...appreciate the question....
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JEG...Let me explain (and it's only my opinion)....
When you are capping a game to pick a side, the premise is dominance vs weakness. Looking for a SP with a strong recent control groove facing an SP with a decided control groove that has gone "South"...I also look at the relative strengths and weaknesses of each offense vs the "arm" of the opposing SP and take into account recent success or lack of it by each team.
BUT....the premise is the focal starting point, the other aspects can be somewhat more subjective than objective...which is why I always ask for opinions/analysis/thoughts and not just stats.
In capping a total, rather than look for dominance vs weakness, you are looking for "sameness"....either both pitchers to be dominant or weak vs both offenses to be either weak or dominant.
You are increasing the factors that you look at in order to pick a total and, more importantly, you are relying on more accuracy because of those factors.
Vegas knows that the total bet is tougher and that's why you have, for the most part, better juice on the bet...to get you to make the bet....much like a prop bet.
The reason that I look at totals is to get a professional's opinion as to the matchup. Las Vegas Sports Consultants sends out the opening line (juice) along with the total (although in some parks..like Chicago, they wait to confirm the weather/wind for gametime before sending out a total).....the total gives me a sense of the matchup...I especially like to bet games with low totals; a game that Vegas thinks will be low scoring and I think has a definite edge to one SP over the other.
I hope that helps a little....and, once again, it's just my opinion. I'm sure that many...including my "son" PingPong would counter my thoughts with a good reason for playing totals...appreciate the question....
I'm also taking Seattle on the 5 inning line. I think they will have a nice advantage for the 1st half and don't want to give the Sox a chance to bring things back late.
BOL
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You were right on that LAD/Rocks under OPC,
I'm also taking Seattle on the 5 inning line. I think they will have a nice advantage for the 1st half and don't want to give the Sox a chance to bring things back late.
I'm also taking Seattle on the 5 inning line. I think they will have a nice advantage for the 1st half and don't want to give the Sox a chance to bring things back late.
BOL
Seattle 1st 5
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Quote Originally Posted by Lippsman:
You were right on that LAD/Rocks under OPC,
I'm also taking Seattle on the 5 inning line. I think they will have a nice advantage for the 1st half and don't want to give the Sox a chance to bring things back late.
to much explaining here on the theory behind first 5 inning bets. Go with what you feel. First 5 have been successful for us here and so we stick with it because its what we know. Some know the game better, and if thats the case great stick with it.
On to bigger and better things as I approach my 500th post. I too have the brew crew today. I am turning into a CC fan quickly. I am not comfortable playing a ML at -150 or higher so i too took the RL here. Its a good play as there seems to be some chaos in the cards locker room. Did anyone here tony's blowup with the media last night?
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to much explaining here on the theory behind first 5 inning bets. Go with what you feel. First 5 have been successful for us here and so we stick with it because its what we know. Some know the game better, and if thats the case great stick with it.
On to bigger and better things as I approach my 500th post. I too have the brew crew today. I am turning into a CC fan quickly. I am not comfortable playing a ML at -150 or higher so i too took the RL here. Its a good play as there seems to be some chaos in the cards locker room. Did anyone here tony's blowup with the media last night?
As for lucky number 500 post... let it be a good one here. This is one play and its a dog. I love it. Everyone will be able to watch this play today on ESPN. I hope everyone gets there beer and popcorn out and watch it unfold. I sure as heck will. My dog play of the day and 500th post of my career is:
Philly first 5 ML
First off philly has one of my favorite players in the MLB right now with Victorino. He is a local boy with a lot of success. He is "the spark to there offense", as qouted by Ryan Howard. Besides the fact they are playing for first place on the road. I like the fact they are a dog but small, which means the odds makers are giving more respect to the phillies than most average betters out there. Wish me luck on this play as i will unload on it. Good luck to everyone out there!!!
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As for lucky number 500 post... let it be a good one here. This is one play and its a dog. I love it. Everyone will be able to watch this play today on ESPN. I hope everyone gets there beer and popcorn out and watch it unfold. I sure as heck will. My dog play of the day and 500th post of my career is:
Philly first 5 ML
First off philly has one of my favorite players in the MLB right now with Victorino. He is a local boy with a lot of success. He is "the spark to there offense", as qouted by Ryan Howard. Besides the fact they are playing for first place on the road. I like the fact they are a dog but small, which means the odds makers are giving more respect to the phillies than most average betters out there. Wish me luck on this play as i will unload on it. Good luck to everyone out there!!!
Backdoor.....You know that I wish you all the best with your bets; but if Myers gives up more dingers, he's gonna implode....He is one of the most irritating players on the club...word out here is that the trip to the minors was for his head and not his arm....they are a small dog because Maine has looked terrible in his last two starts but the Mets are at home, so they get decent juice there....Personally, I see this game as a coinflip of 2 SP's with some problems and two offenses that can come to play...or not.
As to you first post...gotta take a little issue with it. My reasons for betting...and, historically, my pushing the 5-inning bet since the beginning of last season....has brought us together in a way that most threads in this forum have never done.
JEG, who has been a solid contributor, raised a question that, I believed, deserved..at least...my opinion. That's what I gave him.
