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7/20 - MLB Breakdown Sheets

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Captain
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Posted: #51
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:


(I lean over )
taking the under for small, two decent pitchers, hoping something like the minny game yesterday...4-3
 
Prospect
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by KingScorpio:

Just know that the first round means nothing in golf.

You got a big name player getting big odds = a worthless piece of paper

 

Scott makes birdie at 10 and is really playing well.
Hold on to that ticket my man!
 
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Posted: #53
correction, no play on the cubs game, no telling what dempster is going to do today.
 
Legend
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Posted: #54
Where are the stats for the Balt/Clev game , no prog ML on sheet ?
 
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Posted: #55
Thats what I thought, but I was confused when you were chatting with DezpicableD about not including the over/under in the sheets....
 
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Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by roondog248:

Thats what I thought, but I was confused when you were chatting with DezpicableD about not including the over/under in the sheets....

To be clear, I'm including the total from my model but not the Vegas total.
 
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Posted: #57
Thanks for your hard work si1ly. You've helped me tremendously.

With that said, what do you think about taking the Nats over the Braves today? 
 
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Posted: #58
 
Legend
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Posted: #59
thx
 
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Posted: #60
 
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Posted: #61
 
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Posted: #62
I like CLE, MIL, TB.  Your sheets have helped me avoid trap games like crazy.  The past ten days I've turned slightly profitable picks into hugely profitable picks, and they make spotting value so much easier.  I definitely owe you a beer 
 
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Posted: #63
Good work Si1ly, sent you a friend request.
 
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Posted: #64
Thanks again.
Your chart is off the charts. Your the man!

 
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Posted: #65
 
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Posted: #66
locked in 
 
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Posted: #67
My model has the over under on the yankees game at 7.32 is that where you are at Silly. OMG
 
Legend
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Posted: #68

Bol tonight si1ly....

 
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Posted: #69
Haha. I just figured out how to get to the sheets. Doh! lol 

Great info. Thank you very much Silly. 

 
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Posted: #70
Hey Sil,

About the "Luck" number..How is that interpreted? I see on Ari v Hou

Houston -3, Ari -2. I understand what this stat is trying to do just not sure the scale of the numbers. Thanks for any help if you're around at all.. lol
 
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Posted: #71
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:


You can include them on the list too... I just don't know much about this Hisashi Iwakuma character pitching for the M's.


i'm not japanese but i DID watch his games a lot when he was in japan. honestly, i thought he could have been # 4-5 starters when i first saw him. you may know him already, he has been a kind of finesse pitcher in japan whose weapons were splitter, sinking fastball, and his control was quite good. the fact that he allowed 3-4 HRs 2-3 years ago while pitching more than 200 innings, however, is exceptionally extraordinary. you know, strike zone in japan is much much bigger than MLB, and he's used it a lot with his above-average control.

the key is if he can pitch effective sinking fastballs & splitters, but i seriously doubt that. i recommend that you watch his pitching against blue jays, maybe encarnacion put his moving fastball away. in japan, that ball COULD NOT BE hit that hard, i mean that ball could be caught in warning track sth.

finesse pitcher with a lot of BBs, no effective fastball command? well, DEF rays low ML even though rays bats are cold. i checked his overall speed, which made me shocked, way higher than i expected. nevertheless i don't trust him. probably rays will have at least 2-3 BBs tonight. mentioned above, current japanes strike zone is ridiculous REALLY. always GL and my written english is not good so hope mine is not ambiguous comment. i'm leaning rays ML heavily.




 
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Posted: #72
honestly i'm korean and our strike zone is bigger than MLB, but not that bigger than japan's one. theirs are just ridiculous. iwakuma benefited from that pacific-ocean like zone. some korean baseball fans who have watched MLB, NPB a lot call it ocean-like zone, LOL.
 
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Posted: #73
Quote Originally Posted by rosshuff:

Hey Sil,

About the "Luck" number..How is that interpreted? I see on Ari v Hou

Houston -3, Ari -2. I understand what this stat is trying to do just not sure the scale of the numbers. Thanks for any help if you're around at all.. lol

+/- wins versus expected pythagorean record.  That record is largely extrapolated from Runs Scored and Runs Allowed.  If the number is -3, that means they've lost 3 games that they probably should have won.. ie their record should have 3 more wins and 3 fewer losses.  It's kind of a silly statistic but it's worth peaking at to see if a team is over (or under) achieving.
 
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Posted: #74
Yes I agree it's a tad "silly", but this kind of thing can be helpful if I really have a feeling about a game etc, etc..

Thanks for the timely response! It could be just one of those "throw-away statistics but if it's used right...

Believe me I'm looking a lot more closely at the variety of other stats on the page. Thanks again.
 
 
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Posted: #75
Any interest on Weaver tonight?

The line today is actually reasonable at 140 all things considering.. Usually its 200 -even higher when its a terrible team but Texas makes it doable - ty and gl 




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