Blue's Baseball System

Question

Ok guys..lots of action tonight. NCAA conference tourneys going on…NBA in full force..but I’m posting about the sport I do the best at….I have a system I use…I have MLB baseball game database of over 53,000 MLB games this comes from….11 years straight I have used it, and lost only 1 year -and that was a small amount compared to the winning years I have had.

My system is based on the basic law that states that action and reaction are always equal and opposite - everything tends toward an equilibrium. The normal level of things (parity) is always constantly being touched. A passing rise, or a team rising above parity (overvalued) , is always followed by the same team falling below parity (undervalued) . This may take several games, or weeks, but it always reverses itself. The odds are always based on the public perception of the team due to their latest performances. The trend of a team is always toward parity - knowing how far above parity (overvalued) and below parity (undervalued) IS THE KEY to my methods and calculations.

I could spew all kinds of crap at you guys…but I just want everyone to know a few things:

1.) My record will speak for itself – which will be posted each day. If I’m full of shit you guys will figure it out real quick.

2.) I am not above reproach and if you want to call me out – then do so..but I better have a losing record and have been losing money for the season....t

2.) I do not have enough time to sit here a post the reasons why a take a particular pick – there will be some days where there is 8 or 9 plays…..

3.) There is no such thing as a lock.

4.) Due to the fact that I need a few weeks for this system to get underway as stated above…the picks start on Friday April 18^th….that is enough time for everyone (and the oddsmakers) to formulate an opinion of each team, and set the money lines against the public perception.

5.) Picks will be posted by 10:00 am each morning – whether there are picks are not – some days I will pass…and when things seem to be unsettled, there may be 4 or 5 days in a row I pass.

6.) I pick baseball teams, not pitchers – when I post a pick, I take them regardless of who is on the mound. (that is the another key to this system).

7.) My baseball plays are always for the same amount, for example, if oyu are a $100 a unit better- favorites are always to win $100, (example $200 to win $100) and dogs are always $100 to win whatever the math comes out to ($100 to win $200) ....if you bet $100 a unit…..keep it that way all season…see next post for my results…

Due to the fact that ALOT of the plays tend to be undervalued dogs, you could win only 50% a year and still post a nice profit….Example ….If you take the Yankees all year at 3 to 1 or 2 to 1 favorites, they’ll will 60%-65% of their games, and you will lose moneyJ

I will post this same post maybe twice a week for those who have not seen it….until the plays start Friday, April 18^th. GL to all.

blues2112 · Answer

Ok guys..lots of action tonight. NCAA conference tourneys going on…NBA in full force..but I’m posting about the sport I do the best at….I have a system I use…I have MLB baseball game database of over 53,000 MLB games this comes from….11 years straight I have used it, and lost only 1 year -and that was a small amount compared to the winning years I have had.

My system is based on the basic law that states that action and reaction are always equal and opposite - everything tends toward an equilibrium. The normal level of things (parity) is always constantly being touched. A passing rise, or a team rising above parity (overvalued) , is always followed by the same team falling below parity (undervalued) . This may take several games, or weeks, but it always reverses itself. The odds are always based on the public perception of the team due to their latest performances. The trend of a team is always toward parity - knowing how far above parity (overvalued) and below parity (undervalued) IS THE KEY to my methods and calculations.

I could spew all kinds of crap at you guys…but I just want everyone to know a few things:

1.) My record will speak for itself – which will be posted each day. If I’m full of shit you guys will figure it out real quick.

2.) I am not above reproach and if you want to call me out – then do so..but I better have a losing record and have been losing money for the season....t

2.) I do not have enough time to sit here a post the reasons why a take a particular pick – there will be some days where there is 8 or 9 plays…..

3.) There is no such thing as a lock.

4.) Due to the fact that I need a few weeks for this system to get underway as stated above…the picks start on Friday April 18^th….that is enough time for everyone (and the oddsmakers) to formulate an opinion of each team, and set the money lines against the public perception.

