----------------------------------------------------------- Performance History ----------------------------------------------------------- Overall 2016: 123-85-12 (59%), +14.13% Return on Risk 2015: 298-267-32 (53%), +6.46% Return on Risk 2014: 826-685-112 (55%), +4.13% Return on Risk
Picks of the Day 2016: 35-24-4 (59%), +14.95% Return on Risk 2015: 108-87-12 (55%), +14.17% Return on Risk 2014: 121-72-16 (63%), +16.60% Return on Risk
Texas Rangers FG +101, Keuchel/Hamels To anyone who feels compelled, please save the playing the Rangers one too many times nonsense. I am not "riding" them. I am simply wagering on yet another mispriced Rangers game. I capped this game at -130 for the Rangers, which means I believe they win this match-up 56.5% of the time. At a line that implies a 49.75% probability of winning, the expected return on risk - for a play with this risk/reward tradeoff - is approximately 13.5%. So, yes… I am wagering on the Rangers again.
Boston Red Sox FG -116, Porcello/Suarez
There are a few others I am watching closely: A's +120, Marlins -125; Royals +122
----------------------------------------------------------- Performance History ----------------------------------------------------------- Overall 2016: 123-85-12 (59%), +14.13% Return on Risk 2015: 298-267-32 (53%), +6.46% Return on Risk 2014: 826-685-112 (55%), +4.13% Return on Risk
Picks of the Day 2016: 35-24-4 (59%), +14.95% Return on Risk 2015: 108-87-12 (55%), +14.17% Return on Risk 2014: 121-72-16 (63%), +16.60% Return on Risk
Texas Rangers FG +101, Keuchel/Hamels To anyone who feels compelled, please save the playing the Rangers one too many times nonsense. I am not "riding" them. I am simply wagering on yet another mispriced Rangers game. I capped this game at -130 for the Rangers, which means I believe they win this match-up 56.5% of the time. At a line that implies a 49.75% probability of winning, the expected return on risk - for a play with this risk/reward tradeoff - is approximately 13.5%. So, yes… I am wagering on the Rangers again.
Boston Red Sox FG -116, Porcello/Suarez
There are a few others I am watching closely: A's +120, Marlins -125; Royals +122
And for what it's worth, I have placed 17 side bets on the Rangers this season... 12-5 (70%) +55% Return on Risk, since most have been at + money.
I said it at the beginning of the season that there were 3 teams that would be overpriced based on last years' results: Astros, Dodgers, and Twins.
Rangers, Orioles, and Boston continue to offer great value with a high degree of regularity. Those three teams have made up about 26% of my side wagers.
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And for what it's worth, I have placed 17 side bets on the Rangers this season... 12-5 (70%) +55% Return on Risk, since most have been at + money.
I said it at the beginning of the season that there were 3 teams that would be overpriced based on last years' results: Astros, Dodgers, and Twins.
Rangers, Orioles, and Boston continue to offer great value with a high degree of regularity. Those three teams have made up about 26% of my side wagers.
Don't blame you for riding Texas. They own Houston and are getting all the breaks right now. That game should have gone to extra innings last night. But, Correa double clutched that double play ball.
Looking at the Royals myself. It's tempting, but that team is finding ways to lose recently. Ventura owns Baltimore and Jimenez stinks. But, the offense can't score right now. Even if Ventura pitches well, are they going to score some runs?
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Don't blame you for riding Texas. They own Houston and are getting all the breaks right now. That game should have gone to extra innings last night. But, Correa double clutched that double play ball.
Looking at the Royals myself. It's tempting, but that team is finding ways to lose recently. Ventura owns Baltimore and Jimenez stinks. But, the offense can't score right now. Even if Ventura pitches well, are they going to score some runs?
FYI: Ventura is no #1 starter (5/6, 5/6) and his offense has produced 2 earned runs in their last 27.1 innings versus righty (0.66 per 9). Just sayin.......
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
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FYI: Ventura is no #1 starter (5/6, 5/6) and his offense has produced 2 earned runs in their last 27.1 innings versus righty (0.66 per 9). Just sayin.......
