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7/20 - MLB Breakdown Sheets

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Posted: #76
Si1ly, What do you think about -1.5 in Cards game? since Dempster is due for a loss. Or if he doesnt even pitch?
 
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Posted: #77
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:


Keep in mind when tracking the total results that my model is biased towards the under.  The bell curve of Baseball scores has more variety of totals above the average due to statistical anomalies which my model cannot predict or account for.  Personally, when I play a total I look for favorable weather conditions, weak (or strong) line-ups, and two winning runs between my number and the Vegas number.  (None of the above mentioned games qualify because they all only have one winning number between the model and the Vegas line).  A good example of a total I would tail my model on is a game that is projected at 7.8 but the total is 9.5.  9 and 8 are both winners, with 10 needed to lose there is 2.2 runs of value.


I couldn't agree more...but you know its all ways hard to find that +2 in run value. I will just keep track for the next week..im sure a trend will show up..it might turn out that +1.5 is all the value you should look for.
 
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Posted: #78

BOL tonight MASTER si1ly!!! Keep the  rolling in!!!

 

 
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Posted: #79
Locked in the Cards.....BOL tonight si1ly


 
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Posted: #80
Thoughts on Yankees tonight.   I know how you feel about the west coast. haha
 
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Posted: #81
 
Captain
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Posted: #82
Under and ML hit
 
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Posted: #83
Keep it up!
 
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Posted: #84
OK..So after the first day of my tracking the O/U with at least +1 run diffrence...

It went 3-1..not to bad.
 
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Posted: #85

si1ly, THANKYOU so much for your spreadsheets.  I won big today, Rays, miami under, milwaukee under, all because the info on your spreadsheets.  all season i have been winning and losing, mostly losing though, and finally i have found a winning system.  THANKYOU so much, you are da man !  i won big today, and parlayed them !!  like i said earlier, i believe in your spreadsheets, and EVERYBODY is gonna be in here just watch.  ive searched so many threads for good info and a good system.  THIS IS IT !!  and St. Louis won !

  cant even explain how happy i am right now !!!!!!!!!!!!!!  Twins last night was a minor setback.  This system works !!!

 
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Posted: #86
Breakeven, keep posting your plays too. Good job today, let's have some teamwork.
 
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Posted: #87

good steady run S1lly. i admire your patience and knowledge of this sport. great work dude, keep it up

  moving ahead and thnx for posting the sheets 

 
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Posted: #88
Any sheets for Saturday?
 
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Posted: #89

bump

 

 
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Posted: #90
Yes was also waiting on sheets for today. They helped me go 3-1 yesterday, thanks for all your effort si1ly
 
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Posted: #91
Slings:  How did you use the sheets to go 3-1 yesterday.
 
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Posted: #92
bump
 
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Posted: #93

Quote Originally Posted by js4u:

Slings:  How did you use the sheets to go 3-1 yesterday.

Giants

Pirates

Rangers/ Angels under 7.5

Yankees/Oakland over 7.5 

 
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Posted: #94
I didnt ask what your picks were I asked how you used the sheets to make the picks.
 
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Posted: #95

 
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Posted: #96
I don't really have a method to my madness. I looked at the numbers, considered where they were playing, weather, past history for the teams and the numbers si1ly presented and went from there. I don't have a set way of deciding plays
 
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Posted: #97
Hi Si1ly I tailed you on adam scott to win the Brit open...100=3400 , so how  do you hedge it or just sit back and pray???Thanks...Gl to us 2morrow...

 
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Posted: #98
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:

Twins let me down today.  Or more so, the Twins BP let me down.  Up 3-1 going into the 7th and they lose 4-3 with a lot of opportunities left on the table.  Lost a small action wager on the Open Championship as well, but I've got a great looking future on Adam Scott to win at +2800 still alive and beating.  Just a little bump in the road.  This is a good time of the year to slow it down and take things one game at a time.  You can lose a lot of money in a hurry with the way the oddsmakers are tightening these lines.

BEST OF LUCK 2DAY sI1ly !!!! CHEERS 
 
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Posted: #99
 
 
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Posted: #100
Si1y....thanks bro for all the great info here.  I normally just play football, but decided to get ready by making small plays on baseball.  You have improved my BR....keep bringing my friend.

Hope you also share football insights...I will be tagging along.

My two cents, like Rays under, think Matt Moore shuts the door on Mariners bats.
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