I apoplogize for the monologue....If one sentence will suffice, I use five.....but I have strong feelings for NOT playing totals and felt that I should communicate those thoughts for his benefit.
Once again...wishing you all the best
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Backdoor.....You know that I wish you all the best with your bets; but if Myers gives up more dingers, he's gonna implode....He is one of the most irritating players on the club...word out here is that the trip to the minors was for his head and not his arm....they are a small dog because Maine has looked terrible in his last two starts but the Mets are at home, so they get decent juice there....Personally, I see this game as a coinflip of 2 SP's with some problems and two offenses that can come to play...or not.
As to you first post...gotta take a little issue with it. My reasons for betting...and, historically, my pushing the 5-inning bet since the beginning of last season....has brought us together in a way that most threads in this forum have never done.
JEG, who has been a solid contributor, raised a question that, I believed, deserved..at least...my opinion. That's what I gave him.
I apoplogize for the monologue....If one sentence will suffice, I use five.....but I have strong feelings for NOT playing totals and felt that I should communicate those thoughts for his benefit.
Thanks Mr O,Im done with 5 inning totals,whats worse is the game under has a shot,which was my first lean.
I asked for the reason why on the totals because if I remember right,you used to play them??
Im thinking Tor.with Halliday as a dog deserves a look,but wonder if its a game play with Balt.bullpen.But with the game you have to deal with Balt.bats as they seem to hit anyones bullpen.Plus Guthie is hittable.
Also someone posted Atl.has a habit of hitting Rickey hard,so not sure if Flor.is a play either.
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Thanks Mr O,Im done with 5 inning totals,whats worse is the game under has a shot,which was my first lean.
I asked for the reason why on the totals because if I remember right,you used to play them??
Im thinking Tor.with Halliday as a dog deserves a look,but wonder if its a game play with Balt.bullpen.But with the game you have to deal with Balt.bats as they seem to hit anyones bullpen.Plus Guthie is hittable.
Also someone posted Atl.has a habit of hitting Rickey hard,so not sure if Flor.is a play either.
Mr O,I could make a list of games lost by the bullpens on games I thought were won,even on Cinn-1.5 today that I won,Stupid Dusty put in an old Giants pitcher at 9-3,he gives up 1 in the 8th,so 9-4,goes to 9th and it should be an easy win,not.Its ends up 9-5 and bases loaded with a 150 hitter up,which I believe another team but the Padres probally win,another hitter was a 183 hitter,they used a pitcher to pitch-hit,and with all those things against them,they still got the winning run to the plate.
Sorry if to long,just making a point.
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Mr O,I could make a list of games lost by the bullpens on games I thought were won,even on Cinn-1.5 today that I won,Stupid Dusty put in an old Giants pitcher at 9-3,he gives up 1 in the 8th,so 9-4,goes to 9th and it should be an easy win,not.Its ends up 9-5 and bases loaded with a 150 hitter up,which I believe another team but the Padres probally win,another hitter was a 183 hitter,they used a pitcher to pitch-hit,and with all those things against them,they still got the winning run to the plate.
first off Mr.O let me just say I have no intention of trying to knock anyone down for what i said. I understand why you feel the need to explain yourself. It makes sense everytime but it was a question I have scene in here a lot.
For myers i understand what you are saying. For that same reason everyone here has lost faith in this guy. For me i am more confident in the team as a whole covering this bet, than trying to rely on one pitcher to do it for me. Its going to be a fun one to watch, thats for sure. Flip a coin i chose heads, but i find the mets on the tail end of that flip many more times than heads. Also the mets had there great run and is now coming back down to some reality. Another thing is there is only one better team than philly when it comes to road records, and that is the Angels. With the way things are going this year that says a lot. For myers its been 27 days since he has pitched a game. He has been horrible on the road for sure, especially of lated giving up 5+ runs in his last 3 road starts. Everything looks bad if you look for pitching to be the main factor here. On the flip side Main has been having a hard time lasting 5 innings. His pitch count is always high which says he walks a lot of players. With the philly speed this could mean trouble.
But you know what I feel good about this play. Like i say im depending on the team to win this one for me.
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first off Mr.O let me just say I have no intention of trying to knock anyone down for what i said. I understand why you feel the need to explain yourself. It makes sense everytime but it was a question I have scene in here a lot.
For myers i understand what you are saying. For that same reason everyone here has lost faith in this guy. For me i am more confident in the team as a whole covering this bet, than trying to rely on one pitcher to do it for me. Its going to be a fun one to watch, thats for sure. Flip a coin i chose heads, but i find the mets on the tail end of that flip many more times than heads. Also the mets had there great run and is now coming back down to some reality. Another thing is there is only one better team than philly when it comes to road records, and that is the Angels. With the way things are going this year that says a lot. For myers its been 27 days since he has pitched a game. He has been horrible on the road for sure, especially of lated giving up 5+ runs in his last 3 road starts. Everything looks bad if you look for pitching to be the main factor here. On the flip side Main has been having a hard time lasting 5 innings. His pitch count is always high which says he walks a lot of players. With the philly speed this could mean trouble.
But you know what I feel good about this play. Like i say im depending on the team to win this one for me.
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