5.) Picks will be posted by 10:00 am each morning – whether there are picks are not – some days I will pass…and when things seem to be unsettled, there may be 4 or 5 days in a row I pass.

6.) I pick baseball teams, not pitchers – when I post a pick, I take them regardless of who is on the mound. (that is the another key to this system).

7.) My baseball plays are always for the same amount, for example, if oyu are a $100 a unit better- favorites are always to win $100, (example $200 to win $100) and dogs are always $100 to win whatever the math comes out to ($100 to win $200) ....if you bet $100 a unit…..keep it that way all season…see next post for my results…

Due to the fact that ALOT of the plays tend to be undervalued dogs, you could win only 50% a year and still post a nice profit….Example ….If you take the Yankees all year at 3 to 1 or 2 to 1 favorites, they’ll will 60%-65% of their games, and you will lose moneyJ

I will post this same post maybe twice a week for those who have not seen it….until the plays start Friday, April 18^th. GL to all.

blues2112 · Answer

Year    Total   Lose    Win     Win %            $500 per Play&#xD;&#xA;1997    566      263      303      53.53%            $13,465.00&#xD;&#xA;1998    733      347      386      52.66%            $17,905.00&#xD;&#xA;1999    643      266      377      58.63%            $44,190.00&#xD;&#xA;2000    691      301      390      56.44%            $34,440.00&#xD;&#xA;2001    753      293      460      61.09%            $64,580.00&#xD;&#xA;2002    510      216      294      57.65%            $41,990.00&#xD;&#xA;2003    517      215      302      58.41%            $34,035.00&#xD;&#xA;2004    713      333      380      53.30%            $(3,005.00)&#xD;&#xA;2005    523      232      291      55.64%            $22,395.00&#xD;&#xA;2006    595      262      333      55.97%            $25,865.00&#xD;&#xA;2007    720      310      410      56.94%            $56,980.00&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;                                    11 Year Total             $352,840.00&#xD;&#xA;                                    Ave per Year              $  32,076.36

philschnaars · Answer

bol to you this year....will keep my eye on what you think and how you&#x27;re doing

TheGoldenGoose · Answer

We will be watching this system closely.

kefala · Answer

GL, will be watching.

schmidty · Answer

sounds good, Blues, thanks

betjackson · Answer

Looking forward to 4/18,

DrexandDraz · Answer

Looks real strong Blue

paslas · Answer

gl

Locksmith20 · Answer

Can you describe what your system is really consisting of? Im sure many of us would like to know

Jambruins · Answer

I would also really like to know more about your system.  Can you explain how you determine what teams to bet on or against?  Thanks and good luck this year.

blues2112 · Answer

Thanks for the interest everyone - I&#x27;ll post this weekend and elaborate more on this system for those that are interested... I can tell you that my background is in finance -. And I look at sports betting like investing...it has to make sense and have a good return over the long haul...anyone can be a 1-hit wonder and go 6-0 on a night or have some good weeks here and there&#x2026;.but what is their worth over a season?...very few betters make a profit on the long run &#x2013; although most will tell you otherwise. &#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Here is a good story about how all this came about - about 20 years ago I got in over my head to my local guy, who I also happened to go to school with his son. I was in college and working as a waiter&#x2026;.so my means were slim at the time&#x2026;After telling his runner at the time that I was going to have to make payments&#x2026;.the next day his son comes up to me at school  and tells me his father wanted to see me. 1st thought through my head was &#x201C;Oh Sh!t&#x201D;, - there were two partners who ran this operation&#x2026;and they were the biggest ones around, so I thought for sure I had some serious problems.  Anyways, this guy knew I was a good kid who was going about things the wrong way so he just wanted to sit me down and get my head screwed on straight. So after talking to me like I was the degenerate I was for about 10 minutes, he looks at me and tells me that I couldn&#x2019;t beat him &#x2013; nobody ever had, and nobody ever would. I could beat him for a week or a month, but over time, he would always come out ahead. &#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;I call that story the &#x201C; How I almost got whacked story&#x201D;:  Of coarse I was never going to get whacked but for a 19 year old kid, I was scared shitless.&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Well, the worst thing you could do to me is tell me that I can&#x2019;t do something. I am very competitive and I remember that conversation word for word to this day. It is sort of burned into my mind. Anyways, about 7 or 8 years and 500 spreadsheets later&#x2026;I come up with the main part of this system&#x2026;.I am sort of obsessive compulsive about things like this, and I have spent a ton of time tweaking this system for better results since them. &#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;I&#x27;ll post more htis weekend about this - I am off to the bar to catch a few brews before going home.

