I really put a lot of thought into the card once the lines came out. I see three plays that are screaming at me and a few that are intriguing.
Friday's Card
903 Washington Nationals (J. Zimmermann) FG, -111 --- Risk 1.50% of Bankroll (5dimes)
This line will make you blink a few times and seems too good to be true. If you're like me you were probably expecting to see something between -130 and -140, which warrants some caution. However, I am not going to over think this one and get overly cute by taking the home dog.
Zimmermann has been off his last two starts, but despite this the Nationals have a clear advantage in the starting pitching department. But as bad as Zimmermann has been, Latos has been ever worse. Latos hasn't been right all year (including spring training). He's been hit hard in each of his starts. While the marlins are an improved team this year, the Nationals are a 90+ win team in my view. They are starting to click, even though they just dropped 2 of 3 to the STL. If Desmond can keep the errors to a minimum and Latos keeps missing up in the zone, this one should be the Nationals' game for the taking.
Another potential option - for those who would rather pass on the ML - is to look at the Nationals TT over/under. The current O/U on the game is 7.5 (-130 on the under). That means you're probably looking at 7 at around +100 or so. Since the game is close to even money, you will probably see a 3.5 O/U for both teams. If the Nationals TT is 3.5 and better than -125, then that could be a good fade Latos play.
911 Pittsburgh Pirates (G. Cole) FG, -134 --- Risk 1.00% of Bankroll (5dimes)
Will the real Gerrit Cole please stand up?!?! Cole has been establishing himself as a legitimate top of the rotation starter. His control has been an area of concern. While he has avoided walking batters, he has gone deep into too many counts and Hurdle is forced to go to the bullpen early. The Pirates' bullpen doesnt give me the warm fuzzies right now. However, Cole's strikeout numbers are still where they need to be (~1 per inning) and he is keeping the ball down (solid G/FB ratio) so it will take a string of hits to plate runs (i.e., he doesnt give up many long balls). I can't seem to figure Collmenter out and the Dbacks have been playing much better than most expected them to (O/U on wins was about 70 I believe), and just took 3 of 4 on the road vs. San Francisco. The Pirates are starting to look like a contending team, winning 7 of their last 11 games.
Rich line for a road team? I think you could come up w/ compelling arguments to suggest this is so. With Collmenter coming off a 114 pitch complete game shutout, I really like the Pirates in this spot and I am going to roll with them behind Cole.
918 Detroit Tigers (S. Greene) -1 RL, +109 --- Risk 1.00% of Bankroll (5dimes)
The tough series vs. the Yankees probably helped get this line to a playable level (ML at -135 and the -1.5 RL at +160). Here is what stands out as odd here. Typically, you will see a differential of closer to 50pts between the ML and -1.5 RL when the O/U is at 8 or so. The difference will be wider when you have a lower run total (i.e., lower probability of winning by 2+ runs when it's supposed to be a low scoring affair).
Playing the under is tempting here, as the Indians' offense has been putrid and Salazar has very good stuff. However, this is dangerous business with the Tigers' offense. While he racks up the Ks, Salazar throws a lot of pitches and he rarely goes more than 5 or 6 innings. Detroit has shown that they can hit him in the past and they do well against pitchers with an arsenal like his.
I think the ML is about where it should be, but I see value in the probability of the Tigers winning by 2+ runs. I feel the -1.5 RL should be about 30 points richer (i.e., +130 or so), so I am going with the -1 RL in this spot.
Sunday
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