CheersM8.....no….I had to make payments...I got about half way through and he told me he'd let me slide on the rest if I never bet again.....well, I took it to mean not with him:-) Plus, I spent 8 years donating to another local before I got my crap together..I'm 38 now....and have done fairly well for the last 10 - 11 years.
Mr.Advantage…very good points..there are so many factors that play into line movements that it is hard to try and capture all of them. I tried to come up with a formula that could be measured off of hard data.
Pitcher/Umpire relationships could be translated into hard data and incorporated into this sytem ...how? Well I'd have to do some research, but off hand ..I am sure certain pitchers would have an ERA significantly lower with certain umpires...and also higher. Let’s face it, I don’t like everyone I work with, I try to be professional about things, but when there is emotion involved, anything goes.
I’m sure certain umpires hate certain pitchers, or managers, or whatever….and it does affect their calling of balls and strikes... Not sure the % of games where this would become a factor, but it’s worth a look.
CheersM8.....no….I had to make payments...I got about half way through and he told me he'd let me slide on the rest if I never bet again.....well, I took it to mean not with him:-) Plus, I spent 8 years donating to another local before I got my crap together..I'm 38 now....and have done fairly well for the last 10 - 11 years.
Mr.Advantage…very good points..there are so many factors that play into line movements that it is hard to try and capture all of them. I tried to come up with a formula that could be measured off of hard data.
Pitcher/Umpire relationships could be translated into hard data and incorporated into this sytem ...how? Well I'd have to do some research, but off hand ..I am sure certain pitchers would have an ERA significantly lower with certain umpires...and also higher. Let’s face it, I don’t like everyone I work with, I try to be professional about things, but when there is emotion involved, anything goes.
I’m sure certain umpires hate certain pitchers, or managers, or whatever….and it does affect their calling of balls and strikes... Not sure the % of games where this would become a factor, but it’s worth a look.
CheersM8.....no….I had to make payments...I got about half way through and he told me he'd let me slide on the rest if I never bet again.....well, I took it to mean not with him:-) Plus, I spent 8 years donating to another local before I got my crap together..I'm 38 now....and have done fairly well for the last 10 - 11 years.
Mr.Advantage…very good points..there are so many factors that play into line movements that it is hard to try and capture all of them. I tried to come up with a formula that could be measured off of hard data.
Pitcher/Umpire relationships could be translated into hard data and incorporated into this sytem ...how? Well I'd have to do some research, but off hand ..I am sure certain pitchers would have an ERA significantly lower with certain umpires...and also higher. Let’s face it, I don’t like everyone I work with, I try to be professional about things, but when there is emotion involved, anything goes.
I’m sure certain umpires hate certain pitchers, or managers, or whatever….and it does affect their calling of balls and strikes... Not sure the % of games where this would become a factor, but it’s worth a look.
CheersM8.....no….I had to make payments...I got about half way through and he told me he'd let me slide on the rest if I never bet again.....well, I took it to mean not with him:-) Plus, I spent 8 years donating to another local before I got my crap together..I'm 38 now....and have done fairly well for the last 10 - 11 years.
Mr.Advantage…very good points..there are so many factors that play into line movements that it is hard to try and capture all of them. I tried to come up with a formula that could be measured off of hard data.
Pitcher/Umpire relationships could be translated into hard data and incorporated into this sytem ...how? Well I'd have to do some research, but off hand ..I am sure certain pitchers would have an ERA significantly lower with certain umpires...and also higher. Let’s face it, I don’t like everyone I work with, I try to be professional about things, but when there is emotion involved, anything goes.
I’m sure certain umpires hate certain pitchers, or managers, or whatever….and it does affect their calling of balls and strikes... Not sure the % of games where this would become a factor, but it’s worth a look.
Yep..April 18th is the date I will start posting......I will post later tonight after work about why April 18th..there is a good reason..I'll give you guys a month by month breakdown for the last 11 years of returns....then you'll see why mid April is a good starting date...
Also, I am going to post a little about money management with this system....most of you guys know this stuff but I want to make sure everyone understands the philosophy of this system..It is time based...not make a zillion dollars in a day or two...I hate to see a college kid blow his education fund because he saw a post on Covers.com.....sad, but it happens.
