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Bob's MLB Sunday *** 6.12.16 ***

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MLB 2016
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Summary
Record: 132-92-14 (59%)
Beginning Bankroll: $9,391
Avg. Wager Size: $108 (Unit = 1% of Bankroll)
Profit: +$3,509.22 (+37.37 Units), +13.59% Return on Risk

Splits
ML: 75-50 (60%)
F5: 2-4-2 (33%)
RL: 11-9-2 (55%)
O/U: 44-29-10 (60%)

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Performance History
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Overall
2016: 132-92-14 (59%), +13.59% Return on Risk
2015: 298-267-32 (53%), +6.46% Return on Risk
2014: 826-685-112 (55%), +4.13% Return on Risk

Picks of the Day
2016: 38-25-6 (60%), +17.16% Return on Risk
2015: 108-87-12 (55%), +14.17% Return on Risk
2014: 121-72-16 (63%), +16.60% Return on Risk

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Saturday
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3-1-1, +$278.30
https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=102286520

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Sunday
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Texas Rangers FG +103, Hamels/Miley

St. Louis Cardinals FG +105, Leake/Niese
 
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Cards for a sweep huh? Those sweeps are low percentage plays I've always thought.
 
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Get it BOB
 
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 BOL 

Curious what you see in the Cardinal game. I have it dead even and +105 is not much to play for.


Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Over here from the NHL forum to say Thank You
 
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Train keeps a rolling.  Rock on sir. 
~~~~~ZOSO~~~~~
 
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choo choo im in the ranger train as well, bol
 
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Sunday *** Final ***
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St. Louis Cardinals FG +105, Leake/Niese

Baltimore/Toronto Over 9 FG -110, Jimenez/Sanchez

Texas Rangers FG +103, Hamels/Miley

Detroit Tigers FG +113, Fulmer/Pineda

Los Angeles/San Francisco Over 4 F5 -130, Urias/Peavy
 
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Good luck BOB 
Keep on digging !!!
 
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Killer season, Bob! Keep it going! 
 
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BOL BoB 
 
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I have been insanely diligent tracking everything over the last few years. The obvious reason is to tie out account balances (i.e., make sure things are graded correctly). But, the main reason I do it is to better understand what I am doing well and what I am not doing well. You can always adjust your approach, but you will never know what needs to be fixed if you don't study it.

That being said... thought I would share

Some fun stats (2016)
  • Last 100 wagers: 64-31-5 (67.4%); 43-13 (76.8%) on sides during that stretch
  • Top 3 Sides (min. 5 picks): Baltimore (5-0, +101% RoR), Rangers (14-6, +54% RoR), and Giants (4-1-1, +46% RoR)
  • Worst 3 Sides (min. 5 picks): Mets (3-6, -32% RoR), Pittsburgh (3-3, -8% RoR), and Cleveland (6-5-1, -2% RoR)
  • Yet to place Side wager: Braves, Padres, and Yankees
  • AL vs. NL (ML & RL): NL (33-27); AL (56-35)
 
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Good luck BOB!
 
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bob 
 
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Quote Originally Posted by jrgumpert:

Cards for a sweep huh? Those sweeps are low percentage plays I've always thought.


Sweeps are low percentage plays... if you place a sweep wager at the beginning of the series. The probability of a series sweep goes up with each successive wins and converges to the probability of a win on the final game of the series (this is conditional probability).

Today is not a sweep play. It's a single game wager for the game played today. It just so happens that the Cardinals won the first two games of the series.


 
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Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:

 BOL 

Curious what you see in the Cardinal game. I have it dead even and +105 is not much to play for.




I see Cardinal red, blood in the water. In all seriousness, we have two teams that are starting to head in opposite directions.

Pirates
This will be their 22nd game in 22 days. They've dropped 9 of their last 13 These guys are ready to go home, crack open a beer, lament to themselves for an hour, and then pretend this last week didn't happen before they make the trip to NY to commence an important 6 game road trip (Mets/Cubs). Plus, morale is questionable following the loss of two important players in this series (Cervelli and Cole). Plus, Freese and Cutch are banged up.

Cardinals
Cardinals are 10-4 over the last 2 weeks. Peralta is back. Great production coming from the 1B platoon of Moss/Adams. Morale is high and these guys are really having fun and it shows. They know how important this game is vs. their division rival and I expect them to take advantage of their downed opponent.

Prior to making the "soft" adjustments I described above, I capped the game at -130 for the Cardinals. Being a Cardinals fan, I follow the NL Central teams closely and watch far more games than I am allowed to (darn wife and kids again)! From time to time, I will place a greater emphasis on these things.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by BirdsOnBat:

I have been insanely diligent tracking everything over the last few years. The obvious reason is to tie out account balances (i.e., make sure things are graded correctly). But, the main reason I do it is to better understand what I am doing well and what I am not doing well. You can always adjust your approach, but you will never know what needs to be fixed if you don't study it.

That being said... thought I would share

Some fun stats (2016)
  • Last 100 wagers: 64-31-5 (67.4%); 43-13 (76.8%) on sides during that stretch
  • Top 3 Sides (min. 5 picks): Baltimore (5-0, +101% RoR), Rangers (14-6, +54% RoR), and Giants (4-1-1, +46% RoR)
  • Worst 3 Sides (min. 5 picks): Mets (3-6, -32% RoR), Pittsburgh (3-3, -8% RoR), and Cleveland (6-5-1, -2% RoR)
  • Yet to place Side wager: Braves, Padres, and Yankees
  • AL vs. NL (ML & RL): NL (33-27); AL (56-35)

I've said it before. I learn more about handicapping MLB from your threads and from Key Element's threads than I ever learned in 10 years prior. Thanks for posting and sharing info. 
 
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Posted: #22
Get out he broom... I feel a sweep today! BOL and thanks for the picks!


 
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Unrelated to sports, but everyone should take a moment to pray for the loved ones of those who were gunned down in Orlando last night. Absolutely senseless act.


 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by BirdsOnBat:

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Sunday *** Final ***
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St. Louis Cardinals FG +105, Leake/Niese

Baltimore/Toronto Over 9 FG -110, Jimenez/Sanchez

Texas Rangers FG +103, Hamels/Miley

Detroit Tigers FG +113, Fulmer/Pineda

Los Angeles/San Francisco Over 4 F5 -130, Urias/Peavy

Love your Cardinal POD, Pirates pen is decimated after last two games.   Lets also ride the Rangers train again so we all get paid

The news out of Orlando is so sad.   My prayers go out to the families. 
 
 
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Great start bob. Nice over 
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