----------------------------------------------------------- Performance History ----------------------------------------------------------- Overall 2016: 123-85-12 (59%), +14.13% Return on Risk 2015: 298-267-32 (53%), +6.46% Return on Risk 2014: 826-685-112 (55%), +4.13% Return on Risk
Picks of the Day 2016: 35-24-4 (59%), +14.95% Return on Risk 2015: 108-87-12 (55%), +14.17% Return on Risk 2014: 121-72-16 (63%), +16.60% Return on Risk
Texas Rangers FG +101, Keuchel/Hamels To anyone who feels compelled, please save the playing the Rangers one too many times nonsense. I am not "riding" them. I am simply wagering on yet another mispriced Rangers game. I capped this game at -130 for the Rangers, which means I believe they win this match-up 56.5% of the time. At a line that implies a 49.75% probability of winning, the expected return on risk - for a play with this risk/reward tradeoff - is approximately 13.5%. So, yes… I am wagering on the Rangers again.
Boston Red Sox FG -116, Porcello/Suarez
There are a few others I am watching closely: A's +120, Marlins -125; Royals +122
----------------------------------------------------------- Performance History ----------------------------------------------------------- Overall 2016: 123-85-12 (59%), +14.13% Return on Risk 2015: 298-267-32 (53%), +6.46% Return on Risk 2014: 826-685-112 (55%), +4.13% Return on Risk
Picks of the Day 2016: 35-24-4 (59%), +14.95% Return on Risk 2015: 108-87-12 (55%), +14.17% Return on Risk 2014: 121-72-16 (63%), +16.60% Return on Risk
Texas Rangers FG +101, Keuchel/Hamels To anyone who feels compelled, please save the playing the Rangers one too many times nonsense. I am not "riding" them. I am simply wagering on yet another mispriced Rangers game. I capped this game at -130 for the Rangers, which means I believe they win this match-up 56.5% of the time. At a line that implies a 49.75% probability of winning, the expected return on risk - for a play with this risk/reward tradeoff - is approximately 13.5%. So, yes… I am wagering on the Rangers again.
Boston Red Sox FG -116, Porcello/Suarez
There are a few others I am watching closely: A's +120, Marlins -125; Royals +122
FYI: Ventura is no #1 starter (5/6, 5/6) and his offense has produced 2 earned runs in their last 27.1 innings versus righty (0.66 per 9). Just sayin.......
Yeah, I looked more closely first thing this AM and decided to pass. Can't trust the offense right now... even with Jimenez on the mound!
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Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:
FYI: Ventura is no #1 starter (5/6, 5/6) and his offense has produced 2 earned runs in their last 27.1 innings versus righty (0.66 per 9). Just sayin.......
Yeah, I looked more closely first thing this AM and decided to pass. Can't trust the offense right now... even with Jimenez on the mound!
Betting it screwed me over last night however with Anderson vs. Miley on mound tonight and B. Welke behind the plate as Blue, I'll bet good $$$ this is an easy over.
In his 9 games behind plate this year he's 8-1 on the over (and in easy fashion). His average game total is 10 runs.
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Loving that over in Seattle.
Betting it screwed me over last night however with Anderson vs. Miley on mound tonight and B. Welke behind the plate as Blue, I'll bet good $$$ this is an easy over.
In his 9 games behind plate this year he's 8-1 on the over (and in easy fashion). His average game total is 10 runs.
You got away with got away with it last night but your beloved rangers go down tonight! Go Stros!!!
From my original post:
"I capped this game at -130 for the Rangers, which means I believe they win this match-up 56.5% of the time."
Basically, that means my numbers say the Astros win this matchup 43.5% of the time. Close to 4 out of every 9 times. Not exactly a low probability event, and losing this bet wouldn't shock me at all. It's to be expected to a large degree.
I cannot emphasize this enough. I don't look at the board every day and play who I feel has the highest probability of winning. That's not the way "investing" in MLB lines works. If that was the strategy, they I would play all chalk - save for false positives (like the Rangers today - day in and day out.
The goal is to find lines where I feel the odds are mispriced. Over the long run, that is the only way you make money wagering on game.The sooner you come to this realization as a bettor then better off you'll be.
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Quote Originally Posted by Targa1:
You got away with got away with it last night but your beloved rangers go down tonight! Go Stros!!!
From my original post:
"I capped this game at -130 for the Rangers, which means I believe they win this match-up 56.5% of the time."
Basically, that means my numbers say the Astros win this matchup 43.5% of the time. Close to 4 out of every 9 times. Not exactly a low probability event, and losing this bet wouldn't shock me at all. It's to be expected to a large degree.
I cannot emphasize this enough. I don't look at the board every day and play who I feel has the highest probability of winning. That's not the way "investing" in MLB lines works. If that was the strategy, they I would play all chalk - save for false positives (like the Rangers today - day in and day out.
The goal is to find lines where I feel the odds are mispriced. Over the long run, that is the only way you make money wagering on game.The sooner you come to this realization as a bettor then better off you'll be.
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