Yep..April 18th is the date I will start posting......I will post later tonight after work about why April 18th..there is a good reason..I'll give you guys a month by month breakdown for the last 11 years of returns....then you'll see why mid April is a good starting date...
Also, I am going to post a little about money management with this system....most of you guys know this stuff but I want to make sure everyone understands the philosophy of this system..It is time based...not make a zillion dollars in a day or two...I hate to see a college kid blow his education fund because he saw a post on Covers.com.....sad, but it happens.
11 year results based
on $100 per unit.
April May June July
1997 ($1,213) $1,825 $2,082 $2,304
1998 $236 $1,060 ($2,051) $4,026
1999 ($364) $2,264 $258 $40
2000 ($1,228) $3,628 $222 $3,645
2001 $3,820 $74 $4,610 ($1,736)
2002 $336 $1,054 $873 $4,450
2003 $514 $726 $1,183 $2,369
2004 ($5,781) $1,022 $418 ($420)
2005 ($34) $3,548 $1,848 $610
2006 $273 $2,400 $860 $38
2007 $1,772 $1,807 $2,443 ($774)
Total ($1,669) $19,408 $12,746 $14,552
11 year results based
on $100 per unit.
April May June July
1997 ($1,213) $1,825 $2,082 $2,304
1998 $236 $1,060 ($2,051) $4,026
1999 ($364) $2,264 $258 $40
2000 ($1,228) $3,628 $222 $3,645
2001 $3,820 $74 $4,610 ($1,736)
2002 $336 $1,054 $873 $4,450
2003 $514 $726 $1,183 $2,369
2004 ($5,781) $1,022 $418 ($420)
2005 ($34) $3,548 $1,848 $610
2006 $273 $2,400 $860 $38
2007 $1,772 $1,807 $2,443 ($774)
Total ($1,669) $19,408 $12,746 $14,552
Aug September Oct Total per year
1997 ($856) ($684) ($756) $2,693
1998 $203 ($67) $179 $3,586
1999 $4,748 $2,226 ($334) $8,838
2000 $2,607 ($2,314) $328 $6,888
2001 $4,293 $1,584 $271 $12,916
2002 $1,361 $324 $0 $8,398
2003 $52 $1,408 $555 $6,807
2004 $1,593 $1,407 $1060 ($701)
2005 $320 ($902) ($911) $4,479
2006 $1,402 ($370) $570 $5,173
2007 $2,216 $2,392 $1,540 $11,396
Aug September Oct Total per year
1997 ($856) ($684) ($756) $2,693
1998 $203 ($67) $179 $3,586
1999 $4,748 $2,226 ($334) $8,838
2000 $2,607 ($2,314) $328 $6,888
2001 $4,293 $1,584 $271 $12,916
2002 $1,361 $324 $0 $8,398
2003 $52 $1,408 $555 $6,807
2004 $1,593 $1,407 $1060 ($701)
2005 $320 ($902) ($911) $4,479
2006 $1,402 ($370) $570 $5,173
2007 $2,216 $2,392 $1,540 $11,396
Hey guys, tried to get this a full chart format - it will not let me post a spread sheet, gives me an error about 7800 character limit...so I had to do it like this..as you can see, there is much to be discerned from the historical results below.
1.) April is the worst month – mainly, my only losing year(2004) - it was all done in April, over 5 grand…..spent the rest of the year clawing back to a $701 loser……Of that month, it was almost all due to the 1st few weeks…
2.) April has lost 5 years, won 6 years…so it proves I have to let the public and the lines makers get into a groove before this kicks in.
3.) May, June, July and Aug are the best months …..
4.) Please note there are only 2 years when I did not have a losing month sometime during the season, 2002 & 2003.
5.) I suggest a $2,000 bankroll for every $100 bet – that should be enough to weather the downturns and profit from the upswings. Average return for a $100 better would be $6,406 + the initial $2,000 bankroll – so early Oct you’d have $8,406 on average.
If you want to bet $500 a unit…I suggest a $10,000 bankroll…projected profit of $32,033 early Oct, plus the $10,000 bankroll you never lost = $42,033
6.) Remember this is a system based on fundamental indicators derived from stats….it is designed to make money over time….think long term strategy…most betters think very short term….like how much do I have to pay at the end of the week, or how much do I get paid?
