All Forums | MLB Betting

Bob's MLB Monday *** 4.27.15 ***

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 3863
Posts: 41
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2014
Posts: 6446
Posted: #1
MLB 2015 --- Overall
YTD: 41-47-5 (47%) *** -7.05% Return on Risk ***
ML: 27-30 (47%)
F5: 3-4-2 (43%)
RL: 2-3-2 (40%)
O/U: 9-8-1 (53%)
Parlays: 0-2-0 (0%)
Starting / Current Bankroll: $5,216 / $4,848.87 (-$367.13, -7.05%)

MLB 2015 --- Picks of the Day
YTD: 10-13-3 (43%) *** -15.76% Return on Risk ***
ML: 6-9 (40%)
F5: 0-1-1 (0%)
RL: 1-2-2 (33%)
O/U: 3-1-0 (75%)

MLB 2014
Overall: 826-685-112 (55%) *** +4.13% Return on Risk ***
PODs: 121-72-16 (63%) *** +16.60% Return on Risk ***

Sunday's Results
Record: 3-2-0 (60%)
Risked: 5.50% of Bankroll ($269) --- WA line of -115
Profit / Return on Risk: +$12.71 / +4.72%
https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=102110532&page=2

Monday's Card

957 Pittsburgh Pirates (V. Worley) FG, +120 --- Risk 1.00% of Bankroll

977 Houston (McHugh) / San Diego (Shields) Under 6.5 FG, -105 --- Risk 1.00% of Bankroll
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2005
Posts: 23341
Posted: #2
Pirates just swept a struggling Diamondback team without their best hitter in Lamb.Cubs are putting up runs and Pirates are sending out a pitcher that wouldn't even be in the starting rotation.
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2015
Posts: 197
Posted: #3
King Scorpio man thank you..I think dudes just say anything on covers..
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2010
Posts: 26739
Posted: #4

Quote Originally Posted by KingScorpio:

Pirates just swept a struggling Diamondback team without their best hitter in Lamb.Cubs are putting up runs and Pirates are sending out a pitcher that wouldn't even be in the starting rotation.

 

He's been posting every day for baseball and you don't think he knew that? Thanks for the speech of enlightenment you give people who actually do this every day while you stand behind the curtain with a dk up your azz.

Continue being a worthless troll to the forum or delete your count for good. Nobody gives a flying fk about anything you have to say

 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2015
Posts: 701
Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by VegasVandal:

 

He's been posting every day for baseball and you don't think he knew that? Thanks for the speech of enlightenment you give people who actually do this every day while you stand behind the curtain with a dk up your azz.

Continue being a worthless troll to the forum or delete your count for good. Nobody gives a flying fk about anything you have to say


Well said. I agree, BOB knows his stuff I always read what he has to say. Very knowledgable imo.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2010
Posts: 1457
Posted: #6
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2007
Posts: 1356
Posted: #7
 VegasVandal
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2012
Posts: 22004
Posted: #8
With you on the Pirates 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2015
Posts: 331
Posted: #9
Couldn't agree more Vegas 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2015
Posts: 145
Posted: #10
 bOl sir
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2013
Posts: 13606
Posted: #11
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2013
Posts: 3997
Posted: #12
On the other side. GL tonight 
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2014
Posts: 6446
Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by KingScorpio:

Pirates just swept a struggling Diamondback team without their best hitter in Lamb.Cubs are putting up runs and Pirates are sending out a pitcher that wouldn't even be in the starting rotation.


Jake Lamb is the best hitter on the Diamondbacks? Goldschmidt is and it's not even close. The diamondbacks aren't necessarily a struggling team... they just aren't a very good team. They will most likely win between 68 and 76 games.

Both teams (Cubs and Pirates) are putting up runs. Pirates have scored 50 runs over their last 10 games (5/game), while the Cubs have scored 51 (5.1/game).

If Worley isnt even a starter, then what does that say about the Cubs' offense? Worley held them to 1 unearned run over 5.2 innings less than a week ago. Hammel hasnt exactly looked great.

This game is about a coin flip, so why lay juice? Take the better team at plus money.

Good luck fellas!
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2014
Posts: 6446
Posted: #14
I will finalized my card here this afternoon, but I am going to bite on the Nationals line.

Stults is very hittable and doesn't miss many bats. He also has a hard time keeping the ball down. This Nationals' offense has been sputtering (they really need Rendon back), but I dont think they need to plate 5 runs to take this game.