blues2112 · Answer

About the system&#x2026;I have a chart that has every MLB team across the top of the chart, and every MLB team down the size of the chart&#x2026;..and I have a calculated value for each team if it were to play each other team&#x2026;these values change a bit each day as I enter the latest data from games&#x2026;it is a spreadsheet that automatically up-dates as I go along through the season&#x2026;&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Note about pitchers:  I view a pitcher as only playing defense (trying to get the other team out) and contributing nothing on offense&#x2026;money lines I feel are based mainly on a the starting pitcher, who on average may only throw half the game, (actually a little longer on average) . &#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;The data&#x2026;.Now, I sift out all the crap from each box score&#x2026;.like intentionally letting a run score in the 9th because a team is up by 2 runs to focus in getting the batter out , same for stolen bases&#x2026;indifference,&#x2026;.balks&#x2026;&#x2026;.fielding errors are about 90% random so I have to take them into account , &#x2026;..walks to hits (WHIP)&#x2026;batters hit by pitches (especially intentionally) - bullpen ERA&#x2019;s and closer information&#x2026;damn near everything of value. I have a few formula&#x2019;s that calculate a team&#x2019;s chance of wining against every other team &#x2026;.which then gives me a money line value &#x2013; regardless of the pitcher on the mound that day.&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;When my money line differs from the posted lines that day&#x2026;I have profit opportunity that over time will result in positive gains&#x2026;&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Its funny, sometimes this system has picks that my brain says&#x2026;No F@ckin way&#x2026;like Tampa Bay over the Yankees as a large dog&#x2026;.and I actually have to force myself to place these wagers&#x2026;..but it works out  in the  long run for the most part.  &#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Like I said before, the results will speak for itself&#x2026; GL to all in their NCAAB play today

philschnaars · Answer

once again will be watching.....thanks for the explanation of your system and bol this year!

griller · Answer

Best of luck on the upcoming season.

Superfigg · Answer

Its good to see someone who has a set system in place.  have a couple quick questions , as i also run a quasi-system&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;1. Any subjective input in the equation?  I also watch alot of baseball 4 days later (to watch the next days pitcher start and to not give myself heart attacks by watching games im betting on live) , I have last veto rights on any pick if im not feeling it (making it a non black box system entirely )&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;2. wow. I read the part that SP have no wieghing on your selecton that date , in my system starting pitching is the overlying majority factor in determining a bet , which means...  your system is based on public perception.. and oddsmakers attaching premiums to certain teams and scenarios  (examples ,  Dallas cowboys, NYY , overs on the NYY , overs on the NE Patriots etc etc etc) . In time that system does in fact work..  but giving no weight to the SP..?? wow&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;3. Either way, best of luck ,, ill see if i post my day to day picks this year as well.  i posted them last year &#xD;&#xA;https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&amp;sub=765319&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;had a sub 500 record , but a nice unit year , as TB and WAS kept hitting nicely for me  ,  hopefully we could compare notes down the road