GL to all with your plays
Hey guys, tried to get this a full chart format - it will not let me post a spread sheet, gives me an error about 7800 character limit...so I had to do it like this..as you can see, there is much to be discerned from the historical results below.
1.) April is the worst month – mainly, my only losing year(2004) - it was all done in April, over 5 grand…..spent the rest of the year clawing back to a $701 loser……Of that month, it was almost all due to the 1st few weeks…
2.) April has lost 5 years, won 6 years…so it proves I have to let the public and the lines makers get into a groove before this kicks in.
3.) May, June, July and Aug are the best months …..
4.) Please note there are only 2 years when I did not have a losing month sometime during the season, 2002 & 2003.
5.) I suggest a $2,000 bankroll for every $100 bet – that should be enough to weather the downturns and profit from the upswings. Average return for a $100 better would be $6,406 + the initial $2,000 bankroll – so early Oct you’d have $8,406 on average.
If you want to bet $500 a unit…I suggest a $10,000 bankroll…projected profit of $32,033 early Oct, plus the $10,000 bankroll you never lost = $42,033
6.) Remember this is a system based on fundamental indicators derived from stats….it is designed to make money over time….think long term strategy…most betters think very short term….like how much do I have to pay at the end of the week, or how much do I get paid?
GL to all with your plays
MLKing..there is already a website out there that does that….it has every MLB batter in the lineup against every pitcher and gives a statistical chance of that team winning each night…very small gains at the end of the year…..but it has posted a profit for like the last 8 years or so…..some math nut at one of the universities developed it...
MLKing..there is already a website out there that does that….it has every MLB batter in the lineup against every pitcher and gives a statistical chance of that team winning each night…very small gains at the end of the year…..but it has posted a profit for like the last 8 years or so…..some math nut at one of the universities developed it...
It doesn’t cost anyone anything to sit back and watch…then everyone can find out if I am full of shit without spending a nickle.. I am not yelling or screaming or calling anything a lock, or a play of the decade, or anything of that nature.…The record at seasons end will speak for itself…check back in once and while to see how it is doing ….
What I see with a lot of cappers here is when they get hot, and have posted a good record…people do what we refer to as chasing profits in the financial industry…..A bunch of people jump on after the money has been made, expecting to so the same, the trend will eventually reverse itself, as stocks do not go straight up, and neither do winning records in gambling…it is up and down….just trying to achieve more ups than downsJ
Everybody has good runs and bad runs….this is gambling…I have posted my months records as above to inform everyone that this is not a golden pill, or magic, or anything other than a system designed to exploit the bookmakers over time…not over a week or two…..so when someone jumps in…they need to know the most likely outcome:
18 losing months vs 59 winning months in 11 years…
OR
1 out of 4 months will be a loser historically speaking….
I’m sure I’ll get some hate mail during points of the season and thats good...when I have a losing month I deserve it (notice I said WHEN I have a losing month, not IF I have a losing month - as I expect to have 1 out of 4)…
I just want everyone to use their head if they tail.
GL on the NCAA brackets everyone
It doesn’t cost anyone anything to sit back and watch…then everyone can find out if I am full of shit without spending a nickle.. I am not yelling or screaming or calling anything a lock, or a play of the decade, or anything of that nature.…The record at seasons end will speak for itself…check back in once and while to see how it is doing ….
What I see with a lot of cappers here is when they get hot, and have posted a good record…people do what we refer to as chasing profits in the financial industry…..A bunch of people jump on after the money has been made, expecting to so the same, the trend will eventually reverse itself, as stocks do not go straight up, and neither do winning records in gambling…it is up and down….just trying to achieve more ups than downsJ
Everybody has good runs and bad runs….this is gambling…I have posted my months records as above to inform everyone that this is not a golden pill, or magic, or anything other than a system designed to exploit the bookmakers over time…not over a week or two…..so when someone jumps in…they need to know the most likely outcome:
18 losing months vs 59 winning months in 11 years…
OR
1 out of 4 months will be a loser historically speaking….
I’m sure I’ll get some hate mail during points of the season and thats good...when I have a losing month I deserve it (notice I said WHEN I have a losing month, not IF I have a losing month - as I expect to have 1 out of 4)…
I just want everyone to use their head if they tail.
GL on the NCAA brackets everyone
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.