The Braves can be pitched to and Fister is a guy who can do it. While his control has been spotty so far this year, he keeps the ball down and induces a good ratio of G/FB. The Braves are off to a good start, but this match-up clearly favors the Nationals. Today, the Nationals turn it around.

The under was tempting at first, but I cant play the under in a game where Stults is pitching. Any pitcher can pitch a gem when they take the ball, but he could give up 5 runs himself. Throw in a young and inexperienced Braves' bullpen and this game could see a lot of runs if things go wrong (from the Braves' side).

Washington Nationals (Fister) FG, -128 --- Risk 1.00% of Bankroll (5dimes)
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2014
Posts: 6446
Posted: #15
Monday's Card *** Updated ***

953 Washington Nationals (Fister) FG, -128 --- Risk 1.00% of Bankroll

957 Pittsburgh Pirates (V. Worley) FG, +120 --- Risk 1.00% of Bankroll

*973 Detroit Tigers (D. Price) FG, -152 --- Risk 1.00% of Bankroll

977 Houston (McHugh) / San Diego (Shields) Under 6.5 FG, -105 --- Risk 1.00% of Bankroll

* After getting blow out his last start, I am not overly surprised the price on Price came in a bit. However, this is a different day against a different team (he dominated once already) w/ out the inclement weather. I arrived at a line of about -175, after taking into account home field advantage, for Price and the Tigers in this match-up. This suggests ~4 percentage points of line value (in terms of probability).

I have stayed away from juice this season for the most part, but that wasn't necessarily by design. I have no qualms laying this kind of juice on a road team w/ this pitching and team match-up. My weighted average line (on wagers) was about -114 last season. This season I have been closer to even (i.e., far fewer juicy lines so far).
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2005
Posts: 23341
Posted: #16
Taking the biggest road fav everyday 16-7
8-2 last 10 days
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2005
Posts: 23341
Posted: #17
Sorry that should read 14-7 everyday
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2005
Posts: 23341
Posted: #18
Taking the biggest road fav everyday 14-7 +5.06 Units
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2005
Posts: 23341
Posted: #19
Fuc i'm a loser
Taking the biggest road fav everyday 14-7 +4.06 Units
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2014
Posts: 6446
Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by KingScorpio:

Fuc i'm a loser
Taking the biggest road fav everyday 14-7 +4.06 Units




yep - nothing wrong w/ taking road favorites (even at steep prices). There's a reason why teams are favored often times.

good luck tonight
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2010
Posts: 20468
Posted: #21
Good luck BOB
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2015
Posts: 1
Posted: #22
Sup BoB, long time follower. Like the plays today brother
I see potential value in the following:

TOR +133
NYY -133
MIA -121
MIL +105
HOU +111

any thoughts/insights you can provide would be much appreciated.
BOL TODAY!
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2015
Posts: 647
Posted: #23
Love Pitt and Tigers today GL
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2014
Posts: 6446
Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by lockpicksMLB:

Sup BoB, long time follower. Like the plays today brother
I see potential value in the following:

TOR +133
NYY -133
MIA -121
MIL +105
HOU +111

any thoughts/insights you can provide would be much appreciated.
BOL TODAY!


Toronto: they are not playing good baseball right now. Not sure if Bautista will be back, so I would prob layoff. If they win this game, they will probably need to score 4+ runs (Boston offense has been good). If you feel that is likely, then I would take the TT over on 4 runs (-105).

Yankees: I actually like Tampa in this game. Feels like a tossup game to me. Tampa is playing good baseball and Karnes kept it close vs. NYY last time they faced off.

Miami: I considered playing this game. I think the line is about where it should be. Could be worth a shot at that price, but I would like it better inside of -115.

Milwaukee: Marquis is a fade pitcher for me. Nice burst of offense from the Brewers yesterday (to blow my under by 1 run GRRR), but I am still concerned about their ability to score runs consistently. I would be reluctant to wager on them for a full game. I would be partial to F5. No way in heck I would take Cincy today.

Houston: I like dogs with low run totals. Though I took the under, I strongly considered taking Houston when the line opened at +123. McHugh is a stud. This line is probably close to where it needs to be as well. Padres bullpen>houston bullpen, IMO... so I would prefer F5 w/ McHugh over full game. I like this one the most of what you posted.


 
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2002
Posts: 66013
Posted: #25
Good luck BOB!
All Forums | MLB Betting
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Sports Betting
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
618,670
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2024 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.