blues2112 · Answer

Superfigg&#x2026;&#x2026;&#x2B;60 units is fantastic for last year&#x2026;..in baseball, it&#x2019;s not the winning % but the units&#x2026;I usually go $500 a unit..so you would of made me $30,000 last yearJ&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;To answer your questions:&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;#1 no, there is no subjectivity in my picks&#x2026;every time I think I know what is going to happen, it usually doesn&#x2019;t&#x2026;..my brain like to pick favs and overs, like the rest of the world&#x2026;..so I take my opinions and gut feelings off of the table.  That is why the public always loses - the favorites do not always win.  Last season, the best teams in MLB won 6 and lost 4, the worst teams won 4 and lost 6&#x2026;. If you bet favorites and bet to win $100, anything above 3 to 2 odds put you in negative territory last year&#x2026;.&#xD;&#xA;6 Wins @ $100 each                =          $600&#xD;&#xA;4 Loses @ $-150 each             =          -$600&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;#2. I feel the starting pitchers value is usually based on their last start or two&#x2026;throw a complete  game, shut down a good offense, have 10 strikeouts&#x2026;...and you are suddenly $50 more expensive on the money line the next posted line&#x2026;If you are an investor, this is basically a value-investment system.. I&#x2019;m buying a baseball team who is undervalued or betting against one who is overvalued&#x2026;&#x2026;and it is usually against public perception. Sport-center runs a piece on a pitcher, about what kind a great season he is having, the same melodramatic crap they always have on&#x2026;and wham, he&#x2019;s $40-$50 overvalued next pick because the public saw it and wants to bet on him&#x2026;It doesn&#x2019;t mean he is not going to win&#x2026;it just costs you more when he loses&#x2026; That is exactly what my system prevents &#x2013; overpaying for a pitcher or a team.&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA; It tracks what I consider to be parity &#x2013; the true value for any team at any given time and takes out emotion, news reports, winning streaks, weather, etc..all the stuff that influences my brain. Trust me, I have proven with out a doubt that my brain is fallible&#x2026;.it was a very expensive learning curve for me in my 20&#x2019;sJ&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;If both your system and my system both pick the same team&#x2026;then we hammer it..&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;GL to all..let&#x2019;s make some money this summer boys (and girls if you are out there)&#x2026;

Primetime02 · Answer

Blues, I&#x27;m a big finance guy like you and totally eat up sports betting, poker, and market investing.  I&#x27;ve focused a lot of my energy on poker and been successful at that, now I&#x27;m starting to put a little more effort into sports betting.What you say makes perfect sense.  To put it another (theoretical) way, the way the public overvalues starting pitching and especially the last 1-2 outings is kind of like if they were to bet on the flip of a coin.  Now a guy like you knows that if you flip that coin a million times it will be heads 50% of the time.  Kind of like you know a starting pitcher will hit a certain value over the course of a season.  Now what if the coin were to hit heads 4 times in a row?  The public might say, wow heads is really hitting big on this coin, I&#x27;m gonna take heads at -120 on the next flip.  Whereas the astute guy knows the next flip is gonna be 50/50 regardless next time.  Might be kind of a silly example, but I think it is kind of a theoretical analysis of how the public thinks, and why there is value in plays.  If the linesmakers set the lines to where they thought they should be, it would be very tough for anyone to do well.  Luckily they set them based on what the public thinks, so you have to kind of understand where the leaks in the public&#x27;s way of thinking are, and exploit them (betting faves, overs, hot pitchers, etc.)Anyway, good luck on the season, I&#x27;ll be watching this system with great interest.

lanastasis · Answer

I use cumulative stats from the season to spit out a money line and find value picks that way, but I agree with many of the things you are saying.

I should start posting at the same time as you and have the goal of finishing up 100+ units.

I'll be looking out for you in the forum. Good luck.

BayAreaBookie · Answer

looking forward to your plays man.  Good luck!

a7a8a9a1 · Answer

I&#x27;m looking forward to comparing information with you

gustosgoat · Answer

blues1212 your thread is one of the best ever written and most real!  I have never done real well in Baseball before but your ideas and 11 year track record look to speak for itself.  I will be watching closely and jumping on the bandwagon too I feel very soon!

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